The economic operation of integrated energy system(IES)faces new challenges such as multi-timescale characteristics of heterogeneous energy sources,and cooperative operation of hybrid energy storage system(HESS).To th...The economic operation of integrated energy system(IES)faces new challenges such as multi-timescale characteristics of heterogeneous energy sources,and cooperative operation of hybrid energy storage system(HESS).To this end,this paper investigates the multi-timescale rolling opti-mization problem for IES integrated with HESS.Firstly,the architecture of IES with HESS is established,a comparative analysis is conducted to evaluate the advantages of the HESS over a single energy storage system(SESS)in stabilizing power fluctuations.Secondly,the dayahead and real-time scheduling cost functions of IES are established,the day-ahead scheduling mainly depends on operation costs of the components in IES,the real-time optimal scheduling adopts the Lya-punov optimization method to schedule the battery and hydrogen energy storage in each time slot,so as to minimize the real-time average scheduling operation cost,and the problem of day-ahead and real-time scheduling error,which caused by the uncertainty of the energy storage is solved by online optimization.Finally,the proposed model is verified to reduce the scheduling operation cost and the dispatching error by performing an arithmetic example analysis of the IES in Shanghai,which provides a reference for the safe and stable operation of the IES.展开更多
This study sets up two new merit functions,which are minimized for the detection of real eigenvalue and complex eigenvalue to address nonlinear eigenvalue problems.For each eigen-parameter the vector variable is solve...This study sets up two new merit functions,which are minimized for the detection of real eigenvalue and complex eigenvalue to address nonlinear eigenvalue problems.For each eigen-parameter the vector variable is solved from a nonhomogeneous linear system obtained by reducing the number of eigen-equation one less,where one of the nonzero components of the eigenvector is normalized to the unit and moves the column containing that component to the right-hand side as a nonzero input vector.1D and 2D golden section search algorithms are employed to minimize the merit functions to locate real and complex eigenvalues.Simultaneously,the real and complex eigenvectors can be computed very accurately.A simpler approach to the nonlinear eigenvalue problems is proposed,which implements a normalization condition for the uniqueness of the eigenvector into the eigenequation directly.The real eigenvalues can be computed by the fictitious time integration method(FTIM),which saves computational costs compared to the one-dimensional golden section search algorithm(1D GSSA).The simpler method is also combined with the Newton iterationmethod,which is convergent very fast.All the proposed methods are easily programmed to compute the eigenvalue and eigenvector with high accuracy and efficiency.展开更多
Astrocytes read and react to synaptic transmission through tripartite synapses,where the binding of neurotransmitters onto astrocytic receptors triggers an increase in intracellular calcium.Recent investigations have ...Astrocytes read and react to synaptic transmission through tripartite synapses,where the binding of neurotransmitters onto astrocytic receptors triggers an increase in intracellular calcium.Recent investigations have revealed that astrocytes exhibit two distinct states of intracellular calcium activity:(1)graded subcellular localized clusters with independently active microdomains,likely influenced by nearby synaptic events,and(2)whole-cell astrocyte calcium surges,believed to result from the coordinated activation of multiple synapses.Notably,astrocyte calcium responses are not solely graded;instead,a spatial threshold of intracellular calcium activity can be overcome to elicit an astrocyte calcium surge.Together these calcium responses,in turn,initiate downstream signaling pathways capable of modifying synaptic communication and overall network activity.In summary,astrocytes can function as integrators of local synaptic events,actively contributing to information processing within the brain.展开更多
The approach of Li and Zhou(2014)is adopted to find the Laplace transform of occupation time over interval(0,a)and joint occupation times over semi-infinite intervals(-∞,a)and(b,∞)for a time-homogeneous diffusion pr...The approach of Li and Zhou(2014)is adopted to find the Laplace transform of occupation time over interval(0,a)and joint occupation times over semi-infinite intervals(-∞,a)and(b,∞)for a time-homogeneous diffusion process up to an independent exponential time e_(q)for 0<a<b.The results are expressed in terms of solutions to the differential equations associated with the diffusion generator.Applying these results,we obtain explicit expressions on the Laplace transform of occupation time and joint occupation time for Brownian motion with drift.展开更多
