Incidence and mortality rate of esophageal cancer has decreased during past 40 years in Hebei Province,China

Background： Hebei province is located in North of China with of approximately 6% of whole national population. It is known as a high-risk area for esophageal cancer in China and worldwide. The aim of our study was to estimate the esophageal cancer burden and trend in Hebei Province. Methods： Eight cancer registries in Hebei Province submitted cancer registry data to the Hebei Provincial Cancer Registry Center. All data were qualified and compiled for cancer statistics in 2011. The pooled data were stratified by gender and age group （0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14...80＋）. Incidence and mortality rates were age-standardized to World Segi＇s population standard and expressed per 100,000 persons. In addition, proportions and cumulative incidence/mortality rates for esophageal cancer were calculated. Esophageal cancer mortality data during the periods 1973-1975, 1990-1992, and 2004-2005 were extracted from the national death surveys. Mortality and incidence rate data from Cixian and Shexian were obtained from population-based cancer registries in each county. Results： The estimated number of newly diagnosed esophageal cancer cases and deaths in 2011 in Hebei Province was 24,318 and 18,226, respectively. The crude incidence rate of esophageal cancer was 33.37/100,000 （males, 42.18/100,000 and females, 24.31/100,000）. The age-standardized rate by world standard population （ASRW） was 28.09/100,000, ranking third among all cancers. The esophageal cancer mortality rate was 25.01/100,000 （males, 31.40/100,000 and females, 18.45/100,000）, ranking third in deaths among all cancers. The mortality rates of esophageal cancer displayed a significant decreasing trend in Hebei Province from 1973-1975 （ASRW =48.69/100,000） to 2004-2005 （ASRW =28.02/100,000）, with a decreased rate of 42.45%. In Cixian, the incidence of esophageal cancer decreased from 250.76/100,000 to 106.74/100,000 in males and from 153.86/100,000 to 75.41/100,000 in females, with annual percentage changes （APC） of 2.13 and 2.16, while the mortality rates declined with an APC of 2.46 for males and 3.10 for females from 1988 to 2011. In Shexian, the incidence rate decreased from 116.90/100,000 to 74.12/100,000 in males and from 46.98/100,000 to 40.64/100,000 in females, while the mortality rates declined, with an APC of 4.89 in males from 2003 to 2011. Conclusions： Although the incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer remain high, an obvious decreasing trend has been observed in Hebei Province, as well as in high-risk regions, such as Cixian and Shexian, over the past 40 years.

Modified shock index and mortality rate of emergency patients

BACKGROUND:This study aimed to determine whether modified shock index(MSI)is associated with mortality that is superior to heart rate,blood pressure,or the shock index(SI).in emergency patients.METHODS:A retrospective database review was performed on 22 161 patients who presented to Peking Union Medical College Hospital Emergency Department and received intravenous fluids from January 1 to December 31,2009.We gathered data of the patients on age,gender,vital signs,levels of consciousness,presenting complaints,and SI and MSI were calculated for all patients.RESULTS:Multivariate regression analysis was performed to determine the correlation between risk factors and outcome.There is a significant correlation between emergency patient mortality rate and patient's vital signs obtained at the triage desk(HR>120 beats/min,systolic BP<90 mmHg,diastolic BP<60 mmHg).MSI is a stronger predictor of emergency patient mortality compared to heart rate and blood pressure alone,whereas SI does not have a significant correlation with emergency patient mortality rate.CONCLUSION:MSI is a clinically significant predictor of mortality in emergency patients.It may be better than using heart rate and blood pressure alone.SI is not significantly correlated with the mortality rate of the emergency patient.

