Interdecadal variability of summer precipitation in the Three River Source Region: Influences of SST and zonal shifts of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet

Summer precipitation in the Three Rivers Source Region(TRSR)of China is vital for the headwaters of the Yellow,Yangtze,and Lancang rivers and exhibits significant interdecadal variability.This study investigates the influence of the East Asian westerly jet(EAWJ)on TRSR rainfall.A strong correlation is found between TRSR summer precipitation and the Jet Zonal Position Index(JZPI)of the EAWJ from 1961 to 2019(R=0.619,p<0.01).During periods when a positive JZPI indicates a westward shift in the EAWJ,enhanced water vapor anomalies,warmer air,and low-level convergence anomalies contribute to increased TRSR summer precipitation.Using empirical orthogonal function and regression analyses,this research identifies the influence of large-scale circulation anomalies associated with the Atlantic–Eurasian teleconnection(AEA)from the North Atlantic(NA).The interdecadal variability between the NA and central tropical Pacific(CTP)significantly affects TRSR precipitation.This influence is mediated through the AEA via a Rossby wave train extending eastward along the EAWJ,and another south of 45°N.Moreover,the NA–CTP Opposite Phase Index(OPI),which quantifies the difference between the summer mean sea surface temperatures of the NA and the CTP,is identified as a critical factor in modulating the strength of this teleconnection and influencing the zonal position of the EAWJ.

Evaluation of East Asian Climatology as Simulated by Seven Coupled Models

Using observation and reanalysis data throughout 1961-1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCAR-PCM, are systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models' ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors are displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compared with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances are much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.

Effect of Sea Level Variation on Tidal Characteristic Values for the East China Sea

Tidal waves in the East China Sea are simulated numerically with POM(Princeton Ocean Model) model for normal mean sea level, 30 cm higher, 60 cm higher, and 100 cm higher, respectively, and the simulated result is compared with the harmonic analysis result of hourly sea level data from 19 tide gauges for more than 19 years. It is indicated that the long-term mean sea level variation affects notably tidal waves in this region. Generally, the tidal amplitude increases when the mean sea level rises, but this relationship may be inverse for some sea areas. The maximal variation of tidal amplitude takes place in the zones near the Fujian coast and the Zhejiang coast, rather than the shallowest Bohai Sea. The maximum increase of M2 amplitude can exceed about 15 cm corresponding to the 60 cm rise of the mean sea level along the Fujian coast. The other regions with large variations of tidal amplitude are those along the Jiangsu coast, the south-east coast of Shandong, and the south-east coast of Dalian. The propagation of tidal waves is also related to mean sea level variation, and the tidal phase-lag decreases generally when the mean sea level rises. Almost all the regions where the tidal phase-lag increases with rising mean sea level are close to amphidromic points, meanwhile the spatial area of such regions is very small. Because the influence of mean sea level variation upon tidal waves is spatially marked, such spatial effect should be considered in calculation of the tidal characteristic value and engineering water level. In the region where the amplitudes of the major tidal constituents increase, the probable maximum high water level becomes higher, the probable maximum low water level becomes lower, and both design water level andcheck water level increase obviously. For example, the design water level at Xiamen increases by 13.5 cm due to the variation of tidal waves when the mean sea level rises 60 cm, the total increase of design water level being 73.5 cm.

Spatial Interaction Between the Industrial Undertaking Capacity and Global Value Chain Position of East Asian Countries

A comprehensive understanding of the spatial interaction between the industrial undertaking capability and the position of the global value chain of the 12 East Asian countries is conducive to strengthening regional cooperation, gaining a say in foreign trade and becoming the dominant player in the global division of labor system. The article reveals the operating rules of the interaction between the industrial undertaking capacity and the global value chain position of East Asian countries by calculating the Global Moran Index(Moran’s I), coupling coordination degree and other indicators. The results show that: in time, the values of industrial undertaking capacity and the positions of global value chain in East Asian countries showed a sustained and stable growth trend, and have a consistent trend of change. Spatially, both of the two indexes had significant positive spatial correlation, with Moran’s I showing an ‘inverted U’pattern, and the spatial aggregation distribution of global value chain position lagged behind the spatial aggregation distribution of industrial undertaking capacity by one year. In terms of spatial coupling coordination, the coupling coordination values of the two indicators show a steady upward trend. Combined with the comparative advantage of each country, this paper provides suggestions for promoting the positions of Chinese and other East Asian industries in the global value chain from the perspectives of enhancing independent innovation capability and upgrading industrial structure.

