GIS-Based Identification of Flood Risk Zone in a Rural Municipality Using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process(FAHP)

Risk assessment is vital for humanities,especially in assessing natural and manmade hazards.Romblon,an archipelagic province in the Philippines,faces frequent typhoons and heavy rainfall,resulting in floods,with the Municipality of Santa Fe being particularly vulnerable to its severe damage.Thus,this research study intends to evaluate the flood risk of Santa Fe spatially using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP),taking into account data sourced fromvarious government agencies and online databases.GIS was utilized tomap flood-prone areas in the municipality.Hazard assessment factors included average annual rainfall,elevation,slope,soil type,and flood height.Distance to river,distance to road,types of building structure,mean age,gender ratio,and average annual incomewere considered parameters of vulnerability assessment.Exposure assessment considered land use,distance to evacuation facility,household number,and population density.Weights for each parameter were determined through pairwise comparison performed by experts.These weights were then incorporated into risk assessment estimation.The developed risk map identifies five high-risk barangays(small local government units).The study’s findings will enable local government units to establish flood mitigation programs,implement targeted mitigation measures,and formulate strategic response plans to lower risk and safeguard the residents of Santa Fe effectively.

Spatial diversion and coordination of flood water for an urban flood control project in Suzhou, China

Suzhou City,located in the Yangtze River Delta in China,is prone to flooding due to a complex combination of natural factors,including its monsoon climate,low elevation,and tidally influenced position,as well as intensive human activities.The Large Encirclement Flood Control Project(LEFCP)was launched to cope with serious floods in the urban area.This project changed the spatiotemporal pattern of flood processes and caused spatial diversion of floods from the urban area to the outskirts of the city.Therefore,this study developed a distributed flood simulation model in order to understand this transition of flood processes.The results revealed that the LEFCP effectively protected the urban areas from floods,but the present scheduling schemes resulted in the spatial diversion of floods to the outskirts of the city.With rainstorm frequencies of 10.0%to 0.5%,the water level differences between two representative water level stations(Miduqiao(MDQ)and Fengqiao(FQ))located inside and outside the LEFCP area,ranged from 0.75 m to 0.24 m and from 1.80 m to 1.58 m,respectively.In addition,the flood safety margin at MDQ and the duration with the water level exceeding the warning water level at FQ ranged from 0.95 m to 0.43 m and from 4 h to 22 h,respectively.Rational scheduling schemes for the hydraulic facilities of the LEFCP in extreme precipitation cases were developed ac-cording to food simulations under seven scheduling scenarios.This helps to regulate the spatial flood diversion caused by the LEFCP during extreme precipitation.

基于SWMM和LISFLOOD-FP的城市内涝耦合模型研究

以柳州市箭盘山流域为例,构建SWMM一维管道模型与LISFLOOD-FP二维地面模型并将其耦合,基于实测降雨“20180818”24 h暴雨资料,将得到的暴雨内涝淹没水深和淹没面积与该场次降雨情况下记录淹没点的范围相比较,验证耦合模型具有较好的适用性。进而基于耦合模型,对柳州市箭盘山流域2、5、10、20年一遇下设计降雨进行模拟,得到不同重现期下研究区的溢流节点、淹没水深和淹没面积,并于ARCGIS平台将结果可视化。结果表明,重现期由2年上升到20年过程中,溢流节点比例从9.03%增加至25.99%,溢流面积从0.473 km^(2)增加至2.114 km^(2);重点淹没区域分布在屏山大道、炮团路、西江路和东堤路。

基于MIKE FLOOD模型的平原水网地区内涝治理效果模拟研究

为科学评估平原水网地区内涝治理效果,以昆山市淀山湖镇为研究对象,基于MIKE FLOOD模型,耦合一维河网、二维地形和一维管网模拟了平原水网地区城镇内涝情况。采用实测降雨数据对模型进行了率定和验证,并模拟了2年一遇、5年一遇、10年一遇和20年一遇4种重现期降雨条件下现状和治理后的最大淹没水深。模拟结果表明:20年一遇降雨条件下内涝范围变化明显,其余3种重现期降雨条件下内涝范围变化不明显;对于降雨重现期较小条件下的城市内涝治理,应优先考虑管网改造,而针对短历时的强暴雨事件,应优先考虑海绵城市设施建设改造;为了应对不同重现期、短历时降雨造成的城市内涝风险,应在管网改造的基础上配合海绵城市设施建设改造。

Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

Experimental study of the effects of a multistage pore-throat structure on the seepage characteristics of sandstones in the Beibuwan Basin:Insights into the flooding mode

To investigate the relationship between grain sizes, seepage capacity, and oil-displacement efficiency in the Liushagang Formation of the Beibuwan Basin, this study identifies the multistage pore-throat structure as a crucial factor through a comparison of oil displacement in microscopic pore-throat experiments. The two-phase flow evaluation method based on the Li-Horne model is utilized to effectively characterize and quantify the seepage characteristics of different reservoirs, closely relating them to the distribution of microscopic pores and throats. It is observed that conglomerate sandstones at different stages exhibit significant heterogeneity and noticeable differences in seepage capacity, highlighting the crucial role played by certain large pore throats in determining seepage capacity and oil displacement efficiency. Furthermore, it was found that the displacement effects of conglomeratic sandstones with strong heterogeneity were inferior to those of conventional homogeneous sandstone, as evidenced by multiple displacement experiments conducted on core samples with varying granularities and flooding systems. Subsequently, core-based experiments on associated gas flooding after water flooding were conducted to address the challenge of achieving satisfactory results in a single displacement mode for reservoirs with significant heterogeneity. The results indicate that the oil recovery rates for associated gas flooding after water flooding increased by 7.3%-16.4% compared with water flooding alone at a gas-oil ratio of approximately 7000 m^(3)/m^(3). Therefore, considering the advantages of gas flooding in terms of seepage capacity, oil exchange ratio, and the potential for two-phase production, gas flooding is recommended as an energy supplement mode for homogeneous reservoirs in the presence of sufficient gas source and appropriate tectonic angle. On the other hand, associated gas flooding after water flooding is suggested to achieve a more favorable development effect compared to a single mode of energy supplementation for strongly heterogeneous sandstone reservoirs.

Mapping of Flood Risk Zones Using Multi-Criteria Approach and Radar a Case Study of Ala and Akure-Ofosu Communities, Ondo State, Nigeria

Floods are among the worst natural catastrophes, devastating homes, businesses, public buildings, farms, and crops. Studies show that it’s not the flood itself that’s deadly but people’s vulnerability. This study investigates the Ala and Akure-Ofosu flood-prone zones;identifies elements that cause flooding in the study area;classifies each criterion by its effect;develops a flood risk map;estimates flood damage using Sentinel-1A SAR data;compares AHP results. Literature study and GIS-computer database georeferenced fieldwork data. Photos from the 2020 Sentinel 2A satellite have been organized. Built-up area, cropland, rock, the body of water, and forest Land use and cover, slope, rainfall, soil, Euclidean River Distance, and flow accumulation were mapped. These variables were integrated into a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) using GIS tools, resulting in the creation of a flood risk map that categorizes the region into five risk zones: 5% of the area is identified as high-risk, 21% as low-risk, and 74% as moderate-risk. Copernicus SAR data from before and after the flood were processed on Google Earth Engine to map flood extent and ensured that the MCA map accurately reflected flood-prone areas. Periodic review, real-time flood susceptibility monitoring, early warning, and quick damage assessment are suggested to avoid flood danger and other environmental problems.

Rapid urban flood forecasting based on cellular automata and deep learning

[Objective]Urban floods are occurring more frequently because of global climate change and urbanization.Accordingly,urban rainstorm and flood forecasting has become a priority in urban hydrology research.However,two-dimensional hydrodynamic models execute calculations slowly,hindering the rapid simulation and forecasting of urban floods.To overcome this limitation and accelerate the speed and improve the accuracy of urban flood simulations and forecasting,numerical simulations and deep learning were combined to develop a more effective urban flood forecasting method.[Methods]Specifically,a cellular automata model was used to simulate the urban flood process and address the need to include a large number of datasets in the deep learning process.Meanwhile,to shorten the time required for urban flood forecasting,a convolutional neural network model was used to establish the mapping relationship between rainfall and inundation depth.[Results]The results show that the relative error of forecasting the maximum inundation depth in flood-prone locations is less than 10%,and the Nash efficiency coefficient of forecasting inundation depth series in flood-prone locations is greater than 0.75.[Conclusion]The result demonstrated that the proposed method could execute highly accurate simulations and quickly produce forecasts,illustrating its superiority as an urban flood forecasting technique.

