Analysis and prediction of glacier evolution trend(2020-2100)in Northern Xinjiang

Glaciers,as“solid reservoirs”,are precious resources in arid areas.The study of glaciers is of great significance to the sustainable development and management of agriculture and the economy in northern Xinjiang.The area of glacier distribution on the 1963 topographic map data,1975 MSS data,2000 ETM data,2008 CBERS-2 data,2014 and 2018 ETM+were collected as secondary data.According to the remote sensing survey,the glacier areas in Northern Xinjiang are identified during 1963-2018.Based on the evolution of glacier area in the past 55 years,and using two scenarios,the average annual decrease area of a region during the whole 1963-2018 and the period with the minimum reduction area,the glacier areas of Southern Tianshan Mountains,Western Tianshan Mountains,Eastern Tianshan Mountains,the Sawuer Mountains and Altai Mountains in Northern Xinjiang,and the whole northern Xinjiang in 2030,2040,2050,and 2100 are examined and predicted.In 2100,the glacier area in Northern Xinjiang may decrease by 43%-59%.

Analysis of System Value Evolution Trends of Energy Storage in Decarbonization Process

With the continuous expansion of the scale of renewable energy installation,the demand for energy storage has increased significantly.However,there are significant differences in the value of energy storage in different scenarios,and the phenomenon of diminishing marginal benefits of energy storage is becoming more apparent.Therefore,themulti-dimensional value evolution trend of energy storage has become a key issue.This study selects indicators from three dimensions of energy storage:low-carbon emission reduction,smoothing wind and solar power fluctuations,and saving generation costs,quantifying the economic,environmental,and technical values of energy storage.This forms a quantitative evaluation system for energy storage value.By comparing the calculated system values under different energy storage capacities,the marginal value evolution trend of energy storage is obtained.Meanwhile,considering factors such as the utilization rate of renewable energy,the change in energy storage value under different scenarios is analyzed.The results show that the value of long-duration energy storage is significantly affected by the energy storage capacity.Specifically,when the charge-discharge efficiency of longduration energy storage reaches 0.6 or above,the system value increases significantly.Additionally,appropriately reducing the cost of energy storage capacity also helps to improve its system value.

Distributional dynamic and trend evolution of China's agricultural carbon emissions-an analysis on panel data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2011

Researching the dynamic distribution characteristics and trend evolution of agricultural carbon emissions is of considerable significance in formulating an effective agricultural carbon reduction policy.Based on measurement of agricultural carbon emissions of 31 provinces over the period 2002-2011,the study observed regional differences and the dynamic evolution of distribution of agricultural carbon emissions using agricultural carbon intensity as the indicator,accompanied by Gini coefficients and the kernel density estimation method.The results demonstrate first that agricultural carbon emissions for China show an obvious nonequilibrium nature in regard to spatial distribution.According to the differences in agricultural carbon emissions dynamic trends,we divided the 31 regions into four types- continuous decline,fluctuating decline,continuous increase,and fluctuating increase.Further,agricultural carbon emissions intensity showed a downward trend with significant differences in the research areas.Second,the gap in spatial distribution of national agricultural carbon emissions is gradually expanding based on the results calculated by Gini coefficient.From the perception of regional differences in agricultural carbon emissions,the eastern region showed an average level,the gap was more obvious in the central region,while western region showed a trend of fluctuating downward.Third,according to estimation by kernel density,the regional disparity in agricultural carbon emissions had a downward,but limited,trend.In regard to agricultural carbon emissions over the three areas,the regional gap not only tended to decrease but also showed a "four way" differentiation phenomenon in the eastern region.The difference in the central region difference was narrower.On the whole,the gap for the western region reduced steadily over a small range.

