Soil erosion susceptibility mapping of Hangu Region,Kohat Plateau of Pakistan using GIS and RS-based models

Soil erosion is a crucial geo-environmental hazard worldwide that affects water quality and agriculture,decreases reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation,and increases the danger of flooding and landslides.Thus,this study uses geospatial modeling to produce soil erosion susceptibility maps(SESM)for the Hangu region,Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KPK),Pakistan.The Hangu region,located in the Kohat Plateau of KPK,Pakistan,is particularly susceptible to soil erosion due to its unique geomorphological and climatic characteristics.Moreover,the Hangu region is characterized by a combination of steep slopes,variable rainfall patterns,diverse land use,and distinct soil types,all of which contribute to the complexity and severity of soil erosion processes.These factors necessitate a detailed and region-specific study to develop effective soil conservation strategies.In this research,we detected and mapped 1013 soil erosion points and prepared 12 predisposing factors(elevation,aspect,slope,Normalized Differentiate Vegetation Index(NDVI),drainage network,curvature,Land Use Land Cover(LULC),rainfall,lithology,contour,soil texture,and road network)of soil erosion using GIS platform.Additionally,GIS-based statistical models like the weight of evidence(WOE)and frequency ratio(FR)were applied to produce the SESM for the study area.The SESM was reclassified into four classes,i.e.,low,medium,high,and very high zone.The results of WOE for SESM show that 16.39%,33.02%,29.27%,and 21.30%of areas are covered by low,medium,high,and very high zones,respectively.In contrast,the FR results revealed that 16.50%,24.33%,35.55%,and 23.59%of the areas are occupied by low,medium,high,and very high classes.Furthermore,the reliability of applied models was evaluated using the Area Under Curve(AUC)technique.The validation results utilizing the area under curve showed that the success rate curve(SRC)and predicted rate curve(PRC)for WOE are 82%and 86%,respectively,while SRC and PRC for FR are 85%and 96%,respectively.The validation results revealed that the FR model performance is better and more reliable than the WOE.

Developing and validating a predictive model of delivering large-forgestational-age infants among women with gestational diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND The birth of large-for-gestational-age(LGA)infants is associated with many shortterm adverse pregnancy outcomes.It has been observed that the proportion of LGA infants born to pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus(GDM)is significantly higher than that born to healthy pregnant women.However,traditional methods for the diagnosis of LGA have limitations.Therefore,this study aims to establish a predictive model that can effectively identify women with GDM who are at risk of delivering LGA infants.AIM To develop and validate a nomogram prediction model of delivering LGA infants among pregnant women with GDM,and provide strategies for the effective prevention and timely intervention of LGA.METHODS The multivariable prediction model was developed by carrying out the following steps.First,the variables that were associated with LGA risk in pregnant women with GDM were screened by univariate analyses,for which the P value was<0.10.Subsequently,Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression was fit using ten cross-validations,and the optimal combination factors were se-lected by choosing lambda 1se as the criterion.The final predictors were deter-mined by multiple backward stepwise logistic regression analysis,in which only the independent variables were associated with LGA risk,with a P value<0.05.Finally,a risk prediction model was established and subsequently evaluated by using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve,calibration curve and decision curve analyses.RESULTS After using a multistep screening method,we establish a predictive model.Several risk factors for delivering an LGA infant were identified(P<0.01),including weight gain during pregnancy,parity,triglyceride-glucose index,free tetraiodothyronine level,abdominal circumference,alanine transaminase-aspartate aminotransferase ratio and weight at 24 gestational weeks.The nomogram’s prediction ability was supported by the area under the curve(0.703,0.709,and 0.699 for the training cohort,validation cohort,and test cohort,respectively).The calibration curves of the three cohorts displayed good agreement.The decision curve showed that the use of the 10%-60%threshold for identifying pregnant women with GDM who are at risk of delivering an LGA infant would result in a positive net benefit.CONCLUSION Our nomogram incorporated easily accessible risk factors,facilitating individualized prediction of pregnant women with GDM who are likely to deliver an LGA infant.

