Seasonal Forecasts of Precipitation during the First Rainy Season in South China Based on NUIST-CFS1.0

Current dynamical models experience great difficulties providing reliable seasonal forecasts of regional/local rainfall in South China.This study evaluates seasonal forecast skill for precipitation in the first rainy season(FRS,i.e.,April–June)over South China from 1982 to 2020 based on the global real-time Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST-CFS1.0,previously known as SINTEX-F).The potential predictability and the practical forecast skill of NUIST-CFS1.0 for FRS precipitation remain low in general.But NUIST-CFS1.0 still performs better than the average of nine international models in terms of correlation coefficient skill in predicting the interannual precipitation anomaly and its related circulation index.NUIST-CFS1.0 captures the anomalous Philippines anticyclone,which transports moisture and heat northward to South China,favoring more precipitation in South China during the FRS.By examining the correlations between sea surface temperature(SST)and FRS precipitation and the Philippines anticyclone,we find that the model reasonably captures SST-associated precipitation and circulation anomalies,which partly explains the predictability of FRS precipitation.A dynamical downscaling model with 30-km resolution forced by the large-scale circulations of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions could improve forecasts of the climatological states and extreme precipitation events.Our results also reveal interesting interdecadal changes in the predictive skill for FRS precipitation in South China based on the NUIST-CFS1.0 hindcasts.These results help improve the understanding and forecasts for FRS precipitation in South China.

INFLUENCES OF LOW-FREQUENCY MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION ON LOW FREQUENCY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON OF SOUTH CHINA IN 2010

85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the precipitation of the first rain season and its relationships with moisture transport in South China,and channels of low-frequency water vapor transport and sources of low-frequency precipitation are revealed.The annually first raining season precipitation in 2010 is mainly controlled by 10-20 d and 30-60 d oscillation.The rainfall is more(interrupted) when the two low-frequency components are in the same peak(valley) phase,and the rainfall is less when they are superposed in the inverse phase.The 10-20 d low-frequency component of the moisture transport is more active than the 30-60 d.The10-20 d water vapor sources lie in the South India Ocean near 30° S,the area between Sumatra and Kalimantan Island(the southwest source),and the equatorial middle Pacific region(the southeast source),and there are corresponding southwest and southeast moisture transport channels.By using the characteristics of 10-20 d water vapor transport anomalous circulation,the corresponding low-frequency precipitation can be predicted 6 d ahead.

Temporal Variations of the Frontal and Monsoon Storm Rainfall during the First Rainy Season in South China

The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in SC seem to be mainly influenced by the frequency of storm rainfall, while both frequency and intensity affect the inter-decadal variations in the total storm rainfall. Using the definitions for the beginning and ending dates of the FRS, and the onset dates of the summer monsoon in SC, the FRS is further divided into two sub-periods, i.e., the frontal and monsoon rainfall periods. The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in storm rainfall during these two periods are investigated here. The results reveal a significant out-of-phase correlation between the frontal and monsoon storm rainfall, especially on the inter-decadal timescale, the physical mechanism for which requires further investigation.

SSTA SIGNAL CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN DURING RAINY SEASON IN CHINA

The teleconnection distribution characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) over the India Ocean and the precipitation during rainy season in China were studied by using the methods of EOF and CCA. The results indicate that the change of SST field will affect the change of rain belt during rainy seasons in China, and greatly affect the precipitation in northwest and southwest China, the Yangzi and Yellow River downstream basins. Strong signal phenomena of SSTA over India Ocean were revealed that showed the anoma-lous distribution of drought and flood in China. It shows that the precipitation during rainy seasons in China may be forecast by analyzing SST distribution characteristics over the India Ocean.

Analysis on the Precipitation Characteristics in the Rainy Season in Liupanshui City in Recent 50 Years

