A Productivity Prediction Method Based on Artificial Neural Networks and Particle Swarm Optimization for Shale-Gas Horizontal Wells

In order to overcome the deficiencies of current methods for the prediction of the productivity of shale gas hor-izontal wells after fracturing,a new sophisticated approach is proposed in this study.This new model stems from the combination several techniques,namely,artificial neural network(ANN),particle swarm optimization(PSO),Imperialist Competitive Algorithms(ICA),and Ant Clony Optimization(ACO).These are properly implemented by using the geological and engineering parameters collected from 317 wells.The results show that the optimum PSO-ANN model has a high accuracy,obtaining a R2 of 0.847 on the testing.The partial dependence plots(PDP)indicate that liquid consumption intensity and the proportion of quartz sand are the two most sensitive factors affecting the model’s performance.

Productivity prediction model and optimal configuration of herringbone multilateral well

In order to accurately predict the productivity of herringbone multilateral well,a new productivity prediction model was founded.And based on this model,orthogonal test and multiple factor variance analysis were applied to study optimization design of herringbone multilateral well.According to the characteristics of herringbone multilateral well,by using pressure superposition and mirror image reflection theory,the coupled model of herringbone multilateral well was developed on the basis of a three-dimensional pseudo-pressure distribution model for horizontal wells.The model was formulated in consideration of friction loss,acceleration loss of the wellbore and mixed loss at the confluence of main wellbore and branched one.After mathematical simulation on productivity of the herringbone multilateral well with the coupled model,the effects of well configuration on productivity were analyzed.The results show that lateral number is the most important factor,length of main wellbore and length of branched wellbore are the secondary ones,angle between main and branched one has the least influence.

Product quality prediction based on RBF optimized by firefly algorithm

With the development of information technology,a large number of product quality data in the entire manufacturing process is accumulated,but it is not explored and used effectively.The traditional product quality prediction models have many disadvantages,such as high complexity and low accuracy.To overcome the above problems,we propose an optimized data equalization method to pre-process dataset and design a simple but effective product quality prediction model:radial basis function model optimized by the firefly algorithm with Levy flight mechanism(RBFFALM).First,the new data equalization method is introduced to pre-process the dataset,which reduces the dimension of the data,removes redundant features,and improves the data distribution.Then the RBFFALFM is used to predict product quality.Comprehensive expe riments conducted on real-world product quality datasets validate that the new model RBFFALFM combining with the new data pre-processing method outperforms other previous me thods on predicting product quality.

A transient production prediction method for tight condensate gas wells with multiphase flow

Considering the phase behaviors in condensate gas reservoirs and the oil-gas two-phase linear flow and boundary-dominated flow in the reservoir,a method for predicting the relationship between oil saturation and pressure in the full-path of tight condensate gas well is proposed,and a model for predicting the transient production from tight condensate gas wells with multiphase flow is established.The research indicates that the relationship curve between condensate oil saturation and pressure is crucial for calculating the pseudo-pressure.In the early stage of production or in areas far from the wellbore with high reservoir pressure,the condensate oil saturation can be calculated using early-stage production dynamic data through material balance models.In the late stage of production or in areas close to the wellbore with low reservoir pressure,the condensate oil saturation can be calculated using the data of constant composition expansion test.In the middle stages of production or when reservoir pressure is at an intermediate level,the data obtained from the previous two stages can be interpolated to form a complete full-path relationship curve between oil saturation and pressure.Through simulation and field application,the new method is verified to be reliable and practical.It can be applied for prediction of middle-stage and late-stage production of tight condensate gas wells and assessment of single-well recoverable reserves.

