Statistical distributions are used to model wind speed,and the twoparameters Weibull distribution has proven its effectiveness at characterizing wind speed.Accurate estimation of Weibull parameters,the scale(c)and sha...Statistical distributions are used to model wind speed,and the twoparameters Weibull distribution has proven its effectiveness at characterizing wind speed.Accurate estimation of Weibull parameters,the scale(c)and shape(k),is crucial in describing the actual wind speed data and evaluating the wind energy potential.Therefore,this study compares the most common conventional numerical(CN)estimation methods and the recent intelligent optimization algorithms(IOA)to show how precise estimation of c and k affects the wind energy resource assessments.In addition,this study conducts technical and economic feasibility studies for five sites in the northern part of Saudi Arabia,namely Aljouf,Rafha,Tabuk,Turaif,and Yanbo.Results exhibit that IOAs have better performance in attaining optimal Weibull parameters and provided an adequate description of the observed wind speed data.Also,with six wind turbine technologies rating between 1 and 3MW,the technical and economic assessment results reveal that the CN methods tend to overestimate the energy output and underestimate the cost of energy($/kWh)compared to the assessments by IOAs.The energy cost analyses show that Turaif is the windiest site,with an electricity cost of$0.016906/kWh.The highest wind energy output is obtained with the wind turbine having a rated power of 2.5 MW at all considered sites with electricity costs not exceeding$0.02739/kWh.Finally,the outcomes of this study exhibit the potential of wind energy in Saudi Arabia,and its environmental goals can be acquired by harvesting wind energy.展开更多
基金The author extends his appreciation to theDeputyship forResearch&Innovation,Ministry of Education,Saudi Arabia for funding this research work through the Project Number(QUIF-4-3-3-33891)。
文摘Statistical distributions are used to model wind speed,and the twoparameters Weibull distribution has proven its effectiveness at characterizing wind speed.Accurate estimation of Weibull parameters,the scale(c)and shape(k),is crucial in describing the actual wind speed data and evaluating the wind energy potential.Therefore,this study compares the most common conventional numerical(CN)estimation methods and the recent intelligent optimization algorithms(IOA)to show how precise estimation of c and k affects the wind energy resource assessments.In addition,this study conducts technical and economic feasibility studies for five sites in the northern part of Saudi Arabia,namely Aljouf,Rafha,Tabuk,Turaif,and Yanbo.Results exhibit that IOAs have better performance in attaining optimal Weibull parameters and provided an adequate description of the observed wind speed data.Also,with six wind turbine technologies rating between 1 and 3MW,the technical and economic assessment results reveal that the CN methods tend to overestimate the energy output and underestimate the cost of energy($/kWh)compared to the assessments by IOAs.The energy cost analyses show that Turaif is the windiest site,with an electricity cost of$0.016906/kWh.The highest wind energy output is obtained with the wind turbine having a rated power of 2.5 MW at all considered sites with electricity costs not exceeding$0.02739/kWh.Finally,the outcomes of this study exhibit the potential of wind energy in Saudi Arabia,and its environmental goals can be acquired by harvesting wind energy.
