Short-Term Household Load Forecasting Based on Attention Mechanism and CNN-ICPSO-LSTM

Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a single prediction model is hard to capture temporal features effectively, resulting in diminished predictionaccuracy. In this study, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates attention mechanism, convolution neuralnetwork (CNN), improved chaotic particle swarm optimization (ICPSO), and long short-term memory (LSTM), isproposed for short-term household load forecasting. Firstly, the CNN model is employed to extract features fromthe original data, enhancing the quality of data features. Subsequently, the moving average method is used for datapreprocessing, followed by the application of the LSTM network to predict the processed data. Moreover, the ICPSOalgorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of LSTM, aimed at boosting the model’s running speed andaccuracy. Finally, the attention mechanism is employed to optimize the output value of LSTM, effectively addressinginformation loss in LSTM induced by lengthy sequences and further elevating prediction accuracy. According tothe numerical analysis, the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model have been verified. It canexplore data features adeptly, achieving superior prediction accuracy compared to other forecasting methods forthe household load exhibiting significant fluctuations across different seasons.

A Levenberg–Marquardt Based Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is part and parcel of theefficient working of power grid stations. Accurate forecasts help to detect thefault and enhance grid reliability for organizing sufficient energy transactions.STLF ranges from an hour ahead prediction to a day ahead prediction. Variouselectric load forecasting methods have been used in literature for electricitygeneration planning to meet future load demand. A perfect balance regardinggeneration and utilization is still lacking to avoid extra generation and misusageof electric load. Therefore, this paper utilizes Levenberg–Marquardt(LM) based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique to forecast theshort-term electricity load for smart grids in a much better, more precise,and more accurate manner. For proper load forecasting, we take the mostcritical weather parameters along with historical load data in the form of timeseries grouped into seasons, i.e., winter and summer. Further, the presentedmodel deals with each season’s load data by splitting it into weekdays andweekends. The historical load data of three years have been used to forecastweek-ahead and day-ahead load demand after every thirty minutes makingload forecast for a very short period. The proposed model is optimized usingthe Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm to achieve results withcomparable statistics. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Root MeanSquared Error (RMSE), R2, and R are used to evaluate the model. Comparedwith other recent machine learning-based mechanisms, our model presentsthe best experimental results with MAPE and R2 scores of 1.3 and 0.99,respectively. The results prove that the proposed LM-based ANN modelperforms much better in accuracy and has the lowest error rates as comparedto existing work.

Research on Short-Term Load Forecasting of Distribution Stations Based on the Clustering Improvement Fuzzy Time Series Algorithm

An improved fuzzy time series algorithmbased on clustering is designed in this paper.The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations.Firstly,the K-means clustering method is used to cluster the data,and the midpoint of two adjacent clustering centers is taken as the dividing point of domain division.On this basis,the data is fuzzed to form a fuzzy time series.Secondly,a high-order fuzzy relation with multiple antecedents is established according to the main measurement indexes of power load,which is used to predict the short-term trend change of load in the distribution stations.Matlab/Simulink simulation results show that the load forecasting errors of the typical fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−50,20]and[−50,30],while the load forecasting errors of the improved fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−20,15]and[−20,25].It shows that the fuzzy time series algorithm improved by clustering improves the prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the short-term load trend of distribution stations.

Short-Term Power Load Forecasting with Hybrid TPA-BiLSTM Prediction Model Based on CSSA

Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural network model based on the temporal pattern attention(TPA)mechanism.Firstly,based on the grey relational analysis,datasets similar to forecast day are obtained.Secondly,thebidirectional LSTM layermodels the data of thehistorical load,temperature,humidity,and date-type and extracts complex relationships between data from the hidden row vectors obtained by the BiLSTM network,so that the influencing factors(with different characteristics)can select relevant information from different time steps to reduce the prediction error of the model.Simultaneously,the complex and nonlinear dependencies between time steps and sequences are extracted by the TPA mechanism,so the attention weight vector is constructed for the hidden layer output of BiLSTM and the relevant variables at different time steps are weighted to influence the input.Finally,the chaotic sparrow search algorithm(CSSA)is used to optimize the hyperparameter selection of the model.The short-term power load forecasting on different data sets shows that the average absolute errors of short-termpower load forecasting based on our method are 0.876 and 4.238,respectively,which is lower than other forecastingmethods,demonstrating the accuracy and stability of our model.