Improving model performance in mapping cropland soil organic matter using time-series remote sensing data

Faced with increasing global soil degradation,spatially explicit data on cropland soil organic matter(SOM)provides crucial data for soil carbon pool accounting,cropland quality assessment and the formulation of effective management policies.As a spatial information prediction technique,digital soil mapping(DSM)has been widely used to spatially map soil information at different scales.However,the accuracy of digital SOM maps for cropland is typically lower than for other land cover types due to the inherent difficulty in precisely quantifying human disturbance.To overcome this limitation,this study systematically assessed a framework of“information extractionfeature selection-model averaging”for improving model performance in mapping cropland SOM using 462 cropland soil samples collected in Guangzhou,China in 2021.The results showed that using the framework of dynamic information extraction,feature selection and model averaging could efficiently improve the accuracy of the final predictions(R^(2):0.48 to 0.53)without having obviously negative impacts on uncertainty.Quantifying the dynamic information of the environment was an efficient way to generate covariates that are linearly and nonlinearly related to SOM,which improved the R^(2)of random forest from 0.44 to 0.48 and the R^(2)of extreme gradient boosting from 0.37to 0.43.Forward recursive feature selection(FRFS)is recommended when there are relatively few environmental covariates(<200),whereas Boruta is recommended when there are many environmental covariates(>500).The Granger-Ramanathan model averaging approach could improve the prediction accuracy and average uncertainty.When the structures of initial prediction models are similar,increasing in the number of averaging models did not have significantly positive effects on the final predictions.Given the advantages of these selected strategies over information extraction,feature selection and model averaging have a great potential for high-accuracy soil mapping at any scales,so this approach can provide more reliable references for soil conservation policy-making.

Effect of the sloping seabed on 3D soil-spudcan interaction using a material point-finite element(MPM-FEM)model

The sloping seabed affects the bearing capacity and failure mechanism of soil,which may compromise the stability and safety of offshore structures such as jack-up platforms.This paper employs a coupled model combining the material point method and finite element method(MPM-FEM)to analyze the impact of sloping seabeds on the three-dimensional soil-spudcan interaction.The MPM-FEM model implements the B¯approach to solve the challenge of volumetric locking due to the incompressibility constraints imposed by yield criterion.It is validated against the centrifuge results.The effects of sloping seabeds on penetration resistance,soil flow pattern,lateral response,stress distribution,and failure mechanism are discussed.The soil mainly undergoes overall failure when the ratio of penetration depth to spudcan diameter(i.e.D P/D)is between 0 and 0.25.As the slope angle increases,the soil on the side of lower slope is expelled further,resulting in an asymmetric stress distribution and a larger horizontal sliding force of soil.When D P/D increases to 0.75,the soil transitions to localized plastic flow failure,and the range of soil flow affected by the spudcan penetration decreases.The results show that,when the slope angle increases,the lateral displacement and stress distribution on the lower slope of a sloping seabed is significantly larger than that of a horizontal seabed,impacting the spudcan and surrounding soil behavior.The study suggests that the seabed slope significantly affects the range of soil flow and failure at shallow penetration,indicating that the slope angle should be taken into account in the design and installation of offshore jack-up rigs,particularly in areas with sloping seabeds.

Three-dimensional Modeling of Ore-forming Elements and Mineralization Prognosis for the Yechangping Mo Deposit,Henan Province,China