In the present paper,we mostly focus on P_(p)^(2)-statistical convergence.We will look into the uniform integrability via the power series method and its characterizations for double sequences.Also,the notions of P_(p...In the present paper,we mostly focus on P_(p)^(2)-statistical convergence.We will look into the uniform integrability via the power series method and its characterizations for double sequences.Also,the notions of P_(p)^(2)-statistically Cauchy sequence,P_(p)^(2)-statistical boundedness and core for double sequences will be described in addition to these findings.展开更多
Background: Prenatal exposure to illicit substances is responsible for several long-term negative health consequences. It is critical for healthcare professionals to know the extent and scope of prenatal substance exp...Background: Prenatal exposure to illicit substances is responsible for several long-term negative health consequences. It is critical for healthcare professionals to know the extent and scope of prenatal substance exposure in their cases. Several studies exist with mixed results comparing the effectiveness of umbilical cord tissue (UCT) and meconium (MEC) as toxicology specimen types. The specific aim of this study is to compare the use of UCT and MEC regarding the time interval between the birth of the neonate, receipt of the specimen at the laboratory, and the hospital’s receipt of the final toxicology report. Method: The study queried de-identified results of 5358 consecutive UCT and 706 MEC from our laboratory. Results: The mean time from birth to receipt of the specimen at the laboratory for MEC and UCT was 4.5 days ± 2.9 days and 2.8 days ± 1.9 days, respectively. The mean time from birth to final report for MEC was 6.9 days ± 3.8 days, 5.7 days ± 3.3 days, and 8.4 days ± 3.8 days for all MEC specimens, negative MEC, and positive MEC, respectively. The mean time from birth to final report for UCT was 4.3 days ± 2.4 days, 3.5 days ± 2.2 days, and 5.4 days ± 2.2 days for all UCT, negative UCT and positive UCT, respectively. Discussion/Conclusion: Receipt of drug test results of the neonate prior to release from the hospital is critical. This study shows that UCT offers an advantage when results are needed quickly to make informed decisions about the health and well-being of newborns.展开更多
Hydroxyapatite(HA)is a bio ceramic commonly utilized in bone tissue engineering due to its bioactive and osteoconductive properties.Crab shells are usually disregarded as waste material despite their significant CaCO_...Hydroxyapatite(HA)is a bio ceramic commonly utilized in bone tissue engineering due to its bioactive and osteoconductive properties.Crab shells are usually disregarded as waste material despite their significant CaCO_(3) content,and have not been widely utilized in the synthesis of HA.This study aims to synthesize and analyze HA derived from crab shells using the hydrothermal method with different durations of holding time.This study utilized precipitated calcium carbonate(PCC)derived from crab shells.With a hydrothermal reactor set at 160℃ and varying holding times of 14(HA_14),16(HA_16),and 18(HA_18)h,a PCC and(NH4)2HPO4 mixture was used to synthesize HA.The synthesis results were analyzed using scanning electron microscopy(SEM),fourier transform infrared spectroscopy(FTIR),and X-ray diffraction(XRD)tests.This study has accomplished the synthesis of HA from crab shells.Nonetheless,the final product of synthesis still contained CaCO_(3) as an impurity.The prolonged hydrothermal holding time of 14 to 18 h resulted in a reduction of impurities while increasing the percentage of crystal weight and crystallite size of HA.Specimen CH_18 is the best-quality product generated in this study.This specimen produced HA with the highest percentage of crystal weight and crystallite size compared to the other specimens.Furthermore,specimen CH_18 exhibited the lowest concentration of impurities.The Ca/P ratio in this specimen was also the closest to 1.67.The Ca/P ratio,crystallite size,and crystal weight percentage of this specimen are 1.54,19.06 nm,and 99.1%,respectively.展开更多
A man with his face painted to appear like a spirit,participates in the He Neak Ta ritual in Phum Boeung village,northwest of Phnom Penh,Cambodia,on June 11.Cambodian villagers took part in a rare traditional guardian...A man with his face painted to appear like a spirit,participates in the He Neak Ta ritual in Phum Boeung village,northwest of Phnom Penh,Cambodia,on June 11.Cambodian villagers took part in a rare traditional guardian spirit ceremony praying for good fortune,rain,and prosperity as part of efforts to preserve this ancient tradition.展开更多
BUILDING a resilient workforce of the future means understanding your workers.Over the past five years,the Adecco Group has interviewed over 82,000 employees across 25 countries-including China-to capture global work...BUILDING a resilient workforce of the future means understanding your workers.Over the past five years,the Adecco Group has interviewed over 82,000 employees across 25 countries-including China-to capture global workers’perspectives and equip employers with the tools to future-proof their workforce.These are some of the findings about the labor market trends that have transformed the world of work since 2020。展开更多
As long as China and the EU adhere to strategic consensuses,keep in step with the times,and maintain mutual trust,they will be able to ensure the prosperity and stability of both sides.
