ON INFORMATION THEORY METHOD FOR RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF SYSTEMS CONSISTING OF DIFFERENT SUCCESS FAILURE MODEL UNITS

Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synthesis) on the systems consisting of different success failure model units. According to the fundamental method of the unit reliability assessment, the general models of system reliability approximate lower limits are given. Finally, this paper analyses the application of the assessment method by examples, the assessment results are neither conservative nor radical and very satisfactory. The assessment method can be popularized to the systems which have fixed reliability structural models.

Impact failure models and application condition of trees in debris-flow hazard mitigation

Forestry has played an important role in hazard mitigation associated with debris flows.Most forest mitigation measures refer to the experience of soil and water conservation,which disregard the destructive effect of debris flows,causing potentially serious consequences.Determination of the effect of a forest on reducing debris-flow velocity and even stopping debris flows requires distinguishing between when the debris flow will destroy the forest and when the trees will withstand the debris-flow impact force.In this paper,we summarized two impact failure models of a single tree: stem breakage and overturning.The influences of different tree sizes characteristics(stem base diameter,tree weight,and root failure radius) and debris-flow characteristics(density,velocity,flow depth,and boulder diameter) on tree failure were analyzed.The observations obtained from the model adopted in this study show that trees are more prone to stem breakage than overturning.With an increase in tree size,the ability to resist stem breakage and overturning increases.Debris-flow density influences the critical failure conditions of trees substantially less than the debrisflow velocity,depth,and boulder diameter.The application conditions of forests in debris-flow hazard mitigation were proposed based on the analysis of the model results.The proposed models were applied in the Xiajijiehaizi Gully as a case study,and the results explain the destruction of trees in the forest dispersing zone.This work provides references for implementing forest measures for debris-flow hazard mitigation.

Brittleness Generation Mechanism and Failure Model of High Strength Lightweight Aggregate Concrete

The brittleness generation mechanism of high strength lightweight aggregate con-crete(HSLWAC) was presented, and it was indicated that lightweight aggregate was the vulnerable spot, initiating brittleness. Based on the analysis of the brittleness failure by the load-deflection curve, the brittleness presented by HSLWAC was more prominent compared with ordinary lightweight aggregate concrete of the same strength grade. The model of brittleness failure was also established.

Improving Auditors＇ Going Concern Judgment by Applying Statistical Failure Models as an Analytical Procedure

The main goal of this research is to enhance the auditor＇s judgment ability in going concern opinion by applying bankruptcy prediction models as an analytical procedure. Data for this research have been collected through questionnaires. The statistical population consists of auditors who are members of Iranian Association of Certified Public Accountants （IACPA）. The research results reflect that： （1） Auditors do not use statistical techniques for assessing going concern as an analytical procedure; （2） Auditors do not use these techniques as a tool to decrease the bias of judgments in assessing the going concern assumption; （3） Auditors do not use statistical techniques to assess audit risk in the planning stage; （4） Auditors do not use statistical techniques to assess audit risk in the final stage. Furthermore this research shows that auditors believe that the ＂standard concerning usage of analytical procedures needs more clarification＂ and ＂statistical bankruptcy predication models can help auditors in the planning stage＂. The other goal of this research is to show different auditor＇s judgments in assessing the going concern opinion with and without applying the bankruptcy prediction models as an analytical procedure. The result shows that the judgment of auditors toward the going concern assumption has improved by using statistical bankruptcy predication models.

