The Water-Bearing Numerical Model and Its Operational Forecasting Experiments PartII: The Operational Forecasting Experiments

おhe water-bearing numerical model is undergone all round examinations during the operational forecasting experiments from 1994 to 1996. A lot of difficult problems arising from the model′s water-bearing are successfully resolved in these experiments through developing and using a series of technical measures. The operational forecasting running of the water-bearing numerical model is realized stably and reliably, and satisfactory forecasts are obtained.

The Water-Bearing Numerical Model and Its Operational Forecasting Experiments Part I: The Water-Bearing Numerical Model

In first paper of articles, the physical and calculating schemes of the water-bearing numerical model are described. The model is developed by bearing all species of hydrometeors in a conventional numerical model in which the dynamic framework of hydrostatic equilibrium is taken. The main contributions are: the mixing ratios of all species of hydrometeors are added as the prognostic variables of model, the prognostic equations of these hydrometeors are introduced, the cloud physical framework is specially designed, some technical measures are used to resolve a series of physical, mathematical and computational problems arising from water-bearing; and so on. The various problems (in such aspects as the designs of physical and calculating schemes and the composition of computational programme) which are exposed in feasibility test, in sensibility test, and especially in operational forecasting experiments are successfully resolved using a lot of technical measures having been developed from researches and tests. Finally, the operational forecasting running of the water-bearing numerical model and its forecasting system is realized stably and reliably, and the fine forecasts are obtained. All of these mentioned above will be described in second paper.

Numerical simulation of microwave-induced cracking and melting of granite based on mineral microscopic models

This study introduces a coupled electromagnetic–thermal–mechanical model to reveal the mechanisms of microcracking and mineral melting of polymineralic rocks under microwave radiation.Experimental tests validate the rationality of the proposed model.Embedding microscopic mineral sections into the granite model for simulation shows that uneven temperature gradients create distinct molten,porous,and nonmolten zones on the fracture surface.Moreover,the varying thermal expansion coefficients and Young's moduli among the minerals induce significant thermal stress at the mineral boundaries.Quartz and biotite with higher thermal expansion coefficients are subjected to compression,whereas plagioclase with smaller coefficients experiences tensile stress.In the molten zone,quartz undergoes transgranular cracking due to theα–βphase transition.The local high temperatures also induce melting phase transitions in biotite and feldspar.This numerical study provides new insights into the distribution of thermal stress and mineral phase changes in rocks under microwave irradiation.

Progressive fragmentation of granular assemblies within rockslides: Insights from discrete-continuous numerical modeling

Rock fragmentation plays a critical role in rock avalanches,yet conventional approaches such as classical granular flow models or the bonded particle model have limitations in accurately characterizing the progressive disintegration and kinematics of multi-deformable rock blocks during rockslides.The present study proposes a discrete-continuous numerical model,based on a cohesive zone model,to explicitly incorporate the progressive fragmentation and intricate interparticle interactions inherent in rockslides.Breakable rock granular assemblies are released along an inclined plane and flow onto a horizontal plane.The numerical scenarios are established to incorporate variations in slope angle,initial height,friction coefficient,and particle number.The evolutions of fragmentation,kinematic,runout and depositional characteristics are quantitatively analyzed and compared with experimental and field data.A positive linear relationship between the equivalent friction coefficient and the apparent friction coefficient is identified.In general,the granular mass predominantly exhibits characteristics of a dense granular flow,with the Savage number exhibiting a decreasing trend as the volume of mass increases.The process of particle breakage gradually occurs in a bottom-up manner,leading to a significant increase in the angular velocities of the rock blocks with increasing depth.The simulation results reproduce the field observations of inverse grading and source stratigraphy preservation in the deposit.We propose a disintegration index that incorporates factors such as drop height,rock mass volume,and rock strength.Our findings demonstrate a consistent linear relationship between this index and the fragmentation degree in all tested scenarios.