Persistent Variations in the East Asian Trough from March to April and the Possible Mechanism

The East Asian trough(EAT)profoundly influences the East Asian spring climate.In this study,the relationship of the EATs among the three spring months is investigated.Correlation analysis shows that the variation in March EAT is closely related to that of April EAT.Extended empirical orthogonal function(EEOF)analysis also confirms the co-variation of the March and April EATs.The positive/negative EEOF1 features the persistent strengthened/weakened EAT from March to April.Further investigation indicates that the variations in EEOF1 are related to a dipole sea surface temperature(SST)pattern over the North Atlantic and the SST anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean.The dipole SST pattern over the North Atlantic,with one center east of Newfoundland Island and another east of Bermuda,could trigger a Rossby wave train to influence the EAT in March−April.The SST anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean can change the Walker circulation and influence the atmospheric circulation over the tropical western Pacific,subsequently impacting the southern part of the EAT in March−April.Besides the SST factors,the Northeast Asian snow cover could change the regional thermal conditions and lead to persistent EAT anomalies from March to April.These three impact factors are generally independent of each other,jointly explaining large variations in the EAT EEOF1.Moreover,the signals of the three factors could be traced back to February,consequently providing a potential prediction source for the EAT variation in March and April.

The Enhancement of the East Asian Summer Monsoon over Northeast Asia over the Most Recent Two Decades

The East Asian summer monsoon in Northeast Asia(NEA)has experienced an increase in summer rainfall and a delayed end to the rainy season after 2000,suggesting a trend of enhancement.Based on the data analyses spanning 1979-2022,our results show that the increased rainfall amounts are associated with a more pronounced Mongolian cyclone(MC)in July−August,a manifestation of a portion of the Eurasian barotropic Rossby wave train.Sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic(NA)regulate this wave train,with SST increases leading to its amplification.Somewhat independently,a delayed end to the rainy season in September is related to an enhanced anticyclone over the Kuril Islands(ACKI)in the Russian Far East.This anticyclone originates in the Arctic region,possibly induced by the loss of sea ice in the East Siberian Sea,a condition that can be detected two months in advance.The stronger MC and ACKI jointly contribute to the observed enhancement in the East Asian summer monsoon in NEA since 2000 by facilitating ascending motion and moisture transport.Therefore,the SST anomaly in the NA,which is responsible for the intensified rainfall in the rainy season in NEA,coupled with the sea ice conditions in the East Siberian Sea,provides a potential prediction source for the retreat of the rainy season.

Evaluation of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Dataset in Describing East Asian Winter Monsoon Variability

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis （20thCR） dataset released in 2010 covers the period 1871-2010 and is one of the longest reanalysis datasets available worldwide. Using ERA-40, ERA-Interim and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, as well as HadSLP2 data and meteorological temperature records over eastern China, the performances of 20thCR in reproducing the spatial patterns and temporal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） are examined. Results indicate that 20thCR data： （1） can accurately reproduce the most typical configuration patterns of all sub-factors differences in the main circulation fields over East Asia involved in the EAWM system, albeit with some in comparison to ERA-40 reanalysis data; （2） is reliable and stable in describing the temporal variability of EAWM since the 1930s; and （3） can describe the high-frequency variability of EAWM better than the low-frequency fluctuations, especially in the early period. In conclusion, caution should be taken when using 20thCR data to study interdecadal variabilities or long-term trends of the EAWM, especially prior to the 1930s.

Revisiting East Asian monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum using PMIP4 simulations

利用PMIP4多模式试验数据,本文重新检查了末次冰盛期(距今约21000年)东亚季风变化.结果表明:相对于工业革命前期,所有5个模式一致模拟显示末次冰盛期东亚季风减弱,冬季和夏季减幅分别为1%-18%和2-32%;不同模式中东亚季风环流变化的空间分布存在差异,这主要源于该时期大尺度变冷和海平面气压梯度变化的空间分布不同;由于模式之间的差异和重建记录之间的不确定性,未来有待开展更多模拟和重建工作以更好地理解冰期东亚季风变化.