Girls with flowers on their heads at a celebration for the traditional Ngarot festival in West Java,Indonesia,on December 13,2023.The festival is a traditional ceremony to welcome the rice planting season.
On September 25,locals and tourists pose for photos with a giant decorative flower basket on Tiananmen Square in Beijing to celebrate the forthcoming National Day.The four Chinese characters adorning the basket mean&q...On September 25,locals and tourists pose for photos with a giant decorative flower basket on Tiananmen Square in Beijing to celebrate the forthcoming National Day.The four Chinese characters adorning the basket mean"blessing the motherland."(IC PHOTO)展开更多
Cherry blossoms at Qingchuan Pavilion in Wuhan,capital of central China’s Hubei Province,attract throngs of visitors on March 23.Illuminated by night lights,the cherry blossoms shone brightly,creating fantastic scene...Cherry blossoms at Qingchuan Pavilion in Wuhan,capital of central China’s Hubei Province,attract throngs of visitors on March 23.Illuminated by night lights,the cherry blossoms shone brightly,creating fantastic scenes of light and shadow with neon-clad bridges and landmark buildings along the Yangtze River.展开更多
Tourists sightsee on a boat in a massive lotus pond scenic area in Xinghua,Taizhou,east China’s Jiangsu Province,on August 5.When summer peaks,lotus flowers enter their blooming season,attracting throngs of tourists ...Tourists sightsee on a boat in a massive lotus pond scenic area in Xinghua,Taizhou,east China’s Jiangsu Province,on August 5.When summer peaks,lotus flowers enter their blooming season,attracting throngs of tourists to admire their beauty.展开更多
Time synchronization(TS)is crucial for ensuring the secure and reliable functioning of the distribution power Internet of Things(IoT).Multi-clock source time synchronization(MTS)has significant advantages of high reli...Time synchronization(TS)is crucial for ensuring the secure and reliable functioning of the distribution power Internet of Things(IoT).Multi-clock source time synchronization(MTS)has significant advantages of high reliability and accuracy but still faces challenges such as optimization of the multi-clock source selection and the clock source weight calculation at different timescales,and the coupling of synchronization latency jitter and pulse phase difference.In this paper,the multi-timescale MTS model is conducted,and the reinforcement learning(RL)and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)-based multi-timescale MTS algorithm is designed to improve the weighted summation of synchronization latency jitter standard deviation and average pulse phase difference.Specifically,the multi-clock source selection is optimized based on Softmax in the large timescale,and the clock source weight calculation is optimized based on lower confidence bound-assisted AHP in the small timescale.Simulation shows that the proposed algorithm can effectively reduce time synchronization delay standard deviation and average pulse phase difference.展开更多
The new independent solutions of the nonlinear differential equation with time-dependent coefficients (NDE-TC) are discussed, for the first time, by employing experimental device called a drinking bird whose simple ba...The new independent solutions of the nonlinear differential equation with time-dependent coefficients (NDE-TC) are discussed, for the first time, by employing experimental device called a drinking bird whose simple back-and-forth motion develops into water drinking motion. The solution to a drinking bird equation of motion manifests itself the transition from thermodynamic equilibrium to nonequilibrium irreversible states. The independent solution signifying a nonequilibrium thermal state seems to be constructed as if two independent bifurcation solutions are synthesized, and so, the solution is tentatively termed as the bifurcation-integration solution. The bifurcation-integration solution expresses the transition from mechanical and thermodynamic equilibrium to a nonequilibrium irreversible state, which is explicitly shown by the nonlinear differential equation with time-dependent coefficients (NDE-TC). The analysis established a new theoretical approach to nonequilibrium irreversible states, thermomechanical dynamics (TMD). The TMD method enables one to obtain thermodynamically consistent and time-dependent progresses of thermodynamic quantities, by employing the bifurcation-integration solutions of NDE-TC. We hope that the basic properties of bifurcation-integration solutions will be studied and investigated further in mathematics, physics, chemistry and nonlinear sciences in general.展开更多
BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their s...BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12171145)。
文摘The economic operation of integrated energy system(IES)faces new challenges such as multi-timescale characteristics of heterogeneous energy sources,and cooperative operation of hybrid energy storage system(HESS).To this end,this paper investigates the multi-timescale rolling opti-mization problem for IES integrated with HESS.Firstly,the architecture of IES with HESS is established,a comparative analysis is conducted to evaluate the advantages of the HESS over a single energy storage system(SESS)in stabilizing power fluctuations.Secondly,the dayahead and real-time scheduling cost functions of IES are established,the day-ahead scheduling mainly depends on operation costs of the components in IES,the real-time optimal scheduling adopts the Lya-punov optimization method to schedule the battery and hydrogen energy storage in each time slot,so as to minimize the real-time average scheduling operation cost,and the problem of day-ahead and real-time scheduling error,which caused by the uncertainty of the energy storage is solved by online optimization.Finally,the proposed model is verified to reduce the scheduling operation cost and the dispatching error by performing an arithmetic example analysis of the IES in Shanghai,which provides a reference for the safe and stable operation of the IES.
基金the National Science and Tech-nology Council,Taiwan for their financial support(Grant Number NSTC 111-2221-E-019-048).
文摘This study sets up two new merit functions,which are minimized for the detection of real eigenvalue and complex eigenvalue to address nonlinear eigenvalue problems.For each eigen-parameter the vector variable is solved from a nonhomogeneous linear system obtained by reducing the number of eigen-equation one less,where one of the nonzero components of the eigenvector is normalized to the unit and moves the column containing that component to the right-hand side as a nonzero input vector.1D and 2D golden section search algorithms are employed to minimize the merit functions to locate real and complex eigenvalues.Simultaneously,the real and complex eigenvectors can be computed very accurately.A simpler approach to the nonlinear eigenvalue problems is proposed,which implements a normalization condition for the uniqueness of the eigenvector into the eigenequation directly.The real eigenvalues can be computed by the fictitious time integration method(FTIM),which saves computational costs compared to the one-dimensional golden section search algorithm(1D GSSA).The simpler method is also combined with the Newton iterationmethod,which is convergent very fast.All the proposed methods are easily programmed to compute the eigenvalue and eigenvector with high accuracy and efficiency.
基金supported by NIH-NIA (1F31AG057155-01A1)University of Minnesota Doctoral Dissertation Fellowship (to JL)
文摘Astrocytes read and react to synaptic transmission through tripartite synapses,where the binding of neurotransmitters onto astrocytic receptors triggers an increase in intracellular calcium.Recent investigations have revealed that astrocytes exhibit two distinct states of intracellular calcium activity:(1)graded subcellular localized clusters with independently active microdomains,likely influenced by nearby synaptic events,and(2)whole-cell astrocyte calcium surges,believed to result from the coordinated activation of multiple synapses.Notably,astrocyte calcium responses are not solely graded;instead,a spatial threshold of intracellular calcium activity can be overcome to elicit an astrocyte calcium surge.Together these calcium responses,in turn,initiate downstream signaling pathways capable of modifying synaptic communication and overall network activity.In summary,astrocytes can function as integrators of local synaptic events,actively contributing to information processing within the brain.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12271062,11731012)by the Hunan Provincial National Natural Science Foundation of China(2019JJ50405)。
文摘The approach of Li and Zhou(2014)is adopted to find the Laplace transform of occupation time over interval(0,a)and joint occupation times over semi-infinite intervals(-∞,a)and(b,∞)for a time-homogeneous diffusion process up to an independent exponential time e_(q)for 0<a<b.The results are expressed in terms of solutions to the differential equations associated with the diffusion generator.Applying these results,we obtain explicit expressions on the Laplace transform of occupation time and joint occupation time for Brownian motion with drift.