A methodology for damage evaluation of underground tunnels subjected to static loading using numerical modeling

We have proposed a methodology to assess the robustness of underground tunnels against potential failure.This involves developing vulnerability functions for various qualities of rock mass and static loading intensities.To account for these variations,we utilized a Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS)technique coupled with the finite difference code FLAC^(3D),to conduct two thousand seven hundred numerical simulations of a horseshoe tunnel located within a rock mass with different geological strength index system(GSIs)and subjected to different states of static loading.To quantify the severity of damage within the rock mass,we selected one stress-based(brittle shear ratio(BSR))and one strain-based failure criterion(plastic damage index(PDI)).Based on these criteria,we then developed fragility curves.Additionally,we used mathematical approximation techniques to produce vulnerability functions that relate the probabilities of various damage states to loading intensities for different quality classes of blocky rock mass.The results indicated that the fragility curves we obtained could accurately depict the evolution of the inner and outer shell damage around the tunnel.Therefore,we have provided engineers with a tool that can predict levels of damages associated with different failure mechanisms based on variations in rock mass quality and in situ stress state.Our method is a numerically developed,multi-variate approach that can aid engineers in making informed decisions about the robustness of underground tunnels.

A typhoon-induced storm surge numerical model with GPU acceleration based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation grid

Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related losses.Storm surge numerical models are important for storm surge forecasting.To further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)grid.The model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C grid.The SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition refinement.In addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble forecast.It only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of China.The newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of China.The hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm surges.The simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.

Numerical analysis of high‑speed railway slab tracks using calibrated and validated 3D time‑domain modelling

Concrete slabs are widely used in modern railways to increase the inherent resilient quality of the tracks,provide safe and smooth rides,and reduce the maintenance frequency.In this paper,the elastic performance of a novel slab trackform for high-speed railways is investigated using three-dimensional finite element modelling in Abaqus.It is then compared to the performance of a ballasted track.First,slab and ballasted track models are developed to replicate the full-scale testing of track sections.Once the models are calibrated with the experimental results,the novel slab model is developed and compared against the calibrated slab track results.The slab and ballasted track models are then extended to create linear dynamic models,considering the track geodynamics,and simulating train passages at various speeds,for which the Ledsgard documented case was used to validate the models.Trains travelling at low and high speeds are analysed to investigate the track deflections and the wave propagation in the soil,considering the issues associated with critical speeds.Various train loading methods are discussed,and the most practical approach is retained and described.Moreover,correlations are made between the geotechnical parameters of modern high-speed rail and conventional standards.It is found that considering the same ground condition,the slab track deflections are considerably smaller than those of the ballasted track at high speeds,while they show similar behaviour at low speeds.

Numerical Models and Methods of Atmospheric Parameters Originating in the Formation of the Earth’s Climatic Cycle

Atmospheric models are physical equations based on the ideal gas law. Applied to the atmosphere, this law yields equations for water, vapor (gas), ice, air, humidity, dryness, fire, and heat, thus defining the model of key atmospheric parameters. The distribution of these parameters across the entire planet Earth is the origin of the formation of the climatic cycle, which is a normal climatic variation. To do this, the Earth is divided into eight (8) parts according to the number of key parameters to be defined in a physical representation of the model. Following this distribution, numerical models calculate the constants for the formation of water, vapor, ice, dryness, thermal energy (fire), heat, air, and humidity. These models vary in complexity depending on the indirect trigonometric direction and simplicity in the sum of neighboring models. Note that the constants obtained from the equations yield 275.156˚K (2.006˚C) for water, 273.1596˚K (0.00963˚C) for vapor, 273.1633˚K (0.0133˚C) for ice, 0.00365 in/s for atmospheric dryness, 1.996 in2/s for humidity, 2.993 in2/s for air, 1 J for thermal energy of fire, and 0.9963 J for heat. In summary, this study aims to define the main parameters and natural phenomena contributing to the modification of planetary climate. .