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

The instantaneous total mortality rate(Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis,abundance and catch forecast,and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort(CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method,the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time,but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant,and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z,and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates(the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore,the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them,but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod(G adus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997,and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

Evaluation and Estimation of the Provincial Infant Mortality Rate in China's Sixth Census

Objective To assess the data quality and estimate the provincial infant mortality rate（1q0） from China＇s sixth census. Methods A log-quadratic model is applied to under-fifteen data. We analyze and compare the average relative errors（AREs） for 1q0 between the estimated and reported values using the leave-one-out cross-validation method. Results For the sixth census, the AREs are more than 100% for almost all provinces. The estimated average 1q0 level for 31 provinces is 12.3‰ for males and 10.7‰ for females. Conclusion The data for the provincial 1q0 from China＇s sixth census have a serious data quality problem. The actual levels of 1q0 for each province are significantly higher than the reported values.

Age,growth,and mortality rate of the yellow goosefish Lophius litulon(Jordan,1902)in the Yellow Sea

With the decline in the most fisheries resources in the Yellow Sea,the yellow goosefish Lophius litulon has increased in commercial and ecological importance in recent years.We studied the length distribution,length-weight relationship,age composition,growth pattern,mortality,and exploitation rates of the yellow goosefish in the Yellow Sea.Total length(TL)of females and males ranged from 173 to 582 mm and 178 to 500 mm,respectively.The length-weight relationships were also estimated for females and males.Age classes from 2 to 4 years predominated in the samples.The von Bertalanffy growth function(VBGF),estimated based on non-linear least-squares methodology,showed significant differences between sexes.Females attained a greater estimated asymptotic total length(765 mm TL)compared to males(579 mm TL).The VBGF did not differ significantly between stocks of the northern Yellow Sea and the southern Yellow Sea.Estimated natural instantaneous mortality rate(M)ranged from 0.25/a to 0.33/a based on four age-and length-based methods.Total instantaneous mortality rate(Z)of total samples calculated by the age-based catch curve method was 0.591/a and the average fishing mortality(F)was 0.30/a.Estimated exploitation rate(E)was approximately 0.5,indicating that the population of L.litulon in the Yellow Sea may be sustainable.These results provide a reference for the present status of L.litulon and information for the management.

SutteARIMA:A Novel Method for Forecasting the Infant Mortality Rate in Indonesia

This study focuses on the novel forecasting method(SutteARIMA)and its application in predicting Infant Mortality Rate data in Indonesia.It undertakes a comparison of the most popular andwidely used four forecasting methods:ARIMA,Neural Networks Time Series(NNAR),Holt-Winters,and SutteARIMA.The data used were obtained from the website of the World Bank.The data consisted of the annual infant mortality rate(per 1000 live births)from 1991 to 2019.To determine a suitable and best method for predicting InfantMortality rate,the forecasting results of these four methods were compared based on the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and mean squared error(MSE).The results of the study showed that the accuracy level of SutteARIMA method(MAPE:0.83%andMSE:0.046)in predicting InfantMortality rate in Indonesia was smaller than the other three forecasting methods,specifically the ARIMA(0.2.2)with a MAPE of 1.21%and a MSE of 0.146;the NNAR with a MAPE of 7.95%and a MSE of 3.90;and the Holt-Winters with aMAPE of 1.03%and aMSE:of 0.083.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MORTALITY RATES FROM BREAST AND OVARIAN CANCER IN JAPAN

Objective: Breast and ovarian cancer is rare in Japan compared with other developed countries but their mortality rates are increasing. It is necessary to examine the experience of Japan as a guide to further prevent breast and ovarian cancer in our country. Methods: We conducted an epidemiological study of breast and ovarian cancer in the past 50 years to investigate the trends and characteristics of the mortality rates in Japan. The numbers of age-specific death from breast and ovarian cancer and the population of 5-year groups were obtained from the Vital Statistics of Japan. The truncated age specific mortality rates were calculated according to the patterns of age specific mortality rates from both cancers. Age adjustments were made to the standard world population. Results: In the past 50 years, mortality rates of breast and ovarian cancer increased about 2 or 6 fold, respectively. This increase was most marked over 50 years old. The death pattern of breast cancer was same as that of ovarian cancer, but that of ovarian cancer changed greatly with time. The birth cohort study had some interesting findings. Common to breast and ovarian cancer, the later the year of birth, the higher the mortality rates from both malignancies in later life. Conclusion: The increase of the yearly mortality rates from breast and ovarian cancer might be due to changes in lifestyle and environmental factors. We are very concerned about dietary practices. Further investigation is needed to clarify the possible causes of animal food.

Trends of incidence and mortality rates of stroke from 1983 to 2000 in Hanzhong rural population

Objective: To explore the trends of incidence and mortality rates of stroke in Hanzhong rural population. Methods: Acting as the WHO MONICA project. Results: The incidence rate of stroke was 152.9/100 000. There was decline trend in male(P<0.05). The mortality rate of stroke was 115.9/100 000. There was no significant decline trend during 18-year period (P<0.05). The incidence and mortality rates of stroke of male were higher than those of female(P<0.05).The incidence and mortality rates were all increased with age(P<0.01). Conclusion: It must stick to the long- term prevention measures to decrease incidence rate, and improve the condition of medical treatment to reduce the mortality rate in rural population.

Flock Dynamics and Approaches for Reducing Mortality Rate among Mubende Goats at BuZARDI Semi-Intensive Farm, Hoima, Uganda

Goats are globally very important domestic small ruminants being kept for meat, milk, skin, byproducts and several socio-cultural purposes. Goat farmers in the Lake Albert Crescent Zone (LACZ) of Uganda identified dry-season feed scarcity, poor breeds, diseases, informal marketing and theft as major constraints which underscore the scarcity of information on improved management technologies and the need for targeted decisions. At BuZARDI goat farm, a semi-intensive farm that is also experiencing similar challenges, we documented management practices and collected production related data for 2 years. We computed flock dynamics and mortality rates purposely to influence decisions aimed at increasing the farm’s productivity. Data were collected using pens and books, validated and analyzed using MS office 2013 and SPSS version 22. The flock size increased from 37 goats in July 2020 to 175 goats in June 2022. One hundred twenty-five goats were introduced into the farm as breeding stock, 89 kids were born on the farm and 61 goats died due to various causes. The average number of goats in the farm per month was 109.2 (SEM = 13.7), female 79.8 (SEM = 10.8) and male 29.4, (SEM = 9.9). Average population of goats at risk of death was 95 and the Mortality rate was 27 goats per 1000 goat months. The disaggregated mortality rate of 5 goats per 1000 goat months and 39 goats per 1000 goat months were obtained for the period FY 2020-2021 and FY2021-2022 respectively. The main contributors to the mortality of goats were worm infestation (33%), fracture and injuries arising from stampedes (18%), Ticks and tick borne diseases (18%), respiratory tract infections (11%) and malnutrition (10%). We recommend strict adherence to the flock health program;improved parasite management, separation & improved care for kids, vaccinations, safer feeding, and evidence based disease management, adoption of digital data collection tools and development of an appropriate app for more accurate determination of mortality rates.

Linear Mixed Model Analysis of Worldwide Longitudinal Infant Mortality Rate Data and Association with Human Development Index

A linear mixed model is used to determine the explaining infant mortality rate data of United Nations countries. The HDI （human development index） has a significant negative linear relationship with infant mortality rate. United Nations data shows that the infant mortality rate has a descending trend over the period 1990-2010. This study aims to assess the value of the HDI as a predictor of infant mortality rate. Findings in the paper suggest that significant percentage reductions in infant mortality might be possible for countries for controlling the HDI.

Effects of Tetramethylpyrazine on Cardiac Function and Mortality Rate in Septic Rats

Objective： To study the effects of tetramethylpyrazine （TMP） on cardiac function and mortality rate in septic rats. Methods： Fifty male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomized into a sham-operation group （sham group, n=10）, normal saline group （NS group, n=20）, and TMP group （n=20）. The rats in the NS and TMP groups underwent cecal ligation and puncture （CLP） to induce sepsis. Rats in the NS group were injected with NS （10 mL/kg） immediately after CLP and 6 h after CLP. Rats in the TMP group were injected with TMP （10 mg/kg） at the same time points. Twenty-four hours after modeling, the mortality rates were observed in each group. Cardiac function and serum concentration of tumor necrosis factor α （TNF-α） were also tested. The correlation between TNF-α and the ejection fraction （EF） was observed. Left ventricle specimens were reserved for histomorphologic study. Results： Compared with the sham group, the NS and TMP groups had decreased EF values and increased mortality rates and serum TNF-α levels （P〈0.05）. The TMP group had a comparatively lower mortality rate and TNF-α level and a higher EF value compared with the NS group （P〈0.05）. Histomorphology indicated that myocardial inflammation in the TMP group was mild compared with that in the NS group. There was a negative correlation between TNF-α level and EF value （r=-0.583, P=0.000）. Conclusion： TMP could reduce the mortality rate of septic rats and had certain protective effects on cardiac function.

Mortality rates of pathogen indicator microorganisms discharged from point and non-point sources in an urban area

This research measured the mortality rates of pathogen indicator microorganisms discharged from various point and non-point sources in an urban area. Water samples were collected from a domestic sewer, a combined sewer overflow, the effluent of a wastewater treatment plant, and an urban river. Mortality rates of indicator microorganisms in sediment of an urban fiver were also measured. Mortality rates of indicator microorganisms in domestic sewage, estimated by assuming first order kinetics at 20℃ were 0.197 day^-1, 0.234 day^-1, 0.258 day^-1 and 0.276 day^-1 for total coliform, fecal coliform, Escherichia coli, and fecal streptococci, respectively. Effects of temperature, sunlight irradiation and settlement on the mortality rate were measured. Results of this research can be used as input data for water quality modeling or can be used as design factors for treatment facilities.

National Breast Cancer Mortality and Incidence Rates According to the Human Development Index: An Ecological Study

Background: This study aimed to identify the role of human development index (HDI) in the incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer (BC) worldwide. Methods: Data on the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of BC for 184 countries were obtained from the GLOBOCAN. Data about the HDI and other indices were obtained from the World Bank Report 2013. Linear regression model was used for assessment the effect of HDI on BC occurrence rates. Results: In 2012, BCs were estimated to have affected a total of 1,671,149 individuals (crude rate: 47.8 per 100,000 individuals), and caused 521,907 deaths worldwide (crude rate: 14.7 per 100,000 individuals). Nearly half of total female BC cases (46.3%) with the highest risk of incidence (age-standardized Rate (ASR): 128 per 100,000) had occurred in very high HDI regions. The most proportion of the mortality burden was in low HDI and medium HDI areas. Linear regression analyses showed a direct significant correlation between the incidence of BC and HDI at the global level (B = 104.5, P < 0.001). The mortality rate of BC was not significantly associated with HDI (B = 3.26, P = 0.160). Conclusion: Our study showed that the burden of female BC is enormous in very high HDI and low HID regions. Targeted interventions have the ability to reduce this number significantly through resource-dependent interventions. Moreover, further reductions in mortality could be brought about by increasing access to curative treatment for patients with BC.

Influencing Factors and Mortality Prediction of Covid-19 Contact Infection Rate in China

Taking the COVID-19 data from 2020-1-23 to 3-21 days released by the China Health Protection Committee as the sample,the hospital remaining rate,mortality rate and cure rate are selected as covariates,and the contact infection rate is used as response variable to establish a high precision ADL model,results of return substitution show that the predicted value of contact infection rate almost coincides with the sample value,and shows three stages of change characteristics.After March 1,2020,the overall trend is downward,stable below 12%.Main influencing factors of contact infection rate are analyzed quantitatively.Based on this,the ARIMA(1,2,2)model is established to analyze and predict the mortality change trend.The results showed that the domestic COVID-19 mortality rate is stable near 4%after 2020-3-27.

Trends of autoimmune liver disease inpatient hospitalization and mortality from 2011 to 2017:A United States nationwide analysis

BACKGROUND Autoimmune liver diseases(AiLD)encompass a variety of disorders that target either the liver cells(autoimmune hepatitis,AIH)or the bile ducts[primary biliary cholangitis(PBC),and primary sclerosing cholangitis(PSC)].These conditions can progress to chronic liver disease(CLD),which is characterized by fibrosis,cirrhosis,and hepatocellular carcinoma.Recent studies have indicated a rise in hospitalizations and associated costs for CLD in the US,but information regarding inpatient admissions specifically for AiLD remains limited.AIM To examine the trends and mortality of inpatient hospitalization of AiLD from 2011 to 2017.METHODS This study is a retrospective analysis utilizing the National Inpatient Sample(NIS)databases.All subjects admitted between 2011 and 2017 with a diagnosis of AiLD(AIH,PBC,PSC)were identified using the International Classification of Diseases(ICD-9)and ICD-10 codes.primary AiLD admission was defined if the first admission code was one of the AiLD codes.secondary AiLD admission was defined as having the AiLD diagnosis anywhere in the admission diagnosis(25 diagnoses).Subjects aged 21 years and older were included.The national estimates of hospitalization were derived using sample weights provided by NIS.χ^(2)tests for categorical data were used.The primary trend characteristics were in-hospital mortality,hospital charges,and length of stay.RESULTS From 2011 to 2017,hospitalization rates witnessed a significant decline,dropping from 83263 admissions to 74850 admissions(P<0.05).The patients hospitalized were predominantly elderly(median 53%for age>65),mostly female(median 59%)(P<0.05),and primarily Caucasians(median 68%)(P<0.05).Medicare was the major insurance(median 56%),followed by private payer(median 27%)(P<0.05).The South was the top geographical distribution for these admissions(median 33%)(P<0.05),with most admissions taking place in big teaching institutions(median 63%)(P<0.05).Total charges for admissions rose from 66031 in 2011 to 78987 in 2017(P<0.05),while the inpatient mortality rate had a median of 4.9%(P<0.05),rising from 4.67%in 2011 to 5.43%in 2017.The median length of stay remained relatively stable,changing from 6.94 days(SD=0.07)in 2011 to 6.51 days(SD=0.06)in 2017(P<0.05).Acute renal failure emerged as the most common risk factor associated with an increased death rate,affecting nearly 68%of patients(P<0.05).CONCLUSION AiLD-inpatient hospitalization showed a decrease in overall trends over the studied years,however there is a significant increase in financial burden on healthcare with increasing in-hospital costs along with increase in mortality of hospitalized patient with AiLD.

Subgroup comparison of COVID-19 case and mortality with associated factors in Mississippi: findings from analysis of the first four months of public data

We compared subgroup differences in COVID-19 case and mortality and investigated factors associated with case and mortality rate(MR)measured at the county level in Mississippi.Findings were based on data published by the Mississippi State Department of Health between March 11 and July 16,2020.The COVID-19 case rate and case fatality rate(CFR)differed by gender and race,while MR only differed by race.Residents aged 80 years or older and those who live in a non-metro area had a higher case rate,CFR,and MR.After controlling for selected factors,researchers found that the percent of residents who are obese,low income,or with certain chronic conditions were associated with the county COVID-19 case rate,CFR,and/or MR,though some were negatively related.The findings may help the state to identify counties with higher COVID-19 case rate,CFR,and MR based on county demographics and the degree of its chronic conditions.

Surgical complications in COVID-19 patients in the setting of moderate to severe disease

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic has had a considerable impact on the work of physicians and surgeons.The connection between the patient and the surgeon cannot be replaced by telemedicine.For example,the surgical staff faces more serious difficulties compared to non-surgical specialists during the COVID-19 pandemic.The primary concerns include the safest solutions for protecting healthcare staff and patients and the ability to provide adequate surgical care.Additionally,the adverse effects of any surgery delays and the financial consequences complicate the picture.Therefore,patients’admission during the COVID-19 pandemic should be taken into consideration,as well as preoperative measures.The COVID-19 situation brings particular risk to patients during surgery,where preoperative morbidity and mortality rise in either asymptomatic or symptomatic COVID-19 patients.This review discusses the recent factors associated with surgical complications,mortality rates,outcomes,and experience in COVID-19 surgical patients.

Underlying disease may increase mortality risk in users of atypical antipsychotics

Schizophrenia is a group of the most common types of mental illness.Commonly used antischizophrenia drugs all increase mortality to some extent.The increased risk of death in older individuals and patients with dementia using atypical antips-ychotics may be due to myocardial damage,increased mobility and increased risk of stroke.

How Infant Mortality Was Reduced in the Early Twentieth Century in Osaka

In 1983, the Vice Secretary-General of United Nations Children＇s Fund （UNICEF）, Karl Knutsson, visited Japan and remarked that the method of reducing the Japanese infant mortality rate （IMR） was a model for every country. In the early twentieth century, Osaka and at the time of UNICEF＇s plan in the 1980s, diarrhea was the cause of most babies＇ deaths, so we consider infant nutrition to be the central issue. The average IMR was 155.4 in rural areas in Japan, and IMR in Osaka city was 231.6 during 1906 to 1910. IMR in Osaka city might have been influenced by somewhat negative urban factors, which we can call the ＂urban penalty＂. Dr. Hiroshi Maruyama discovered the a-index in 1938. The a-index represents infant mortality number divided by neonatal mortality number. After all, Maruyama set one month after birth as a boundary to divide endogenous and exogenous. The a-index shows a qualitative measure of infant mortality. Post neonatal mortality was increased due to acquired diseases such as diarrhea, pneumonia, and beriberi. This shows that the effect of the urban penalty was raising the a-index. The a-index of the industrial zones shows that bad maternal conditions affected endogenous factors. Most mothers suffered from a deficiency of breast-feeding capability.

Pre-existing cirrhosis is associated with increased mortality of traumatic patients: Analysis of cases from a trauma center in East China

AIM:To determine the impact of cirrhosis on trauma patients and define the factors predicting death.METHODS:The data on patients admitted to the trauma center from January 2000-2005 were studied retrospectively.The clinical variables were recorded and compared to identify the factors differentiating cirrhotic trauma survivors from non survivors.Child's classification criteria were derived from the reviewed charts of cirrhotic trauma patients to evaluate their predictive value in cirrhotic trauma.Trauma registry was also used to generate a trauma control group by matching for age,sex,abbreviated injury score(AIS)over the same period of time.The outcome variables compared were mortality rate,time of ICU and hospital stay.Results were expressed as mean ± SD.These data were analyzed by SPSS.11.0 statistical software.Univariate analysis was performed to identify significant medical factors for survivor and non survivors subjected to chi-square test.Fisher's exact test and Student's t test were performed to determine the statistical difference between cirrhotic and control groups.P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.RESULTS:Poor prognosis of traum patients was associated with one or more of the following findings:ascitcs,hyperbilirubinemia(more than 2 mg/dL),hypoalbuminemia(less than 3.5 mg/dL),and prolonged prothrombin time(more than 12.5 seconds).Although Child's classification was used to predict the outcome in cirrhotic patients undergoing portacaval shunt procedures,no significant difference was found in mortality rate as a function of Child's classification.CONCLUSION:Cirrhosis is associated with a highermortality,a longer time of ICU and hospital stay of trauma patients.It seems that treatment of trauma patients with pre-existing severe liver disease is a challenge to surgeons.