文摘In the present paper,we mostly focus on P_(p)^(2)-statistical convergence.We will look into the uniform integrability via the power series method and its characterizations for double sequences.Also,the notions of P_(p)^(2)-statistically Cauchy sequence,P_(p)^(2)-statistical boundedness and core for double sequences will be described in addition to these findings.
文摘Background: Prenatal exposure to illicit substances is responsible for several long-term negative health consequences. It is critical for healthcare professionals to know the extent and scope of prenatal substance exposure in their cases. Several studies exist with mixed results comparing the effectiveness of umbilical cord tissue (UCT) and meconium (MEC) as toxicology specimen types. The specific aim of this study is to compare the use of UCT and MEC regarding the time interval between the birth of the neonate, receipt of the specimen at the laboratory, and the hospital’s receipt of the final toxicology report. Method: The study queried de-identified results of 5358 consecutive UCT and 706 MEC from our laboratory. Results: The mean time from birth to receipt of the specimen at the laboratory for MEC and UCT was 4.5 days ± 2.9 days and 2.8 days ± 1.9 days, respectively. The mean time from birth to final report for MEC was 6.9 days ± 3.8 days, 5.7 days ± 3.3 days, and 8.4 days ± 3.8 days for all MEC specimens, negative MEC, and positive MEC, respectively. The mean time from birth to final report for UCT was 4.3 days ± 2.4 days, 3.5 days ± 2.2 days, and 5.4 days ± 2.2 days for all UCT, negative UCT and positive UCT, respectively. Discussion/Conclusion: Receipt of drug test results of the neonate prior to release from the hospital is critical. This study shows that UCT offers an advantage when results are needed quickly to make informed decisions about the health and well-being of newborns.
基金funded the World Class Research(WCR)Grant of Universitas Diponegoro with Contract Number 357-36/UN7.D2/PP/IV/2024.
文摘Hydroxyapatite(HA)is a bio ceramic commonly utilized in bone tissue engineering due to its bioactive and osteoconductive properties.Crab shells are usually disregarded as waste material despite their significant CaCO_(3) content,and have not been widely utilized in the synthesis of HA.This study aims to synthesize and analyze HA derived from crab shells using the hydrothermal method with different durations of holding time.This study utilized precipitated calcium carbonate(PCC)derived from crab shells.With a hydrothermal reactor set at 160℃ and varying holding times of 14(HA_14),16(HA_16),and 18(HA_18)h,a PCC and(NH4)2HPO4 mixture was used to synthesize HA.The synthesis results were analyzed using scanning electron microscopy(SEM),fourier transform infrared spectroscopy(FTIR),and X-ray diffraction(XRD)tests.This study has accomplished the synthesis of HA from crab shells.Nonetheless,the final product of synthesis still contained CaCO_(3) as an impurity.The prolonged hydrothermal holding time of 14 to 18 h resulted in a reduction of impurities while increasing the percentage of crystal weight and crystallite size of HA.Specimen CH_18 is the best-quality product generated in this study.This specimen produced HA with the highest percentage of crystal weight and crystallite size compared to the other specimens.Furthermore,specimen CH_18 exhibited the lowest concentration of impurities.The Ca/P ratio in this specimen was also the closest to 1.67.The Ca/P ratio,crystallite size,and crystal weight percentage of this specimen are 1.54,19.06 nm,and 99.1%,respectively.