Numerical modeling of destress blasting for strata separation

Destress blasting(DB)implemented along the perimeter of safety pillars is a special application of destressing in coal longwall mining.The goal is to separate relatively more deformed mined areas from safety pillars,such as shaft pillars or cross-cut pillars,to reduce the transfer of high stresses to the protective pillar.This case study aims to numerically simulate selected destress blasts in the Czech part of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin and examine its impact on stress transfer to the safety pillar area.To separate the area between the protective pillar and the longwall(LW),two fans of five 93-mm blast holes(length of 93e100 m)were drilled from the gate roads into the overburden strata.Each set of blast holes was fired separately in two stages without time delay.The explosive charge(gelatin-type of explosive)of each stage is 3450 kg.The two DB stages were fired when the longwall face was approximately 158 m and 152 m away from the blast.A 3D mine-wide model is built and validated with in situ stress measured with hydrofracturing.Mining and destressing in three 5-m thick coal seams are simulated in the region.Numerical modeling of DB is successfully conducted using a rock fragmentation factor a of 0.05 and a stress reduction/dissipation factor β of 0.95.Buffering of transfer of additional stress from the mining area into the safety pillar is evaluated by comparison of yielding volume before and after DB.It is shown that yielding volume drops after DB by nearly 80%in the area of the destressing panel and near the safety shaft pillar.

Fracture of films caused by uniaxial tensions:a numerical model

Surface cracks are commonly observed in coatings and films.When structures with coatings are subject to stretching,opening mode cracks are likely to form on the surface,which may further lead to other forms of damage,such as interfacial delamination and substrate damage.Possible crack forms include cracks extending towards the interface and channeling across the film.In this paper,a two-dimensional numerical model is proposed to obtain the structural strain energy at arbitrary crack lengths for bilayer structures under uniaxial tension.The energy release rate and structural stress intensity factors can be obtained accordingly,and the effects of geometry and material features on fracture characteristics are investigated,with most crack patterns being confirmed as unstable.The proposed model can also facilitate the analysis of the stress distribution in periodic crack patterns of films.The results from the numerical model are compared with those obtained by the finite element method(FEM),and the accuracy of the theoretical results is demonstrated.

Stiffness and Shear Stress Distribution of Glulam Beams in Elastic-Plastic Stage:Theory,Experiments and Numerical Modelling

Traditional methods focus on the ultimate bending moment of glulam beams and the fracture failure of materials with defects,which usually depends on empirical parameters.There is no systematic theoretical method to predict the stiffness and shear distribution of glulam beams in elastic-plastic stage,and consequently,the failure of such glulam beams cannot be predicted effectively.To address these issues,an analytical method considering material nonlinearity was proposed for glulam beams,and the calculating equations of deflection and shear stress distribution for different failure modes were established.The proposed method was verified by experiments and numerical models under the corresponding conditions.Results showed that the theoretical calculations were in good agreement with experimental and numerical results,indicating that the equations proposed in this paper were reliable and accurate for such glulam beams with wood material in the elastic-plastic stage ignoring the influence of mechanic properties in radial and tangential directions of wood.Furthermore,the experimental results reported by the previous studies indicated that the method was applicable and could be used as a theoretical reference for predicting the failure of glulam beams.

Zoning Evaluation of Hourly Precipitation in High-resolution Regional Numerical Models over Hainan Island

This study assesses the performance of three high-resolution regional numerical models in predicting hourly rainfall over Hainan Island from April to October for the years from 2020 to 2022.The rainfall amount,frequency,intensity,duration,and diurnal cycle are examined through zoning evaluation.The results show that the China Meteor-ological Administration Guangdong Rapid Update Assimilation Numerical Forecast System(CMA-GD)tends to forecast a higher occurrence of light precipitation.It underestimates the late afternoon precipitation and the occurrence of short-duration events.The China Meteorological Administration Shanghai Numerical Forecast Model System(CMA-SH9)reproduces excessive precipitation at a higher frequency and intensity throughout the island.It overestimates rainfall during the late afternoon and midnight periods.The simulated most frequent peak times of rainfall in CMA-SH9 are 0-1 hour deviations from the observed data.The China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Weather Numerical Forecasting System(CMA-MESO)displays a similar pattern to rainfall observations but fails to replicate reasonable structure and diurnal variation of frequency-intensity.It underestimates the occurrence of long-duration events and overestimates related rainfall amounts from midnight to early morning.Notably,significant discrepancies are observed in the predictions of the three models for areas with complex terrain,such as the central,southeastern,and southwestern regions of Hainan Island.