A systematic machine learning method for reservoir identification and production prediction

Reservoir identification and production prediction are two of the most important tasks in petroleum exploration and development.Machine learning(ML)methods are used for petroleum-related studies,but have not been applied to reservoir identification and production prediction based on reservoir identification.Production forecasting studies are typically based on overall reservoir thickness and lack accuracy when reservoirs contain a water or dry layer without oil production.In this paper,a systematic ML method was developed using classification models for reservoir identification,and regression models for production prediction.The production models are based on the reservoir identification results.To realize the reservoir identification,seven optimized ML methods were used:four typical single ML methods and three ensemble ML methods.These methods classify the reservoir into five types of layers:water,dry and three levels of oil(I oil layer,II oil layer,III oil layer).The validation and test results of these seven optimized ML methods suggest the three ensemble methods perform better than the four single ML methods in reservoir identification.The XGBoost produced the model with the highest accuracy;up to 99%.The effective thickness of I and II oil layers determined during the reservoir identification was fed into the models for predicting production.Effective thickness considers the distribution of the water and the oil resulting in a more reasonable production prediction compared to predictions based on the overall reservoir thickness.To validate the superiority of the ML methods,reference models using overall reservoir thickness were built for comparison.The models based on effective thickness outperformed the reference models in every evaluation metric.The prediction accuracy of the ML models using effective thickness were 10%higher than that of reference model.Without the personal error or data distortion existing in traditional methods,this novel system realizes rapid analysis of data while reducing the time required to resolve reservoir classification and production prediction challenges.The ML models using the effective thickness obtained from reservoir identification were more accurate when predicting oil production compared to previous studies which use overall reservoir thickness.

A Data-Driven Oil Production Prediction Method Based on the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree Regression

Accurate prediction ofmonthly oil and gas production is essential for oil enterprises tomake reasonable production plans,avoid blind investment and realize sustainable development.Traditional oil well production trend prediction methods are based on years of oil field production experience and expertise,and the application conditions are very demanding.With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology,big data analysis methods are gradually applied in various sub-fields of the oil and gas reservoir development.Based on the data-driven artificial intelligence algorithmGradient BoostingDecision Tree(GBDT),this paper predicts the initial single-layer production by considering geological data,fluid PVT data and well data.The results show that the GBDT algorithm prediction model has great accuracy,significantly improving efficiency and strong universal applicability.The GBDTmethod trained in this paper can predict production,which is helpful for well site optimization,perforation layer optimization and engineering parameter optimization and has guiding significance for oilfield development.

Productivity of coalbed methane wells in southern of Qinshui Basin

Based on regional CBM geological characteristics and drainage data of three typical Coalbed Methane(CBM) wells in the southern Qinshui Basin,history matching,productivity prediction and factor analysis of gas production control are conducted by using COMET3 reservoir modeling software.The results show that in the next 20 years,the cumulative and average daily gas production of the QN01 well are expected to be 800×104 m3 and 1141.1 m3/d,for the QN02 well 878×104 m3 and 1202.7 m3/d and 97.5×104 m3 and 133.55 m3/d for the QN03 well.Gas content and reservoir pressure are the key factors controlling gas production in the area;coal thickness,permeability and porosity are less important;the Langmuir volume,Langmuir pressure and adsorption time have relatively small effect.In the process of CBM recovery,the material source and driving force are the key features affecting gas productivity,while the permeation process is relatively important and the desorption process has some impact on gas recovery.

Fully coupled fluid-solid productivity numerical simulation of multistage fractured horizontal well in tight oil reservoirs

A mathematical model, fully coupling multiple porous media deformation and fluid flow, was established based on the elastic theory of porous media and fluid-solid coupling mechanism in tight oil reservoirs. The finite element method was used to determine the numerical solution and the accuracy of the model was verified. On this basis, the model was used to simulate productivity of multistage fractured horizontal wells in tight oil reservoirs. The results show that during the production of tight oil wells, the reservoir region close to artificial fractures deteriorated in physical properties significantly, e.g. the aperture and conductivity of artificial fractures dropped by 52.12% and 89.02% respectively. The simulations of 3000-day production of a horizontal well in tight oil reservoir showed that the predicted productivity by the uncoupled model had an error of 38.30% from that by the fully-coupled model. Apparently, ignoring the influence of fluid-solid interaction effect led to serious deviations of the productivity prediction results. The productivity of horizontal well in tight oil reservoir was most sensitive to the start-up pressure gradient, and second most sensitive to the opening of artificial fractures. Enhancing the initial conductivity of artificial fractures was helpful to improve the productivity of tight oil wells. The influence of conductivity, spacing, number and length of artificial fractures should be considered comprehensively in fracturing design. Increasing the number of artificial fractures unilaterally could not achieve the expected increase in production.

