Vulnerability of Kenya’s Water Towers to Future Climate Change: An Assessment to Inform Decision Making in Watershed Management

Recent trends show that in the coming decades, Kenya’s natural resources will continue to face significant pressure due to both anthropogenic and natural stressors, and this will have greater negative impacts on socio-economic development including food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of these stressors is an important step to developing coping and adaptation strategies at every level. The Water Towers of Kenya play a critical role in supplying ecosystems services such as water supply, timber and non-timber forest products and regulating services such as climate and water quantity and quality. To assess the vulnerability of the Water Towers to climate change, the study adopted the IPCC AR4 framework that defines vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The historical trends in rainfall indicate that the three Water Towers show a declining rainfall trend during the March-April-May (MAM) main rainy season, while the October-November-December (OND) short rainy season shows an increase. The temperature patterns are consistent with the domain having a common rising trend with a rate in the range of 0.3°C to 0.5°C per decade. Projection analysis considered three emissions scenarios: low-emission (mitigation) scenario (RCP2.6), a medium-level emission scenario (RCP4.5), and a high-emission (business as usual) scenario (RCP8.5). The results of the high-emission scenario show that the annual temperature over the Water Towers could rise by 3.0°C to 3.5°C by the 2050s (2036-2065) and 3.6°C to 4.8°C by the 2070s (2055-2085 results not presented), relative to the baseline period 1970-2000. The findings indicate that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity vary in magnitude, as well as spatially across the Water Towers. This is reflected in the spatially variable vulnerability index across the Water Towers. Overall vulnerability will increase in the water towers leading to erosion of the resilience of the exposed ecosystems and the communities that rely on ecosystem services these landscapes provide.

Contribution of the cryosphere to runoff in“Chinese water tower”based on environmental isotopes

Cryospheric meltwater is an important runoff component and it profoundly influences changes in water resources in the Tibetan Plateau.Significant changes in runoff components occur in the three-river headwater region(TRHR),which is an important part of“Chinese Water Tower”due to climate warming.However,these effects remain unclear owing to the sparse and uneven distribution of monitoring sites and limited field investigations.Quantifying the contribution of cryospheric meltwater to outlet runoff is a key scientific question that needs to be addressed.In this study,we analyzed 907 precipitation,river water,ground ice,supra-permafrost water,and glacier snow meltwater samples collected from October 2019 to September 2020 in the TRHR.The following results were obtained:(1)There was significant spatio-temporal variation in stable isotopes in different waters;(2)The seasonal trends of stable isotopes for different waters,the relationship between each water body and the local meteoric water line(LWML)confirmed that river water was mainly recharged by precipitation,supra-permafrost water,and glacier snow meltwater;(3)Precipitation,supra-permafrost water,and glacier snow meltwater accounted for 52%,39%,and 9%of river water,respectively,during the ablation period according to the end-member mixing analysis(EMMA);(4)In terms of future runoff components,there will be many challenges due to increasing precipitation and evaporation,decreasing snow cover,glacier retreat,and permafrost degradation.Therefore,it is crucial to establish the“star-machine-ground”observation networks,forecast extreme precipitation and hydrological events,build the“TRHE on the Cloud”platform,and implement systematic hydraulic engineering projects to support the management and utilization of water resources in the TRHR.The findings of environmental isotope analysis provide insights into water resources as well as scientific basis for rational use of water resources in the TRHR.