文摘A man with his face painted to appear like a spirit,participates in the He Neak Ta ritual in Phum Boeung village,northwest of Phnom Penh,Cambodia,on June 11.Cambodian villagers took part in a rare traditional guardian spirit ceremony praying for good fortune,rain,and prosperity as part of efforts to preserve this ancient tradition.
文摘BUILDING a resilient workforce of the future means understanding your workers.Over the past five years,the Adecco Group has interviewed over 82,000 employees across 25 countries-including China-to capture global workers’perspectives and equip employers with the tools to future-proof their workforce.These are some of the findings about the labor market trends that have transformed the world of work since 2020。
文摘As long as China and the EU adhere to strategic consensuses,keep in step with the times,and maintain mutual trust,they will be able to ensure the prosperity and stability of both sides.
文摘Girls with flowers on their heads at a celebration for the traditional Ngarot festival in West Java,Indonesia,on December 13,2023.The festival is a traditional ceremony to welcome the rice planting season.
文摘On September 25,locals and tourists pose for photos with a giant decorative flower basket on Tiananmen Square in Beijing to celebrate the forthcoming National Day.The four Chinese characters adorning the basket mean"blessing the motherland."(IC PHOTO)
文摘Cherry blossoms at Qingchuan Pavilion in Wuhan,capital of central China’s Hubei Province,attract throngs of visitors on March 23.Illuminated by night lights,the cherry blossoms shone brightly,creating fantastic scenes of light and shadow with neon-clad bridges and landmark buildings along the Yangtze River.
文摘Tourists sightsee on a boat in a massive lotus pond scenic area in Xinghua,Taizhou,east China’s Jiangsu Province,on August 5.When summer peaks,lotus flowers enter their blooming season,attracting throngs of tourists to admire their beauty.
基金supported by Science and Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid Company Limited under Grant Number 036000KK52200058(GDKJXM20202001).
文摘Time synchronization(TS)is crucial for ensuring the secure and reliable functioning of the distribution power Internet of Things(IoT).Multi-clock source time synchronization(MTS)has significant advantages of high reliability and accuracy but still faces challenges such as optimization of the multi-clock source selection and the clock source weight calculation at different timescales,and the coupling of synchronization latency jitter and pulse phase difference.In this paper,the multi-timescale MTS model is conducted,and the reinforcement learning(RL)and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)-based multi-timescale MTS algorithm is designed to improve the weighted summation of synchronization latency jitter standard deviation and average pulse phase difference.Specifically,the multi-clock source selection is optimized based on Softmax in the large timescale,and the clock source weight calculation is optimized based on lower confidence bound-assisted AHP in the small timescale.Simulation shows that the proposed algorithm can effectively reduce time synchronization delay standard deviation and average pulse phase difference.
文摘The new independent solutions of the nonlinear differential equation with time-dependent coefficients (NDE-TC) are discussed, for the first time, by employing experimental device called a drinking bird whose simple back-and-forth motion develops into water drinking motion. The solution to a drinking bird equation of motion manifests itself the transition from thermodynamic equilibrium to nonequilibrium irreversible states. The independent solution signifying a nonequilibrium thermal state seems to be constructed as if two independent bifurcation solutions are synthesized, and so, the solution is tentatively termed as the bifurcation-integration solution. The bifurcation-integration solution expresses the transition from mechanical and thermodynamic equilibrium to a nonequilibrium irreversible state, which is explicitly shown by the nonlinear differential equation with time-dependent coefficients (NDE-TC). The analysis established a new theoretical approach to nonequilibrium irreversible states, thermomechanical dynamics (TMD). The TMD method enables one to obtain thermodynamically consistent and time-dependent progresses of thermodynamic quantities, by employing the bifurcation-integration solutions of NDE-TC. We hope that the basic properties of bifurcation-integration solutions will be studied and investigated further in mathematics, physics, chemistry and nonlinear sciences in general.
基金Supported by the Key Scientific Research Project of Universities in Henan Province,No.21A330004Natural Science Foundation in Henan Province,No.222300420265.
文摘BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.