[Objective] The research aimed to study the variation rule of precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years. [Method] Based on the monthly precipitation data from three observatories (Liuzhi, Panxian and Shuicheng) of Liupanshui City from May to September during 1960-2009, the interannual, interdecadal variation and mutation characteristics of precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years were analyzed by using the linear tendency estimation, sliding T-test and Morlet wavelet analysis method. [Result] The rainfall in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years presented the decline trend, and the linear tendency rate was -15.4 mm/10 a. The precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City had the obvious interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics. It was the obvious rainless period in the metaphase of 1960s, and the precipitation was comparatively more in late 1960s. It was the relatively rainless period in the whole 1970s. From late 1970s to late 1980s, the precipitation in the rainy season entered into the pluvial period, and it was the period when the precipitation was the most in recent 50 years. The precipitation was relatively less from late 1980s to metaphase of 1990s. It was the pluvial period in the middle and late periods of 1990s, and it was the rainless period when entered into the 21st century. The sliding T-test showed that the precipitation mutation point in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years was in 2002. The wavelet analysis showed that the precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City had the significant multiple time scale characteristic. In the interdecadal scale, the precipitation had the significant 16-year periodic oscillation which stably existed in 50 years. In the interannual scale, the precipitation had the quasi-8-year periodic oscillation. [Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the accurate forecast of drought and flood disasters, disaster prevention and reduction in the city.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM(MCS)DURING THE FIRST RAINY SEASON OVER SOUTH CHINA

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and observations collected during the SCSMEX,amesoscale convective system （MCS） occurring over South China during 23-24 May 1998 has beenstudied with a numerical simulation using the Fifth Generation Penn-State/NCAR MesosealeModeling System （MMS）.The successful simulations present us some interesting findings.Thesimulated MCS was a kind of meso-β scale system with a life cycle of about 11 hours.It generatedwithin a small vortex along a cold front shear line.The MCS was characterized by severeconvection.The simulated maximum vertical velocity was greater than 90 cm s-1,and themaximum divergence at about 400 hPa.The rainfall rate of MCS exceeded 20 mm h-1.To theright of the simulated MCS,a mesoscale low-level jet （mLLJ） was found.A strong southwesterlycurrent could also be seen to the right of MCS above the mLLJ.This strong southwesterly currentmight extend up to 400 hPa.A column of cyclonic vorticity extended through most part of theMCS in the vertical direction.Additionally,the simulated MCS was compared favorably with theobservational data in terms of location,precipitation intensity and evolution.

Assimilating Doppler radar observations with an ensemble Kalman filter for convection-permitting prediction of convective development in a heavy rainfall event during the pre-summer rainy season of South China

This study examines the effectiveness of an ensemble Kalman filter based on the weather research and forecasting model to assimilate Doppler-radar radial-velocity observations for convection-permitting prediction of convection evolution in a high-impact heavy-rainfall event over coastal areas of South China during the pre-summer rainy season. An ensemble of 40 deterministic forecast experiments(40 DADF) with data assimilation(DA) is conducted, in which the DA starts at the same time but lasts for different time spans(up to 2 h) and with different time intervals of 6, 12, 24, and 30 min. The reference experiment is conducted without DA(NODA).To show more clearly the impact of radar DA on mesoscale convective system(MCS)forecasts, two sets of 60-member ensemble experiments(NODA EF and exp37 EF) are performed using the same 60-member perturbed-ensemble initial fields but with the radar DA being conducted every 6 min in the exp37 EF experiments from 0200 to0400 BST. It is found that the DA experiments generally improve the convection prediction. The 40 DADF experiments can forecast a heavy-rain-producing MCS over land and an MCS over the ocean with high probability, despite slight displacement errors. The exp37 EF improves the probability forecast of inland and offshore MCSs more than does NODA EF. Compared with the experiments using the longer DA time intervals, assimilating the radial-velocity observations at 6-min intervals tends to produce better forecasts. The experiment with the longest DA time span and shortest time interval shows the best performance.However, a shorter DA time interval(e.g., 12 min) or a longer DA time span does not always help. The experiment with the shortest DA time interval and maximum DA window shows the best performance, as it corrects errors in the simulated convection evolution over both the inland and offshore areas. An improved representation of the initial state leads to dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that are more conducive to earlier initiation of the inland MCS and longer maintenance of the offshore MCS.