Unified method for typical gear failure modeling and stiffness calculation based on the matrix equation

The failure types in gear systems vary,with typical ones mainly including pitting,cracking,wear,and broken teeth.Different modeling and stiffness calculation methods have been developed for various gear failure types.A unified method for typical gear failure modeling and stiffness calculation is introduced in this study by considering the deviations in the time-varying meshing stiffness(TVMS)of faulty gears resulting from the use of different methods.Specifically,a gear tooth is discretized into a large number of microelements expressed with a matrix,and unified models of typical gear failures are built by adjusting the values of the matrix microelements.The values and positions of the microelements in the tooth failure model matrix have the same physical meaning as the parameter variables in the potential energy method(PEM),so the matrix-based failure model can be perfectly matched with PEM.Afterward,a unified method for TVMS is established.Modeling of healthy and faulty gears with pitting,wear,crack,and broken tooth is performed with the matrix equation,and the corresponding TVMS values are calculated by incorporating the matrix models with PEM.On the basis of the results,the mechanism of typical fault types that affect TVMS is analyzed,and the conclusions are verified through the finite element method.The developed unified method is a promising technique for studying the dynamic response characteristics of gear systems with different failure types because of its superiority in eliminating stiffness deviations.

Storage reliability assessment model based on competition failure of multi-components in missile

The degradation data of multi-components in missile is derived by periodical testing. How to use these data to assess the storage reliability (SR) of the whole missile is a difficult problem in current research. An SR assessment model based on competition failure of multi-components in missile is proposed. By analyzing the missile life profile and its storage failure feature, the key components in missile are obtained and the characteristics voltage is assumed to be its key performance parameter. When the voltage testing data of key components in missile are available, a state space model (SSM) is applied to obtain the whole missile degradation state, which is defined as the missile degradation degree (DD). A Wiener process with the time-scale model (TSM) is applied to build the degradation failure model with individual variability and nonlinearity. The Weibull distribution and proportional risk model are applied to build an outburst failure model with performance degradation effect. Furthermore, a competition failure model with the correlation between degradation failure and outburst failure is proposed. A numerical example with a set of missiles in storage is analyzed to demonstrate the accuracy and superiority of the proposed model.

New Unified Failure Model on Evenly Distributed Reinforced Concrete Members with Box Section

It is urgently needed to describe the structural collapse process under extreme conditions to survive people.For reinforced concrete structures it is still a difficulty to describe the failure of reinforced concrete members under complex internal force combination,such as under axial forces,bending moment,shear forces, and torsion working together.In this paper,based on the traditional Nielsen model,a new unified failure model on reinforcement evenly distributed concrete members with box section under combined forces is introduced.The advantages of the proposed new model are to consider the dowel actions of reinforcements and reasonably to consider of the shear carrying capacity of concrete,especially when compression stress of concrete is in a high value.Finally,the theoretical results of the new model are compared with a series of experimental results of box section members.The comparison has verified that the new model is more accurate and feasible for the design and calculation of box section members.

A damage-coupled multi-axial time-dependent low cycle fatigue failure model for SS304 stainless steel at high temperature

Based on the time-dependent strain cyclic characteristics and fatigue behaviors of SS304 stainless steel under multi-axial cyclic loading at 700 ？ C, and in the frame of unified visoco-plastic cyclic constitutive model and continuum damage mechanics theory, the damage-coupled multi-axial time-dependent constitutive model and fatigue failure model were proposed. In the model, the evolution equation of damage was introduced in and the time-dependent effects, e.g. holding time, loading rate, were taken into account. The model was applied to the simulation of whole-life cyclic deformation behaviors and prediction of LCF life for SS304 stainless steel in multiaxial time-dependent low cycle fatigue tests. It is shown that the simulated results agree well with experimental ones.

Advanced Unified Failure Model on Uniformly Reinforced Concrete Box Section Members

Based on the traditional Nielsen model,a unified failure model on the uniformly reinforced concrete box section members under combined forces was introduced by Luo and Liu.One of their contributions is adjustment of the shear carrying capacity of concrete at the member failure surface.In the unified failure model,the comparison with the experimental results verified this adjustment.Nevertheless,it should be pointed out that the adjustment factor of shear carrying capacity at member failure surface for the reinforced concrete members in the unified failure model is a fixed adjustment constant for all experiment data,which is basically determined by curve fitting.However,the adjustment factor should vary with the normal stress at the member failure surface.In this paper,an advanced theoretical model is introduced,in which the adjustment factor of shear carrying capacity at failure surface is a variable related to the normal stress at failure surface.Furthermore,the advanced unified failure model on the uniformly reinforced concrete box section member can still be expressed in a simple form.Finally,the comparison with several groups of test data has verified that this advanced model is more accurate and feasible to be used in design.