A new production component method for natural gas development planning

Based on an analysis of the limitations of conventional production component methods for natural gas development planning,this study proposes a new one that uses life cycle models for the trend fitting and prediction of production.In this new method,the annual production of old and new wells is predicted by year first and then is summed up to yield the production for the planning period.It shows that the changes in the production of old wells in old blocks can be fitted and predicted using the vapor pressure model(VPM),with precision of 80%e95%,which is 6.6%e13.2%higher than that of other life cycle models.Furthermore,a new production prediction process and method for new wells have been established based on this life cycle model to predict the production of medium-to-shallow gas reservoirs in western Sichuan Basin,with predication error of production rate in 2021 and 2022 being 6%and 3%respectively.The new method can be used to guide the medium-and long-term planning or annual scheme preparation for gas development.It is also applicable to planning for large single gas blocks that require continuous infill drilling and adjustment to improve gas recovery.

Shale oil production predication based on an empirical modelconstrained CNN-LSTM

Accurately predicting the production rate and estimated ultimate recovery(EUR)of shale oil wells is vital for efficient shale oil development.Although numerical simulations provide accurate predictions,their high time,data,and labor demands call for a swifter,yet precise,method.This study introduces the DuongeCNNeLSTM(D-C-L)model,which integrates a convolutional neural network(CNN)with a long short-term memory(LSTM)network and is grounded on the empirical Duong model for physical constraints.Compared to traditional approaches,the D-C-L model demonstrates superior precision,efficiency,and cost-effectiveness in predicting shale oil production.

Productivity simulation of hydraulically fractured wells based on hybrid local grid refinement and embedded discrete fracture model

Using current Embedded Discrete Fracture Models(EDFM) to predict the productivity of fractured wells has some drawbacks, such as not supporting corner grid, low precision in the near wellbore zone, and disregarding the heterogeneity of conductivity brought by non-uniform sand concentration. An EDFM is developed based on the corner grid, which enables high efficient calculation of the transmissibility between the embedded fractures and matrix grids, and calculation of the permeability of each polygon in the embedded fractures by the lattice data of the artificial fracture aperture. On this basis, a coupling method of local grid refinement(LGR) and embedded discrete fracture model is designed, which is verified by comparing the calculation results with the Discrete Fracture Network(DFN) method and fitting the actual production data of the first hydraulically fractured well in Iraq. By using this method and orthogonal experimental design, the optimization of the parameters of the first multi-stage fractured horizontal well in the same block is completed. The results show the proposed method has theoretical and practical significance for improving the adaptability of EDFM and the accuracy of productivity prediction of fractured wells, and enables the coupling of fracture modeling and numerical productivity simulation at reservoir scale.

Integrated Modelling of Microstructure Evolution and Mechanical Properties Prediction for Q&P Hot Stamping Process of Ultra‑High Strength Steel

High strength steel products with good ductility can be produced via Q&P hot stamping process,while the phase transformation of the process is more complicated than common hot stamping since two-step quenching and one-step carbon partitioning processes are involved.In this study,an integrated model of microstructure evolution relating to Q&P hot stamping was presented with a persuasively predicted results of mechanical properties.The transformation of diffusional phase and non-diffusional phase,including original austenite grain size individually,were considered,as well as the carbon partitioning process which affects the secondary martensite transformation temperature and the subsequent phase transformations.Afterwards,the mechanical properties including hardness,strength,and elongation were calculated through a series of theoretical and empirical models in accordance with phase contents.Especially,a modified elongation prediction model was generated ultimately with higher accuracy than the existed Mileiko’s model.In the end,the unified model was applied to simulate the Q&P hot stamping process of a U-cup part based on the finite element software LS-DYNA,where the calculated outputs were coincident with the measured consequences.

