On the Expected Present Value of Total Dividends in a Risk Model with Potentially Delayed Claims

In this paper, we consider a risk model in which two types of individual claims, main claims and by-claims, are defined. Every by-claim is induced by the main claim randomly and may be delayed for one time period with a certain probability. The dividend policy that certain amount of dividends will be paid as long as the surplus is greater than a constant dividend barrier is also introduced into this delayed claims risk model. By means of the probability generating functions, formulae for the expected present value of total dividend payments prior to ruin are obtained for discrete-type individual claims. Explicit expressions for the corresponding results are derived for K n claim amount distributions. Numerical illustrations are also given.

Dimension of Solar Panels Surface Based to the Net Present Value for the Albanian Conditions

Active exploitation of solar energy is achieved in systems that absorb this energy through flat collectors. Hot water can be used for space heating, when its temperature is high, but it is used largely for DHW （domestic hot water） needs. Now days, this technology has resulted as the most viable for exploitation of solar energy, and various countries such as Israel, Turkey, and Greece provide hot water for residential and service sectors using systems of solar panels. In this proceeding we are writing about the dimension of the solar panels surface based to the net present value in Hotels of Albania.

Are the Methods of the Net Present Value Rate and Net Annual Value Rate the Effective Scheme Comparison Methods

As for the dispute about the best-choosing method of mutually-exclusive scheme and index selection, this text proves that there is an error to make a point that using net present value rate or net annual value rate, the most scientific and effective method is chain-system differential analysis and the most short-cutting method is the method of net annual value, to select the NA V maximum scheme.

Effects of hydraulic retention time on net present value and performance in a membrane bioreactor treating antibiotic production wastewater

A cost sensitivity analysis was performed for an industrial membrane bioreactor to quantify the effects of hydraulic retention times and related operational parameters on cost.Different hydraulic retention times(72-24 h)were subjected to a flat-sheet membrane bioreactor updated from an existing 72 h oxidation ditch treating antibiotic production wastewater.Field experimental data from the membrane bioreactor,both full-scale(500 m/d)and pilot(1.0 m3/d),were used to calculate the net present value(NPV),incorporating both capital expenditure(CAPEX)and operating expenditure.The results showed that the tank cost was estimated above membrane cost in the 38.2%,where capital expenditure contributed 24.2%more than operational expenditure.Tank construction cost was decisive in determining the net present value contributed 62.1%to the capital expenditure.The membrane bioreactor has the advantage of a longer lifespan flat-sheet membrane,while flux decline was tolerable.The antibiotics decreased to 1.87±0.33 mg/L in the MBR effluent.The upgrade to the membrane bioreactor also benefited further treatments by 10.1%-44.7%lower direct investment.

A New Approach for Measuring Shareholder Value Creation

This paper introduces a new approach for measuring shareholder value creation （called adjusted economic profit （EP）） which combines the advantages of both EP and APV （adjusted present value） methods. In particular, the shareholder value creation over a period is derived as the sum of two components： the EP relating purely to the operations of the company and the EP generated each period due to the tax benefit that arises from debt financing. We consider our results to be important for analysts and decision makers involved in appraising business performance or making investment decisions and HR professionals as well.

某三级甲等公立医院数字减影设备的成本效益分析

目的对公立医院数字减影血管造影(digital subtraction angiography,DSA)设备进行成本效益分析,结合社会效益评价,为设备采购和管理提供科学依据。方法采用投资回收期法、投资收益率法、量本利分析法和净现值法对数字减影设备进行成本效益分析,运用模糊数学法建模和指标评分法进行社会效益评价。结果公立医院数字减影设备包括DSA数字血管造影机、DSA全数字化平板探测器血管造影机、血管造影X线系统,其中:血管造影X线系统投资收益率最高为19.07%,投资回收期仅2.80年,运行效益评价为优秀;DSA全数字化平板探测器血管造影机A的经济指标最低,原因在于其业务量仅达保本工作量的83.91%,但其社会效益评分最高(C值为7.3)。结论公立医院在采购和管理数字减影等大型设备时需进行充分的成本效益分析论证,兼顾公立医院的公益性和科研属性,实行经济效益和社会效益双评价。

IT Project Evaluation and Investment Decision

There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT projects are not considered. In this paper, the process of IT project decision and implementation is fully analyzed, the real options that may be embedded in an IT project are identified, and a real option analysis (ROA) method is proposed for evaluation of an IT project under uncertain business environment. ROA employs Black-Scholes expansion model and cancels the assumption that the cost of project is certain. The numerical example manifests that the ROA can better evaluate IT project and select the IT investment alternative. Finally, a road map is provided to help selecting the suitable evaluation method to make IT investment decision.