Research Suggests New Toolmaking Timeline for East Asian Hominins

Anew study from the Nihewan basin of China has revealed that hominins who possessed advanced knapping abilities equivalent to Mode 2 technological features occupied East Asia as early as 1.1 million years ago(Ma),which is 0.3 Ma earlier than the date associated with the first handaxes found in East Asia.This suggests that Mode 2 hominins dispersed into East Asia much earlier than previously thought.

Comparison of Human Rights Values Between the East and the West——Summary of the 2019 China-Europe Seminar on Human Rights

The 2019 China-Europe Seminar on Human Rights hosted by the China Society for Human Rights Studies and Austria-China Friendship Association was successfully held in Austria on June 21,2019.Through this conference,China,as an important representative of Eastern countries of human rights,demonstrated its fruitful theoretical and practical human rights achievements to European countries.The conference also witnessed lively communication and exchanges on human rights values and the human rights discourse system between China and the West,during which scholars of the East and the West discussed the universality and particularity of human rights,and the evolution of human rights under different historical and cultural values.The conference advocated that the concept of a community with a shared future for human beings proposed by China should be incorporated into human rights governance of sovereign states and the international community.The convergence and integration of the human rights concepts of the East and the West will inevitably lead human rights practices of the East and the West to embark on a new journey.

Evaluation of the interannual variability in the East Asian summer monsoon in AMIP and historical experiments of CAS FGOALS-f3-L

对东亚夏季季风(EASM)模拟的评估可以提高我们对亚洲季风动力和气候模拟的理解.在这项研究中,通过使用中国科学院(CAS)全球海洋-大气-陆地系统(FGOALS-f3-L)模式参加的第六次耦合模式相互比较计划(CMIP6)中的大气模式相互比较计划(AMIP)和历史(historical)试验,明确了EASM的年际变率的模拟能力.通过多变量经验正交函数(MV-EOF)分析发现,观测的EASM的主导模态为西太平洋上的太平洋-日本模态,并伴有局部反气旋异常.主导模态的方差贡献率为24.6%.历史(historical)试验可以基本再现这种空间模态,其方差贡献率较AMIP试验更接近于观测.与AMIP试验相比,历史(historical)试验还能更好地模拟EASM变率的时间频率.然而,由于历史(historical)模拟没有在积分开始时应用初始化过程,而AMIP试验受到海表面温度(SST)的约束,因此主成分(PC1)的位相在历史(historical)试验中没有得到较好地再现.进一步分析发现,印度洋和西太平洋热带地区的海气相互作用对EASM的模拟非常重要,而EASM气候变率的模拟可能与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的模拟能力有关,这值得进一步分析.

Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with Precipitation of China in Recent 111 Years

Based on the monthly average SLP data in the northern hemisphere from 1899 to 2009, East Asian summer monsoon intensity index in recent 111 years was calculated, and the interdecadal and interannual variation characteristics of East Asian summer monsoon were analyzed. The results showed that East Asian summer monsoon in the 1920s was the strongest. The intensity of East Asian summer monsoon after the middle period of the 1980s presented weakened trend. It was the weakest in the early 21st century. Morlet wavelet analysis found that the interdecadal and interannual variations of East Asian summer monsoon had quasi-10-year and quasi-2-year significance periods. The interannual variation of precipitation in the east of China closely related to intensity variation of East Asian summer monsoon. In strong （weak） East Asian summer monsoon year, the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of Yangtze River was less （more） than that in common year, while the rainfall in North China was more （less） than that in common year. The weakening of East Asian summer monsoon was an important reason for that it was rainless （drought） in North China and rainy （flood） in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River after the middle period of the 1980s.

The Interannual Variability of East Asian Winter Monsoon and Its Relation to the Summer Monsoon