Importance and vulnerability of water towers across Northwest China

High mountains(known as water towers)in the arid areas of Northwest China(ARNWC)are major suppliers of water resources for the downstream oasis region,where large populations and economic activities are concentrated.Studies on both water supply and water demand in central Asia including ARNWC have been explored in recent decades,but a precise study on the importance and vulnerability of fine-scale water towers still needs to be conducted,because oases are isolated each other and each oasis has its own specific tower(s).Here we ranked the importance of water tower units(WTUs)using a simplified water tower index(WTI)based on water amount of supply/demand side at a fine river basin scale.Then the vulnerability of these WTUs is assessed with the consideration of future changes in climate,population.GDP,water stress,etc.We con eluded that the WTU of the Mid-branch Rivers of the Junggar Basin is the most important with the highest WTI.while the Yarkant River Basin is the most vulnerable.The WTUs such as the Yarkant,Hotan and Kaxgar of the Tarim River Basin as well as the Hei River of the Hexi Corridor are important at present and vulnerable under a considerable pressure from future climate change scenarios.To respond to these opportunities and risks,it is better to reduce the proportion of the primary industry appropriately,improve the efficiency of water use and strengthen the supervision of water resources utilization,especially in the industrial and urban planning as well as ecological engineering projects.

A New Water Saving Device of Swirling Flow for Cooling Towers

This paper is concerned with water saving for water-loop cooling tower system in power plants. A newly developed water saving device of swirling flow is presented. The key point is that the new water saving device makes the steam swirl up along the device wall rather than engender laminar flow in a corrugated plate. The corrugated plate device can save approximately 10 percent of the total lost water. In contrast to the scale model of corrugated plate water saving device, experimental analyses have demonstrated that the new water saving device of swirling flow is more efficient, with a capacity of saving more than 20 percent of water.

某大科学装置项目工艺冷却水系统设计

介绍了某在建大科学装置项目的工艺冷却水系统设计,包括服务对象、系统形式、系统组成、水温控制策略、流量控制策略等方面的内容。简述了热回收型水源热泵在工艺冷却水系统中的应用方案,并对工艺冷却水系统设计后续可开展的工作和研究提出了3个方向。

箱式双向调压塔在长距离重力流输水管道水锤防护中的新应用

本文提出箱式双向调压塔小塔径多塔代替大塔径单塔的水锤防护新思路,并通过数值模拟和理论计算得出,当1台塔在原位置、另1台塔在其上下游100m范围内时,不会对其水锤防护效果产生影响,管道仍可安全运行。

青藏高原水塔水文功能及其调蓄机制

青藏高原被称为“亚洲水塔”,在水文、气候、生态等方面扮演着重要角色。当前关于水塔水文功能的认识大多停留在对储水功能阶段,对水塔调节功能及其机制的考虑尚显不足。本研究以流域保障和调节作用为视角,总结了青藏高原水塔在储水和调节方面的水文功能,详细梳理了多相态水塔的水文功能及其调蓄机制。青藏高原水塔不仅具有强大的储水功能,还具有对水塔区降水的再分配、对非水塔区径流量和径流年内分配,以及对流域降水、地表水、土壤水、地下水等水资源的调节功能。本研究为青藏高原水塔对上、下游生态水文影响评估提供了理论基础,有利于发挥水塔对流域的保障和调节作用,从而合理规划水利工程,以满足青藏高原及其周边地区的生产、生活和生态需求。

温升背景下“亚洲水塔”流域水资源压力现状及未来预估

“亚洲水塔”流域养育着亚洲十几亿人口,对全球经济发展起着至关重要的作用。在气候变暖背景下,“亚洲水塔”流域的水资源快速变化以及不断增长的人类活动用水需求,使水塔流域水资源压力风险越显突出。为了解“亚洲水塔”流域水资源压力的状况及未来变化,基于部门间影响模式比较计划(ISIMIP)中全球水文模型的径流和用水数据,利用水压力指数方法,系统评估了“亚洲水塔”21个流域的水压力状况和未来的可能变化。结果表明:1971—2010年间,“亚洲水塔”21个流域的水压力总体上呈现升高趋势,多年平均水压力等级达到高或以上的流域为印度河流域、塔里木河流域和黄河流域;针对“亚洲水塔”21个流域未来水压力的变化预估,各流域水压力表现为先增加,之后不同流域表现出持续增加(2个流域)、趋于稳定(5个流域)和下降(14个流域)三种趋势,人类取水活动在未来水压力的变化中起决定性作用。整体上,南亚和东南亚地区水压力将持续增加,例如,布拉马普特拉河流域和湄公河流域,未来水资源短缺和水安全风险很高。