Evolution trend analysis of urban residents’ low-carbon travel development based on multidimensional game theory

In the travel process of urban residents,travelers will take a series of activities such as imitation and exclusion by observing other people’s travel modes,which affects their following trips.This process can be seen as a repeated game between members of the travelers.Based on the analysis of this game and its evolution trend,a multi-dimensional game model of low-carbon travel for residents is established.The two dimensional game strategies include whether to accept the low-carbon concept and whether to choose low-carbon travel.Combined with evolutionary game theory,the low-carbon travel choices of residents in different cities are simulated,and the evolutionary stability strategies are obtained.Finally,the influences of the main parameters of the model on the evolution process and stability strategies are discussed.The results show that travelers would develop towards two trends.Cities with more developed public traffic system have a higher proportion of receiving low-carbon concept and choosing low-carbon travel.Cities with underdeveloped public transport system could increase this proportion by some measures such as encouraging residents to choose slow transport and increasing the propaganda of low-carbon travel,but the positive effects of the measures like propaganda have a limited impact on the proportion.

Evolution History and Development Trend of Industrialized Live Pig Breeding Model in China

Tremendous achievements of live pig industry in China are closely related to the industrialization of the industry,and development trend of the latter is essential for maintaining sustained and stable development of animal husbandry.The paper,on the basis of defining the evolution of industrialized live pig breeding model,elaborated the industrialized operation models of live pig industry in China since 1978,i.e.household operation,large-scale operation,and industrialized operation.The external environment for the development of live pig industry was analyzed,such as global economic competition,development of experience economy,and stronger green consciousness of consumers.Then development trend of industrialized live pig breeding was analyzed as"expanding international market,consolidating domestic market,integrating resources of live pig industry for the integrated operation,promoting the industrialization model and breeding technology driven by live pig processing,applying animal welfare and the internet of things in live pig breeding industry".

EVOLUTION TRENDS AND COUNTERMEASURES FOR ECOLOGIC ENVIRONMENT IN XINJIANG

1. Features of the ecologic environment1.1 Closeness and aridity of the interier continent Xinjing is located in the hinterland of Eurasia where ocean humid air current is diffi-cult to reach. As a result, the climate is very arid with 150mm of mean annual precipitation.

Agro-ecosystem Emergy Evolution and Trend in Hunan Province

Using the emergy analysis method,we conduct trend analysis of changes in the total emergy,input and output structure,various emergy indicators of agro-ecosystem in Hunan Province during the period 1999-2008.The results show that during the study period,total emergy input basically remained stable,but the emergy input structure was constantly optimized,of which the input of non-renewable industrial assistant emergy increased by 38.4%,from 4.00E +22 sej to 5.53E +22 sej,and the input of renewable organic emergy declined from 1.32E +23 sej to 1.20E + 23 sej;total emergy yield and yield efficiency of this system were promoted dramatically,and in 2008,the total emergy yield reached 1.69E +23 sej,increasing by 23.8% as against that in 1999,the net emergy yield ratio rose from 0.79 to 0.96;since the environmental loading ratio also tended to rise constantly,from 1.12 to 1.79,the sustainability index of this system also experienced the slow downward trend,from 0.71 to 0.54,always less than 1,indicating that the agriculture in Hunan Province is the high consumption-driven ecosystem in general,with obvious features of extensive development.

Evolution and Development Trend Prospect of Metal Milling Equipment

The world is currently undergoing profound changes which have never happened within the past century.Global competition in the technology and industry fields is becoming increasingly fierce.The strategic competition of the major powers further focuses on the manufacturing industry.Developed countries such as the United States,Germany,and Japan have successively put forward strategic plans such as“re-industrialization”and“return of manufacturing industry”,aiming to seize the commanding heights of a new round of global high-end technology competition and expand international market share.Standing at the historic intersection of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and China's accelerated high-quality development,the“14th Five-Year Plan”clearly pointed out that intelligent manufacturing is the main development trend to promote China's manufacturing to the medium-high end of the global value chain.This reflects the importance of advanced manufacturing for national strategic layout.To better grasp the development direction of advanced manufacturing equipment,the development process and current application status of manufacturing equipment are summarized,and thereafter the characteristics of manufacturing equipment in different development stages of the manufacturing industry are analyzed.Finally,the development trend of advanced milling equipment is prospected.

