Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Heavy Precipitation Forecasts from ECMWF in Eastern China

This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern China from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE-TD). A total of 23 heavy rainfall cases occurring between 2018 and 2021 are selected for analysis. Using Typhoon “Rumbia” as a case study, the paper illustrates how the MODE-TD method assesses the overall simulation capability of models for the life history of precipitation systems. The results of multiple tests with different parameter configurations reveal that the model underestimates the number of objects’ forecasted precipitation tracks, particularly at smaller radii. Additionally, the analysis based on centroid offset and area ratio tests for different classified precipitation objects indicates that the model performs better in predicting large-area, fast-moving, and longlifespan precipitation objects. Conversely, it tends to have less accurate predictions for small-area, slow-moving, and shortlifespan precipitation objects. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model overestimates the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model tends to overestimate the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. Overall, the model provides more accurate predictions for the duration and dissipation of precipitation objects with large-area or long-lifespan(such as typhoon precipitation) while having large prediction errors for precipitation objects with small-area or short-lifespan. Furthermore, the model’s simulation results regarding the generation of precipitation objects show that it performs relatively well in simulating the generation of large-area and fast-moving precipitation objects. However, there are significant differences in the forecasted generation of small-area and slow-moving precipitation objects after 9 hours.

Reservoir characteristics and formation model of Upper Carboniferous bauxite series in eastern Ordos Basin,NW China

Through core observation,thin section identification,X-ray diffraction analysis,scanning electron microscopy,and low-temperature nitrogen adsorption and isothermal adsorption experiments,the lithology and pore characteristics of the Upper Carboniferous bauxite series in eastern Ordos Basin were analyzed to reveal the formation and evolution process of the bauxite reservoirs.A petrological nomenclature and classification scheme for bauxitic rocks based on three units(aluminum hydroxides,iron minerals and clay minerals)is proposed.It is found that bauxitic mudstone is in the form of dense massive and clastic structures,while the(clayey)bauxite is of dense massive,pisolite,oolite,porous soil and clastic structures.Both bauxitic mudstone and bauxite reservoirs develop dissolution pores,intercrystalline pores,and microfractures as the dominant gas storage space,with the porosity less than 10% and mesopores in dominance.The bauxite series in the North China Craton can be divided into five sections,i.e.,ferrilite(Shanxi-style iron ore,section A),bauxitic mudstone(section B),bauxite(section C),bauxite mudstone(debris-containing,section D)and dark mudstone-coal section(section E).The burrow/funnel filling,lenticular,layered/massive bauxite deposits occur separately in the karst platforms,gentle slopes and low-lying areas.The karst platforms and gentle slopes are conducive to surface water leaching,with strong karstification,well-developed pores,large reservoir thickness and good physical properties,but poor strata continuity.The low-lying areas have poor physical properties but relatively continuous and stable reservoirs.The gas enrichment in bauxites is jointly controlled by source rock,reservoir rock and fractures.This recognition provides geological basis for the exploration and development of natural gas in the Upper Carboniferous in the study area and similar bauxite systems.

Public-private-partnership needs under the National Tuberculosis Elimination Program in an Eastern Indian state

Eliminating tuberculosis(TB)is among India's top public health priorities[1].Despite the considerable progress in providing quality TB care services,the Global TB report-2022 reveals that India is amongst the eight high TB burden countries that contributed to more than two-thirds(68.3%)of the global TB cases[2].To strengthen and aid the TB elimination efforts by 2025,five years ahead of the sustainable development goal target,the Government of India,under the program,promotes intersectoral convergence with various public sector departments and the private sector.The national multisectoral action framework for TB-free India promotes private-private or public-private partnerships for sustainable and impactful Corporate Social Responsibility initiatives[3].