配水方式对冷却塔热力性能的影响研究

为了研究电厂在调峰影响下低负荷运行时合理的配水方式,探寻冷却塔“带水”检修的可能性,采用三维数值模拟方法,计算了某高位收水冷却塔两机六泵全塔配水、一机三泵全塔外围配水和一机三泵半塔配水方式下的塔内外流场特性及热力性能。分析了外围配水和半塔配水可能存在的进塔空气全部从未淋水区域的填料流过而不与淋水填料换热的问题,并统计了配水方式对冷却能力的影响。结果表明,外围配水、半塔配水虽然不存在进塔空气全部从未淋水区域的填料流过的情况,但分区配水热力性能易受到环境风影响,在改善电厂调峰低负荷运行条件下的冷却塔热力性能方面起负面效果。

深圳北坑水库取水塔交通桥地震动力响应规律及抗震安全性研究

取水塔交通桥是水库进水建筑物的组成部分,其抗震性能对保证水库震后安全运行具有重要意义。以深圳北坑水库取水塔交通桥为研究对象,采用有限元动力分析方法开展结构地震响应分析,并对交通桥的抗震安全性进行评价。研究表明:设计地震作用下,交通桥最大横桥向地震动位移3.15 cm,各跨桥板间在地震过程中的最小距离2.97 cm,地震过程中不会发生落梁破坏,也不会发生相邻跨桥面板碰撞现象;交通桥对地震产生明显放大作用,设计地震条件下,桥面板横桥向地震加速度放大倍数最大值4.01,顺桥向加速度放大倍数最大值3.36;设计地震过程中,各桥墩排架墩柱动剪应力水平不高,不会发生墩柱剪断破坏,但桥墩柱底部外侧竖直向动拉应力值较大,桥墩排架下部横梁在顶面和底面都出现较高的动拉应力,需要配置抗震钢筋来保证桥墩排架结构的抗震安全性。

大型冷凝式消雾节水冷却塔性能试验研究

为研究获得菱形模块消雾节水冷却塔的消雾节水和节能特性,对某设计循环水量为5000 m^(3)/h的菱形消雾节水冷却塔的消雾性能、节水性能和节能性能进行了试验研究。建立了冷却塔消雾节水节能性能评价模型,通过现场试验获得冷却塔消雾节水和节能特性参数及其变化规律。结果表明:消雾节水冷却塔设计出塔空气相对湿度为85%,实测出塔相对湿度为82.28%,消雾指数为1.03,符合“零雾型”消雾冷却塔的要求。经菱形消雾冷凝模块换热后的冷凝水量为14.19 m^(3)/h,冷却塔节水率为25.3%,冷凝节水效果好。单塔年总节能收益约40万元,整体年节能收益达240万元,菱形消雾节水冷却塔具有良好的经济效益及环保效益。

JP72举高喷射消防车支腿反力与稳定性分析

举高喷射消防车是重要的消防装备类产品,当其折叠臂完全展开时,等效受力点与回转中心之间的跨距将达到数十米,这将对消防车的稳定性提出更高要求。同时,水炮冲击力及风力等均会对消防车的稳定性产生较大影响,严重时将导致车辆前倾或侧翻。为避免上述危险工况,该文以72 m举高喷射消防车为对象展开稳定性分析,在充分考虑各因素的影响情况下进行C++编程,并依照相关标准计算其等效作用点及作用力,计算出各支腿受力数值,最后依照国家标准以及合力圆分析进行稳定性检验,所研究内容为同类型分析计算工作提供了一定的参考。

