Based on panel data of 17 economies in the G20 from 1995 to 2014,this paper,in terms of the total samples,developed countries and developing countries,explored the impact of national income on outbound tourism and the...Based on panel data of 17 economies in the G20 from 1995 to 2014,this paper,in terms of the total samples,developed countries and developing countries,explored the impact of national income on outbound tourism and the moderating effect of institutional change on the relationship between national income and outbound tourism.The results showed that:(1)for the total samples,developed countries and developing countries,national income had a positive impact on outbound tourism;(2)for the total samples and developing countries,institutional change had a positive moderating effect on national income and outbound tourism,indicating that with the deepening of marketization,the facilitating role of national income on outbound tourism strengthened;(3)for developed countries,institutional change had a negative moderating effect on national income and outbound tourism,indicating that with the deepening of marketization,the facilitating role of national income on outbound tourism weakened.展开更多
The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated global tourism and recovery is proceeding very slowly.For many countries,tourism served as a major economic sector,so investigating how to recover is essential.As China was the lar...The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated global tourism and recovery is proceeding very slowly.For many countries,tourism served as a major economic sector,so investigating how to recover is essential.As China was the largest source of outbound travelers before the outbreak,study of the factors influencing Chinese intentions to travel overseas in the post-COVID era is revealing.In Apr.2022,among seven provinces(or cities)with the most outbound tourists from 2019 to 2021,2450 individuals responded to a questionnaire on daily mobility,tourism experiences,and the shifts due to the pandemic.Light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM),a robust ensemble learning method,was adopted to quantify and visualize the impact of explanatory factors on outbound travel intention.In addition,the Optuna mechanism and Shapley additive explanation(SHAP)instruments were employed for tuning hyperparameters and interpreting results,respectively.Findings suggest neither one-day nor multi-day tours have resumed to pre-COVID levels.Higher frequency of multi-day tours with further destinations,less car utilization in daily shopping trips,and moderate pandemic restrictions can boost the intention to travel abroad.The concerns and desires of different age groups for overseas travel need different responses.This study reveals the factors affecting Chinese outbound travel intentions and provides suggestions for the recovery of tourism in the post-COVID period.展开更多
China’s outbound tourism boomed during the several years from the end of 1990s to the beginning of the twenty-first century,with an annual growth of over 20%.In 2002,China’s outbound tourists reached 16,600,000,surp...China’s outbound tourism boomed during the several years from the end of 1990s to the beginning of the twenty-first century,with an annual growth of over 20%.In 2002,China’s outbound tourists reached 16,600,000,surpassing that of Japan(16,520,000)for the first time,and China thus became the largest source in Asia.This was also the transition stage during which per capita GDP increased from US$1,000 to US$2,000.Although outbound policies have important impacts on outbound tourism,the final determinant is economic,namely,effective demand.Some scholars believe that China has reached a new phase of tourist consumption.Some even propose that outbound tourism demand increases rapidly when GDP reaches$1,000,and intercontinental tourism demand surges when per capita GDP reaches$3,000.However,the authors hold a different view.This paper compares the developments of outbound tourism from Japan,South Korea,and Taiwan,and finds that:(1)the threshold value of outbound tourism explosion occurs when per capita GDP and per capita income approaches$10,000;(2)surpassing$10,000 is a prerequisite for the period if steadily increasing outbound tourism.Based on a comparison of the relationship of tourism development and economic background,the paper proposes that China’s outbound tourism has outpaced economic growth as the result of income polarization.展开更多
基金Sponsored by Social Science Planning Project of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(2016NDB026)Scientific Research Project in Colleges and Universities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(NJSY17019)High-Level Talent Start-up Project of Inner Mongolia University(20500-5165138)
文摘Based on panel data of 17 economies in the G20 from 1995 to 2014,this paper,in terms of the total samples,developed countries and developing countries,explored the impact of national income on outbound tourism and the moderating effect of institutional change on the relationship between national income and outbound tourism.The results showed that:(1)for the total samples,developed countries and developing countries,national income had a positive impact on outbound tourism;(2)for the total samples and developing countries,institutional change had a positive moderating effect on national income and outbound tourism,indicating that with the deepening of marketization,the facilitating role of national income on outbound tourism strengthened;(3)for developed countries,institutional change had a negative moderating effect on national income and outbound tourism,indicating that with the deepening of marketization,the facilitating role of national income on outbound tourism weakened.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52131202)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province(No.Y21E080079)the Center for Balance Architecture,Zhejiang University,China.
文摘The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated global tourism and recovery is proceeding very slowly.For many countries,tourism served as a major economic sector,so investigating how to recover is essential.As China was the largest source of outbound travelers before the outbreak,study of the factors influencing Chinese intentions to travel overseas in the post-COVID era is revealing.In Apr.2022,among seven provinces(or cities)with the most outbound tourists from 2019 to 2021,2450 individuals responded to a questionnaire on daily mobility,tourism experiences,and the shifts due to the pandemic.Light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM),a robust ensemble learning method,was adopted to quantify and visualize the impact of explanatory factors on outbound travel intention.In addition,the Optuna mechanism and Shapley additive explanation(SHAP)instruments were employed for tuning hyperparameters and interpreting results,respectively.Findings suggest neither one-day nor multi-day tours have resumed to pre-COVID levels.Higher frequency of multi-day tours with further destinations,less car utilization in daily shopping trips,and moderate pandemic restrictions can boost the intention to travel abroad.The concerns and desires of different age groups for overseas travel need different responses.This study reveals the factors affecting Chinese outbound travel intentions and provides suggestions for the recovery of tourism in the post-COVID period.
文摘China’s outbound tourism boomed during the several years from the end of 1990s to the beginning of the twenty-first century,with an annual growth of over 20%.In 2002,China’s outbound tourists reached 16,600,000,surpassing that of Japan(16,520,000)for the first time,and China thus became the largest source in Asia.This was also the transition stage during which per capita GDP increased from US$1,000 to US$2,000.Although outbound policies have important impacts on outbound tourism,the final determinant is economic,namely,effective demand.Some scholars believe that China has reached a new phase of tourist consumption.Some even propose that outbound tourism demand increases rapidly when GDP reaches$1,000,and intercontinental tourism demand surges when per capita GDP reaches$3,000.However,the authors hold a different view.This paper compares the developments of outbound tourism from Japan,South Korea,and Taiwan,and finds that:(1)the threshold value of outbound tourism explosion occurs when per capita GDP and per capita income approaches$10,000;(2)surpassing$10,000 is a prerequisite for the period if steadily increasing outbound tourism.Based on a comparison of the relationship of tourism development and economic background,the paper proposes that China’s outbound tourism has outpaced economic growth as the result of income polarization.
