Dynamic Routing Combined to Forecast the Behavior of Traffic in the City of Sao Paulo Using Neuro Fuzzy Network

The challenge of keeping and getting new customers drives the development of new practices to meet the consumption needs of increasingly tends to micro-segmentation of product and consumer market. The new consumption habits of brazilians brought new prospects for market. The objective of this paper is to develop of a dynamic vehicle routing system supported by the behavior of urban traffic in the city ofSao Paulo using Neuro Fuzzy Network. The methodology of this paper consists in the capture of relevant events that interfere with the flow of traffic of the city of Sao Paulo and implementation of a Fuzzy Neural Network trained with these events in order to foresee the traffic behavior. The system offers three labels of hierarchical routing, thus is possible to consider not only the basic factors of routing, but too external factors that directly influence on the flow of traffic and the disruption which may be avoided in large cities, through alternative routes （dynamic vehicle routing）. Predicting the behavior of traffic represents the strategic level routing, dynamic vehicle routing is the tactical level, and routing algorithms to the operational level. This paper will not be discussed the operational level.

A new cellular automaton for signal controlled traffic flow based on driving behaviors

The complexity of signal controlled traffic largely stems from the various driving behaviors developed in response to the traffic signal. However, the existing models take a few driving behaviors into account and consequently the traffic dynamics has not been completely explored. Therefore, a new cellular automaton model, which incorporates the driving behaviors typically manifesting during the different stages when the vehicles are moving toward a traffic light, is proposed in this paper. Numerical simulations have demonstrated that the proposed model can produce the spontaneous traffic breakdown and the dissolution of the over-saturated traffic phenomena. Furthermore, the simulation results indicate that the slow-to-start behavior and the inch-forward behavior can foster the traffic breakdown. Particularly, it has been discovered that the over-saturated traffic can be revised to be an under-saturated state when the slow-down behavior is activated after the spontaneous breakdown. Finally, the contributions of the driving behaviors on the traffic breakdown have been examined.

Influences of Mixed Traffic Flow and Time Pressure on Mistake-Prone Driving Behaviors among Bus Drivers

Bus safety is a matter of great importance in many developing countries, with driving behaviors among bus drivers identified as a primary factor contributing to accidents. This concern is particularly amplified in mixed traffic flow (MTF) environments with time pressure (TP). However, there is a lack of sufficient research exploring the relationships among these factors. This study consists of two papers that aim to investigate the impact of MTF environments with TP on the driving behaviors of bus drivers. While the first paper focuses on violated driving behaviors, this particular paper delves into mistake-prone driving behaviors (MDB). To collect data on MDB, as well as perceptions of MTF and TP, a questionnaire survey was implemented among bus drivers. Factor analyses were employed to create new measurements for validating MDB in MTF environments. The study utilized partial correlation and linear regression analyses with the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method to explore the relationships between MDB and MTF/TP. The results revealed a modified scale for MDB. Two MTF factors and two TP factors were found to be significantly associated with MDB. A high presence of motorcycles and dangerous interactions among vehicles were not found to be associated with MDB among bus drivers. However, bus drivers who perceived motorcyclists as aggressive, considered road users’ traffic habits as unsafe, and perceived bus routes’ punctuality and organization as very strict were more likely to exhibit MDB. Moreover, the results from the three MDB predictive models demonstrated a positive impact of bus route organization on MDB among bus drivers. The study also examined various relationships between the socio-demographic characteristics of bus drivers and MDB. These findings are of practical significance in developing interventions aimed at reducing MDB among bus drivers operating in MTF environments with TP.

Analysis of Traffic Accidents in Vietnam

Understanding the causes and solutions of road traffic accidents is important for developing road and action plans in a country. In Vietnam, awareness of traffic participants is the main cause of serious traffic accidents. In recent years, the number of road traffic accidents in Tuyen Quang province with deaths has decreased, but the number of accidents has increased significantly. The article uses data on traffic accidents in Tuyen Quang over the (2016-2023) has been analytically reviewed. From there, analyze accident characteristics and causes of traffic accidents in Tuyen Quang province, and propose solutions to improve traffic safety in Tuyen Quang, Vietnam. The findings can be information for managers and researchers interested in studying the province of Tuyen Quang, Vietnam road traffic safety. Additionally, the findings have led the government to achieve national targets in reducing the number of accidents and serious injuries.