Late Cenozoic Sedimentary Evolution of Pagri-Duoqing Co graben, Southern End of Yadong-Gulu Rift, Southern Tibet

The north trending rifts in southern Tibet represent the E-W extension of the plateau and confirming the initial rifting age is key to the study of mechanics of these rifts. Pagri-Duoqing Co graben is located at southern end of Yadong-Gulu rift, where the late Cenozoic sediments is predominately composed of fluvio-lacustrine and moraine. Based on the sedimentary composition and structures, the fluviolacustrine could be divided into three facies, namely, lacustrine, lacustrine fan delta and alluvial fan. The presence of paleo-currents and conglomerate components and the provenance of the strata around the graben indicate that it was Tethys Himalaya and High Himalaya. Electron spin resonance(ESR) dating and paleo-magnetic dating suggest that the age of the strata ranges from ca. 1.2 Ma to ca. 8 Ma. Optically stimulated luminescence(OSL) dating showed that moraine in the graben mainly developed from around181-109 ka(late Middle Pleistocene). Combining previous data about the Late Cenozoic strata in other basins, it is suggested that 8-15 Ma may be the initial rifting time. Together with sediment distribution and drainage system, the sedimentary evolution of Pagri could be divided into four stages. The graben rifted at around 15-8 Ma due to the eastern graben-boundary fault resulting in the appearance of a paleolake.Following by a geologically quiet period about 8-2.5 Ma, the paleolake expanded from east to west at around 8-6 Ma reaching its maximum at ca. 6 Ma. Then, the graben was broken at about 2.5 Ma. At last,the development of the glacier separated the graben into two parts that were Pagri and Duoqing Co since the later stages of the Middle Pleistocene. The evolution process suggested that the former three stages were related to the tectonic movement, which determined the basement of the graben, while the last stage may have been influenced by glacial activity caused by climate change.

Dynamic Spatial Evolution of Market-oriented Supply Level of State-owned Land

The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of the spatial distribution and change trend of the marketing level of stateowned land supply so as to provide policy recommendations. Method of spatial autocorrelation analysis is employed. The results indicate that the spatial layout of the land supply marketing level is generally dispersed,but it does assemble in some specific area. The correlation between the marketing level of state-owned land supply and the economic development is not statistically significant. But their relations fluctuate obviously. The overall marketing level of state-owned land supply is increasing and spatially concentrated. The expansion rate of marketing has decreased first and then increased and stabilized now. The high-value cluster center of marketing level of state-owned land supply exists all over the country; however the existence probability of the cluster is bigger in undeveloped areas. It is concluded that spatial autocorrelation analysis is a good method to quantitatively analyze the spatial variation of marketing level of state-owned land supply in China. To grasp the spatial and temporal variations of the marketing level of state-owned land supply is also good to enhance running of the state-owned land market.

耦合“现状—趋势”的城市地表热环境评估

针对城市地表热环境评估较少考虑动态变化趋势的问题,该文提出了一种新的耦合“现状—趋势”的城市地表热环境评估方法。采用非参数趋势检验法分析多年地表温度的演变趋势,有效识别地表温度的升高、未变化和降低趋势,并通过与现状地表温度的耦合叠加,深入挖掘现状地表温度高且呈升高趋势等热环境问题严重且紧迫的关键区域,从而实现对城市热环境状况的全面评估。以天津市中心城区为例的实证研究结果表明,该文所提出的评估方法能够有效地识别具有热环境持续恶化潜能的区域,同时也能揭示长期存在高温状况的重点区域。研究结果为城市规划与热环境精准管理提供科学评估工具,助力制定改善策略,提升热环境质量。

