An novel identification method of the environmental risk sources for surfacewater pollution accidents in chemical industrial parks

The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgentdemand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extentdepending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of thewhole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causingwater pollution accidents is presented. The newlydeveloped approach, by analyzing and stimulating thewhole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses,were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park （CIP） along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China,was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that therewere four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plantwould lead to the most serious impact on the surroundingwater environment. This potential accidentwould severelydamage the ecosystem up to3.8 kmdownstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over adistance stretching to 73.7 kmdownstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.

Risk assessment of mountain tourism on the Western Sichuan Plateau,China

As an important site for tourism activities,mountainous areas may generate greater tourism risks than plain areas due to potential natural disasters,social issues,scenic area management,and tourist behavior.Western Sichuan Plateau is mostly mountainous area and tourism is its pillar industry,Therefore,the assessment of the tourism risks on the Western Sichuan Plateau is of academic value and practical significance.In this study,we use statistical and remote sensing data,fishbone diagram,and the entropy weighting method to construct a tourism risk evaluation model and classify risks into different levels,and we also use a geographic information system(GIS)for spatial mapping to quantify and spatialize the results.The objectives are 1)to identify the risk sources in the Western Sichuan Plateau and analyze their causal mechanisms,precisely reveal the distribution of tourism risks in the study area;2)improve the precision of tourism risk evaluation in scenic areas and analyze the causes and spatial distribution patterns of tourism risks and propose targeted management measures.This study found that the evaluation results of the four elements of hazard,exposure,vulnerability,and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity on the Western Sichuan Plateau showed significant spatial variability,depending on the natural conditions and the quantity difference of tourism resources in different regions.In addition,the tourism risk is low in most areas of the Western Sichuan Plateau,and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity is higher in areas with high tourism risk where attractions are densely populated and tourism is concentrated.Our study can provide a reference for future analyses of tourism risks in mountainous tourist areas such as in China and worldwide.

The risk evaluation of mine coal-dust explosion based on BP neural network

Introduced the theory of three types of hazardous sources, and it recognized and analysed such three types of hazardous sources as the factor of inherent hazardous source, factor of inducing hazardous source and factor of men, which affect the safety and reliability of coal-dust explosion risk system and then builds up the risk factor indices of coal-dust explosion according to analysis of conditions inducing the coal-dust explosion. It fixes the risk degree of coal-dust explosion risk system by analyzing loss probability and loss scope of risk system and by means of the probabilistic hazard evaluation method and risk matrix method, etc.. According to the feature of strong capability of nonlinear approximation of BP neural network, the paper designed the structure of BP neural network for the risk evaluation of the mine coal-dust explosion with BP neural network. And the weight of the network was finally determined by training the given samples so that the risk degree of samples to be measured could be exactly evaluated and the risk of mine coal-dust explosion could be alarmed in good time.

Exposure measurement, risk assessment and source identification for exposure of traffic assistants to particle-bound PAHs in Tianjin, China

To investigate the levels of exposure to particulate-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon （PAH） and to estimate the risk these levels pose to traffic assistants （TAs） in Tianjin （a rnegacity in North China）, a measurement campaign （33 all-day exposure samples, 25 occupational-exposure samples and 10 indoor samples） was conducted to characterize the TAs＇ exposure to PAHs, assess the cancer risk and identify the potential sources of exposure. The average total exposure concentration of 14 PAHs was approximately 2871 ＋ 928 ng/rn3 （on-duty）, and 1622 ＋ 457 ng/m3 （all-day）. The indoor PAHs level was 1257 ＋ 107 ng/m3. After 8000 Monte Carlo simulations, the cancer risk resulting from exposure to PAHs was found to be approximately 1.05 x 10-4. A multivariate analysis was applied to identify the potential sources, and the results showed that, in addition to vehicle exhaust, coal combustion and cooking fumes were also another two important contributors to personal PAH exposure. The diagnostic ratios of PAH compounds agree with the source apportionment results derived from principal component analysis.

Risk Information Sources for Snow Disaster Risk Preparedness in Scotland

Heavy snow disruptions are common and costly occurrences in the UK,including Scotland.Yet,heavy snow remains an underresearched aspect of disaster risks in Scotland.This study critically examined the 2018 heavy snow event in Scotland referred to as the“Beast from the East”(BfE)in order to explore the different sources of information used by the public in preparation for and response to heavy snow emergencies.Our study also examined the effectiveness of BfE risk communication between authorities and the public and sought to determine if there is a relationship between risk information received and the intention to mitigate risk.Data were collected through a semistructured survey from(n=180)residents of the Annandale and Eskdale region of Dumfries and Galloway,Scotland.Our analysis shows that public authority information sources were the most sought-after information sources,followed by online and web sources.We found statistically significant differences between groups(such as age,gender,and mobility/disability)in terms of using risk information sources.Further analysis shows that the relationship between information received and the intention to mitigate risks is not linear but influenced by intervening variables such as work pressures,financial commitment,and stakeholders’expectations.We argue that where full adherence to official risk advice is required,policymakers should carefully consider issues around these three factors.

Risk Assessment and Management of Electricity Markets: A Review with Suggestions

Power industry deregulation has changed the determination of electricity prices from administration approval to market clearing.Affected by multiple random factors,the market prices may fluctuate sharply or significantly increase under extreme conditions,jeopardizing the normal operation of markets.In order to effectively deal with market risks,it is essential to develop the corresponding risk-control mechanisms,especially for spot market pilots.Therefore,this paper presents an overview on the risk assessment and management schemes which are widely used in the electricity markets.First,the key issues for evaluating market risks through inherent uncertainties and market power are summarized,including analysis models and quantitative metrics.Moreover,a comprehensive review of risk management and market supervision in typical electricity markets is presented.Specifically,a multi-time risk-control framework utilized by regulators is introduced to demonstrate the available schemes to reduce market risks.In addition,the various derivative contracts and portfolio optimizations are reviewed to help market participants hedge against market risks.Finally,suggestions for the development of risk management measures in spot market pilots are proposed.The summarized experience in this paper can provide useful references and guidelines for developing risk-control mechanisms in electricity markets.

Pollution characteristics and health risk assessment of benzene homologues in ambient air in the northeastern urban area of Beijing, China

Ambient benzene homologues were measured at a site in the northeastern urban area of Beijing, China, from August 24 to September 4, 2012 by SUMMA canister sampling followed by laboratory determination using cryogenic cold trap pre-concentration-GC-MS/FID, and their health risks were also assessed. Daily total benzene homologues ranged from 0.99 to 49.71 μg/m3 with an average of 11.98 μg/m3. Benzene homologues showed higher concentrations in the morning and evening than that at noontime. Comparison with previous studies revealed a trend of decrease for ambient benzene homologues probably due to the effective emission control in Beijing in recent years. Vehicular exhaust was the main source while volatilization of paints and solvents also made substantial contributions. Health risk assessment showed that BTEX （benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, o-xylene, m-xylene and p-xylene） and styrene had no appreciable adverse non-cancer health risks for the exposed population, while benzene has potential cancer risk of 1.34E-05. Available data from cities in China all implied that benzene imposes relatively higher cancer risk on the exposed populations and therefore strict control measures should be taken to further lower ambient benzene levels in China.