Flow-Induced Clogging in Microfiltration Membranes: Numerical Modeling and Parametric Study

Microfiltration membrane technology has been widely used in various industries for solid-liquid separation. However, pore clogging remains a persistent challenge. This study employs (CFD) and discrete element method (DEM) models to enhance our understanding of microfiltration membrane clogging. The models were validated by comparing them to experimental data, demonstrating reasonable consistency. Subsequently, a parametric study was conducted on a cross-flow model, exploring the influence of key parameters on clogging. Findings show that clogging is a complex phenomenon affected by various factors. The mean inlet velocity and transmembrane flux were found to directly impact clogging, while the confinement ratio and cosine of the membrane pore entrance angle had an inverse relationship with it. Two clog types were identified: internal (inside the pore) and external (arching at the pore entrance), with the confinement ratio determining the type. This study introduced a dimensionless number as a quantitative clogging indicator based on transmembrane flux, Reynolds number, filtration time, entrance angle cosine, and confinement ratio. While this hypothesis held true in simulations, future studies should explore variations in clogging indicators, and improved modeling of clogging characteristics. Calibration between numerical and physical times and consideration of particle volume fraction will enhance understanding.

Field and numerical modelling on the stability of underground strata in longwall workings

The longwall method is one of the feasible and efficient underground mining methods for greater depth of workings.Recently,Singareni Collieries Company Limited(SCCL),the largest coal-producing government company in the Southern part of India,has deployed a high capacity(2×1152T capacity)power support system in its Adriyala Longwall Project(ALP)at a depth of 375 m.There was a concern about the stability of the longwall workings and the protective pillars.Thus,research work was carried out with the geotechnical instruments and numerical modelling tools to analyze the stability while retreating the longwall panels.The outcomes revealed that the convergence in the gate roads increased with the longwall face advancement and the area of exposure.The pressure of the powered support legs on the dip side was less than the rise side legs,which implies a stable roof condition over the longwall face.An abutment zone was identified ahead of the line of extraction up to 10e25 m and presumed from the Factor of Safety(FoS)criterion that within this zone,the longwall pillar possibly will be of better stability at every stage of extraction.The results obtained from this study would be helpful for the mining engineers to understand the behaviour of underground strata in longwall workings.

Numerical analysis of geosynthetic-reinforced embankment performance under moving loads

The performance of geosynthetic-reinforced embankments under traffic moving loads is always a hotspot in the geotechnical engineering field.A three-dimensional(3D)model of a geosynthetic-reinforced embankment without drainage consolidation was established using the finite element software ABAQUS.In this model,the traffic loads were simulated by two moving loads of rectangular pattern,and their amplitude,range,and moving speed were realized by a Fortran subroutine.The embankment fill was simulated by an equivalent linear viscoelastic model,which can reflect its viscoelasticity.The geogrid was simulated by the truss element,and the geocell was simulated by the membrane element.Infinite elements were utilized to weaken the boundary effect caused by the model geometry at the boundaries.Validation of the established numerical model was conducted by comparing the predicted deformations in the cross-section of the geosynthetic-reinforced embankment with those from the existing literature.On this basis,the dynamic stress and strain distribution in the pavement structure layer of the geosynthetic-reinforced embankment under a moving load was also analyzed.Finally,a parametric study was conducted to examine the influences of the different types of reinforcement,overload,and the moving load velocity on the geosynthetic-reinforced embankment.