Economic Critical Resources for the Industrial Exploitation of Natural Gas Hydrate

Since the implementation of several pilot production tests were in natural gas hydrate(NGH) reservoirs in terrestrial and marine settings, the study of NGH has entered a new stage of technological development for industrial exploitation. Prior to the industrial exploitation of any given NGH reservoir, the economic feasibility should be examined. The first step of economic evaluation of a NGH reservoir is to know whether its resource amount meets the requirement for industrial exploitation. Unfortunately, few relevant studies have been conducted in this regard. In this study, the net present value(NPV) method is employed to estimate the economic critical resources required for the industrial exploitation of NGHs under different production scenarios. Sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to specify the effects of key factors, such as the number of production wells, gas price, technological improvement and tax incentive, on the economic critical resources. The results indicate that China requires the lowest economic critical resource for a NGH reservoir to be industrially exploited, ranging from 3.62 to 24.02 billion m3 methane. Changes in gas price and tax incentives also play significant roles in affecting the threshold and timeline for the industrial exploitation of NGH.

Optimized algorithm in mine production planning, mined material destination, and ultimate pit limit

An integral connection exists among the mine production planning, the mined material destination, and the ultimate pit limit （UPL） in the mining engineering economy. This relation is reinforced by real information and the benefits it engenders in the mining economy. Hence, it is important to create optimizing algorithms to reduce the errors of economic calculations. In this work, a logical mathematical algorithm that considers the important designing parameters and the mining economy is proposed. This algorithm creates an optimizing repetitive process among different designing constituents and directs them into the maximum amount of the mine economical parameters. This process will produce the highest amount of ores and the highest degree of safety. The modeling produces a new relation between the concept of the cutoff grade, mine designing, and mine planning, and it provides the maximum benefit by calculating the destination of the ores. The proposed algorithm is evaluated in a real case study. The results show that the net present value of the mine production is increased by 3% compared to previous methods of production design and UPL.

On the feasibility of re-stimulation of shale wells

As a result of advances in horizontal comple- tions and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing, the U.S. has been able to economically develop several decades of worth of natural gas. However, a considerable concern has risen on the economic viability of shale gas development for reasons associated with the fast production declines as well as recent down-turns of natural gas prices besides rises in the costs of new technologies. Therefore, an economic analysis is required to investigate the profitability of the re- fracturing treatment of unconventional gas resources. Net present value of cash flows and internal rate of return are calculated for a range of gas prices considering 20 years of natural gas production from a typical unconventional shale gas reservoir. A systematic comparison is then accom- plished for three scenarios： （1） re-fracturing versus no re- fracturing, （2） combination of re-fracturing and drilling new wells, and （3） time-dependent re-fracturing treatment. Further, this paper incorporates the cost of re-fracturing treatment, the cost of drilling a new horizontal well, the water treatment cost, as well as the current and future price of natural gas in the model. The findings of this work would help the future re-stimulation development plans of the emerging unconventional shale gas plays.

Continuous-Time Models for Firm Valuation and Their Collateral Effect on Risk-Neutral Probabilities and No-Arbitraging Principle

Extensions of Merton’s model(EMM)considering the firm’s payments and generating new types of firm value distribution are suggested.In the open log-value/time space,these distributions evolve from initially normal to negatively skewed ones,and their means are concave-down functions of time.When payments are set to zero or proportional to the firm value,EMM turns into the Geometric Brownian model(GBM).We show that risk-neutral probabilities(RNPs)and the no-arbitraging principle(NAP)follow from GBM.When firm’s payments are considered,RNPs and NAP hold for the entire market for short times only,but for long-term investments,RNPs and NAP just temporarily hold for individual stocks as far as mean year returns of the firms issuing those stocks remain constant,and fail when the mean year returns decline.The developed method is applied to firm valuation to derive continuous-time equations for the firm present value and project NPV.

Moments and limiting distribution of a portfolio of whole life annuity policies

A dual random model of a portfolio of variable amount whole life annuity is set with the mth moment of the present value of benefits, and the respective expressions of the moments under the assumption that the force of interest accumulation function is Wiener process or Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Furthermore, the limiting distribution of average cost of this portfolio is discussed with the expression of the limiting distribution under the assumption that the force of interest accumulation is an independent increment process.

Estimating the opportunity costs of avoiding oil palm-based deforestation in Indonesia:Implications for REDD

Reducing emissions due to deforestation is considered a low-cost option for mitigating climate change.However,the recent literature suggests higher opportunity costs because of specific deforestation drivers,which render reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation(REDD+)for mitigating climate change an uncertain,less attractive,and controversial option.Indonesia is one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters.Since 1989,53.80%of its oil palm expansion has come from forestlands,which has generated a significant amount of carbon emissions.This study uses official data and results from the relevant literature to estimate the costs of oil palm-based deforestation under various scenario assumptions,including different output prices,yields,time horizons,and discount rates.We also calculate the additional cost to preserve a 1-ha forest.We demonstrate that the average opportunity cost from avoiding oil palm-based deforestation is 24.42 USD/tCO_(2)eq in Indonesia,approximately 1.3 times the 2011 EUA carbon price.Additional sums of around 5,466.90–11,042.96 USD/ha should be provided to landowners for the deforestation avoidance caused by oil palm expansion.Special attention should be given to the extensive oil palm expansion in Indonesia and the resulting high opportunity costs for achieving the REDD+​target.