Mesoscale Observational Analysis of Lifting Mechanism of a Warm-Sector Convective System Producing the Maximal Daily Precipitation in China Mainland during Pre-Summer Rainy Season of 2015

A long-lived, quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system(MCS) producing extreme rainfall(maximum of 542 mm) over the eastern coastal area of Guangdong Province on 20 May 2015 is analyzed by using high-resolution surface observations, sounding data, and radar measurements. New convective cells are continuously initiated along a mesoscale boundary at the surface, leading to formation and maintenance of the quasi-linear-shaped MCS from about 2000 BT 19 to 1200 BT 20 May. The boundary is originally formed between a cold dome generated by previous convection and southwesterly flow from the ocean carrying higher equivalent potential temperature(θe) air. The boundary is subsequently maintained and reinforced by the contrast between the MCS-generated cold outflow and the oceanic higher-θ_e air. The cold outflow is weak(wind speed 5 m s^(-1)), which is attributable to the characteristic environmental conditions, i.e., high humidity in the lower troposphere and weak horizontal winds in the middle and lower troposphere. The low speed of the cold outflow is comparable to that of the near surface southerly flow from the ocean, resulting in very slow southward movement of the boundary. The boundary features temperature contrasts of 2–3℃and is roughly 500-m deep. Despite its shallowness, the boundary appears to exert a profound influence on continuous convection initiation because of the very low level of free convection and small convection inhibition of the near surface oceanic air, building several parallel rainbands(of about 50-km length) that move slowly eastward along the MCS and produce about 80% of the total rainfall. Another MCS moves into the area from the northwest and merges with the local MCS at about 1200 BT. The cold outflow subsequently strengthens and the boundary moves more rapidly toward the southeast, leading to end of the event in 3 h.

Analysis of Paths and Sources of Moisture for the South China Rainfall during the Presummer Rainy Season of 1979–2014

The paths and sources of moisture supplied to South China during two periods of the presummer rainy season(April–June) of 1979–2014, i.e., before and after the onset of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea(SCS),are investigated by using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HYSPLIT) model. During the premonsoon-onset period, the moisture transport trajectories are clustered into 6 groups, with four ocean-originating paths providing 83.9% and two continent-originating paths(originating over Lake Baikal and the Persian Gulf) contributing the remaining 16.1% of the total moisture. The two Pacific-originating paths, from the western Pacific Ocean and the East China Sea, combined account for about 46%, the SCS-originating path contributes about 24.3%,while the Bay of Bengal-originating path accounts for 13.6% of the total moisture over South China. The trajectories during the postmonsoon-onset period are clustered into 4 groups, with three southwesterly paths(from the Arabian Sea, the central Indian Ocean, and the western Indian Ocean, respectively) accounting for more than 76% and the sole Pacific-originating path accounting for 23.8% of the total moisture. The formation of the moisture transport trajectories is substantially affected by the topography, especially the Tibetan Plateau and the Indian and Indo–China Peninsulas. The SCS region contributes the most moisture during both periods(35.3% and 31.1%). The Pacific Ocean is ranked second during the former period(about 21.0%) but its contribution is reduced to 5.0% during the latter period, while the contribution from the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean combined increases from 17.1% to 43.2%.

Variations in the starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China, 1736-2010

The starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season during historical times(1736– 1911) in Fuzhou and Guangzhou of South China, were determined and reconstructed on the basis of historical documents in the Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun archive, together with observed features of precipitation during the pre-summer rainy season. In addition, starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season from 1953 in Fuzhou and from 1952 in Guangzhou were reconstructed for the instrumental period. These data allowed for analyses of inter-annual and inter-decadal changes in the starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season in South China over the past 300 years. Results show that the mean starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China was the first pentad of May; in addition, periodicities in the starting dates of 2–3 years, 10 years, and 40 years were detected during the period 1736–1911, and of 2–3 years, 10 years, and 22 years during the instrumental period. From 1736 to 1911, the earliest starting dates at Fuzhou and Guangzhou both occurred at the fourth pentad of April, while the latest starting dates were at the sixth pentad of May in Fuzhou and the first pentad of June in Guangzhou. During the instrumental period, the earliest and latest starting dates were at the fourth pentad of April and the first pentad of June, respectively, in both Fuzhou during 1953–2010 and Guangzhou during 1952–2010. The maximum difference between neighboring decades during 1736–1911 was 2.2 and 1.6 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively, and during the instrumental period it was 2.5 and 2.4 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively.