基于MIKE FLOOD耦合模型模拟的城市内涝对道路安全风险的影响评估

城市内涝风险评估对预防洪涝灾害有重要作用,但现有研究很少针对道路安全风险评估。以重庆市秀山县为研究对象,通过构建MIKE FLOOD耦合模型对道路安全风险进行评估。结果表明:地面积水深度主要集中在0.05~0.15 m,不同重现期(P=1%~20%)降雨下的水深在空间分布上大体呈一致状态,积水时间主要集中在60~90 min,积水流速主要大于0.8 m/s。其中,老城区部分区域的基础设施安全风险以极高风险(水深>0.4 m)为主,其余区域为轻微风险(水深<0.5 m)为主,而行人安全风险以Ⅲ级(危险性指数1.25~2)为主,其余区域则以Ⅰ级(危险性指数<0.75)为主。大部分路段的交通运行状况以畅通等级(保留系数>0.7)为主,但部分路段遇暴雨时中断(保留系数=0)。研究结果可为城市内涝发生前的交通管控和通行预警提供科学依据。

Flood Velocity Prediction Using Deep Learning Approach

Floods are one of the most serious natural disasters that can cause huge societal and economic losses.Extensive research has been conducted on topics like flood monitoring,prediction,and loss estimation.In these research fields,flood velocity plays a crucial role and is an important factor that influences the reliability of the outcomes.Traditional methods rely on physical models for flood simulation and prediction and could generate accurate results but often take a long time.Deep learning technology has recently shown significant potential in the same field,especially in terms of efficiency,helping to overcome the time-consuming associated with traditional methods.This study explores the potential of deep learning models in predicting flood velocity.More specifically,we use a Multi-Layer Perceptron(MLP)model,a specific type of Artificial Neural Networks(ANNs),to predict the velocity in the test area of the Lundesokna River in Norway with diverse terrain conditions.Geographic data and flood velocity simulated based on the physical hydraulic model are used in the study for the pre-training,optimization,and testing of the MLP model.Our experiment indicates that the MLP model has the potential to predict flood velocity in diverse terrain conditions of the river with acceptable accuracy against simulated velocity results but with a significant decrease in training time and testing time.Meanwhile,we discuss the limitations for the improvement in future work.

Real-time Rescue Target Detection Based on UAV Imagery for Flood Emergency Response

Timely acquisition of rescue target information is critical for emergency response after a flood disaster.Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs)equipped with remote sensing capabilities offer distinct advantages,including high-resolution imagery and exceptional mobility,making them well suited for monitoring flood extent and identifying rescue targets during floods.However,there are some challenges in interpreting rescue information in real time from flood images captured by UAVs,such as the complexity of the scenarios of UAV images,the lack of flood rescue target detection datasets and the limited real-time processing capabilities of the airborne on-board platform.Thus,we propose a real-time rescue target detection method for UAVs that is capable of efficiently delineating flood extent and identifying rescue targets(i.e.,pedestrians and vehicles trapped by floods).The proposed method achieves real-time rescue information extraction for UAV platforms by lightweight processing and fusion of flood extent extraction model and target detection model.The flood inundation range is extracted by the proposed method in real time and detects targets such as people and vehicles to be rescued based on this layer.Our experimental results demonstrate that the Intersection over Union(IoU)for flood water extraction reaches an impressive 80%,and the IoU for real-time flood water extraction stands at a commendable 76.4%.The information on flood stricken targets extracted by this method in real time can be used for flood emergency rescue.