Based on the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data the interannual variability of the East Asian winter mon-soon (EAWM) is studied with a newly defined EAWM intensity index. The marked features for a strong (weak) winter monsoon include strong (weak) northerly winds along coastal East Asia, cold (warm) East Asian continent and surrounding sea and warm (cold) ocean from the subtropical central Pacific to the trop-ical western Pacific, high (low) pressure in East Asian continent and low (high) pressure in the adjacent ocean and deep (weak) East Asian trough at 500 hPa. These interannual variations are shown to be closely connected to the SST anomaly in the tropical Pacific, both in the western and eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the strength of the EAWM is mainly influenced by the processes associated with the SST anom-aly over the tropical Pacific. The EAWM generally becomes weak when there is a positive SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific (El Ni?o), and it becomes strong when there is a negative SST anomaly (La Ni?a). Moreover, the SST anomaly in the South China Sea is found to be closely related to the EAWM and may persist to the following summer. Both the circulation at 850 hPa and the rainfall in China confirm the connection between the EAWM and the following East Asian summer monsoon. The possible reason for the recent 1998 summer flood in China is briefly discussed too. Key words East Asian winter monsoon - Interannual variability - SST - Summer monsoon This study was supported by “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 part 1, and by key project (KZ 952-S1-404) of Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Interannual Meridional Displacement of the East Asian Upper-tropospheric Jet Stream in Summer

On the interannual timescale, the meridional displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream (EAJS) is significantly associated with the rainfall anomalies in East Asia in summer. In this study, using the data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis-2 from 1979 to 2002, the authors investigate the interannual variations of the EAJS's meridional displacement in summer and their associations with the variations of the South Asian high (SAH) and the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), which are dominant circulation features in the upper and lower troposhere, respectively. The result from an EOF analysis shows that the meridional displacement is the most remarkable feature of the interannual variations of the EAJS in each month of summer and in summer as a whole. A composite analysis indicates that the summer (June-July-August, JJA) EAJS index, which is intended to depict the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJS, is not appropriate because the anomalies of the zonal wind at 200 hPa (U200) in July and August only, rather than in June, significantly contribute to the summer EAJS index. Thus, the index for each month in summer is defined according to the location of the EAJS core in each month. Composite analyses based on the monthly indexes show that corresponding to the monthly equatorward displacement of the EAJS, the South Asian high (SAH) extends southeastward clearly in July and August, and the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) withdraws southward in June and August.

Recent Progress in Studies of the Variabilities and Mechanisms of the East Asian Monsoon in a Changing Climate

Located in a monsoon domain,East Asia suffers devastating natural hazards induced by anomalous monsoon behaviors.East Asian monsoon(EAM)research has traditionally been a high priority for the Chinese climate community and is particularly challenging in a changing climate where the global mean temperature has been rising.Recent advances in studies of the variabilities and mechanisms of the EAM are reviewed in this paper,focusing on the interannual to interdecadal time scales.Some new results have been achieved in understanding the behaviors of the EAM,such as the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),including both its onset and withdrawal over the South China Sea,the changes in the northern boundary activity of the EASM,or the transitional climate zone in East Asia,and the cycle of the EASM and the East Asian winter monsoon and their linkages.In addition,understanding of the mechanism of the EAM variability has improved in several aspects,including the impacts of different types of ENSO on the EAM,the impacts from the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean,and the roles of mid-to high-latitude processes.Finally,some scientific issues regarding our understanding of the EAM are proposed for future investigation.

Characteristics and Variations of the East Asian Monsoon System and Its Impacts on Climate Disasters in China

Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.

Characteristics,Processes,and Causes of the Spatio-temporal Variabilities of the East Asian Monsoon System

Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects： the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） system and the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific （EAP） teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the ＂Silk Road＂ teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.

Recent Advances in Studies of the Interaction between the East Asian Winter and Summer Monsoons and ENSO Cycle

Recent advances in studies on the interaction between the East Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle are reviewed in this paper. Through the recent studies, not only have the responding features and processes of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon circulation anomalies and summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia to the ENSO cycle during its different stages been understood further, but also have the thermal and dynamic effects of the tropical \vestern Pacific on the ENSO cycle been deeply analyzed from the observational facts and dynamic theories. The results of observational and theoretical studies showed that the dynamical effect of the atmospheric circulation and zonai wind anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical western Pacific on the ENSO cycle may be through the excitation of the equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave and Rossby waves in the equatorial Pacific. These studies demonstrated further that the ENSO cycle originates from the tropical western Pacific. Moreover, these recent studies also showed that the atmospheric circulation and zonai wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific not only result from the air-sea interaction over the tropical western Pacific, but are also greatly influenced by the East Asian winter and summer monsoons. Additionally, the scientific problems in the interaction between the Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle which should be studied further in the near future are also pointed out in this paper.

An Index Measuring the Interannual Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-The EAP Index

Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.