Theory Study and Application of the BP-ANN Method for Power Grid Short-Term Load Forecasting

Aiming at the low accuracy problem of power system short-term load forecasting by traditional methods, a back-propagation artificial neural network （BP-ANN） based method for short-term load forecasting is presented in this paper. The forecast points are related to prophase adjacent data as well as the periodical long-term historical load data. Then the short-term load forecasting model of Shanxi Power Grid （China） based on BP-ANN method and correlation analysis is established. The simulation model matches well with practical power system load, indicating the BP-ANN method is simple and with higher precision and practicality.

Forecasting of Short-term Load based on LMD and BBO-RBF Model

Short-term load forecasting is a basis of power system dispatching and operation. In order to improve the short term power load precision, a novel approach for short-term load forecasting is presented based on local mean decomposition (LMD) and the radial basis function neural network method (RBFNN). Firstly, the decomposition of LMD method based on characteristics of load data then the decomposed data are respectively predicted by using the RBF network model and predicted by using the BBO-RBF network model. The simulation results show that the RBF network model optimized by using BBO algorithm is optimized in error performance index, and the prediction accuracy is higher and more effective.

Short-term load forecasting based on fuzzy neural network

The fuzzy neural network is applied to the short-term load forecasting. The fuzzy rules and fuzzy membership functions of the network are obtained through fuzzy neural network learming. Three inference algorithms, i.e. themultiplicative inference, the maximum inference and the minimum inference, are used for comparison. The learningalgorithms corresponding to the inference methods are derived from back-propagation algorithm. To validate the fuzzyneural network model, the network is used to Predict short-term load by compaing the network output against the realload data from a local power system supplying electricity to a large steel manufacturer. The experimental results aresatisfactory.

Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Radial Basis Function Neural Network

An accurate short-term forecasting method for load of electric power system can help the electric power system’s operator to reduce the risk of unreliability of electricity supply. This paper proposed a radial basis function (RBF) neural network method to forecast the short-term load of electric power system. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the method is tested on the practical load data information of the Tai power system. The good agreements between the realistic values and forecasting values are obtained;the numerical results show that the proposed forecasting method is accurate and reliable.

Deep Learning Network for Energy Storage Scheduling in Power Market Environment Short-Term Load Forecasting Model

In the electricity market,fluctuations in real-time prices are unstable,and changes in short-term load are determined by many factors.By studying the timing of charging and discharging,as well as the economic benefits of energy storage in the process of participating in the power market,this paper takes energy storage scheduling as merely one factor affecting short-term power load,which affects short-term load time series along with time-of-use price,holidays,and temperature.A deep learning network is used to predict the short-term load,a convolutional neural network(CNN)is used to extract the features,and a long short-term memory(LSTM)network is used to learn the temporal characteristics of the load value,which can effectively improve prediction accuracy.Taking the load data of a certain region as an example,the CNN-LSTM prediction model is compared with the single LSTM prediction model.The experimental results show that the CNN-LSTM deep learning network with the participation of energy storage in dispatching can have high prediction accuracy for short-term power load forecasting.

Load-forecasting method for IES based on LSTM and dynamic similar days with multi-features

To fully exploit the rich characteristic variation laws of an integrated energy system(IES)and further improve the short-term load-forecasting accuracy,a load-forecasting method is proposed for an IES based on LSTM and dynamic similar days with multi-features.Feature expansion was performed to construct a comprehensive load day covering the load and meteorological information with coarse and fine time granularity,far and near time periods.The Gaussian mixture model(GMM)was used to divide the scene of the comprehensive load day,and gray correlation analysis was used to match the scene with the coarse time granularity characteristics of the day to be forecasted.Five typical days with the highest correlation with the day to be predicted in the scene were selected to construct a“dynamic similar day”by weighting.The key features of adjacent days and dynamic similar days were used to forecast multi-loads with fine time granularity using LSTM.Comparing the static features as input and the selection method of similar days based on non-extended single features,the effectiveness of the proposed prediction method was verified.