浙江省共同富裕发展水平测度及演变趋势研究

共同富裕是社会主义最大的优越性,实现共同富裕是中国式现代化的本质要求。现以共同富裕的理论渊源与内涵解释为基础,从生活富裕富足、精神自信自强等六个方面构建共同富裕的评价指标体系,利用熵权法、马尔科夫链和案例法探索浙江省及其下辖11个地级市2007—2022年的共同富裕发展水平及演变趋势。研究发现,浙江省的共同富裕发展水平在研究期内稳步提升,生活富裕富足和公共服务普及普惠两个指标的对其影响最大。浙江省下属11个地级市的共同富裕发展不平衡现象突出,高水平城市始终保持“领头羊”地位,中等水平城市发展速度较快,中高水平和中低水平城市提升共同富裕发展水平等级的潜力最大,低水平城市的发展优势不足且短板明显,导致其后发优势不明显。因此,政府应考虑建立互助共同体,优化收入分配制度,稳步推动经济发展和公共服务均等化,以突破现有共同富裕发展格局,实现全省共同富裕均衡发展。

中国“AIGC+教育”领域研究热点与演进趋势

生成式人工智能(artificial intelligence generated content,AIGC)的快速发展给教育带来了前所未有的机遇和挑战,日益受到学界的广泛关注。为从整体上评量“AIGC+教育”的研究热点与演进趋势,本研究采用共词分析法,对中文社会科学引文索引(CSSCI)数据库中主题为“AIGC+教育”的223篇文章进行统计分析,以聚类树状图与战略坐标图两种可视化方式,初步勾勒了“AIGC+教育”领域当前的研究现状框架。研究显示,当前的研究热点集中在:①AIGC助力图书馆建设;②AIGC应用于教育的原理、场景与挑战;③AIGC促进教育生态重构;④AIGC与教育元宇宙创新发展;⑤AIGC风险应对策略。战略坐标图则喻示:①②③影响力不大但内部成熟,④研究尚未成熟,而⑤内部关联不紧密,没有形成一个系统的研究领域,在后续研究的发展中易分散演化成其他主题。借助本研究的聚类树状图和战略坐标图,让研究者们快速了解“AIGC+教育”的研究脉络及未来发展趋势,加强沟通与交流合作,形成有效的知识共享和创新协同机制,以促进该研究方向的整合与发展。

CHANGING FEATURES AND TREND OF LIGHT INDUSTRY DISTRIBUTION IN NORTHEAST CHINA

Modern industry in northeast China started from light industry. From the end of 19th century to 1931 was the phase of initial development of light industry in northeast China. During this period, the development of light industry gave priority to grain processing industry. After occupying northeast China, Japanese vigorously developed heavy industry to meet the needs of munitions and paid more attention to raw materials and semi-finished articles industry for the purpose of the war. Light industry was impeded and developed slowly. After the founding of New China, large-scale economic construction took place in northeast and heavy industry received prior investment and equipment. Northeast region became the first heavy industry base through several five-year plans, the development of light industry made giant strides. The present features of light industry distribution are: difference of light industry distribution, similarity of light industry structure, and imbalance of light industry development.

Trends in Domestic Soundscape Research: Knowledge Graph Analysis Based on Cite Space

The development of soundscape has a history of over 20 years to this day. Based on the CNKI database, a contact graph of authors in the field of soundscape is drawn using Cite Space software, and the number of core authors in the field of soundscape is determined to be 30. Based on the number of papers and the evolution of keywords over the years, the development of soundscape research is divided into three stages: exploration stage(1995-2006), pre development stage(2007-2015), and post development stage(2016-present). The research direction is divided into three categories: soundscape perception, soundscape evaluation, and soundscape design. According to various graph analysis, with the continuous development of science and technology, soundscape research fields and methods are gradually diversified, and fields such as soundscape evaluation, soundscape, landscape architecture, soundscape perception and sound stroll have gradually become hot spots in soundscape research.