Gap acceptance behavior of drivers at uncontrolled T-intersections under mixed traffic conditions

Explicit traffic control measures are absent in uncontrolled intersections which make them susceptible to frequent conflicts and resulting collisions between vehicles. In developing countries like India, drivers at such intersections do not yield to higher priority movements which cause more crashes between vehicles. The objective of this study is to analyze and model the gap acceptance behavior of minor street drivers at uncontrolled T-intersections considering their aggressive nature. Three intersections in the northeast region of India have been selected as the case study area. Preliminary analysis of the data revealed that drivers behave aggressively, not because they have to wait for a long time at the stop line, but because of their lack of respect for traffic rules. Binary logit models are developed for minor road right turning vehicles which show that gap acceptance behavior is influenced by gap duration, clearing time and aggressive nature of drivers. The equations obtained were used to estimate the critical gaps for aggressive and non-aggressive drivers. Critical gaps are also calculated using an existing method called clearing behavior approach. It is also shown that the estimation of critical gap is more realistic if clearing time and aggressive behavior of drivers are considered.

Characteristics and risk of violation behavior of non-motorists at signalized intersections

Aiming at prevalent violations of non-motorists at urban intersections in China, this paper intends to clarify the characteristics and risks of non-motorist violations at signalized intersections through questionnaires and video recordings, which may serve as a basis for non-motorized vehicle management. It can help improve the traffic order and enhance the degree of safety at signalized intersections. To obtain the perception information, a questionaire survey on the Internet was conducted and 972 valid questionnaires were returned. It is found that academic degree contributes little to non-motorist violations, while electrical bicyclists have a relatively higher frequency of violations compared with bicyclists. The video data of 18 228 non-motorist behaviors indicate that the violation rate of all non-motorists is 26.5%; the number of conflicts reaches 1 938, among which violation conflicts account for 66.8%. The study shows that the violation rates and the violation behavior at three types of surveyed intersections are markedly different. It is also concluded that the conflict rates and the violation rates are positively correlated. Furthermore, signal violation, traveling in the wrong direction, and overspeeding to cross the intersection are the most dangerous among traffic violation behaviors.

Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis of MPEG-4 Video Traffic

The main research motive is to analysis and to veiny the inherent nonlinear character of MPEG-4 video. The power spectral density estimation of the video trafiic describes its 1/f^β and periodic characteristics.The priraeipal compohems analysis of the reconstructed space dimension shows only several principal components can be the representation of all dimensions. The correlation dimension analysis proves its fractal characteristic. To accurately compute the largest Lyapunov exponent, the video traffic is divided into many parts.So the largest Lyapunov exponent spectrum is separately calculated using the small data sets method. The largest Lyapunov exponent spectrum shows there exists abundant nonlinear chaos in MPEG-4 video traffic. The conclusion can be made that MPEG-4 video traffic have complex nonlinear be havior and can be characterized by its power spectral density,principal components, correlation dimension and the largest Lyapunov exponent besides its common statistics.

Video-based measurement and data analysis of traffic flow on urban expressways

A new video-based measurement is proposed to collect and investigate traffic flow parameters. The output of the measurement is velocity-headway distance data pairs. Because density can be directly acquired by the reciprocal of headway distance, the data pairs have the advantage of better simultaneity than those from common detectors. By now, over 33 000 pairs of data have been collected from two road sections in the cities of Shanghai and Zhengzhou. Through analyzing the video files recording traffic movements on urban expressways, the following issues are studied：laws of vehicle velocity changing with headway distance, proportions of di0erent driving behaviors in the traffic system, and characteristics of traffic flow in snowy days. The results show that the real road traffic is very complex, and factors such as location and climate need to be taken into consideration in the formation of traffic flow models.

时空行为视角下道路拥堵机制与策略研究——以上海翔殷路隧道为例

城市道路拥堵是时间与空间交织形成的复杂问题。在城市空间格局基本定型的背景下,从往往被忽视的时间维度切入,有望提升城市运行效率并促进可持续发展。以上海翔殷路隧道为例,利用手机信令数据,从时空行为视角深入剖析道路拥堵的形成机制,并提出“因时因地”的缓堵策略。研究发现,人群活动产生的交通流在局部路段存在复杂的时空叠加和时空转换关系。多组不同出发地和目的地的交通流,经过时间和空间等效转换后发生流量叠加,且叠加后的总流量超过道路承载能力,从而形成拥堵高峰。针对这一问题,根据不同人群出行模式的时空特征,提出刚性错峰和弹性引导等差异化策略,通过多情景设定评估不同策略的优化潜力,为缓堵政策制定提供多情景参考。基于时空行为特征的分析方法和策略思路不仅为道路拥堵治理提供借鉴,也可推广应用于理解和解决城市中的其他复杂问题,为城市精细化管理和可持续发展提供新的思路。

不确定环境下收费与信息对路径选择行为影响的实验研究

在不确定环境下考虑信息发布与拥挤收费两种措施,基于交通网络均衡,推导了两路径简单路网的最优收费模型,并推广至一般路网。基于两路径路网设计逐日路径选择行为实验,分析了两种措施对路径选择行为的影响。结果表明:完美信息与收费的实施均能减少流量波动,单独实施收费的效果最佳,但只有两种措施相结合时,路网流量趋于用户均衡的趋势最稳定;完美信息会增加路径切换行为,而收费可有效抑制大幅的路径切换;无收费时路径切换往往会造成出行成本增加,而收费时则相反;收费与信息结合时的出行时间比两种措施单独实施时小。

Characterizing Peak-Time Traffic Jam Incidents in Kampala Using Exploratory Data Analysis

Traffic congestion is associated with increased environmental pollutions, as well as reduced socio-economic productivity due to significant delays in travel times. The consequences are worse in least developed countries where motorized road transport networks are often inefficiently managed in addition to being largely underdeveloped. Recent research on traffic congestion has mostly focused on infrastructural aspects of road networks, with little or no emphasis at all on motorists’ on-the-road behavior (MB). The current study thus aimed to bridge this knowledge gap by characterizing traffic jam incidents (TJI) observed over a period of 80 days in Uganda’s Capital City, Kampala. MB as well as road network infrastructural factors such as road blockage (RB), were captured for each of the observed TJI. A total of 483 peak-time TJI were recorded, and exploratory data analysis (EDA) subsequently performed on the TJI dataset. EDA involved Hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) and K-means clustering of the TJI dataset, as well as a detailed descriptive statistical analysis of both the entire dataset and the emerging TJI clusters. A highlight finding of this study is that 48.2% of the observed TJIs were as a result of on-the-road motorist behavior. Furthermore, the intervention of traffic police officers in a bid to regulate traffic flow was equally responsible for 25.9% of the TJIs observed in this study. Overall, these results indicate that whereas road infrastructural improvement is warranted in order to improve traffic flow, introducing interventions to address inappropriate on-the-road motorists’ behavior could alone improve traffic flow in Kampala, by over 48%. Additionally, in-order to effectively regulate traffic flow in Kampala and other least developed cities with similar traffic congestion management practices, motorists’ on-the-road behavior ought to be factored into any data-driven mechanisms deployed to regulate traffic flow and thus potentially significantly curbing traffic congestion.