Convolution Neural Network-based Load Model Parameter Selection Considering Short-term Voltage Stability

The recently proposed ambient signal-based load modeling approach offers an important and effective idea to study the time-varying and distributed characteristics of power loads.Meanwhile,it also brings new problems.Since the load model parameters of power loads can be obtained in real-time for each load bus,the numerous identified parameters make parameter application difficult.In order to obtain the parameters suitable for off-line applications,load model parameter selection(LMPS)is first introduced in this paper.Meanwhile,the convolution neural network(CNN)is adopted to achieve the selection purpose from the perspective of short-term voltage stability.To begin with,the field phasor measurement unit(PMU)data from China Southern Power Grid are obtained for load model parameter identification,and the identification results of different substations during different times indicate the necessity of LMPS.Meanwhile,the simulation case of Guangdong Power Grid shows the process of LMPS,and the results from the CNNbased LMPS confirm its effectiveness.

Multipath Selection Algorithm Based on Dynamic Flow Prediction

Traditional traffic management techniques appear to be incompetent in complex data center networks, so proposes a load balancing strategy based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and quantum annealing by Software Defined Network (SDN) to dynamically predict the traffic and comprehensively consider the current and predicted load of the network in order to select the optimal forwarding path and balance the network load. Experiments have demonstrated that the algorithm achieves significant improvement in both system throughput and average packet loss rate for the purpose of improving network quality of service.

Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Using a Combination of Neural Networks and Fuzzy Inference

This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na-ture of electricity prices on the time domain by clustering the input data into time ranges where the variation trends are maintained. Due to the imprecise nature of cluster boundaries a fuzzy inference technique is em-ployed to handle data that lies at the intersections. As a necessary step in forecasting prices the anticipated electricity demand at the target time is estimated first using a separate ANN. The Australian New-South Wales electricity market data was used to test the system. The developed system shows considerable im-provement in performance compared with approaches that regard price data as a single continuous time se-ries, achieving MAPE of less than 2% for hours with steady prices and 8% for the clusters covering time pe-riods with price spikes.

Short-term load forecasting model based on gated recurrent unit and multi-head attention

Short-term load forecasting(STLF)plays a crucial role in the smart grid.However,it is challenging to capture the long-time dependence and the nonlinear relationship due to the comprehensive fluctuations of the electrical load.In this paper,an STLF model based on gated recurrent unit and multi-head attention(GRU-MA)is proposed to address the aforementioned problems.The proposed model accommodates the time series and nonlinear relationship of load data through gated recurrent unit(GRU)and exploits multi-head attention(MA)to learn the decisive features and long-term dependencies.Additionally,the proposed model is compared with the support vector regression(SVR)model,the recurrent neural network and multi-head attention(RNN-MA)model,the long short-term memory and multi-head attention(LSTM-MA)model,the GRU model,and the temporal convolutional network(TCN)model using the public dataset of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014(GEFCOM2014).The results demonstrate that the GRU-MA model has the best prediction accuracy.

Detection and Defense Method Against False Data Injection Attacks for Distributed Load Frequency Control System in Microgrid

In the realm of microgrid(MG),the distributed load frequency control(LFC)system has proven to be highly susceptible to the negative effects of false data injection attacks(FDIAs).Considering the significant responsibility of the distributed LFC system for maintaining frequency stability within the MG,this paper proposes a detection and defense method against unobservable FDIAs in the distributed LFC system.Firstly,the method integrates a bi-directional long short-term memory(Bi LSTM)neural network and an improved whale optimization algorithm(IWOA)into the LFC controller to detect and counteract FDIAs.Secondly,to enable the Bi LSTM neural network to proficiently detect multiple types of FDIAs with utmost precision,the model employs a historical MG dataset comprising the frequency and power variances.Finally,the IWOA is utilized to optimize the proportional-integral-derivative(PID)controller parameters to counteract the negative impacts of FDIAs.The proposed detection and defense method is validated by building the distributed LFC system in Simulink.