A production prediction method of single well in water flooding oilfield based on integrated temporal convolutional network model

Since the oil production of single well in water flooding reservoir varies greatly and is hard to predict, an oil production prediction method of single well based on temporal convolutional network(TCN) is proposed and verified. This method is started from data processing, the correspondence between water injectors and oil producers is determined according to the influence radius of the water injectors, the influence degree of a water injector on an oil producer in the month concerned is added as a model feature, and a Random Forest(RF) model is built to fill the dynamic data of water flooding. The single well history is divided into 4 stages according to its water cut, that is, low water cut, middle water cut, high water cut and extra-high water cut stages. In each stage, a TCN based prediction model is established, hyperparameters of the model are optimized by the Sparrow Search Algorithm(SSA). Finally, the models of the 4 stages are integrated into one whole-life model of the well for production prediction. The application of this method in Daqing Oilfield, NE China shows that:(1) Compared with conventional data processing methods, the data obtained by this processing method are more close to the actual production, and the data set obtained is more authentic and complete.(2) The TCN model has higher prediction accuracy than other 11 models such as Long Short Term Memory(LSTM).(3) Compared with the conventional full-life-cycle models, the model of integrated stages can significantly reduce the error of production prediction.

Production prediction at ultra-high water cut stage via Recurrent Neural Network

A deep learning method for predicting oil field production at ultra-high water cut stage from the existing oil field production data was presented,and the experimental verification and application effect analysis were carried out.Since the traditional Fully Connected Neural Network(FCNN)is incapable of preserving the correlation of time series data,the Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network,which is a kind of Recurrent Neural Network(RNN),was utilized to establish a model for oil field production prediction.By this model,oil field production can be predicted from the relationship between oil production index and its influencing factors and the trend and correlation of oil production over time.Production data of a medium and high permeability sandstone oilfield in China developed by water flooding was used to predict its production at ultra-high water cut stage,and the results were compared with the results from the traditional FCNN and water drive characteristic curves.The LSTM based on deep learning has higher precision,and gives more accurate production prediction for complex time series in oil field production.The LSTM model was used to predict the monthly oil production of another two oil fields.The prediction results are good,which verifies the versatility of the method.

3-D FRACTURE PROPAGATION SIMULATION AND PRODUCTION PREDICTION IN COALBED

In accordance with the fracturing and producing mechanism in coalbed methane well, and combining the knowledge of fluid mechanics, linear elastic fracture mechanics, thermal transfer, computing mathematics and software engineering, the three-dimensional hydraulic fracture propagating and dynamical production predicting models for coalbed methane well is put forward. The fracture propagation model takes the variation of rock mechanical properties and in-situ stress distribution into consideration. The dynamic performance prediction model takes the gas production mechanism into consideration. With these models, a three-dimensional hydraulic fracturing optimum design software for coalbed methane well is developed, and its practicality and reliability have been proved by ex-ample computation.

Development of an Instant Correction and Display System of Numerical Weather Prediction Products in China

This paper presents the development of numerical prediction products(NPP) correction and display system(NPPCDS) for rapid and effective post-processing and displaying of the T213 NPP(numerical prediction products of the medium range numerical weather prediction spectral model T213L31) through instant correction method. The NPPCDS consists of two modules: an automatic correction module and a graphical display module. The automatic correction module automatically corrects the T213 NPP at regularly scheduled time intervals, while the graphical display module interacts with users to display the T213 NPP and its correction results. The system helps forecasters extract the most relevant information at a quick glance without extensive post-processing. It is simple, easy to use, and computationally efficient, and has been running stably at Huludao Meteorological Bureau in Liaoning Province of China for the past three years. Because of its low computational costs, it is particularly useful for meteorological departments that lack advanced computing capacity and still need to make short-range weather forecasting.

Modelling Manure Production in Beef Calves: Development, Evaluation, and Application of a Complete vs. Simplified Prediction Model

There has been increased interest in quantifying the manure production of livestock, primarily driven by public authorities, who aim to evaluate the environmental impact of livestock production, but also at the farm level, to manage manure storage and availability of fertilizer for crop production. Moreover, current manure production estimates from intensively reared beef calves are higher than actual production due to changes in farming systems, advances in animal genetics and feed efficiency. This study aims to redefine and update manure production estimates in intensively reared beef calves to predict manure production as a policy and planning tool, as there are no current models available. A trial was conducted to collect data on manure production during the growing-finishing period (243 d) of 54 Limousine calves (from 346.7 to 674.0 kg live weight, LW). Such data were used to develop two models to predict manure excretion: (1) a complex mechanistic model (CompM), and (2) a simplified empirical model (SimpM). Both models were evaluated against an independent dataset including a total of 4,692 animals on 31 farms and 5 breeds. Results from CompM require interpretation because the model does not output a single value but a range of manure production (minimum, medium and maximum), and would therefore be more suitable for professional use. The SimpM could be considered simple, reliable, and versatile for predicting manure excretion at farm level. SimpM could be refined and improved by including data from other studies on beef cattle with distinct characteristics and management.

The Meteorological Prediction Model of Lemon Production in Anyue County Based on Correlation

Using the meteorological data during 1971- 2013 and lemon growth and yield data during 2003- 2013 in Anyue,the suitability problem of lemon growth and correlation problem between meteorological factors and lemon growth in Anyue area were studied. According to relevance between the selected meteorological factors and yield of lemon,meteorological prediction model of lemon yield was established in Anyue,and the prediction accuracy was higher. The research had certain guiding significance for management work of lemon production in Anyue area.

Shale gas production evaluation framework based on data-driven models

Increasing the production and utilization of shale gas is of great significance for building a clean and low-carbon energy system.Sharp decline of gas production has been widely observed in shale gas reservoirs.How to forecast shale gas production is still challenging due to complex fracture networks,dynamic fracture properties,frac hits,complicated multiphase flow,and multi-scale flow as well as data quality and uncertainty.This work develops an integrated framework for evaluating shale gas well production based on data-driven models.Firstly,a comprehensive dominated-factor system has been established,including geological,drilling,fracturing,and production factors.Data processing and visualization are required to ensure data quality and determine final data set.A shale gas production evaluation model is developed to evaluate shale gas production levels.Finally,the random forest algorithm is used to forecast shale gas production.The prediction accuracy of shale gas production level is higher than 95%based on the shale gas reservoirs in China.Forty-one wells are randomly selected to predict cumulative gas production using the optimal regression model.The proposed shale gas production evaluation frame-work overcomes too many assumptions of analytical or semi-analytical models and avoids huge computation cost and poor generalization for numerical modelling.

Subsection and superposition method for reservoir formation damage evaluation of complex-structure wells

Kinds of complex-structure wells can effectively improve production,which are widely used.However,in the process of drilling and completion,complex-structure wells with long drilling cycle and large exposed area of reservoir can lead to the fact that reservoir near wellbore is more vulnerable to the working fluid invasion,resulting in more serious formation damage.In order to quantitatively describe the reservoir formation damage in the construction of complex-structure well,taking the inclined well section as the research object,the coordinate transformation method and conformal transformation method are given according to the flow characteristics of reservoir near wellbore in anisotropic reservoir.Then the local skin factor in orthogonal plane of wellbore is deduced.Considering the un-even distribution of local skin factor along the wellbore,the oscillation decreasing model and empirical equation model of damage zone radius distribution along the wellbore direction are established and then the total skin factor model of the whole well is superimposed to realize the reservoir damage evaluation of complex-structure wells.Combining the skin factor model with the production model,the production of complex-structure wells can be predicted more accurately.The two field application cases show that the accuracy of the model can be more than 90%,which can also fully reflect the invasion characteristics of drilling and completion fluid in any well section of complex-structure wells in anisotropic reservoir,so as to further provide guidance for the scientific establish-ment of reservoir production system.