基于双流自适应图卷积网络的管制员睡岗行为识别

为识别空中交通管制员的睡岗行为,减少管制差错,保障航空器飞行安全,提出了一种基于双流自适应图卷积网络的管制员睡岗行为识别方法。该方法设计双流网络分别处理管制员骨架的一阶信息和二阶信息,实现对骨架数据的充分提取;通过自适应学习的骨骼拓扑连接矩阵,挖掘管制员不同关节之间的功能连接关系;同时在卷积层引入时空通道注意力机制,增强管制员睡岗行为识别模型在时间、空间、通道3个方向提取重要信息的能力。仿真结果表明,该方法能有效识别管制员3种睡岗行为,相较于传统的时空图卷积网络,识别准确率提高了3.08百分点,达到95.03%,可以提高民航运行安全管理水平。

基于前景理论的疫后旅游景区交通方式选择行为

基于有限理性的前景理论构建了旅客出行方式选择模型,通过对某景区旅游者的个人信息、出行基本情况以及出行意向进行了调查分析,揭示出其出行行为的特点。并且进一步运用前景理论研究旅游者的出行方式选择行为,在完全理性和有限理性的条件下分别计算了各异质类旅客对不同客运方式的模糊选择概率。在此基础上,建立了基于有限理性作用下旅客个体出行决策的模型,得出了各异质类旅客对不同客运方式的出行偏好。通过比较不同类型旅客的出行偏好,可分析出高收入和务工旅客更倾向于驾车出行,而学生游客更倾向于乘坐大巴。相关研究的结论对于旅游景区周边交通设施的规划和建设有一定的指导意义,可更好地服务和满足游客的出行需求。

考虑心理因素的旅游景区停车泊位预约选择行为研究

以自驾前往景区的游客为研究对象,基于计划行为理论,研究心理潜变量对其预约停车位意向的影响机理。在行为模型中引入感知风险变量,构建景区游客停车预约参与意向的结构方程模型,探究态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制及感知风险对游客预约停车行为意向的影响,利用问卷调查数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制和感知风险对游客参与景区停车位预约的意向影响显著,其中态度变量是关键因素且影响最大,感知风险对游客参与景区停车泊位预约的意向有显著负效应。研究结果可为景区停车泊位预约机制的制定及完善提供参考依据。

驾驶行为分类方法及量化评估综述

对驾驶行为分类方法及量化评估进行综述,首先阐述了驾驶行为的涵义及表征方法,然后将驾驶行为分类方法划分为基于统计特性的分类方法、基于机器学习的分类方法、混合式(组合、集成)分类方法三大类,并对不同的驾驶行为分类方法的代表算法、优点及局限性等进行系统归纳和总结,其次,从多个维度对驾驶行为的量化评估研究进行系统介绍,最后介绍了驾驶行为分类及量化评估研究成果在多个领域的应用现状及前景展望。

考虑CAV自主停车行为的混合交通均衡配流模型

为了评估网联自动驾驶汽车(CAV)的自主停车行为对交通系统效率的影响,建立了CAV通勤流、人工驾驶汽车(HDV)通勤流、CAV自主停车流3类交通流混行下的交通均衡配流模型.通过引入CAV停车需求内生变量,考虑CAV对路段通行能力的提升效应,从而定量描述CAV停车需求分布以及3类交通流在路段上混行的拥挤效应.分别采用用户均衡、随机用户均衡原则描述CAV、HDV出行者的路径选择行为,采用Logit离散选择模型描述自主停车CAV的停车场选择行为,由此建立多用户混合交通均衡条件以及等价的变分不等式(VI)模型.由于模型中CAV自主停车需求为未知的内生变量,提出一种改进的相继加权平均法求解该模型.最后,通过算例验证了混合交通均衡配流模型及求解算法的有效性.

数据驱动的新能源公交车能耗预测

鉴于现有电动车能耗预测多基于实验室条件,存在结果过于理想化或预测准确度不足的问题。本文基于北京市51路公交车的实车运行数据,分析能耗影响因素,通过时钟循环编码优化时间信息、使用箱线图设置阈值以构造行驶工况、建立基于熵权法的驾驶行为评价体系对驾驶行为与工况状态进行辅助分析,最后,对聚类后的4类典型工况片段分别建立引入注意力机制的LSTM能耗预测模型,并将其与传统LSTM及LGBM等多种预测模型进行对比分析,验证结果表明引入注意力机制的LSTM预测模型性能显著高于其他模型。

高原环境导致的中青年驾驶行为及驾驶绩效特征

为了量化分析高原环境导致的驾驶行为特征差异,寻找驾驶绩效下降时间窗,运用驾驶模拟器和低氧发生器在平原地区模拟海拔3 900 m高原驾驶环境,开展驾驶模拟试验分别收集驾驶人在平原环境和模拟高原环境的驾驶行为数据和心电图(electrocardiogram,ECG)信号数据。通过对比高原实车试验环境驾驶人的心率指标变化,运用雷达图、数值排序图和单因素方差分析方法对平原、高原环境下的驾驶行为特征进行对比分析,引入Jensen-Shannon散度(JS散度)量化2种环境下横向偏移距离、横向加速度、转向盘旋转率和速度这4个指标的概率密度拟合分布之间的差异,使用差分法确定高原环境下的驾驶绩效下降时间,验证了模拟高海拔环境驾驶模拟试验的有效性研究。结果表明:高原环境下横向偏移距离标准差、横向加速度标准差、转向盘旋转率标准差、速度标准差比平原环境下分别增加了0.094 3 m,0.119 0 m/s^(2),0.000 9°/s,0.651 3 km/h,车辆整体稳定性降低;借助JS散度发现横向偏移距离、横向加速度、转向盘旋转率和速度这4个指标在2种环境下的数值分布存在较大距离,分别为0.23,0.11,0.01,0.02,其中车辆的横向运动受负面影响更大;在进入海拔3 900 m的高原地区时,驾驶绩效约在6 min后显著下降。

船只对南京长江江豚的行为影响分析

长江江豚(Neophocaena asiaeorientalis)仅分布于我国鄱阳湖、洞庭湖、长江中下游及支流中,繁忙的船只不可避免地对长江江豚产生影响。本课题组在2019—2023年对南京长江江豚开展了112d截线抽样船只监测,调查船只对长江江豚行为的影响。结果表明:船只的出现改变了长江江豚的行为类型,觅食行为比例由48%下降到33%,同时旅行行为比例由32%提高至43%;船只距离对长江江豚的反应有显著影响,300 m以上时江豚对船只的中立反应占95%,未发现逃离行为,但是随着距离的减少,逃离行为逐渐增加,在100 m内逃离反应比例接近30%;不同船只类型和集群规模对长江江豚的行为有一定影响,但不显著。综上,船只有无、船只距离对长江江豚的正常活动均有较大的影响,应加强重要栖息地航行船只的管理,限速或禁止靠近岸边行驶,最大限度地保护长江江豚。

高速公路小净距互通立交车辆纵向运行特性

为明确车辆在高速公路小净距互通立交的纵向运行特性,在G50沪渝高速公路重庆段的白杨沟立交和跑马坪立交,开展了38位被试的实车驾驶试验。利用车载仪器采集了自然驾驶状态下的车辆运行速度以及纵向加速度等参数,计算了速度极差、带宽以及聚集系数,分析了驾驶行为的约束性以及速度变化特征。提取了纵向加速度连续变化曲线的峰值,研究了纵向加速度的累积频率、概率分布特性以及特征百分位值。结果表明:在小净距区段,合流区与分流区相互重叠,车辆交织行为增多,车辆间干涉严重,速度极差较大,离散性较高;断面速度总体呈现偏态分布,小净距区段断面速度区间大于其它断面。纵向加速概率分布曲线总体呈现偏态分布,加速度负值分布区间大于正值分布区间;小净距区段交通环境相对更复杂,驾驶人操作更加谨慎,与常规净距立交相比,小净距立交纵向加速度平均值低0.28 m/s^(2)。汇入过程中,驾驶人对加速度的选择存在一定差异,偏向于较大的加速度正值(0.542 m/s^(2))与较低的加速度负值(-0.081 m/s^(2))。然而,驶出过程中,驾驶人对加速度的选择具有一定趋同性,加速度正值(0.300 m/s^(2))与负值(-0.350 m/s^(2))差异性小;男性驾驶人纵向操作频率高于女性,幅度低于女性,不同驾驶风格驾驶人纵向加速度变化趋势具有一定的趋同性。