基于人工神经网络的日负荷预测方法的研究

基于人工神经网络原理，设计了一个三层的ＢＰ网络模型。充分利用了神经网络高度非线性建模能力，实现电力系统的短期负荷预测。文中对样本数据进行了预处理，以及在算法中引入附加冲量项，以提高训练速度。预测仿真结果证明使用人工神经网络方法进行短期负荷预测是可行的。

Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Big Data Technologies

With the construction of smart grid,lots of renewable energy resources such as wind and solar are deployed in power system.It might make the power system load varied complex than before which will bring difficulties in short-term load forecasting area.To overcome this issue,this paper proposes a new short-term load forecasting framework based on big data technologies.First,a cluster analysis is performed to classify daily load patterns for individual loads using smart meter data.Next,an association analysis is used to determine critical influential factors.This is followed by the application of a decision tree to establish classification rules.Then,appropriate forecasting models are chosen for different load patterns.Finally,the forecasted total system load is obtained through an aggregation of an individual load’s forecasting results.Case studies using real load data show that the proposed new framework can guarantee the accuracy of short-term load forecasting within required limits.

Short-term Load Forecasting of Regional Distribution Network Based on Generalized Regression Neural Network Optimized by Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm

Short-term load forecasting of regional distribution network is the key to the economic operation of smart distribution systems,which not only requires high accuracy and fast calculation speed,but also has a diversity of influential factors and strong randomness.This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting model for regional distribution network combining the maximum information coefficient,factor analysis,gray wolf optimization,and generalized regression neural network(MIC-FA-GWO-GRNN).To screen and decrease the dimension of the multiple-input features of the short-term load forecasting model,MIC is first used to quantify the non-linear correlation between the load and input features,and to eliminate the ineffective features,and then FA is used to reduce the dimension of the screened input features on the premise of preserving the main information of input features.After that the high-precision short-term丨oad forecasting based on GWO-GRNN model is realized.GRNN is used to regressively analyze the input features after screening and dimension reduction,and the parameter of GRNN is optimized by using the GWO,which has strong global searching ability and fast convergence.Finally a case study of a regional distribution network in Tianjin,China verifies the accuracy and applicability of the proposed forecasting model.

A Hybrid FCW-EMD and KF-BA-SVM Based Model for Short-term Load Forecasting

This paper proposes a hybrid short-term load forecasting method,which is based on the fuzzy combination weights as well as the empirical mode decomposition process(FCW-EMD),and support vector machine optimized via the Bat algorithm as well as the Kalman filtering process(KF-BA-SVM).The subjective weight is presented as a new theory and is applied to capture the inherent correlation effectively among hourly loads.Based on the proposed objective weights and subjective weights,the fuzzy combination weights theory(FCW)-a new similar day selection theory is presented,which improves the accuracy of the similar day selection,and correspondingly,makes the original data for EMD processing decrease dramatically.BA is introduced to optimize parameters of the SVM model for further improving the forecasting accuracy.Using the decomposed load series via empirical model decomposition(EMD)as inputs to SVM and further correcting the output of SVM via KF,a hybrid FCW-EMD and KF-BA-SVM short-term load forecasting method is established.Numerical case studies on the load forecasting of a transformer substation in south China show that the proposed hybrid forecasting model outperforms other forecasting methods and effectively improves the prediction accuracy.

EMD-Att-LSTM: A Data-driven Strategy Combined with Deep Learning for Short-term Load Forecasting

Electric load forecasting is an efficient tool for system planning, and consequently, building sustainable power systems. However, achieving desirable performance is difficult owing to the irregular, nonstationary, nonlinear, and noisy nature of the observed data. Therefore, a new attention-based encoderdecoder model is proposed, called empirical mode decomposition-attention-long short-term memory(EMD-Att-LSTM).EMD is a data-driven technique used for the decomposition of complex series into subsequent simpler series. It explores the inherent properties of data to obtain the components such as trend and seasonality. Neural network architecture driven by deep learning uses the idea of a fine-grained attention mechanism, that is, considering the hidden state instead of the hidden state vectors, which can help reflect the significance and contributions of each hidden state dimension. In addition, it is useful for locating and concentrating the relevant temporary data,leading to a distinctly interpretable network. To evaluate the proposed model, we use the repository dataset of Australian energy market operator(AEMO). The proposed architecture provides superior empirical results compared with other advanced models. It is explored using the indices of root mean square error(RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE).