The Extreme Machine Learning Actuarial Intelligent Agricultural Insurance Based Automated Underwriting Model

The paper presents an innovative approach towards agricultural insurance underwriting and risk pricing through the development of an Extreme Machine Learning (ELM) Actuarial Intelligent Model. This model integrates diverse datasets, including climate change scenarios, crop types, farm sizes, and various risk factors, to automate underwriting decisions and estimate loss reserves in agricultural insurance. The study conducts extensive exploratory data analysis, model building, feature engineering, and validation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Additionally, the paper discusses the application of robust tests, stress tests, and scenario tests to assess the model’s resilience and adaptability to changing market conditions. Overall, the research contributes to advancing actuarial science in agricultural insurance by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques for enhanced risk management and decision-making.

Does community-based health insurance affect lifestyle and timing of treatment seeking behavior?Evidence from Ethiopia

Objectives This paper aims to investigate the effects of enrollment in the Ethiopian community-based health insurance(CBHI)scheme on household preventive care activities and the timing of treatment-seeking behavior for illness symptoms.There is growing concern about the financial sustainability of CBHI schemes in developing countries.However,few empirical studies have identified potential contributors,including ex-ante and ex-post moral hazards.Methods We implement a household fixed-effect panel data regression model,drawing on three rounds of household survey data collected face to face in districts where CBHI scheme is operational and in districts where it is not operational in Ethiopia.Results The findings show that enrolment in CBHI does not significantly influence household behaviour regarding preventive care activities such as water treatment before drinking and handwashing before meals.However,CBHI significantly increases delay in treatment-seeking behaviour for diseases symptoms.Particularly,on average,we estimate about 4-6 h delay for malaria symptoms,a little above 4 h for tetanus,and 10-11 h for tuberculosis among the insured households.Conclusions While there is evidence that CBHI improve the utilization of outpatient or primary care services,our study suggests that insured members may wait longer before visiting health facilities.This delay could be partly due to moral hazard problems,as insured households,particularly those from rural areas,may consider the opportunity costs associated with visiting health facilities for minor symptoms.Overall,it is essential to identify the primary causes of delays in seeking medical services and implement appropriate interventions to encourage insured individuals to seek early medical attention.

China Continues to Be World’s Second Largest Insurance Market

Allianz Group recently released the Allianz Global Insurance Report,predicting that China will consolidate its position as the world’s second largest insurance market in the next decade.The report analyzes the business performance of the global insurance market in 2023 and forecasts the development direction and trends of the global insurance industry in the next decade.2023:A year of significant growth According to the report,in 2023,the global insurance industry grew by an impressive 7.5%,which is the fastest rate since the pre-Global Financial Crisis(GFC)era.

Telematics as a Transformative Agent for the Zimbabwean Auto Insurance Ecosystem

Zimbabwe has witnessed the evolution of Information Communication Technology (ICT). The vehicle population soared to above 1.2 million hence rendering the Transport and Insurance domains complex. Therefore, there is a need to look at ways that can augment conventional Vehicular Management Information Systems (VMIS) in transforming business processes through Telematics. This paper aims to contextualise the role that telematics can play in transforming the Insurance Ecosystem in Zimbabwe. The main objective was to investigate the integration of Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) with vehicle tracking solutions provided by technology companies like Econet Wireless in Zimbabwe, aiming to align customer billing with individual risk profiles and enhance the synergy between technology and insurance service providers in the motor insurance ecosystem. A triangulation through structured interviews, questionnaires, and literature review, supported by Information Systems Analysis and Design techniques was conducted. The study adopted a case study approach, qualitatively analyzing the complexities of the Telematics insurance ecosystem in Zimbabwe, informed by the TOGAF framework. A case-study approach was applied to derive themes whilst applying within and cross-case analysis. Data was collected using questionnaires, and interviews. The findings of the research clearly show the importance of Telematics in modern-day insurance and the positive relationship between technology and insurance business performance. The study, therefore revealed how UBI can incentivize positive driver behavior, potentially reducing insurance premiums for safe drivers and lowering the incidence of claims against insurance companies. Future work can be done on studying the role of Telematics in combating highway crime and corruption.

Optimal Insurance with Background Risk under the Ambiguity and Belief Heterogeneity Structure

In this paper, we discuss the optimal insurance in the presence of background risk while the insured is ambiguity averse and there exists belief heterogeneity between the insured and the insurer. We give the optimal insurance contract when maxing the insured’s expected utility of his/her remaining wealth under the smooth ambiguity model and the heterogeneous belief form satisfying the MHR condition. We calculate the insurance premium by using generalized Wang’s premium and also introduce a series of stochastic orders proposed by [1] to describe the relationships among the insurable risk, background risk and ambiguity parameter. We obtain the deductible insurance is the optimal insurance while they meet specific dependence structures.

A Market Model of Risk Transfer and Insurance

We introduce a model of a market where risk-averse consumers pay a fee to transfer their future losses to one or more firms.The future loss of each consumer is stochastic with a unique,known mean and variance.The law of large numbers allows the firms to know with certainty the expected aggregate loss of the consumers to whom they sell.The model could describe the behavior of agents in the market for property insurance where an insurance company sells a single type of policy to a specific group of consumers based upon the expected losses of those consumers and their willingness to pay for coverage.The model demonstrates how a single firm can choose the optimal segment of the market to which they sell a policy and how that choice might change when the distribution of consumers and their risk aversion changes.The model also demonstrates how two firms might engage in a cooperative strategy and share the market.The model shows how a firm entering the market will find it more advantageous to target a segment of the market with consumers that have a lower expected loss.

Analysis of Drug Medical Insurance Access Pricing Based on the Perspective of Binary Equilibrium

Objective To study the influencing factors in the process of national medical insurance negotiation and drug pricing from the dualistic equilibrium perspective,and to provide reference for the harmonious management of drug pricing in China.Methods Through the literature analysis and policy review,the pricing subject,pricing basis and price control system in the pricing process of medical-accessed medicines were analyzed from the perspective of binary equilibrium and harmonious management.Results and Conclusion It is found that four balances in the drug pricing process,two balances in pricing basis and three balances in price control system need to be considered,respectively.Drug pricing is the key content of national medical insurance access,which is also the hotspot of the policy in the pharmaceutical fields in recent years.Drug pricing not only reflects the value of drugs,but also reflects a lot of top-level designs of binary equilibriums in medical insurance policy.While the rational design of drug pricing requires the joint efforts of the government,pharmaceutical companies and relevant experts to comprehensively consider many equilibriums,so as to improve the relevant systems.

Research on the Establishment of a Long-Term Care System for the Elderly with Alzheimer’s Disease Under the Background of Long-Term Care Insurance: A Literature Review

With the aging of the country’s population structure,the problem of social pensions is becoming more and more serious.As for the issue of social pension,the elderly with Alzheimer’s disease are a special group,and the issue of care services for these elderly has attracted widespread attention from society.However,judging from the current level of social security provided to the elderly with dementia in the country,there is a serious imbalance between supply and demand.Therefore,this problem needs to be solved urgently and is of great significance for further improving the country’s social pension security system.Routine care is limited to hospitals and mainly focuses on the patient’s condition.Patients fail to receive comprehensive care services and the effect is not ideal.Therefore,in order to improve patients’cognitive function and quality of life,and learn from international experience,a“community-institution-home”three-dimensional linkage care model based on long-term care insurance can be established.The application of this model can effectively solve and further improve the country’s elderly care and social security system.

Multistage Stochastic Programming Model for the Portfolio Problem of a Property-Liability Insurance Company

The current portfolio model for property-liability insurance company is only single period that can not meet the practical demands of portfolio management, and the purpose of this paper is to develop a multiperiod model for its portfolio problem. The model is a multistage stochastic programming which considers transaction costs, cash flow between time periods, and the matching of asset and liability; it does not depend on the assumption for normality of return distribution. Additionally, an investment constraint is added. The numerical example manifests that the multiperiod model can more effectively assist the property-liability insurer to determine the optimal composition of insurance and investment portfolio and outperforms the single period one.

Obstacles and Countermeasures for Policyoriented Agricultural Insurance Development in the Context of Agricultural Modernization

Agricultural insurance is a key impetus for agricultural modernization. How- ever, there are some problems on the aspect, including deficiency of law supports and top system design, less recognition on insurance of farmers and low effective demands of agricultural insurance market, huge agricultural risks and insufficient supply from agricultural insurance market, and shortage of reinsurance support and disaster risk desertification, hardly to deal with heavy disasters. Therefore, some countermeasures were proposed, including to formulate agricultural insurance laws and establish specific agricultural insurance management institutions, to reinforce promotion and improve premium subsidy system in order to increase market de- mands, to increase tax preference and operating costs, improve insurance services and enhance effective supply in market and to construct a risk diversification system of agricultural heavy disaster.

GAMES ANALYSIS OF INSURANCE PRICING UNDER CONSIDERING MORAL HAZARD

This paper first gives an explanation of moral hazard in the insurance field,and then offers a game theory model about insurance pricing according to the non zero sum game analysis between the insurer and the insured when moral hazard exists.On the basis of the game analysis,this paper also presents a lowest pricing formula and studies the cost of moral hazard simultaneously.

Crop Insurance, Premium Subsidy and Agricultural Output

This paper studied the effects of crop insurance on agricultural output with an economic growth model. Based on Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans （RCK） model, a basic model of agriculture economic growth was developed. Extending the basic model to incorporate uncertainty and insurance mechanism, a risk model and a risk-insurance model were built to study the inlfuences of risk and crop insurance on agricultural output. Compared with the steady states of the three models, the following results are achieved：（i） agricultural output decreases if we introduce uncertainty into the risk-free model;（ii） crop insurance promotes agriculture economic growth if insurance mechanism is introduced into the risk model;（iii） premium subsidy constantly improves agricultural output. Our contribution is that we studied the effects of crop insurance and premium subsidy from the perspective of economic growth in a dynamic framework, and proved the output promotion of crop insurance theoretically.

Farmers using insurance and cooperatives to manage agricultural risks: A case study of the swine industry in China

Purchasing agricultural insurance and joining agricultural cooperatives are two prevalent instruments used by farmers in China for dealing with agricultural risks. Data from 443 swine farmers in Jiangsu and Henan provinces of China were collected. Factors affecting the farmers’ decision to purchase agricultural insurance and join agricultural cooperatives were assessed. The possibility of simultaneous use of both instruments and the potential correlation between these two decisions was considered as well. Results showed that the farmers’ decision to use agricultural insurance and cooperatives was positively correlated, indicating that farmers who purchased agricultural insurance which mainly used to mitigate production risks were more likely to join agricultural cooperatives which more used to share market risks, and vice versa. Farmers’ knowledge of swine insurance and trust in the local government positively impacted the purchase of agricultural insurance, while education, years involved in swine production and scale of swine production positively impacted farmers joining agricultural cooperatives.

Engineering models for catastrophe risk and their application to insurance

Internationally earthquake insurance,like all other insurance (fire,auto),adopted actuarial approach in the past, which is,based on historical loss experience to determine insurance rate.Due to the fact that earthquake is a rare event with severe consequence,irrational determination of premium rate and lack of understanding scale of potential loss led to many insurance companies insolvent after Northridge earthquake in 1994. Along with recent advances in earth science,computer science and engineering,computerized loss estimation methodologies based on first principles have been developed to the point that losses from destructive earthquakes can be quantified with reasonable accuracy using scientific modeling techniques. This paper intends to introduce how engineering models can assist to quantify earthquake risk and how insurance industry can use this information to manage their risk in the United States and abroad.

Potato farmers’ preference for agricultural insurance in China: An investigation using the choice experimental method

Potato insurance plays an important role in transferring agricultural risks to promote the potato staple strategy. Understanding farmers’ real preferences for potato insurance attributes is important to improve the potato insurance. In this study, a choice experiment was designed with attributes such as peril, minimum compensation ratio for production loss, types of crops covered by insurance, annual premium per mu after subsidy, and complexity of claims procedures. We constructed a mixed logit model based on a questionnaire survey of 362 potato farmers’ choices of insurance attributes from 24 villages in Dingxi City of Gansu Province using random sampling. The results show that:(1) farmers prefer agricultural insurance with widely perils including output price drop and input cost risk;(2) farmers who have suffered plant disease and insect and pest damage are willing to pay a high premium for the insurance with a high compensation ratio and several types of crops covered;full-time farmers and large-scale farmers preferred insurance products with low complexity of claims procedures. Therefore, new potato insurance design could be considered specifically for different farmer groups such as those who had previous disaster experiences, and large-or small-scale farm operations.

Farmers' Perception and Awareness and Factors Affecting Awareness of Farmers Regarding Crop Insurance as a Risk Coping Mechanism Evidence from Pakistan

This study has been conducted in three districts of Punjab Province namely, Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajan Pur and Bahawalpur of Pakistan. The study showed the results of a survey of 300 farmers which was organized to assess awareness level of farmers regarding crop insurance, factors affecting the awareness level among farmers and the perception of farmers about crop insurance. Based on exploratory research work upon the responses of farmers, the average and standard deviation were calculated. Probit model was applied to explore the factors affecting the awareness level of farmers. SPSS was used for the analysis of the collected data. The results revealed that out of 300 farmers, 184 farmers were aware with crop insurance and rests of the 116 farmers were not aware. Banks and E-media were found to be the two most important sources of the awareness for the respondent farmers. In the study area, the climatic risks were reported as the most severe risks faced by the farmers. The results also revealed the existence of negative perceptions of the farmers about crop insurance i.e. farmers perceived crop insurance as a kind of tax and they believed premium was so high that it was out of range of poor farmers and only large scale farmers could afford it. Results obtained by applying Probit model revealed that ＂education＂ and ＂previously availed agricultural credit＂ were the two most important factors which affected the awareness of the farmers regarding crop insurance.

Is the “One Province One Rate” premium policy reasonable for Chinese crop insurance? The case in Jilin Province

Crop insurance in China is currently adopting the premium pricing strategy of "One Province One Rate", which appears to be in line with the systematic risk characteristics within crop insurance. This research aims to investigate the theoretical rationalization of this pricing strategy and its implications using the spatial lag model and the county-level data from the 45 corn plant counties of Jilin Province, China. Results corroborate that:(1) the spatial spillover effect of the corn yield risk is significant in Jilin but decreases rapidly when the risk unit includes more than eight counties; and(2) separating Jilin Province into eight risk zones for corn insurance will significantly reduce the high cross-subsidy phenomenon arising from the "One Province One Rate" strategy and shall benefit poor peasants in the region as well. This paper not only proves the existence of a systematic risk of crop insurance but also reveals that the spatial correlation and systemic features of the crop yield risk do not create a solid foundation for the current pricing strategy of "One Province One Rate". These conclusions will undoubtedly provide important references and empirical evidence for the role of China’s crop insurance in poverty alleviation.

A test on adverse selection of farmers in crop insurance:Results from Inner Mongolia,China

Adverse selection is an operating risk of crop insurance. Based on survey data on crop insurance collected by questionnaires in Inner Mongolia, China, the paper uses non-parametric analysis and econometric models to estimate the relationship between conditions for crop production and farmers＇ insurance decision in order to test the existence of farmers＇ adverse selection. The results show farmers＇ adverse selection does exist, but settling a claim by negotiation and premium subsidy from governments at all levels can defuse farmers＇ adverse selection under the current system of crop insurance. Risk regionalization, heterogeneous insurance contract and product innovation may decrease adverse selection to some extent.

Incidence and in-hospital mortality of acute aortic dissection in China： analysis of China Health Insurance Research （CHIRA） Data 2011

Objective Acute aortic dissection （AAD） is a catastrophic event with high early mortality rate, but to date, no data on the incidence of AAD in China's Mainland is available. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of AAD in China and characterize the clinical profile, management and in-hospital outcomes of this vascular event. Methods We used the China Health Insurance Research Data （the CHIRA Data） 2011 which comprises all inpatient hospital records （300,886） during the period of Jan. 1st 2011 to Dec. 31 2011 of 3,335,000 randomly sampled beneficiaries （1,718,500 men and 1,616,500 women） from 25 cities and counties in different economic-geographic regions of China's Mainland. Patients with acute aortic dissection were identified according to International Classification of Disease 10m Revision （ICD-10） of I71.0, The estimated incidence of AAD was calculated using the equation： estimated incidence = 2.0 × （40% × hospital admission rate） ＋ 60% × hospital admission rate. Results The hospital admission rate was 2.0/100,000 （65/3,325,000, 95% CI： 1.2-2.8）. The estimated annual incidence of AAD was 2.8/100,000 （95% CI： 1.9-3.6） and was higher in male than in female （3.7 vs. 1.5, P 〈 0.001）. The mean age was 58.9 ± 13.4 years. During the mean hospital stay of 23 ±6 days, the overall in-hospital mortality was 13.9% （9/65）. Conclusions Our study showed relatively lower but not negligible incidence and in-hospital mortality of AAD in the mainland of China. The mean age of patients with AAD in Chinese was younger than that reported by researches from west countries, while the male to female incidence ratio is similar to those reported by other studies.

Is the crop insurance program effective in China? Evidence from farmers analysis in five provinces

This paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Chinese crop insurance program in terms of farmers＇ utility and welfare. A simulation model based on the power utility function was first developed to evaluate the effectiveness of crop insurance. Then, the Monte Carlo approach was used to generate the datasets of area, price, yield, cost, and income based on the characteristics of representative farmers, which were clustered and calibrated using the farm-level data of 574 individual farmers from five Chinese provinces. Finally, the effectiveness of Chinese crop insurance was evaluated by comparing the certainty equivalence（CE） of farmers＇ utility/welfare under alternative crop insurance scenarios. Government subsidy is a necessary premise for implementing the crop insurance program. The government should subsidize more than 50% of the crop insurance premium to motivate more farmers to participate in the program. The findings also show that the current crop insurance program in China has increased the farmers＇ welfare but still need to be improved to achieve the Pareto improvement and to make full use of the financial fund of the government. This paper is believed to not only extend academic research but also has significant implications for policymakers, especially in the context of rapid development of Chinese crop insurance with much issues such as rate, subsidy and coverage level needed to be improved.