Flood risk control of dams and dykes in middle reach of Huaihe River

Three stochastic mathematical models for calculation of the reservoir flood regulation process, river course flood release, and flood risk rate under flood control were established based on the theory of stochastic differential equations and features of flood control systems in the middle reach of the Huaihe River from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate, comprehensively considering uncertain factors of hydrology, hydraulics, and engineering control. They were used to calculate the flood risk rate with flood regulation of five key reservoirs, including the Meishan, Xianghongdian, Nianyushan, Mozitan, and Foziling reservoirs in the middle reach of the Huaihe River under different flood frequencies, the flood risk rate with river course flood release under design and check floods for the trunk of the Huaihe River in conjunction with relevant flood storage areas, and the flood risk rate with operation of the Linhuaigang Project under design and check floods. The calculated results show that （l） the five reservoirs can withstand design floods, but the Xianghongdian and Foziling reservoirs will suffer overtopping accidents under check floods; （2） considering the service of flood storage areas under the design flood conditions of the Huaihe River, the mean flood risk rate with flood regulation of dykes and dams from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate is about 0.2, and the trunk of the Huaihe River can generally withstand design floods; and （3） under a check flood with the flood return period of 1 000 years, the risk rate of overtopping accidents of the Linhuaigang Project is not larger than 0.15, indicating that it has a high flood regulation capacity. Through regulation and application of the flood control system of the Linhuigang Project, the Huaihe River Basin can withstand large floods, and the safety of the protected area can be ensured.

Randomness in the Hybrid Modeling and Simulation of Insulin Secretion Pathways in Pancreatic Islets

Insulin secreted by pancreatic islet ˇ-cells is the principal regulating hormone of glucose metabolism.Disruption of insulin secretion may cause glucose to accumulate in the blood, and result in diabetes mellitus.Although deterministic models of the insulin secretion pathway have been developed, the stochastic aspect of this biological pathway has not been explored. The first step in this direction presented here is a hybrid model of the insulin secretion pathway, in which the delayed rectifying KCchannels are treated as stochastic events. This hybrid model can not only reproduce the oscillation dynamics as the deterministic model does, but can also capture stochastic dynamics that the deterministic model does not. To measure the insulin oscillation system behavior, a probability-based measure is proposed and applied to test the effectiveness of a new remedy.