Three-dimensional geochemical modeling of ore-forming elements is crucial for predicting deep mineralization.This approach provides key information for the quantitative prediction of deep mineral localization,three-dimensional fine interpolation,analysis of spatial distribution patterns,and extraction of quantitative mineral-seeking markers.The Yechangping molybdenum(Mo)deposit is a significant and extensive porphyry-skarn deposit in the East Qinling-Dabie Mo polymetallic metallogenic belt at the southern margin of the North China Block.Abundant borehole data on oreforming elements underpin deep geochemical predictions.The methodology includes the following steps:(1)Threedimensional geological modeling of the deposit was established.(2)Correlation,cluster,and factor analyses post delineation of mineralization stages and determination of mineral generation sequence to identify(Cu,Pb,Zn,Ag)and(Mo,W,mfe)assemblages.(3)A three-dimensional geochemical block model was constructed for Mo,W,mfe,Cu,Zn,Pb,and Ag using the ordinary kriging method,and the variational function was developed.(4)Spatial distribution and enrichment characteristics analysis of ore-forming elements are performed to extract geological information,employing the variogram and w(Cu+Pb+Zn+Ag)/w(Mo+W)as predictive indicators.(5)Identifying the western,northwestern,and southwestern areas of the mine with limited mineralization potential,contrasted by the northeastern and southeastern areas favorable for mineral exploration.

Problem-solving model guided by stimulus-organism-response theory:State of mind and coping styles of depressed mothers after cesarean delivery

BACKGROUND The use of a problem-solving model guided by stimulus-organism-response(SOR)theory for women with postpartum depression after cesarean delivery may inform nursing interventions for women with postpartum depression.AIM To explore the state of mind and coping style of women with depression after cesarean delivery guided by SOR theory.METHODS Eighty postpartum depressed women with cesarean delivery admitted to the hospital between January 2022 and October 2023 were selected and divided into two groups of 40 cases each,according to the random number table method.In the control group,the observation group adopted the problem-solving nursing model under SOR theory.The two groups were consecutively intervened for 12 weeks,and the state of mind,coping styles,and degree of post-partum depression were analyzed at the end of the intervention.RESULTS The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and Hamilton Depression Scale-24-item scores of the observation group were lower than in the control group after care,and the level of improvement in the state of mind was higher than that of the control group(P<0.05).The level of coping with illness in the observation group after care(26.48±3.35)was higher than that in the control group(21.73±3.20),and the level of avoidance(12.04±2.68)and submission(8.14±1.15)was lower than that in the control group(15.75±2.69 and 9.95±1.20),with significant differences(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Adopting the problem-solving nursing model using SOR theory for postpartum depressed mothers after cesarean delivery reduced maternal depression,improved their state of mind,and coping level with illness.

Comparative Study of Probabilistic and Least-Squares Methods for Developing Predictive Models

This article explores the comparison between the probability method and the least squares method in the design of linear predictive models. It points out that these two approaches have distinct theoretical foundations and can lead to varied or similar results in terms of precision and performance under certain assumptions. The article underlines the importance of comparing these two approaches to choose the one best suited to the context, available data and modeling objectives.

Contribution to the Full 3D Finite Element Modelling of a Hybrid Stepping Motor with and without Current in the Coils

The paper presents our contribution to the full 3D finite element modelling of a hybrid stepping motor using COMSOL Multiphysics software. This type of four-phase motor has a permanent magnet interposed between the two identical and coaxial half stators. The calculation of the field with or without current in the windings (respectively with or without permanent magnet) is done using a mixed formulation with strong coupling. In addition, the local high saturation of the ferromagnetic material and the radial and axial components of the magnetic flux are taken into account. The results obtained make it possible to clearly observe, as a function of the intensity of the bus current or the remanent induction, the saturation zones, the lines, the orientations and the magnetic flux densities. 3D finite element modelling provide more accurate numerical data on the magnetic field through multiphysics analysis. This analysis considers the actual operating conditions and leads to the design of an optimized machine structure, with or without current in the windings and/or permanent magnet.

Numerical three-dimensional modeling of earthen dam piping failure

A physically-based numerical three-dimensional earthen dam piping failure model is developed for homogeneous and zoned soil dams.This model is an erosion model,coupled with force/moment equilibrium analyses.Orifice flow and two-dimensional(2D)shallow water equations(SWE)are solved to simulate dam break flows at different breaching stages.Erosion rates of different soils with different construction compaction efforts are calculated using corresponding erosion formulae.The dam's real shape,soil properties,and surrounding area are programmed.Large outer 2D-SWE grids are used to control upstream and downstream hydraulic conditions and control the boundary conditions of orifice flow,and inner 2D-SWE flow is used to scour soil and perform force/moment equilibrium analyses.This model is validated using the European Commission IMPACT(Investigation of Extreme Flood Processes and Uncertainty)Test#5 in Norway,Teton Dam failure in Idaho,USA,and Quail Creek Dike failure in Utah,USA.All calculated peak outflows are within 10%errors of observed values.Simulation results show that,for a V-shaped dam like Teton Dam,a piping breach location at the abutment tends to result in a smaller peak breach outflow than the piping breach location at the dam's center;and if Teton Dam had broken from its center for internal erosion,a peak outflow of 117851 m'/s,which is 81%larger than the peak outflow of 65120 m3/s released from its right abutment,would have been released from Teton Dam.A lower piping inlet elevation tends to cause a faster/earlier piping breach than a higher piping inlet elevation.

采用STAMP-24Model的多组织事故分析

安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。

基于改进24Model-ISM-SNA建筑工人不安全行为关联路径研究

建筑施工现场环境复杂,为有效控制不安全行为发生,基于行为安全“2-4”模型对360份具有代表性的建筑安全事故调查报告进行分析,提取出22个不安全行为的主要影响因素。利用灰色关联分析方法(GRA)改进的集成ISM-SNA模型,将不安全行为风险因素划分为表层、过渡层与深层,然后对风险因素进行可视化分析、中心度分析及凝聚子群分析,揭示了各致因因素间的关联关系和传导路径。结果表明,建筑工人不安全行为影响因素可划分成7级3阶的多级递阶结构,安全意识、现场监管、外部环境是建筑工人不安全行为的关键影响因素,同时现场监管和隐患排查到位能有效降低不安全行为的发生。

基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

Simulating traumatic brain injury in vitro:developing high throughput models to test biomaterial based therapies

Traumatic brain injuries are serious clinical incidents associated with some of the poorest outcomes in neurological practice.Coupled with the limited regenerative capacity of the brain,this has significant implications for patients,carers,and healthcare systems,and the requirement for life-long care in some cases.Clinical treatment currently focuses on limiting the initial neural damage with longterm care/support from multidisciplinary teams.Therapies targeting neuroprotection and neural regeneration are not currently available but are the focus of intensive research.Biomaterial-based interventions are gaining popularity for a range of applications including biomolecule and drug delive ry,and to function as cellular scaffolds.Experimental investigations into the development of such novel therapeutics for traumatic brain injury will be critically underpinned by the availability of appropriate high thro ughput,facile,ethically viable,and pathomimetic biological model systems.This represents a significant challenge for researchers given the pathological complexity of traumatic brain injury.Specifically,there is a concerted post-injury response mounted by multiple neural cell types which includes microglial activation and astroglial scarring with the expression of a range of growth inhibito ry molecules and cytokines in the lesion environment.Here,we review common models used for the study of traumatic brain injury(ranging from live animal models to in vitro systems),focusing on penetrating traumatic brain injury models.We discuss their relative advantages and drawbacks for the developmental testing of biomaterial-based therapies.

The impact of genotyping strategies and statistical models on accuracy of genomic prediction for survival in pigs

Background:Survival from birth to slaughter is an important economic trait in commercial pig productions.Increasing survival can improve both economic efficiency and animal welfare.The aim of this study is to explore the impact of genotyping strategies and statistical models on the accuracy of genomic prediction for survival in pigs during the total growing period from birth to slaughter.Results:We simulated pig populations with different direct and maternal heritabilities and used a linear mixed model,a logit model,and a probit model to predict genomic breeding values of pig survival based on data of individual survival records with binary outcomes(0,1).The results show that in the case of only alive animals having genotype data,unbiased genomic predictions can be achieved when using variances estimated from pedigreebased model.Models using genomic information achieved up to 59.2%higher accuracy of estimated breeding value compared to pedigree-based model,dependent on genotyping scenarios.The scenario of genotyping all individuals,both dead and alive individuals,obtained the highest accuracy.When an equal number of individuals(80%)were genotyped,random sample of individuals with genotypes achieved higher accuracy than only alive individuals with genotypes.The linear model,logit model and probit model achieved similar accuracy.Conclusions:Our conclusion is that genomic prediction of pig survival is feasible in the situation that only alive pigs have genotypes,but genomic information of dead individuals can increase accuracy of genomic prediction by 2.06%to 6.04%.