循环水温度对CCPP机组真空度影响的探究

CCPP机组真空度降低,对机组运行稳定性和发电效益会产生影响,通过对CCPP机组真空度降低原因的排查,确认循环水温度升高是导致CCPP机组真空度降低的根本原因。而循环水温度升高又与冷却塔的冷却效果有关,分析确认冷却塔填料结垢是造成冷却塔冷却效果差的原因。通过分析结垢物和产生结垢的原因,提出解决填料结垢的处理方案,保证冷却塔的冷却效果。

低温甲醇洗装置系统排水存在的问题及改造措施

介绍了国能榆林化工有限公司低温甲醇洗装置大检修期间排水系统存在的问题,分析了系统固体杂质的来源以及对不同塔器设备的影响。针对废水输送流程复杂,易造成热再生塔和甲醇水分离塔塔盘堵塞,固体杂质再次带入系统等问题,在排放甲醇泵出口阀后至废水外送液位调节阀后配置一条管线,实现了高效安全的排水,避免了废水中的固体杂质再次带入后堵塞系统的风险,同时降低了洗涤水输送电耗。

次氯酸钠清净系统的工艺优化

针对乙炔次氯酸钠清净系统设备及管道易腐蚀、水洗塔和冷却塔结垢严重的问题进行了工艺改造,变更了水环压缩机和乙炔气柜在工艺流程中的位置,改变了水洗塔及冷却塔的工作介质。改造后解决腐蚀和结垢问题。

开式消雾节水技术在工业循环冷却水中的应用

循环冷却水系统节水是工业企业节水、节能的一个重要环节。常规开式循环冷却水塔因塔顶排放口易产生大量白雾,造成水资源的浪费;新型冷凝模块消雾节水冷却塔技术在消除白雾和节水方面成效显著,近年来受到广泛关注。分析了消雾节水冷却塔的消雾节水及工作原理,并与常规开式冷却塔进行了基本参数、运行费用、投资等方面的初步对比。初步估算,消雾节水冷却塔与常规冷却塔相比,蒸发水量和排污量可减少约20%,设备投资增加约80%,但整体运行费用较低,其投资成本在两年左右即可收回,在化工行业具有较好的应用前景。

低温甲醇洗系统甲醇中水含量高的异常现象及应对实践

针对华鹤公司低温甲醇洗系统甲醇中水含量高带来甲醇吸收效率低、系统腐蚀、影响系统负荷等问题进行了原因分析,发现是由甲醇/水分离塔工况不稳定所致。为此,进行了增加原料气分离罐物料过滤器、尾气水洗塔增加自动控制碱液系统、降低甲醇/水分离塔废水排放温度等技术改造,解决了甲醇/水分离塔管道及设备外漏的问题,保证了甲醇/水分离塔的稳定运行。

乙烯装置急冷系统优化节能改造

乙烯装置急冷系统存在热量回收不充分问题,热量通过裂解气由急冷水系统回收,消耗大量循环水,造成能量浪费和能耗费用增大。对于此类低品位热能,传统方法是直接利用,但是存在热能利用率低、费用高的缺点。文中通过强化急冷油系统回收更多的高品位余热,减少低品位余热的产生。具体是引出1股急冷油作为工艺水汽提塔塔底热源,部分或全部替代塔底蒸汽,同时可以减少急冷水系统消耗的循环水。该措施具有节约蒸汽和降低循环水消耗的双重效果,改造工作量小,费用低。

空分设备冷却水系统技术改造总结

夏季高温,针对35 000 m^(3)/h空分设备循环冷却水温度与分子筛吸附器进气温度大于高报警值问题,对空分设备循环冷却水系统增设冷却风机、空气预冷系统增设冷冻机,保障空分设备在夏季高温条件下安全、稳定、经济运行。叙述35 000 m^(3)/h空分设备在夏季高温状态运行时,循环冷却水温度与分子筛吸附器进气温度大于高报警值的原因,介绍35 000 m^(3)/h空分设备增设冷却风机与冷冻机技术改造的具体措施、效果。

乙炔装置生产异常事件分析

介绍了乙炔装置的几起生产异常事件,分析了事故出现的原因,提出了整改方案及预防措施。