Combined stochastic and discrete simulation to optimise the economics of mixed single-horizontal and multilateral well offshore oil developments

Multilateral wells promise cost savings to oil and fields as they have the potential to reduce overall drilling distances and minimize the number of slots required for the surface facility managing the well.However,drilling a multilateral well does not always increase the flow rate when compared to two single-horizontal wells due to competition in production inside the mother-bore.Here,a holistic approach is proposed to find the optimum balance between single and multilateral wells in an offshore oil development.In so doing,the integrated approach finds the highest Net Present Value(NPV)configuration of the field considering drilling,subsurface,production and financial analysis.The model employs stochastic perturbation and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods to solve the global maximising-NPV problem.In addition,a combination of Mixed-Integer Linear Programming(MILP),an improved Dijkstra algorithm and a Levenberg-Marquardt optimiser is proposed to solve the rate allocation problem.With the outcome from this analysis,the model suggests the optimum development including number of multilateral and single horizontal wells that would result in the highest NPV.The results demonstrate the potential for modelling to find the optimal use of petroleum facilities and to assist with planning and decision making.

Economic Viability of Smallholder Agroforestry and Beekeeping Projects in Uluguru Mountains, Tanzania: A Cost Benefit Analysis

Agroforestry and beekeeping are widely promoted as prospective Nature- Based Income Generating Activities (NIGAs) to improve livelihoods while at the same time enhancing biodiversity conservation in degrading agro-ecologies. These activities can diversify and increase famers’ incomes and support instinctive biota and fauna resilience. However, evidence to showcase and compare their long-term benefits is scant. We use the case of Uluguru Mountains in Tanzania to evaluate and compare viability of agroforestry and beekeeping projects using the Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) approach. The results of analysis yielded positive NPVs for both agroforestry and beekeeping projects at discount rates not higher than 8.2% and 8.5% respectively. Overall, the comparison of economic viability between agroforestry and beekeeping projects revealed that the former was relatively more profitable than the later in terms of both the NPV and Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) criteria. However, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for beekeeping was slightly higher than that of agroforestry. Yet, we underscore the fact that these two projects can jointly be implemented to enhance livelihoods of farmers and support biodiversity conservation in the study area and other parts with similar agro-ecologies in developing countries. However, farmers in these agro-ecologies need to be supported by governments and non-government development partners in terms of training and inspiration to shift from orthodox farming to sustainable NIGAs.

The Analysis and Modification of Opportunity Cost of Investment

We think we should use basic return rate of industry to measure the opportunity cost of capital and use the rule of Maximum NPV （Net Present Value） to modify the wrong solution in the book.

A techno-economic analysis of aquaculture business in Ogun State,Nigeria

Fish supplies 25% of the total protein source in developing countries. A techno-economic analysis was performed for developing a good business proposal for aquaculture loans to enhance aquaculture development in Nigeria. A case study of catfish Clarias gariepinus framing was conducted in Abeokuta North Local Government of Ogun State, Nigeria. The results show that the fixed cost is N18 338 per year, and the variable cost is N459 700 per year, accounting for the largest amount of the total; therefore, a profit of N43 289 per month can be made. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess any risk(s) that associated with unfavorable changes in government policy with particular reference to monetary policy. Positive net present value shows that the investment in fish farm is economically feasible and the net investment ratio is 3.52. Also, the benefit-cost ratio is 2.17. The internal rate of return (IRR) is 21% showing that the enterprise is able to offset the interest being charged on the loan. It is therefore worthwhile to invest into fish farm business in the study area. The study suggests that to better sustain the local aquaculture business, the government should create a good conducive environment to foster development of the fish farming. Government intervention is urgently needed to solve problems such as in traditional land tenure, grant credit facilities and subsidies, to enhance the aquacultural development in the country.

A Research on Whole Life Insurance

The formulas of premiums and premium reserves of a kind of mixed whole life insurance were obtained by the methods of actuarial science. Then we take a typical policy of whole life insurance in present Chinese market as an example to analyze its expense design and predict its market prospects.

Some optimal dividend problems for a surplus process with interest

We derive some results on the dividend payments prior to ruin in the classical surplus process with interest.An integro-differential equation with a boundary conditions satisfied by the expected present value of dividend payments is derived and solved.Furthermore,we derive an integro-differential equation for the moment generating function,through which we analyze the higher moment of the present value of dividend payments.Finally,closed-form expressions for exponential claims are given.

Profitability of RE-Technology Regarding the Economic Environment:A Case Study of Swiss SMEs

Considering the important changes in the Swiss energy sector, especially in renewable energy(RE)technologies, new revenue possibilities for small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs) emerge. However, the adaption of RE-technologies for Swiss enterprises relies on tangible financial returns, based on complex calculations. This article analyses business opportunities(BOs) of eight Swiss SMEs considering the net present value of RE-investments in an uncertain economic environment. We identify two profitable BOs for Swiss SMEs and three which are not profitable. Further, the article demonstrates that the profitability of such investments remains mostly positive even under economic uncertainties. Surprisingly the profitability does not change significantly if the SME receives a subsidy or not. The support instrument of the Swiss Government has not a ponderous impact on the decision to invest in RE-technologies or not. Therefore, the article emphasizes the importance of including SME in the Swiss attempt to decentralize the energy market.