Three-dimensional limit variation analysis on the ultimate pullout capacity of the anchor cables based on the Hoek-Brown failure criterion

Only simplified two-dimensional model and a single failure mode are adopted to calculate the ultimate pullout capacity(UPC)of anchor cables in most previous research.This study focuses on a more comprehensive combination failure mode that consists of bond failure of an anchorage body and failure of an anchored rock mass.The three-dimensional ultimate pullout capacity of the anchor cables is calculated based on the Hoek-Brown failure criterion and variation analysis method.The numerical solution for the curvilinear function in fracture plane is obtained based on the finite difference theory,which more accurately reflects the failure state of the anchor cable,as opposed to that being assumed in advance.The results reveal that relying solely on a single failure mode for UPC calculations has limitations,as changes in parameter values not only directly impact the UPC value but also can alter the failure model and thus the calculation method.

Test selection and optimization for PHM based on failure evolution mechanism model

The test selection and optimization （TSO） can improve the abilities of fault diagnosis, prognosis and health-state evalua- tion for prognostics and health management （PHM） systems. Traditionally, TSO mainly focuses on fault detection and isolation, but they cannot provide an effective guide for the design for testability （DFT） to improve the PHM performance level. To solve the problem, a model of TSO for PHM systems is proposed. Firstly, through integrating the characteristics of fault severity and propa- gation time, and analyzing the test timing and sensitivity, a testability model based on failure evolution mechanism model （FEMM） for PHM systems is built up. This model describes the fault evolution- test dependency using the fault-symptom parameter matrix and symptom parameter-test matrix. Secondly, a novel method of in- herent testability analysis for PHM systems is developed based on the above information. Having completed the analysis, a TSO model, whose objective is to maximize fault trackability and mini- mize the test cost, is proposed through inherent testability analysis results, and an adaptive simulated annealing genetic algorithm （ASAGA） is introduced to solve the TSO problem. Finally, a case of a centrifugal pump system is used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed models and methods. The results show that the proposed technology is important for PHM systems to select and optimize the test set in order to improve their performance level.

Numerical modeling of failure mechanisms in phyllite mine slopes in Brazil

This paper presents three case studies comprising failure mechanisms in phyllite mine slopes at Quadrila- tero Ferrifero, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Numerical modeling techniques were used in this study. Fail- ure mechanisms involving discontinuities sub parallel to the main foliation are very common in these mines. Besides, failure through the rock material has also been observed due to the low strength of phyl- lites in this site. Results of this work permitted to establish unknown geotechnical parameters which have significant influence in failure processes, like the in situ stress field and the discontinuity stiffness.

Failure Prediction Modeling of Lithium Ion Battery toward Distributed Parameter Estimation

Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electrochemical energy storage system. A novel failure prediction modeling method of lithium ion battery based on distributed parameter estimation and single particle model is proposed in this work. Lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery is an unmeasurable distributed variable. Failure prediction system can estimate lithium ion concentration online, track the failure residual which is the difference between the estimated value and the ideal value. The precaution signal will be triggered when the failure residual is beyond the predefined failure precaution threshold, and the failure countdown prediction module will be activated. The remaining time of the severe failure threshold can be estimated by the failure countdown prediction module according to the changing rate of the failure residual. A simulation example verifies that lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery can be estimated exactly and effectively by the failure prediction model. The precaution signal can be triggered reliably, and the remaining time of the severe failure can be forecasted accurately by the failure countdown prediction module.

Concave Group Selection of Nonparameter Additive Accelerated Failure Time Model

In this paper, we have studied the nonparameter accelerated failure time (AFT) additive regression model, whose covariates have a nonparametric effect on high-dimensional censored data. We give the asymptotic property of the penalty estimator based on GMCP in the nonparameter AFT model.

A FUZZY MODEL FOR THE FAILURE OF COMPOSITE STRUCTURES

In this paper, the fuzzy theory is used to describe the uncertainty in failure definition of composite structures. The concept of structural failure level (SFL) is suggested and a method of evaluation is presented.

Correlation failure analysis of an uncertain hysteretic vibration system

In this paper, a numerical method for correlation sensitivity analysis of a nonlinear random vibration system is presented. Based on the first passage failure model, the probability perturbation method is employed to determine the statistical characteristics of failure modes and the correlation between them. The sensitivity of correlation between failure modes with respect to random parameters characterizing the uncertainty of the hysteretic loop is discussed. In a numerical example, a two-DOF shear structure with uncertain hysteretic restoring force is considered. The statistical characteristics of response, failure modes and the sensitivity of random hysteretic loop parameters are provided, and also compared with a Monte Carlo simulation.

Numerical simulation study of the failure evolution process and failure mode of surrounding rock in deep soft rock roadways

Based on the safety coefficient method,which assigns rock failure criteria to calculate the rock mass unit,the safety coefficient contour of surrounding rock is plotted to judge the distribution form of the fractured zone in the roadway.This will provide the basis numerical simulation to calculate the surrounding rock fractured zone in a roadway.Using the single factor and multi-factor orthogonal test method,the evolution law of roadway surrounding rock displacements,plastic zone and stress distribution under different conditions is studied.It reveals the roadway surrounding rock burst evolution process,and obtains five kinds of failure modes in deep soft rock roadway.Using the fuzzy mathematics clustering analysis method,the deep soft surrounding rock failure model in Zhujixi mine can be classified and patterns recognized.Compared to the identification results and the results detected by geological radar of surrounding rock loose circle,the reliability of the results of the pattern recognition is verified and lays the foundations for the support design of deep soft rock roadways.

Robustness of community networks against cascading failures with heterogeneous redistribution strategies

Network robustness is one of the core contents of complex network security research.This paper focuses on the robustness of community networks with respect to cascading failures,considering the nodes influence and community heterogeneity.A novel node influence ranking method,community-based Clustering-LeaderRank(CCL)algorithm,is first proposed to identify influential nodes in community networks.Simulation results show that the CCL method can effectively identify the influence of nodes.Based on node influence,a new cascading failure model with heterogeneous redistribution strategy is proposed to describe and analyze node fault propagation in community networks.Analytical and numerical simulation results on cascading failure show that the community attribute has an important influence on the cascading failure process.The network robustness against cascading failures increases when the load is more distributed to neighbors of the same community instead of different communities.When the initial load distribution and the load redistribution strategy based on the node influence are the same,the network shows better robustness against node failure.

The temperature-dependent fracture strength model for ultra-high temperature ceramics

Breaking down the entire structure of a material implies severing all the bonds between its atoms either by applying work or by heat transfer. Because bond-breaking is indifferent to either means, there is a kind of equivalence between heat energy and strain energy. Based on this equivalence, we assume the existence of a constant maximum storage of energy that includes both the strain energy and the corresponding equivalent heat energy. A temperaturedependent fracture strength model is then developed for ultrahigh temperature ceramics （UHTCs）. Model predictions for UHTCs, HfB2, TiC and ZrB2, are presented and compared with the experimental results. These predictions are found to be largely consistent with experimental results.

Creep Modeling of Magnesia-chromite Bricks in a RH Snorkel During a Process Cycle

In this paper both experimental and analytical approaches to provide the inputs for creep modeling of refractories including a newly developed high temperature compressive creep machine and an inverse estimation procedure of creep law parameters are briefly introduced.Besides,a modified shear test is applied to determine the cohesion and friction angle of refractories under shear state. A RH snorkel equipped with magnesia- chromite bricks is chosen for a case study of thermomechanical simulation applying the classical creep model and Drucker-Prager creep model available in the finite element code ABAQUS,respectively. Afterwards,thermal stresses and joint opening of magnesia- chromite bricks during a process cycle are compared to distinguish the impact of these two creep models.