The Impact of Mid- and High-Latitude Rossby Wave Activities on the Medium-Range Evolution of the EAP Pattern During the Pre-Rainy Period of South China

Based on the NCEP DOE AMIP II daily reanalysis data (1979–2005), the evolution of the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern during the pre-rainy period of South China is studied on the medium-range time scale. It is found that positive and negative EAP patterns share a similar generation process. In the middle and upper troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanating from the northeast Atlantic or Europe prop-agate toward East Asia along the Eurasian continent waveguide and finally give rise to the three anomaly centers of the EAP pattern over East Asia. Among the three anomaly centers, the western Pacific subtropical center appears the latest. Rossby wave packets propagate from the high latitude anomaly center toward the mid-latitude and the subtropical ones. The enhancement and maintenance of the subtropical anomaly center is closely associated with the subtropical jet waveguide and the incoming Rossby wave packets from the upstream. In the lower troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanate from the subtropical Asia toward East Asia. Positive and negative EAP patterns could not be regarded as "mirrors" to each other with simply reversed phase. For the positive pattern, the positive height anomaly center around the Scandinavia Peninsula keeps its strength and position during the mature period, and the Rossby wave packets thus propagate persistently toward East Asia, facilitating a longer mature time of the positive pattern. As for the formation of the negative EAP pattern, however, the incoming Rossby wave energy from the upstream contributes to both the enhancement and southeastward movement of the negative anomaly belt from the Yenisei River to the Bering Strait and the positive anomaly center around Mongolia. At the peak time, the two anomlous circulations are evolved into the Northeast Asia and the mid-latitude anomaly centers of the negative pat- tern, respectively. The energy dispersion of Rossby wave packets is relatively fast due to the predominant zonal circulation in the extratropics, causing a shorter mature period of the negative pattern. During the pre-rainy period of South China, the prevalence of the EAP pattern significantly affects the rainfall over the region south of the Yangtze River. The positive (negative) EAP pattern tends to cause positive (negative) precipitation anomalies in that region. This is different from the earlier research findings based on monthly mean data.

The Record-Breaking Extreme Drought in Yunnan Province, Southwest China during Spring-Early Summer of 2019 and Possible Causes

In spring and early summer of 2019, Yunnan Province experienced the most severe seasonal drought on record,with days of extreme drought area exceeding 10^5 km^2 far more than normal. Consistently, the precipitation in each month from February to June is over 30% less than normal, and about 50% less in the most severe drought period(April–June). The rainy season in Southwest China(SWC) started on the third pentad in June 2019, which is the second latest in history. The rainy season in Yunnan started on 24 June, which is the latest(29 days later than normal). On the contrary, the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is abnormally early. The lag time between the start of the rainy season in SWC and the onset of the SCSSM in 2019 is 7 pentads, which is the largest since 1961, much longer than the climate mean(less than 1 pentad). The present study analyzes the possible reasons why the rainy season came extremely late and the drought disaster persisted and intensified after a much early SCSSM, at both seasonal and subseasonal timescales. The abnormally late onset of the rainy season and the second greatest potential evapotranspiration(PET) since 1981 are the direct reasons for the persistent drought. Statistical results show that the water vapor from southwest of Yunnan in April–June contributes more than that from the east at the seasonal scale. In April–June 2019, however, the southern branch trough(SBT) was abnormally weak, the large and strong anticyclonic wind anomaly prevailed over the Bay of the Bengal(BOB), and the meridional water vapor transport to Yunnan was weak. At the subseasonal scale, the weaker SBT lasted the longest, and the strong convection over the BOB came up late despite of an early onset of the SCSSM, which resulted in reduced low-level moisture convergence in Yunnan and development of drought prior to the SCSSM onset. From the onset of SCSSM to the start of rainy season in SWC, the SBT and meridional water vapor transport from the BOB were still weak, and the water vapor was mainly transported into the coastal area of South and Southeast China rather than Yunnan. After the start of the rainy season in SWC, the SBT was still weak. This led to less moisture transport in the westerlies to the west of Yunnan and the persistent extreme drought. Both the statistical results and case analysis indicate that the stronger Australian high in spring and early summer of 2019 was associated with the abnormally strong anticyclone over the BOB and the always weak SBT. In sum, the anomalous weakness of SBT played a critical role in the extreme drought occurrence and persistence in Yunnan of Southwest China in 2019.