Experimental and numerical investigation on alternatives to sandy gravel

The NATO agreement STANAG 4569 defines the protection levels for the occupants of logistic and light armored vehicle.The Allied Engineering Publication,AEP-55,Volume 2 document outlines the test conditions for underbelly improvised explosive device(IEDs),which must be buried in water-saturated sandy gravel.The use of sandy gravel has some drawbacks,for instance reproducibility,time consumption,and cost.This paper focuses on the investigation of four alternatives to sandy gravel,which could produce similar specific and cumulative impulses:a concrete pot filled with water,a concrete pot filled with quartz sand,a steel pot without filling and a concrete pot filled with glass spheres(diameter 200μm—300μm)and different water contents.The impulses are measured with a ring technology developed at the Fraunhofer EMI.A numerical soil model based on the work of Marrs,2014 and Fi serov a,2006 and considering the soil moisture was used to simulate the experiments with glass spheres at different water contents,showing much better agreement with the experiments than the classical Laine&Sandvik model,even for high saturation levels.These results can be used to create new test conditions at original scale that are more cost-effective,more reproducible and simpler to manage in comparison to the current tests carried out with STANAG sandy gravel.

Understanding the spatial interaction of ultrasounds based on three-dimensional dual-frequency ultrasonic field numerical simulation

A transient 3D model was established to investigate the effect of spatial interaction of ultrasounds on the dual-frequency ultrasonic field in magnesium alloy melt.The effects of insertion depth and tip shape of the ultrasonic rods,input pressures and their ratio on the acoustic field distribution were discussed in detail.Additionally,the spacing,angle,and insertion depth of two ultrasonic rods significantly affect the interaction between distinct ultrasounds.As a result,various acoustic pressure distributions and cavitation regions are obtained.The spherical rods mitigate the longitudinal and transversal attenuation of acoustic pressure and expand the cavitation volume by 53.7%and 31.7%,respectively,compared to the plate and conical rods.Increasing the input pressure will enlarge the cavitation region but has no effect on the acoustic pressure distribution pattern.The acoustic pressure ratio significantly affects the pressure distribution and the cavitation region,and the best cavitation effect is obtained at the ratio of 2:1(P15:P20).

Surrogate modeling for unsaturated infiltration via the physics and equality-constrained artificial neural networks

Machine learning(ML)provides a new surrogate method for investigating groundwater flow dynamics in unsaturated soils.Traditional pure data-driven methods(e.g.deep neural network,DNN)can provide rapid predictions,but they do require sufficient on-site data for accurate training,and lack interpretability to the physical processes within the data.In this paper,we provide a physics and equalityconstrained artificial neural network(PECANN),to derive unsaturated infiltration solutions with a small amount of initial and boundary data.PECANN takes the physics-informed neural network(PINN)as a foundation,encodes the unsaturated infiltration physical laws(i.e.Richards equation,RE)into the loss function,and uses the augmented Lagrangian method to constrain the learning process of the solutions of RE by adding stronger penalty for the initial and boundary conditions.Four unsaturated infiltration cases are designed to test the training performance of PECANN,i.e.one-dimensional(1D)steady-state unsaturated infiltration,1D transient-state infiltration,two-dimensional(2D)transient-state infiltration,and 1D coupled unsaturated infiltration and deformation.The predicted results of PECANN are compared with the finite difference solutions or analytical solutions.The results indicate that PECANN can accurately capture the variations of pressure head during the unsaturated infiltration,and present higher precision and robustness than DNN and PINN.It is also revealed that PECANN can achieve the same accuracy as the finite difference method with fewer initial and boundary training data.Additionally,we investigate the effect of the hyperparameters of PECANN on solving RE problem.PECANN provides an effective tool for simulating unsaturated infiltration.

Exploring mechanism of hidden,steep obliquely inclined bedding landslides using a 3DEC model:A case study of the Shanyang landslide in Shaanxi Province,China

Catastrophic geological disasters frequently occur on slopes with obliquely inclined bedding structures(also referred to as obliquely inclined bedding slopes),where the apparent dip sliding is not readily visible.This phenomenon has become a focal point in landslide research.Yet,there is a lack of studies on the failure modes and mechanisms of hidden,steep obliquely inclined bedding slopes.This study investigated the Shanyang landslide in Shaanxi Province,China.Using field investigations,laboratory tests of geotechnical parameters,and the 3DEC software,this study developed a numerical model of the landslide to analyze the failure process of such slopes.The findings indicate that the Shanyang landslide primarily crept along a weak interlayer under the action of gravity.The landslide,initially following a dip angle with the support of a stable inclined rock mass,shifted direction under the influence of argillization in the weak interlayer,moving towards the apparent dip angle.The slide resistance effect of the karstic dissolution zone was increasingly significant during this process,with lateral friction being the primary resistance force.A reduction in the lateral friction due to karstic dissolution made the apparent dip sliding characteristics of the Shanyang landslide more pronounced.Notably,deformations such as bending and uplift at the slope’s foot suggest that the main slide resistance shifts from lateral friction within the karstic dissolution zone to the slope foot’s resistance force,leading to the eventual buckling failure of the landslide.This study unveils a novel failure mode of apparent dip creep-buckling in the Shanyang landslide,highlighting the critical role of lateral friction from the karstic dissolution zone in its failure mechanism.These insights offer a valuable reference for mitigating risks and preventing disasters related to obliquely inclined bedding landslides.

Numerical investigation of hydro-morphodynamic characteristics of a cascading failure of landslide dams

A cascading failure of landslide dams caused by strong earthquakes or torrential rains in mountainous river valleys can pose great threats to people’s lives,properties,and infrastructures.In this study,based on the three-dimensional Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes equations(RANS),the renormalization group(RNG)k-εturbulence model,suspended and bed load transport equations,and the instability discriminant formula of dam breach side slope,and the explicit finite volume method(FVM),a detailed numerical simulation model for calculating the hydro-morphodynamic characteristics of cascading dam breach process has been developed.The developed numerical model can simulate the breach hydrograph and the dam breach morphology evolution during the cascading failure process of landslide dams.A model test of the breaches of two cascading landslide dams has been used as the validation case.The comparison of the calculated and measured results indicates that the breach hydrograph and the breach morphology evolution process of the upstream and downstream dams are generally consistent with each other,and the relative errors of the key breaching parameters,i.e.,the peak breach flow and the time to peak of each dam,are less than±5%.Further,the comparison of the breach hydrographs of the upstream and downstream dams shows that there is an amplification effect of the breach flood on the cascading landslide dam failures.Three key parameters,i.e.,the distance between the upstream and the downstream dams,the river channel slope,and the downstream dam height,have been used to study the flood amplification effect.The parameter sensitivity analyses show that the peak breach flow at the downstream dam decreases with increasing distance between the upstream and the downstream dams,and the downstream dam height.Further,the peak breach flow at the downstream dam first increases and then decreases with steepening of the river channel slope.When the flood caused by the upstream dam failure flows to the downstream dam,it can produce a surge wave that overtops and erodes the dam crest,resulting in a lowering of the dam crest elevation.This has an impact on the failure occurrence time and the peak breach flow of the downstream dam.The influence of the surge wave on the downstream dam failure process is related to the volume of water that overtops the dam crest and the erosion characteristics of dam material.Moreover,the cascading failure case of the Xiaogangjian and Lower Xiaogangjian landslide dams has also been used as the representative case for validating the model.In comparisons of the calculated and measured breach hydrographs and final breach morphologies,the relative errors of the key dam breaching parameters are all within±10%,which verify the rationality of the model is applicable to real-world cases.Overall,the numerical model developed in this study can provide important technical support for the risk assessment and emergency treatment of failures of cascading landslide dams.