中国旅游电商政策的演进与发展趋势

以186份中国旅游电商相关政策文件为研究样本,综合使用政策计量、数据分析和人工判读等方法,全面梳理了中国旅游电商领域政策发展历程及演变特征,为今后更好地制定相关政策、促进旅游电商经济发展提供启示和借鉴。结果发现:中国旅游电商政策演进大致可分为4个阶段,分别是2001—2008年萌芽期、2009—2014年起步期、2015—2019年上升期、2020年至今成长期;旅游电商政策主要内容包括在线旅游企业和平台监管、扶贫语境下乡村旅游电商发展、智慧旅游和电商促产业发展等三大类,整体呈现出发文主体多方参与但合力不足、发文主题与时俱进并不断丰富等特征。未来需要在电商行业市场秩序监管、数字文旅产业创新、业态融合力促部门深化合作、乡村振兴配套政策支持等方面增加政策关注。

Evolution Characteristics and Development Trends of Sand Barriers

Sand barriers are one of the main measures used to prevent desertification and have been widely used in desertification control. Here, we use bibliometric methods and content analysis to summarize sand barrier type, applications and research. Existing problems in research are pointed out and revolution characteristics and development trends of sand barriers are discussed. We conclude that three main driving factors have stimulated sand barrier study： demand, technology and development concept. Developing environmentally friendly technology and promoting industrialization of sand area economies are future directions for sand barrier research.

后工业景观公园生态设计思潮演变研究

在信息化和智能化引领的新型工业转型和生态文明建设背景下,“后工业景观公园”作为工业遗存活化利用的主要载体,因其标志性和典型性成为风景园林界实践的重要对象,研究其生态设计思潮的演变对中国生态文明建设具有重要意义。通过梳理国内外后工业景观公园近60年的发展历程,根据公园建设背景、指导理论、生态设计手法,将生态设计思潮划分为1960—1985年探索期的环境修复模式、1986—2005年融合期的郊野景观模式、2006—2019年发展期的自然景观模式以及2020年以来兴盛期的生物友好模式4个阶段。生态设计思潮经历了从消除场地污染的环境修复到兼顾科学修复与艺术表达,从利用自生长植被群落、保护生物栖息地到设计适应生物多样性的友好环境,从被动到主动、从以人为中心的安全防控到人与自然和谐相处的生态审美转变。以期能为我国生态文明转型和高质量发展背景下的工业景观设计提供理论指导和实践借鉴。

1960-2020年河南省极端降水时空演变特征

全球变暖加快了水文循环速度,导致极端降水事件频发,增强了城市排水负荷和洪涝风险,并影响了区域气候的时空特征。在河南省均匀选取26个雨量站对1960—2020年61年间的降水资料进行研究,采用趋势分析、Kriging插值、M-K突变分析、Morlet小波变换和Spearman相关系数等方法对河南省9个极端降水指数的时空演变特征进行分析。结果显示:河南省年降水量呈上升趋势,极端降水事件呈下降趋势,河南省整体气候逐渐变得湿润。河南省极端降水指数具有显著空间差异,东南部极端降水风险显著大于西北部。除降水强度、最大连续降水日数和1 d最大降水量外,其余指数与年降水量、汛期和6—9月的各月降水量具有良好的相关性,这对于评估年降水量及其年内分布特征、极端降水事件频率有较好的参考作用。结果表明:降水从短历时高强度向长历时低强度演变,要应对此类长历时极端降水的风险,防涝思路应从提高短时间大量排水能力转变到提高长时间低强度吸收降水能力。

西部大开发研究热点演进与未来展望——基于CiteSpace的可视化分析

西部大开发战略进入了第三个“十年”,新时代推进西部大开发形成新格局的战略蓝图已经绘就.为了掌握研究现状,识别研究热点,总结研究规律,寻求理论支撑,运用CiteSpace软件,对2000-2021年的2 698篇以“西部大开发”为主题的核心期刊论文绘制知识图谱,进行内容挖掘与分析.研究发现:西部大开发研究热点相对聚焦,主要体现在实施环境、核心要素、实施策略3个层面;演进趋势较为清晰,分为战略实施初探期、区域关系协调期、对外开放深化期、新格局引领发展期4个阶段,与时俱进,逐步深入.最后,结合研究热点演进和现实需求,从区域协调、产业体系、生态环境、创新水平、对外开放5个方面提出未来展望,为推进西部地区高质量发展提供参考与借鉴.