近30年华南地区“龙舟水”暴雨研究进展

主要综述和回顾近30a来国内外关于华南“龙舟水”暴雨的天气气候研究进展,包括高空槽、切变线、低涡、急流、副热带高压等天气系统的影响,低频振荡、季风等大尺度环流背景,及其对高原积雪、海温等外强迫信号的响应。总结了“龙舟水”暴雨精细化预报中主要存在的问题,对提高“龙舟水”暴雨预报预测能力提出了展望。

热带北太平洋海温异常对2018年华南前汛期降水负异常事件的影响

本文利用1979—2018年中国地面气象台站1767个站点降水资料、HadISST海温数据及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,滤除同期ENSO影响后,分析了2018年华南前汛期降水负异常与热带北太平洋海温异常之间的联系。研究结果显示,2018年华南前汛期降水负异常事件和热带北太平洋(Tropical Northern Pacific,TNP)海温偏暖有关。热带北太平洋海温正异常,通过Mastuno-Gill响应引起西北太平洋气旋式环流异常,中国南海东风异常,减弱了南海夏季风,华南至中国南海地区对流层低层存在异常反气旋环流。水汽存在由中纬度北太平洋经黑潮海区-华南地区-中国南海-菲律宾群岛向热带太平洋的异常输送,且华南地区为水汽的异常辐散区域。另一方面,TNP区域暖海温异常引起了该区域低层异常辐合、高层异常辐散、异常上升运动,使得华南地区高层异常辐合、低层异常辐散、异常下沉运动。这样的环流配置对华南地区降水的产生有不利影响,引起了2018年华南前汛期降水异常偏少。2018年TNP区域暖海温异常引起华南前汛期降水负异常的物理机制还在ECHAM5模式30个成员集合平均的试验结果中得以验证。

青藏高原冬季积雪与华南前汛期降水年际变率的联系

利用1979—2018年青藏高原(简称高原,下同)卫星积雪数据集、华南地区261站逐日降水及ERA5再分析资料,探讨了高原冬季积雪与华南前汛期降水的联系。结果表明:1)高原西部积雪与华南前汛期降水的正相关关系最为稳定,其主要影响前汛期的锋面降水,对夏季风降水的影响较小;2)华南前汛期在高原西部积雪偏多年比偏少年偏早20 d,使得前汛期降雨日数偏多,持续时间偏长,总降水量偏多,而降水强度受积雪的影响较小;3)高原积雪偏多年,积雪的冷却作用形成了低层异常反气旋环流,而东亚沿岸为“+-+”的位势高度异常,中纬度“西高东低”的环流配置有利于中高纬冷空气南侵,使得华南上空温度偏低,同时偏强偏南的西太平洋副热带高压加强了低纬地区偏南气流和水汽输送。3—4月锋面在华南北部南北摆动,4月初偏北干冷空气南侵和偏南暖湿气流的持续北推使得锋面加强,触发了前汛期的较早建立;积雪偏少年冷空气和偏南暖湿气流均较弱,华南北部锋面在4月初中断,4月中下旬华南北部锋面在偏北弱冷空气和偏南暖湿气流的共同作用下重新建立,从而华南前汛期开始偏晚。

中国大陆降水时空变异规律——I.气候学特征

为系统了解大尺度降水气候特征,利用2 300多个国家级气象站逐日观测资料,分析了中国大陆1956—2013年多年平均降水的空间分布和季节性变化规律。主要新认识有:1暴雨量、暴雨日数和暴雨强度最高的站点在华南沿海,而小雨量、小雨日数最多的站点主要在江南内陆山区、丘陵;东部季风区山地、丘陵多出现低强度降水,平原和沿海易出现高强度降水;2四季降水量均由西北内陆向东南沿海递增,南方秋季降水量明显小于春季,但华西和江南沿海秋季降水量较多,冬季降水在东南丘陵出现高值中心;3珠江和东南诸河流域降水量年内存在2个峰值,其中珠江流域有6月主峰值和8月次峰值,东南诸河流域主峰在6月中下旬,次峰在8月末,长江流域总体表现为单峰型,出现在6月下旬和7月初,西南诸河流域和北方所有流域降水均表现为夏季单峰型;4南方各大河流域从2月末到6月中下旬陆续进入雨季,北方各大河流域进入雨季时间集中在6月末、7月初;南、北方雨季结束时间比雨季开始时间集中,从南到北进入雨季时间持续120 d以上,而从北到南退出雨季时间则仅持续不到45 d;5丰雨期的持续时间,珠江流域从5月初到9月上旬后期,东南诸河从5月上旬到7月上旬,8月末到9月初再度短暂出现,长江流域从6月中下旬到7月中旬,西南诸河从7月中旬到8月下旬,淮河流域从7月上旬至7月底、8月初,辽河流域在8月初出现极短丰雨期;6降水年际变异性最高的站点在青藏高原西南、塔里木盆地、阿拉善高原、华北平原北部和汾河谷地,海河流域年降水具有最大的变异系数。

汛期我国主要雨季进程成因及预测应用进展

汛期内我国中东部地区的雨季是东亚夏季风推进过程中的重要产物,主要包括华南前汛期、梅雨、华北雨季和华西秋雨等,各地雨季决定了我国中东部地区汛期的旱涝布局和旱涝演变,是我国汛期预测和服务的重点.该文回顾了4个雨季特征及影响因子方面的研究进展,在此基础上梳理物理概念预测模型.研究显示:海温异常是影响各区域雨季的重要先兆信号,但不同雨季的年际和年代际变化特征不同,海温作为外强迫信号的影响程度和时空形式也有差异.利用热带太平洋东西海温差指标能更好地解释华南前汛期降水的年际变化.而与梅雨的年际变化分量相关联的海温关键区主要分布于热带,与年代际或多年代际变化分量相联系的海温关键区则来自中高纬度.华北雨季降水的强弱不仅与ENSO循环的位相有关,更多受到ENSO演变速率的影响.而影响华西秋雨的海温关键区随着年代际背景的变化发生了改变,需要重新诊断和建模.

华南前汛期区域持续性暴雨的分布特征及分型

利用广东和广西两省共175个台站的日降水观测资料,采用计算机检索的方法,对1961-2005年间华南前汛期区域持续性暴雨进行了定义。对南海夏季风爆发前后区域持续性暴雨的气候分布特征的分析发现,季风爆发前持续性暴雨频数从60年代至今呈现出正态分布的年代际变化特征,而季风爆发后的区域持续性暴雨频数变化则几乎相反;广东省前汛期区域持续性暴雨降水明显比广西强。此外,通过EOF方法和相关分析得到了夏季风爆发前后出现频率较高的几种分布雨型,它们能较好地代表季风爆发前后华南降水分布的特点。

华南前汛期的锋面降水和夏季风降水II.空间分布特征

利用中国730站降水资料和第I部分(郑彬等,2006)得到的华南前汛期锋面降水和季风降水的划分日期,计算出1958-2000年华南前汛期锋面降水量(强度)和季风降水量(强度)的序列,采用EOF和扩展EOF分析方法,得到华南前汛期降水的几个主要分布型,并探讨锋面降水与季风降水的可能联系。分析结果表明:华南前汛期的锋面降水和季风降水分布主要有三种类型——全区旱涝型、西南涝(旱)东北旱(涝)型、东南涝(旱)西北旱(涝)型。各分布型的时间系数与850 hPa风场的相关结果表明不同的分布对应着不同的低层环流形势。统计结果显示华南前汛期锋面降水的分布形式与季风降水的分布形式有一定的对应关系。

东亚副热带西风急流位置变化及其对中国东部夏季降水异常分布的影响

利用1951-2004年美国国家环境预报中心（NCAR/NCEP）再分析候平均资料和同期中国740站日降水资料,分析了东亚副热带西风急流轴位置的变化趋势及其对中国东部夏季降水分布的影响,结果表明：（1）夏季7-8月东亚副热带西风急流位置和形态在1975-1980年间出现转折,1980年后西风急流中心逐渐向西移动的同时伴随有西风急流向南偏移。（2）在1980年以后华北地区降水量减少和降水强度减弱,雨季开始时间推迟、雨季变短,而长江中下游地区入梅提前、梅雨期变长,降水量增加,从而形成南涝北旱的降水分布形势。（3）1957-1964年华北典型多雨时期,西风急流呈纬向分布,在华北地区有高低空急流耦合,强辐合上升区正好位于华北,并有充足的水汽条件供应,使得华北降水偏多。而1980-1987年和1997-2002年华北地区为典型少雨时期,1980-1987年西风急流中心位置偏南和1997-2002年急流位置显著偏西,在华北地区均无高低空急流耦合的环流形势,水汽辐合区位于长江流域,强辐合上升区位置在30°N以南区域,有利于江南地区降水增加而华北地区少雨,这表明西风急流位置变化导致环流调整对中国东部降水分布有显著影响。因而,在讨论东亚副热带西风急流位置与中国东部地区降水异常的关系时,不仅要考虑西风急流南北位置变化,还需要综合分析西风急流的东西位置和形态的变化。