Different ENSO Impacts on Eastern China Precipitation Patterns in Early and Late Winter Associated with Seasonally-Varying Kuroshio Anticyclonic Anomalies

Winter precipitation over eastern China displays remarkable interannual variability,which has been suggested to be closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).This study finds that ENSO impacts on eastern China precipitation patterns exhibit obvious differences in early(November-December)and late(January-February)winter.In early winter,precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO are characterized by a monopole spatial distribution over eastern China.In contrast,the precipitation anomaly pattern in late winter remarkably changes,manifesting as a dipole spatial distribution.The noteworthy change in precipitation responses from early to late winter can be largely attributed to the seasonally varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies.During the early winter of El Niño years,anticyclonic circulation anomalies appear both over the Philippine Sea and Kuroshio region,enhancing water vapor transport to the entirety of eastern China,thus contributing to more precipitation there.During the late winter of El Niño years,the anticyclone over the Philippine Sea is further strengthened,while the one over the Kuroshio dissipates,which could result in differing water vapor transport between northern and southern parts of eastern China and thus a dipole precipitation distribution.Roughly the opposite anomalies of circulation and precipitation are displayed during La Niña winters.Further analysis suggests that the seasonally-varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies are possibly related to the enhancement of ENSO-related tropical central-eastern Pacific convection from early to late winter.These results have important implications for the seasonal-tointerannual predictability of winter precipitation over eastern China.

Changes of the trace metals in ice core during 1915-2016 in coastal eastern Antarctica

Antarctic trace metal records provide important information for grasping the influence of human activities on the environment over the last centuries.The CA2016-75 ice core is located along the East Antarctic Zhongshan Station-Dome A,enhances the record of metals research in the East Antarctic region,and its high-resolution supplies data support for the study of high-frequency climatic drivers and the effect of human activities on the Antarctic environment.A thorough dataset on seven trace metals(Al,Fe,Mn,Cu,Zn,Ba and Pb)in a coastal ice core in eastern Antarctica during the previous 102 years(1915-2016)is presented in this study.Pb has the lowest concentration(9.51±20.95 pg g^(-1)),and Ba has the highest concentration(36.57±51.35 ng g^(-1)).Notable variations are observed between the pre-1968 AD and post-1968 AD phases for Mn,Zn and Ba.The abrupt,remarkable increase in the concentrations coincided with the change of metal smelting production in the southern hemisphere.In addition to this,it may also be related to local Antarctic scientific research activities.Al and Fe,the primary crustal elements,are essentially obtained from soil dust;Cu shows high crustal enrichment factors(EFc,>10),indicating that it is notably affected by anthropogenic activities.Moreover,the anthropogenic activities in the Southern Hemisphere have had an impact on lead deposition in Antarctica.This study not only enriches the trace metal historical record along the Zhongshan Station-Dome A but also provides a high-resolution ice core record,which is very crucial for the reconstruction of trace metal concentration changes in the last 100 years.

The nature and movement of thrusts in the eastern Iranian orogen:Sechengi Area on the northern border of Lut and Sistan

The eastern Iranian range,known as the Sistan suture zone in the past,has recently been identified as the Sistan orogen.This Paleogene orogeny is located between the Lut and Afghan microcontinents.The structural analysis shows that most of the thrusts dip towards the NW so that the Permo-Triassic sediments and Jurassic micro-diorites of the Lut Block overthrusted over the younger rocks.Structural studies show that the tectonic vergence was from the NW to the SE of the Sechengi area in the NW part of Sistan orogen.We recognized three deformation phases in eastern Iran.The first N-S deformation event(D1)resulted in the formation of tight E-W folds(F1)and associated cleavages(S1).The second E-W deformation event(D2),which occurred in the late Paleogene led to the bending of older structures,including the axial plane of the first-generation folds giving them a new northwest direction(F2).Additionally,the ramp of the first-phase thrusts(striking E-W)was reactivated,acquiring a new NNW orientation and exhibiting SSE tectonic vergence.The third deformation event(D3)resulted in the formation of NNE and WNW conjugate faults in eastern Iran.Such consecutive deformation events perpendicular to each other are inconsistent with the models of simple linear orogen presented for eastern Iran(i.e.rifting of eastern Iran continental crust and subsequence linear collision)and seem more consistent with the buckling orogeny(Orocline).

Trend of Storm Surge Induced by Typical Landfall Super Typhoons During 1975–2021 in the Eastern China Sea

Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.

On the Praxis-Oriented Semiotic Aesthetics in Eastern European Marxism

Eastern European Marxism,taking a critical stance towards structuralism,gave rise to a unique paradigm of praxis-oriented semiotic aesthetics.This novel approach posits that signs emerge from humans’social praxis and also function as a means of praxis.It further delves into the principle governing the generation and usage of signs,i.e.,the Economy Principle,the homogenization of signs,the situatedness or contextual constraints,as well as their aesthetic features and transcendental attributes.As a result,the praxis-oriented semiotic aesthetics within Eastern European Marxism exhibits distinct theoretical value.

Texture and Geochemistry of Multi-stage Hydrothermal Scheelite in the Mamupu Cu-Au-Mo(-W)Deposit,Eastern Tibet:Implications for Tungsten Mineralization in the Yulong Belt

Multistage tungsten mineralization was recently discovered in the Mamupu copper-polymetallic deposit in the southern Yulong porphyry copper belt(YPCB),Tibet.This study reports the results of cathodoluminescence,trace element and Sr isotope analyses of Mamupu scheelite samples,undertaken in order to better constrain the mechanism of W mineralization and the sources of the ore-forming fluids.Three different types of scheelite are identified in the Mamupu deposit:scheelite A(Sch A)mainly occurs in breccias during the prograde stage,scheelite B(Sch B)forms in the chlorite-epidote alteration zone in the retrograde stage,while scheelite C(Sch C)occurs in distal quartz sulfide veins.The extremely high Mo content and negative Eu anomaly in Sch A represent high oxygen fugacity in the prograde stage.Compared with ore-related porphyries,Sch A has a similar REE pattern,but with higher ΣREE,more depleted HREE and slightly lower(^(87)Sr/^(86)Sr)i ratios.These features suggest that Sch A is genetically related to ore-related porphyries,but extensive interaction with carbonate surrounding rocks affects the final REE and Sr isotopic composition.Sch B shows dark(Sch B-I)and light(Sch B-II)domains under CL imaging.From Sch B-I to Sch B-II,LREEs are gradually depleted,with MREEs being gradually enriched.Sch C has the highest LREE/HREE ratio,which indicates that it inherited the geochemical characteristics of fluids after the precipitation of HREE-rich minerals,such as diopside and garnet,in the early prograde stage.The Mo content in Sch B and Sch C gradually decreased,indicating that the oxygen fugacity of the fluids changed from oxidative in the early stages to reductive in the later,the turbulent Eu anomaly in Sch B and Sch C indicating that the Eu anomaly in the Mamupu scheelite is not solely controlled by oxygen fugacity.The extensive interaction of magmatic-hydrothermal fluids and carbonate provides the necessary Ca^(2+)for the precipitation of scheelite in the Mamupu deposit.

Observation of Low-Level Jets in the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean Based on Shipborne Coherent Doppler Lidar

In contrast to the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans,the Indian Ocean has lacked in-situ observations of wind profiles over open sea areas for decades.In 2021,a shipborne coherent Doppler lidar(CDL)was used to observe in-situ wind profiles in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean.This equipment successfully captured low-level jets(LLJs)in the region,and their characteristics were thoroughly analyzed.Results reveal that the observed wind speed of LLJs in the eastern Indian Ocean ranges from 6 m s^(-1) to 10 m s^(-1) during the boreal winter and spring seasons,showing a height range of 0.6 to 1 km and two peak times at 0800 and 2000 UTC.This wind shear is weaker than that in land or offshore areas,ranging from 0 s^(-1) to 0.006 s^(-1).Moreover,the accuracy of the CDL data is compared to that of ERA5 data in the study area.The results indicate that the zonal wind from ERA5 data significantly deviated from the CDL measurement data,and the overall ERA5 data are substantially weaker than the in-situ observations.Notably,ERA5 underestimates northwestward LLJs.

Mineralogy and geochemistry of trachytic rocks from the Lichi Volcanics, Eastern Himalaya: insights into the Kerguelen mantle plume activity in the Eastern Himalayan Region

The Lichi volcanics are a suite of mafic-intermediate-felsic rocks and are considered coeval with the Abor volcanics(~132 Ma) of the Siang window in the Eastern Himalaya. Here, we present the first report of trachytic rocks from the Lichi volcanics, which are exposed in the Ranga valley, along the Kimin-Yazali road section in the Eastern Himalayan Region, Northeast India. The trachytes occur in close association with sandstones of the Gondwana Group of rocks and are characterised based on field, petrographical, and geochemical investigations.These fine-grained trachytes are composed of alkali feldspar, biotite, plagioclase, sodic-amphibole, apatite, illmenite, and titanite. The REE profiles of the evolved trachytic rocks(higher SiO_(2)content) display fractionated trends. The fractionation of accessory mineral phases, like apatite and titanite, was possibly responsible for the strongly fractionated REE patterns of the evolved samples.The trachytic rocks demonstrate high apatite saturation temperatures of 988 ± 14 ℃(1σ, n = 8). The Aluminium Saturation Index(< 1.1) and binary discrimination diagrams of these peralkaline trachytes define their affinity with A-type granitoids. Elemental ratios like Y/Nb, Nb/U,and Ce/Pb signify that the Lichi trachytes are differentiated products of mantle-derived ocean island basalts. Trace elemental discrimination diagrams Th/Yb versus Nb/Yb, Y versus Nb, and Y + Nb versus Rb reflect a within-plate tectonic regime for the trachytes. From the results presented in this work, we infer that the development of rifting events during the breakup of eastern Gondwana due to the onset of Kerguelen plume activity further led to underplating of basic magma in lower crustal levels. These parental basaltic magmas underwent fractionation processes forming differentiated trachyandesites and trachytes.Taking into consideration the similarities recorded between the Lichi volcanics and Abor volcanics, this study supports the idea that Kerguelen plume activities resulted in the emplacement of these volcanics in the Eastern Himalayas.

Geochemistry of island arc assemblage in the Eastern Desert of Egypt and the role of Pan-African magmatism in crustal growth of the Arabian–Nubian Shield:A review

Neoproterozoic island arc assemblage of the Arabian–Nubian Shield(ANS)in the Eastern Desert(ED)of Egypt comprises juvenile suites of metavolcanics(MV),large amounts of meta-sedimentary rocks(MS),and voluminous metagabbros-diorites(MGD)and syn-tectonic intrusions of older granitoids(OG).We report here the updates of these four rock units in terms of classification,distribution,chemical characteristics,geodynamic evolution,metamorphism,and ages.In addition,we discuss these integrated data to elucidate a reasonable and reliable model for crustal evolution in the ANS.The main features of these rock units indicate their relation to each other and the geodynamic environment dominated by early immature oceanic island arcs to primitive continental arcs.Integrated information of the island arc metavolcanic and plutonic rocks(gabbros,diorites,tonalites,and granodiorites)furnish evidence of the genetic relationships.These include proximity and a coeval nature in the field;all protolith magmas are subalkaline in nature following calc-alkaline series with minor tholeiitic affinities;common geochemical signature of the arc rocks and subduction-related magmatism;their similar enrichment in LREEs;and similar major element compositions with mafic melts derived from metasomatized mantle wedge.The volcano-sedimentary and the OG rocks underwent multiphase deformation events whereas the MGD complexes deformed slightly.Based on the magmatic,sedimentological,and metamorphic evolutions constrained by geochronological data as well as the progressive evolutionary trend from extensional to compressional regimes,a possible gradual decrease in the subducted slab dip angle is the most infl uential in any geodynamic model for arc assemblage in the ED of Egypt.

April-September minimum temperature reconstruction based on Sabina tibetica ring-width chronology in the central eastern Tibetan Plateau,China

Minimum temperatures have remarkable impacts on tree growth at high-elevation sites on the Tibetan Plateau,but the shortage of long-term and high-resolution paleoclimate records inhibits understanding of recent minimum temperature anomalies.In this study,a warm season(April–September)reconstruction is presented for the past 467 years(1550–2016)based on Sabina tibetica ring-width chronology on the Lianbaoyeze Mountain of the central eastern Tibetan Plateau.Eight warm periods and eight cold periods were identified.Long-term minimum temperature variations revealed a high degree of coherence with nearby reconstructions.Spatial correlations between our reconstruction and global sea surface temperatures suggest that warm season minimum temperature anomalies in the central eastern Tibetan Plateau were strongly influenced by large-scale ocean atmospheric circulations,such as the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

Mechanism of Diabatic Heating on Precipitation and the Track of a Tibetan Plateau Vortex over the Eastern Slope of the Tibetan Plateau

Existing studies contend that latent heating(LH)will replace sensible heating(SH)to become the dominant factor affecting the development of the Tibetan Plateau vortex(TPV)after it moves off the Tibetan Plateau(TP).However,in the process of the TPV moving off the TP requires that the airmass traverse the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau(ESTP)where the topography and diabatic heating(DH)conditions rapidly change.How LH gradually replaces SH to become the dominant factor in the development of the TPV over the ESTP is still not very clear.In this paper,an analysis of a typical case of a TPV with a long life history over the ESTP is performed by using multi-sourced meteorological data and model simulations.The results show that SH from the TP surface can change the TPV-associated precipitation distribution by temperature advection after the TPV moves off the TP.The LH can then directly promote the development of the TPV and has a certain guiding effect on the track of the TPV.The SH can control the active area of LH by changing the falling area of the TPV-associated precipitation,so it still plays a key role in the development and tracking of the TPV even though it has moved out of the main body of the TP.

Health Assessment of Typical Reservoirs in Eastern Jilin: A Case Study of Niligou Reservoir

Niligou Reservoir,a typical reservoir in the eastern region of Jilin Province,is subordinate to Niligou River,which is located in the Changbai Mountains in eastern Jilin,with abundant plant and animal resources and well protected biodiversity in the basin,but there are also some related problems such as fragile ecosystem of forest wetland.This paper carried out a health assessment of Niligou River,including water quality monitoring,aquatic organism monitoring,and riparian zone investigation.According to the requirements of the Technical Guidelines for River and Lake Health Assessment,13 assessment indexes were selected to build a river and lake health assessment index system.By sorting and analyzing the monitoring and investigation data,we got a clear picture of the ecological environment status and existing problems of Niligou Res-ervoir.Based on the actual situation of Niligou River,we evaluated the hydrologic integrity,chemical integrity,morphological and structural integrity,biological integrity and sustainability of social service function,and put forward corresponding countermeasures according to the re-sults,in order to provide a technical support for the health treatment of rivers and lakes in Jilin Province.

Aerial Silk Road Soars The“Silk Road in the Air”promoted by China Eastern Airlines will reach around the world to bring people in BRI partner countries even closer together

Two thousand years ago,the Silk Road connecting Xi’an to Rome was a long journey that took more than a year.Today,China Eastern Airlines makes the journey in just over 10 hours with the world’s most advanced wide-body airliner.The power of civil aviation has made the Silk Road more convenient than ever before.Over the last decade of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),the“Aerial Silk Road”has connected more and more destinations around the world.

Responses of the Southern Ocean mixed layer depth to the eastern and central Pacific El Niño events during austral winter

Based on the Ocean Reanalysis System version 5(ORAS5)and the fifth-generation reanalysis datasets derived from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5),we investigate the different impacts of the central Pacific(CP)El Niño and the eastern Pacific(EP)El Niño on the Southern Ocean(SO)mixed layer depth(MLD)during austral winter.The MLD response to the EP El Niño shows a dipole pattern in the South Pacific,namely the MLD dipole,which is the leading El Niño-induced MLD variability in the SO.The tropical Pacific warm sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)signal associated with the EP El Niño excites a Rossby wave train propagating southeastward and then enhances the Amundsen Sea low(ASL).This results in an anomalous cyclone over the Amundsen Sea.As a result,the anomalous southerly wind to the west of this anomalous cyclone advects colder and drier air into the southeast of New Zealand,leading to surface cooling through less total surface heat flux,especially surface sensible heat(SH)flux and latent heat(LH)flux,and thus contributing to the mix layer(ML)deepening.The east of the anomalous cyclone brings warmer and wetter air to the southwest of Chile,but the total heat flux anomaly shows no significant change.The warm air promotes the sea ice melting and maintains fresh water,which strengthens stratification.This results in a shallower MLD.During the CP El Niño,the response of MLD shows a separate negative MLD anomaly center in the central South Pacific.The Rossby wave train triggered by the warm SSTA in the central Pacific Ocean spreads to the Amundsen Sea,which weakens the ASL.Therefore,the anomalous anticyclone dominates the Amundsen Sea.Consequently,the anomalous northerly wind to the west of anomalous anticyclone advects warmer and wetter air into the central and southern Pacific,causing surface warming through increased SH,LH,and longwave radiation flux,and thus contributing to the ML shoaling.However,to the east of the anomalous anticyclone,there is no statistically significant impact on the MLD.

Hematological Alterations in an Eastern Sudanese Chronic Kidney Disease Patient Population

Background: Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), associated with a slow and progressive loss of kidney function over a period of several years, is an important clinical disaster with an increasing rate of morbidity and mortality especially in the least developed countries. Many hematological parameters are thought to alter dramatically during the course of the disease. These include white blood cells, red blood cells, and platelets. Methods: We tried, retrospectively, to evaluate the peripheral blood hematological alterations in a group of patients undergoing hemodialysis in an eastern Sudan dialysis center to add local medical information. Results: Anemia (Low hemoglobin and hematocrit) was detected in 94% of the patients’ group. Mean Erythrocyte count (3.32vs.4.76 (×109/L)), Hemoglobin concentration (9.4vs.13 (g/dl)), Hematocrit (28.7vs.38.7 (L/L)) and platelet count (296 vs. 238 (×109/L)) were significantly lower in the patients’ group than in the control group (P-values Conclusion: Five out of eight studied parameters (Red cell count, hemoglobin, hematocrit, mean cell hemoglobin concentration, and platelets count) have shown a significant alteration in CKD patients. As the complete blood count (CBC) test is the most utilized test in clinical laboratory practice, these alterations may be considered as early indicators for CKD. Furthermore, all patients with CKD must be routinely checked for these alterations.

Building a Business and Strategic Intelligence Policy as a Strategy for Promoting Congolese Business Progress and Healthy Economic Development in Eastern DRC

The aim of this study was to verify the existence of business and strategic intelligence policies at the level of Congolese companies and at the state level, likely to foster progress and healthy development in the east of the DRC. The study was based on a mixed perspective consisting of objective analysis of quantitative data and interpretative analysis of qualitative data. The results showed that business and strategic intelligence policies have not been established at either company or state level, as this is an area of activity that is not known to the players in companies and public departments, and there are no units or offices in their organizational structures responsible for managing strategic information for competitiveness on the international market. In addition, there is a real need to establish strategic information management units within companies, upstream, and to set up a national strategic information management department or agency to help local companies compete in the marketplace, downstream. This reflects the importance and timeliness of building business and strategic intelligence policies to ensure economic progress and development in the eastern DRC. Business and strategic intelligence provides companies with an appropriate tool for researching, collecting, processing and disseminating information useful for decision-making among stakeholders, in order to cope with a crisis or competitive situation. The study suggests a number of key recommendations based on its findings. To the government, it is recommended to establish the national policy of business and strategic intelligence by setting up a national agency of strategic intelligence in favor of local companies;and to companies to establish business intelligence units in their organizational structures in favor of stakeholders to foster advantageous decision-making in the competitive market and achieve progress. Finally, the study suggests that studies be carried out to fully understand the opportunities and impact of business and strategic intelligence in African countries, particularly in the DRC.

Anthropogenic influence on the extreme drought in eastern China in 2022 and its future risk

2022年夏季中国东部地区遭遇了一次持续性极端高温干旱事件.本文利用CMIP6检测归因比较计划(DAMIP)数据,量化了人为强迫对类2022年极端干旱事件发生概率的影响,并基于未来不同增暖情景试验给出了此类极端干旱事件的未来变化预估.通过分析不同外强迫因子作用下此类极端干旱事件的发生概率变化,发现人为强迫使此类极端干旱事件的发生概率提高约56%,这主要与人为强迫下中国东部平均水汽减少和平均上升运动减弱有关.进一步通过分析此类极端干旱事件对不同温室气体排放情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)的响应,发现在低排放情景下类2022年极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候显著下降,这主要与中国东部平均水汽的增加和平均环流的变化有关,而在高排放情景(SSP5-8.5)下,此类极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候增加约79%,这主要与高排放情景下平均下沉运动增强有关.该研究表明,人为强迫通过调制气候平均背景场从而引起极端事件发生频次的变化是人类活动影响极端气候事件的重要途径之一,极端干旱事件对温室气体排放量的响应可能是非线性的.