基于FloodArea模型的呼和浩特市城区大青山南麓山洪致灾临界面雨量研究

以呼和浩特市城区北部大青山南麓山洪沟流域为研究区域,利用流域内气象观测站逐小时降水数据、数字高程模型数据、土地利用数据等资料,针对1998年7月12日和2020年8月1日暴雨时段,采用FloodArea淹没模型进行洪水动态淹没模拟。结果表明:1998年7月12日暴雨过程的FloodArea水动力模型模拟结果与实际情况较为吻合,且9条山洪沟的洪水淹没深度与累计9 h滑动面雨量的相关程度最高,构建了面雨量与淹没深度的回归关系方程,基于隐患点3个风险等级,确定了不同等级下的临界面雨量,以红山口沟为例,分别为69.9 mm(1级)、39.3 mm(2级)、17.2 mm(3级)。2020年8月1日暴雨过程的模型模拟结果基本与山洪过程一致。

Field based index of flood vulnerability (IFV): A new validation technique for flood susceptible models

The flood hazard management is one of the major challenges in the floodplain regions worldwide.With the rise in population growth and the spread of infrastructural development,the level of risk has increased over time.Therefore,the prediction of flood susceptible area is a key challenge for the adoption of management plans.Flood susceptibility modeling is technically a common work,but it is still a very tough job to validate flood susceptible models in a very rigorous and scientific manner.Therefore,the present work in the Atreyee River Basin of India and Bangladesh was planned to establish artificial neural network(ANN),radial basis function(RBF),random forest(RF)and their ensemble-based flood susceptibility models.The flood susceptible models were constructed based on nine flood conditioning parameters.The flood susceptibility models were validated in a conventional way using the receiver operating curve(ROC).To validate the flood-susceptible models,a two dimensional(2D)hydraulic flood simulation model was developed.Also,the index of flood vulnerability model was developed and applied for validating the flood susceptible models,which was a very unique way to validate the predictive models.Friedman test and Wilcoxon Signed rank test were employed to compare the generated flood susceptible models.Results showed that 11.95%-12.99%of the entire basin area(10188.4 km^(2))comes under very high flood-susceptible zones.Accuracy evaluation results have shown that the performance of ensemble flood susceptible models outperforms other standalone machine learning models.The flood simulation model and IFV model were also spatially adjusted with the flood susceptibility models.Therefore,the present study recommended for the ensemble flood susceptibility prediction and IFV based validation along with conventional ways.

关于针对DDoS中Flood攻击的防御系统的研究

本文主要针对DDoS中的Flood攻击的攻击特点,提出一种防御系统的结构,能够满足对不同Flood攻击检测的简易性、有效性的要求,并且与网络的地理位置、拓扑结构规模无关。该系统主要划分为检测攻击和确定攻击目标两个阶段。检测攻击阶段根据时攻击特征有较好描述性的源地址、目标地址、TCP报文的标志以及ICMP报文的类型,检测攻击是否发生。当检测出攻击发生,启动确定攻击目标阶段,找山攻击目标的具体IP地址。最后综合这两阶段的结果,提取攻击特征,将满足这些特征的数据包过滤掉,达到防御的效果。

基于MIKE FLOOD耦合模型的城区上游水库溃坝洪水模拟研究

[目的]研究溃坝洪水演进过程模拟方法,为水库溃决风险防控、制定溃坝早期预警及人员疏散方案提供科学依据。[方法]以河南省郑州市上游尖岗和常庄水库为例,基于GIS技术构建高仿真地形数字高程模型,利用MIKE FLOOD耦合模型进行水库溃坝一二维模型耦合,模拟水库溃坝后洪水演进过程,探讨洪水在下游河道和复杂城区的演进特征。[结果]常庄水库和尖岗水库溃坝瞬间最大下泄洪峰流量分别为4542.03和17549.1 m^(3)/s。贾鲁河下游距尖岗水库约15.00~31.39 km范围内河道两岸的漫堤洪水淹没面积为56.37 km^(2)。常庄水库溃决1.00 h后,河道漫堤,开始产生淹没区,溃决4.25 h后,尖岗水库发生溃坝。当尖岗水库溃决洪水演进历时1.25 h后,原淹没区水深显著增加,溃决1.92 h后,淹没范围开始增大。常庄和尖岗水库溃坝后,洪水水位均增大至超过南水北调防护堤堤顶,大量洪水涌进南水北调总干渠,洪水流速普遍增大。[结论]尖岗水库溃坝洪峰流量远大于常庄水库,溃坝危害性更大,溃坝后洪水大量涌进南水北调总干渠,堤防、边坡和进出口闸室冲刷风险增大,下游河道两岸漫堤淹没,严重影响南水北调总干渠输水安全和人民生命财产安全。

Experimental investigation into effects of the natural polymer and nanoclay particles on the EOR performance of chemical flooding in carbonate reservoirs

This paper aims to investigate the tragacanth gum potential as a natural polymer combined with natural clay mineral(montmorillonite,kaolinite,and illite)nanoparticles(NPs)to form NP-polymer suspension for enhanced oil recovery(EOR)in carbonate reservoirs.Thermal gravimetric analysis(TGA)tests were conducted initially in order to evaluate the properties of tragacanth gum.Subsequently,scanning electron microscopy(SEM)and energy-dispersive X-ray(EDX)tests were used to detect the structure of clay particles.In various scenarios,the effects of natural NPs and polymer on the wettability alteration,interfacial tension(IFT)reduction,viscosity improvement,and oil recovery were investigated through contact angle system,ring method,Anton Paar viscometer,and core flooding tests,respectively.The entire experiment was conducted at 25,50,and 75℃,respectively.According to the experimental results,the clay minerals alone did not have a significant effect on viscosity,but the addition of minerals to the polymer solution leads to the viscosity enhancement remarkably,resulting mobility ratio improvement.Among clay NPs,the combination of natural polymer and kaolinite results in increased viscosity at all temperatures.Considerable wettability alteration was also observed in the case of natural polymer and illite NPs.Illite in combination with natural polymer showed an ability in reducing IFT.Finally,the results of displacement experiments revealed that the combination of natural polymer and kaolinite could be the best option for EOR due to its substantial ability to improve the recovery factor.

Influence of pore structure heterogeneity on channeling channels during hot water flooding in heavy oil reservoir based on CT scanning

Hot water flooding is an effective way to develop heavy oil reservoirs.However,local channeling channels may form,possibly leading to a low thermal utilization efficiency and high water cut in the reservoir.The pore structure heterogeneity is an important factor in forming these channels.This study proposes a method that mixes quartz sand with different particle sizes to prepare weakly heterogeneous and strongly heterogeneous models through which hot water flooding experiments are conducted.During the experiments,computer tomography(CT)scanning identifies the pore structure and micro remaining oil saturation distribution to analyze the influence of the pore structure heterogeneity on the channeling channels.The oil saturation reduction and average pore size are divided into three levels to quantitatively describe the relationship between the channeling channel distribution and pore structure heterogeneity.The zone where oil saturation reduction exceeds 20%is defined as a channeling channel.The scanning area is divided into 180 equally sized zones based on the CT scanning images,and threedimensional(3D)distributions of the channeling channels are developed.Four micro remaining oil distribution patterns are proposed,and the morphology characteristics of micro remaining oil inside and outside the channeling channels are analyzed.The results show that hot water flooding is more balanced in the weakly heterogeneous model,and the oil saturation decreases by more than 20%in most zones without narrow channeling channels forming.In the strongly heterogeneous model,hot water flooding is unbalanced,and three narrow channeling channels of different lengths form.In the weakly heterogeneous model,the oil saturation reduction is greater in zones with larger pores.The distribution range of the average pore size is larger in the strongly heterogeneous model.The network remaining oil inside the channeling channels is less than outside the channeling channels,and the hot water converts the network remaining oil into cluster,film,and droplet remaining oil.

Pressure transient characteristics of non-uniform conductivity fractured wells in viscoelasticity polymer flooding based on oil-water two-phase flow

Polymer flooding in fractured wells has been extensively applied in oilfields to enhance oil recovery.In contrast to water,polymer solution exhibits non-Newtonian and nonlinear behavior such as effects of shear thinning and shear thickening,polymer convection,diffusion,adsorption retention,inaccessible pore volume and reduced effective permeability.Meanwhile,the flux density and fracture conductivity along the hydraulic fracture are generally non-uniform due to the effects of pressure distribution,formation damage,and proppant breakage.In this paper,we present an oil-water two-phase flow model that captures these complex non-Newtonian and nonlinear behavior,and non-uniform fracture characteristics in fractured polymer flooding.The hydraulic fracture is firstly divided into two parts:high-conductivity fracture near the wellbore and low-conductivity fracture in the far-wellbore section.A hybrid grid system,including perpendicular bisection(PEBI)and Cartesian grid,is applied to discrete the partial differential flow equations,and the local grid refinement method is applied in the near-wellbore region to accurately calculate the pressure distribution and shear rate of polymer solution.The combination of polymer behavior characterizations and numerical flow simulations are applied,resulting in the calculation for the distribution of water saturation,polymer concentration and reservoir pressure.Compared with the polymer flooding well with uniform fracture conductivity,this non-uniform fracture conductivity model exhibits the larger pressure difference,and the shorter bilinear flow period due to the decrease of fracture flow ability in the far-wellbore section.The field case of the fall-off test demonstrates that the proposed method characterizes fracture characteristics more accurately,and yields fracture half-lengths that better match engineering reality,enabling a quantitative segmented characterization of the near-wellbore section with high fracture conductivity and the far-wellbore section with low fracture conductivity.The novelty of this paper is the analysis of pressure performances caused by the fracture dynamics and polymer rheology,as well as an analysis method that derives formation and fracture parameters based on the pressure and its derivative curves.

Potential morphological responses of an artificial beach to a flood in extreme events: field observation and numerical modelling

Conch Island is a typical artificial island at the Tanghe Estuary in Bohai Sea,China.To improve natural environment and boost local tourism,beach nourishment will be applied to its north-western shore.The projected beach is landward and opposite to the Jinmeng Bay Beach.Nowadays,with climate changes,frequent heavy rainfalls in Hebei Province rise flood hazards at the Tanghe Estuary.Under this circumstance,potential influences on the projected beach of a flood are investigated for sustainable managements.A multi-coupled model is established and based on the data from field observations,where wave model,flow model and multifraction sediment transport model are included.In addition,the impacts on the projected beach of different components in extreme events are discussed,including the spring tides,storm winds,storm waves,and sediment inputs.The numerical results indicate the following result.(1)Artificial islands protect the coasts from erosion by obstructing landward waves,but rise the deposition risks along the target shore.(2)Flood brings massive sediment inputs and leads to scours at the estuary,but the currents with high sediment concentration contribute to the accretions along the target shore.(3)The projected beach mitigates flood actions and reduces the maximum mean sediment concentration along the target shore by 20%.(4)The storm winds restrict the flood and decrease the maximum mean sediment concentration by 21%.With the combined actions of storm winds and waves,the maximum value further declines by 38%.(5)A quadratic polynomial relationship between the deposition depths and the maximum sediment inputs with flood is established for estimations on the potential morphological changes after the flood process in extreme events.For the uncertainty of estuarine floods,continuous monitoring on local hydrodynamic variations and sediment characteristics at Tanghe Estuary is necessary.

Flooding(or breaching)of inter-connected proglacial lakes by cascading overflow in the arid region of Western Mongolia(Mt.Tsambagarav,Mongolian Altai)

This study investigates the glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF)hazards in the Tsambagarav mountain range in Western Mongolia,focusing on the Khukhnuruu Valley and its interconnected proglacial lakes.Over the last 30 years,significant glacier retreats,driven by rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns,have led to the formation and expansion of several proglacial lakes.Fieldwork combined with satellite data and meteorological analysis was used to assess the dynamics of glacier and lake area changes,with particular focus on the flood events of July 2021.The research reveals a substantial reduction in glacier area,particularly in the Khukhnuruu E complex,where glacier area decreased by 19.3%.The study highlights the influence of increasing temperatures and summer precipitation,which have accelerated ice melt,contributing to the expansion and eventual breaching of lakes.Additionally,lake area changes were influenced by the steepness of the terrain,with steeper slopes exacerbating peak discharge during floods.Of the studied seven lakes(Lake 1 to Lake 7),Lake 1 experienced the most dramatic reduction,with a decrease in area by 73.51%and volume by 84.84%,followed by Lake 7.This study underscores the region's vulnerability to climate-induced hazards and stresses the need for a comprehensive early warning system and disaster preparedness measures to mitigate future risks.