Numerical Simulation of the Relationship between the Anomaly of Subtropical High over East Asia and the Convective Activities in the Western Tropical Pacific

In this paper, a close relationship between the intraseasonal variation of subtropical high over East Asia and the convective activities around the South China Sea and the Philippines is analysed from OLR data.This relationship is studied by using the theory of wave propagating in a slowly varying medium and by using a quasi-geoslrophic, linear, spherical model and the IAP-GCM, respectively. The results show that when the SST is warming around the western tropical Pacific or the Philippines, the convective activities are intensified around the Philippines. As a consequence, the subtropical high will be intensified over East Asia. The computed results also show that when the anomaly of convective activities are caused around the Philippines, a teleconnection pattern of circulation anomalies will be caused over South Asia, East Asia and North America.

Proper Management of the Asia-Pacific Affairs—— On the Division-and-integration of the Asia-Pacific Region and the Regional Integration Strategy

The international administrative theory is the essential tool of the international and regional integration,but it lacks macro reference of history. Based on the regional society system of ancient China,this paper discusses international administrative tools including countries,nations and people,and makes comparison of the economic capital,administrative organization and institutional norm of Europe,America and Asia. Through research,this paper concludes that the regional theory of China has both historic and practical significance.

The Third Conference on Peace，Disarmament and Symbiosis in the Asia－Pacific Region towards 21st Century

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Decision Support for DCs Location and Distribute Range Planning: Case Study in Asia-Pacific Region

A major concern is to locate manufacturing plants and/or distribution centers to serve the needs of consumers widely and rapidly with reasonably distributive cost and flexible delivery time. The purpose of this research is to help enhance a decision support for three distribution center locations with different ranges of area in order that the distributors are able to serve appropriately the retailers in twelve large cities or capitals of the nine countries in Asia-Pacific region. The researcher applies the theory of supply chain and logistics management systems with Excel, Visual Basic and Genetic Algorithms programs to find the research results. The research results revealed that the interfaces of Excel, Visual Basic, and Genetic Algorithms programs helped decision support in distribution range selection for 3 distribution center locations. Each of which had different ranges of area for distribution with a rapidly, flexibly distributed time. However, variables resulting in a decision-making should be adjusted under certain circumstances for more reliable, specific needs.

Financial Ontology： Regional Basis and the Asia-Pacific System

Based on the Asia-Pacific mode of the regional finance,the ontology of the oriental philosophy has been developed into the theory of the regional ontology,and the financial basis and the Asia-Pacific system becomes the new civilization,new culture and new pattern for the cooperation between the countries in the Asia-Pacific area. This paper attempts to research on the new normal of the new mode and the new development of China.

Diabetes epidemic in the Asia pacific region:has hemoglobin A1C finally earned its place as a diagnostic tool?

Two-third of the world's population lives in the Asia Pacific region where prevalence of diabetes has reached epidemic proportion.With China and India being the most populous nations on the globe,it is believed that over 150 million diabetes reside in the region with more than 95%being of type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM).Furthermore,other Pacific islands in the region have high rales of T2DM including Tonga.Fiji.French Polynesia,and Nauru.The latter has the highest prevalence of T2DM per population in the world.Over the past two decades,in Australia and New Zealand,the prevalence of T2DM has more than doubled,mainly amongst the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and Maori peoples respectively.With the increasing prevalence of dialietes in the Asia Pacific region coupled with the limited number of resources,use of a reliable and effective mode of diagnosis for T3DVI is warranted.Yet to date,only New Zealand has adopted the American Diabetes Association recommendation of using hemoglobin A1C in the diagnosis of the disease.The aim of this review is to discuss the clinical usefulness of hemoglobin A1C and highlight its diagnostic role in the Asia Pacific region where T2DM is increasingly encountered.

Analysis of Special Education in the Asia Pacific Region

In recent years,the special education of all countries in the Asia Pacific has developed greatly.Most of the countries are developing the relevant special education law and policy or plan,setting up special management and coordination mechanism,school education and teacher training for further development.The occupation technology education has attracted extensive at?tention,the integration of education and social cooperation is becoming more and more attention.In this paper,the similarities and differences on Legal policy and planning,Organization and institution building and education and training in the Asia Pacific Region,such as Indonesia,Japan,Korean and Singapore are compared and discussed.The questions and solutions are proposed to promote the development on the special education in the Asia Pacific Region.Strengthening international exchanges and draw?ing on advanced experience is the most important methods.

The Distribution of Petroleum Resources and Characteristics of Main Petroliferous Basins along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road

The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative, abbreviated as the Belt and Road Initiative, is a primary development strategy of China＇s future international cooperation. Especially, the energy resource cooperation, including oil and gas resources cooperation, is an important part of this initiative. The Belt and Road has undergone complicated geological evolution, and contains abundant mineral resources such as oil, gas, coal, uranium, iron, copper, gold and manganese ore resources. Among these, Africa holds 7.8% of the world＇s total proven oil reserves. The oil and gas resources in Africa are relatively concentrated, with an overall low exploration degree and small consumption demand. Nigeria and Libya contain the most abundant oil resources in Africa, accounting for 2.2% and 2.9% of the world＇s total reserves, respectively. Nigeria and Algeria hold the richest natural gas resources in Africa, occupying 2.8% and 2.4% of the world＇s total reserves, respectively. Africa＇s oil and gas resources are mainly concentrated in Egypt, Sultan and Western Sahara regions in the northern Africa, and the Gulf of Guinea, Niger River and Congo River area in the western Africa. The Russia--Central Asia area holds rich petroleum resources in Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The potential oil and gas areas include the West Siberia Basin, East Siberia Basin and sea continental shelf in Russia, the northern and central Caspian Basin in Kazakhstan, the right bank of the Amu-Darya Basin, the East Karakum uplift and the South Caspian Basin in Turkmenistan, and the Amu-Daria Basin, Fergana Basin, Afghan-Tajik Basin and North Ustyurt Basin in Uzbekistan. The Middle East oil and gas resources are mainly distributed in the Zagros foreland basin and Arabian continental margin basin, and the main oil-producing countries include Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq. The Asia Pacific region is a new oil and gas consumption center, with rapid growth of oil and gas demand. In 2012, this region consumed about 33.6% of the world＇s total oil consumption and 18.9% of the world＇s total natural gas consumption, which has been ranked the world＇s largest oil and gas consumption center. The oil and gas resources are concentrated in China, Indosinian, Malaysia, Australia and India. The abundant European proven crude oil reserves are in Norway, Britain and Denmark and also rich natural gas resources in Norway, Holland and Britain. Norway and Britain contain about 77.5% of European proven oil reserves, which accounts for only 0.9% of the world＇s proven reserves. The Europe includes main petroliferous basins of the Voring Basin, Anglo-Dutch Basin, Northwest German Basin, Northeast German-Polish Basin and Carpathian Basin. According to the analysis of source rocks, reservoir rocks, cap rocks and traps for the main petroliferous basins, the potential oil and gas prospecting targets in the Belt and Road are mainly the Zagros Basin and Arabic Platform in the Middle East, the East Barents Sea Basin and the East Siberia Basin in Russia-Central Asia, the Niger Delta Basin, East African rift system and the Australia Northwest Shelf. With the development of oil and gas theory and exploration technology, unconventional petroleum resources will play an increasingly important role in oil and gas industry.

Hepatitis D: Scenario in the Asia-Pacifi c region

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection is present worldwide and affects all age groups. Around 18 million people are estimated to be infected with HDV. An important trend in HDV infection is global decline. HDV prevalence has decreased significantly in Europe since the 1970s and 1980s when it was f irst reported. The Asia-Pacif ic region now seems to be where HDV is a major health concern. There is a lack of available data from most of the countries from this region; hence, the true status of HDV cannot be determined. In South Asia, most of the countries have conditions that are favorable for the spread of hepatitis B and other related infections. Countries like Pakistan and Iran have shown an increase in HDV prevalence over a period of time. Other countries and region like China, Turkey, Australia, Japan, India and Taiwan, some of which had very high HDV prevalence in the past, have shown a decline in the incidence, but high prevalence persists in some. Intravenous drug abusers, homosexual men and women, prostitutes, and people on hemodialysis are the groups with very high HDV prevalence.

Climatological characteristics of the tropics in China:climate classification schemes between German scientists and Huang Bingwei

Reviewing some important German scientists who have developed climatic regionalization schemes either on a global or Chinese scale, their various definitions of the tropical climate characteristics in China are discussed and compared with Huang Bingwei's climate classification scheme and the identification of the tropical climate therein. It can be seen that, due to different methodological approaches of the climatic regionalization schemes, the definitions of the tropics vary and hence also their spatial distribution in China. However, it is found that the tropical climate type occupies only a peripheral part of southern China, though it firmly represents a distinctive type of climate that is subsequently associated with a great economic importance for China. As such, the tropical climate type was mostly identified with its agro-climatological significance, that is by giving favourable growing conditions all-year round for perennial crops with a great heat demand. Tropical climate is, hence, conventionally regarded to be governed by all-year round summer conditions 'where winter never comes'.

Lessons from a Xi'an classroom:Bridging the East and West through learning and collaboration

As Regional President for Asia Pacif ic at Visa,I often think about how we can help build a more connected and cohesive world.W hile technology is critical,I believe that global perspectives,knowledge sharing as well as a mutual understanding of and respect for different cultures are just as important.

Cross-Cultural Bioethics at an International University in Japan

Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University （APU） in Beppu city, Japan has a large body of students from well over 90 countries, especially from the Asia Pacific region, including Japanese, Korean, Chinese, Thai, Vietnamese, and Indonesian students. To improve analytical thinking skills among college students, a course on ＂bioethics＂ was introduced and offered in two consecutive semesters to undergraduate students for which 245 students registered at each semester. The course was taught in the form of 14 lecture and discussion sessions, each for 95 minutes based on the content of A Cross-Cultural Introduction to Bioethics （2006） edited by Darryl Macer, and reviewed a wide variety of ethical and bioethical issues. In the next semester, the students received a similar teaching content that was rearranged to reflect the 15 universal principles of bioethics and human rights covered in the Bioethics Core Curriculum （2008）. Case studies were also added to each unit of the Core Curriculum with the support of the UNESCO＇s Asia Pacific Regional Office, Bangkok （Case Studies for Bioethics 2010）. To evaluate the results of teaching and to compare the achieved objectives between the two groups of students, a short questionnaire was given to all students who finished the course and took up the final written examination. In the whole, 454 students （225 in group I and 229 in group 2） completed the course and took the final examination and 427 （218 in group 1 and 209 in group 2） responded to the questionnaire which inquired into their interest in the discussion of bioethical issues： why they believed they were important, and what they had learned through them. The results of the questionnaire have been examined and compared to evaluate the success of ＂bioethics＂ in stimulating the interest and thinking ability of the students and enriching their experience of a cross-cultural discussion over bioethical issues using universal principles as general guidance. The result of this examination was so impressive that from 2011 bioethics has been formalized into the reformed curriculum of our international school.

美国战略重心东移:战略变迁、战略逻辑与战略影响

冷战后,美国战略重心东移亚太地区的趋势已成为美国推进全球战略的重要特征,其间美国历届政府对亚太地区的战略定位呈现不断增强的态势,基于亚太地区在全球政治经济格局中地位的提升,美国不断加大了对亚太地区的战略资源投入,意在维持和巩固美国主导的国际秩序和美国的单极霸权,其所形成的战略构架主要体现在美国加强在亚太地区的前沿军事存在已常态化,军事威慑力显著增强;不断加大在亚太地区经贸合作中的介入和影响,推进在经贸领域的战略渗透;对中国发展进程的加快表现的战略焦虑和为防止“美国衰落”及为巩固其霸权地位,使得美国对华关系从确定“接触”和“建设性关系”演进到“对华全面战略竞争”,对华遏制的成分不断凸显,由此中国不断增大的发展成就和国际影响力成为美国战略重心东移驱动因素中最重要的变量。时至今日,强化联盟体系、实施战略围堵、注重规则制衡、聚焦高新科技竞争与封堵已成为美国对华遏制和防范的新动向。在意识形态领域,美国从来没有放弃对中国的和平演变,通过全方位的意识形态渗透和推进价值观外交成为美国构筑联合制华阵营的重要策略。同时,中美作为世界重要大国,面临人类共同的危机和挑战,基于两国间共同的利益交汇点,在共存环境下双方也存在寻求合作而非对抗的趋向和空间。中美关系作为当今世界最重要的双边关系,早已超越双边范畴,在很大程度上决定着世界发展的走向和未来国际秩序的构建。

中美博弈:近昔和当今及对中国战略的意涵

过去15年里,中美关系的首要特征是博弈而非协调。两国博弈先在战略阵线开启,继而在战略、经贸、高技术和意识形态四条主要阵线展开。就中美博弈总体而言,美国处于“防守型”战略态势,美国认为它长时期拥有的重大优势地位一个又一个地丧失或被侵蚀,首要动能在中国一边。中共十八大以来,中国逐渐成为一个急剧腾升的强国。大为增强的国力,使中国更加坚定了自信和抱负。中国内外发力,争取在世界政治经济和全球治理的某些问题领域参与引领甚或单独引领,实现在亚洲大陆以及发展中世界的经济和外交优势,大致取得在西太平洋的对美战略和军事优势,进一步地,对第一至第二岛链之间的战略空间的控扼能力愈益被视为必要。回顾奥巴马、特朗普和拜登三届美国政府的对华态势和政策,对未来中美关系应做好准备应对可能的疾风暴雨。

美日同盟调整:现代化、一体化和多边化

同盟一般会伴随实力的变化发生调整。美日同盟的调整表现为:一是同盟的现代化,美国要求日本承担更多责任,反映了美国由于霸权衰退不得不谋求日本发挥更大作用的现实;二是同盟的一体化,美日两国在军事领域加强共同指挥和作战机制的统合,在武器部署上也实现一体化,导致日本进一步失去自主性;三是同盟的多边化,美国为了推行“印太战略”遏制中国,鼓励日本与其他地区盟国和伙伴国建立军事联系,除了印度、澳大利亚和东盟国家之外,日本也在美国的默许下与欧洲国家进行军事合作,试图在亚太地区建立一个以美日同盟为核心的多边战略集团。美日同盟的调整,给亚洲地区的和平与稳定带来不确定因素,也使日本在美国的战车上越绑越紧。

盟友在美国亚太联盟转型中的作用与限度

美国亚太联盟转型是地区权力对比变化和美国战略调整的结果。在此过程中美国盟友也扮演了不同角色,分别是:核心盟友充当地区霸权代理者,推动联盟承诺的扩展与深化;中间盟友充当大国博弈中间人,通过多边安排赢得对冲空间;与中国有冲突的盟友则试图利用联盟实现自身利益。总体上盟友间的联系提高了信息沟通效率,强化了盟友间的共识,提供了合作节点,整合了联盟内部资源,同时也反映了美国整合能力不足,以及安全承诺的不稳定。

多层级区域间关系机制对全球治理的外溢效用——兼论东北亚区域间合作

为探究新区域主义对接全球治理的可能性,搭建了多层级区域间关系机制外溢理论模型,并借此探讨东北亚区域内新区域主义理论发展与机制构建的现实路径。研究发现:东北亚区域间合作机制的构建虽已具备一定积极条件,但由于区域内相关国家虽在经济上相互依赖,而在政治、安全上缺乏互信,导致域内多边关系整体稳定而相关双边关系间的结构性矛盾的长期存在;由于近年来日本与韩国推行排他性、竞争性的区域性战略,东北亚区域一体化合作机制的建立任重道远。为此,日韩应与中方相向而行,充分发挥中日韩三方会谈机制的黏合作用,通过“一带一路”倡议联通区域内国家,以更好的区域间合作对接全球治理。

中国股市在亚太地区的角色定位:基于油价冲击的风险溢出视角

国际油价波动对股票市场的影响研究一直备受关注,但对亚太和中国股市的风险溢出效应研究还有待拓展。鉴于冲击类型不同,本文将日度频率的油价波动分解为供给冲击、需求冲击和风险冲击,并基于基准回归模型与动态GARCH-Copula-CoVaR模型考察三类冲击对亚太和中国股市的影响与风险溢出。回归结果表明,需求冲击和风险冲击引起的油价上涨能显著提高两地区股市的平均收益,而供给冲击对此几乎无影响。从风险溢出视角看,中国股市在亚太地区主要扮演被动接受风险传染的角色:从需求冲击看,中国股市更易受到影响,呈现出风险净溢入的角色;但从风险冲击看,中国股市并不是联动亚太股市整体波动的源头,角色较为独立。结合上下行风险视角发现,两地区股市的上行风险总是显著大于下行风险,呈现出明显的非对称特征。但与亚太股市相比,中国股市风险值的波动更为剧烈。本文认为,辨析不同成因、来源的油价冲击,前瞻性预警亚太地区的油价波动风险,对于稳定我国股市、防范金融风险以及夯实我国在亚太地区的经济治理话语权具有重要意义。

美国“印太战略”背景下的亚太区域合作变局与走向

美国印太区域战略的核心是对华围堵。美国通过区域“经济议题安全化”与“安全议题扩散化”策略,驱动区域国家增加对华“离心力”与对美“粘合力”,提高中国推进区域合作的成本。因而,美国“印太战略”布局下的亚太区域合作呈现出区域合作议题安全化、复合化和嵌套化,经济协作和安全泛化架构上的二元割裂愈加凸显,域内集体身份认知分散割裂加剧,区域合作议程从“软规范”转向“硬约束”等新特征。随着美国印太区域战略加速布局,东盟的区域中心地位将受到冲击,日本更可能成为美国亚太区域政策的“积极策应者”。中国须在反对区域割裂、夯实区域经贸联系、妥善应对小多边机制等方面有所作为。

浅论战后初期美国与英国亚太安全体制的分歧

20世纪初,美国实力增强、国际影响力提高,华盛顿决策者紧锣密鼓“恢复已经被日本扩张打破的远东地区的平衡”,这加快了美国从“大洋”走向“大陆”、再走向“大洋”的进程。英国在二战后霸权衰落以及自治领土要求脱离控制的状况与美国形成强烈反差。战后美国向亚洲太平洋地区进一步蔓延,使得该地区的既有“领主”英国发出反对的声音,拒绝美国一手“包办”亚洲太平洋地区的防御政策,不承认将英国排除在外的关于该地区的防御措施。值得注意的是,美英的竞争有两个特点:(一)共产主义政权的出现在美英霸权争夺中扮演着重要的角色;(二)美英矛盾与资本主义和共产主义之间的矛盾不同,表现为非根本性矛盾,美英之间具有共同的文化、价值观与族群基础,两者常常在妥协中实现合作,而并非发展到相互对抗的地步。