Finite Element Simulation of Radial Tire Building and Shaping Processes Using an Elasto-Viscoplastic Model

The comprehensive tire building and shaping processes are investigated through the finite element method(FEM)in this article.The mechanical properties of the uncured rubber from different tire components are investigated through cyclic loading-unloading experiments under different strain rates.Based on the experiments,an elastoviscoplastic constitutive model is adopted to describe themechanical behaviors of the uncured rubber.The distinct mechanical properties,including the stress level,hysteresis and residual strain,of the uncured rubber can all be well characterized.The whole tire building process(including component winding,rubber bladder inflation,component stitching and carcass band folding-back)and the shaping process are simulated using this constitutive model.The simulated green tire profile is in good agreement with the actual profile obtained through 3D scanning.The deformation and stress of the rubber components and the cord reinforcements during production can be obtained fromthe FE simulation,which is helpful for judging the rationality of the tire construction design.Finally,the influence of the parameter“drum width”is investigated,and the simulated result is found to be consistent with the experimental observations,which verifies the effectiveness of the simulation.The established simulation strategy provides some guiding significance for the improvement of tire design parameters and the elimination of tire production defects.

Developing a GIS Audit Framework in the Context of Information Technology though a Reductive Model Approach

A GIS audit framework is necessary considering the diverse nature of GIS with regard to components, applications and industry. In practice, checklists are generated during the audit process based on specific objectives. There is no standardized list of items that can be used as a reference. The purpose of this study was to develop a GIS audit framework as a foundation for GIS audits. The framework provides that comprehensive approach to various GIS aspects during the audit process. The design builds on a developed conceptual framework where most significant categories of GIS audit parameters namely data quality, software utilization, GIS competency and procedures (work flows) were identified. The study adopted a reductive model approach to simplify the complexity associated with each category of GIS audit parameter. The resultant audit elements for each category are organized in a matrix that forms an integral part of the framework. The columns comprise audit goal, audit questions and audit subjects as indicators which are qualitatively measured. The rows comprise the parameters (data quality, software utilization, personnel competency and procedure (workflows)). To use the framework, an auditor only needs to create an audit checklist that consists of particular parameters and indicators from the framework depending on audit objective. As part of an on-going research, the next step will involve validating the framework through a mock testing process.

耦合优化蚁群算法与P-Median model的选址模型设计

为节省城建部门对于公共体育设施的投入成本以及提高城市人民生活质量,以运动场所优化选址为例,提出一种新型设施选址模型。该模型主要基于P-Median model(最小化阻抗模型)根据需求点数量从全部候选设施选址中选择设施空间位置,让用户达到离自己最近设施距离成本总和最小的目的,对选址的基本原则和实际情况提出要求,构造目标函数用于优化后蚁群算法求解进行选址工作。优化蚁群算法实现基于Python语言模块,通过改进蚁群原始信息素,提升原有算法的收敛速度,求出目标函数最优解,可以很好地模拟对于运动场所的选址。用二者耦合进行优势互补所设计的选址模型来搜寻研究区蚁群信息素浓度残留最大的栅格像元,从而确定未被已有设施点服务半径覆盖的最佳设施点建立位置。实验结果表明,该新型选址模型相较于最小化阻抗模型与最大化覆盖模型,新增优化设施点使整体服务半径覆盖率分别高出10.42%和6.95%,适合求解较为精确且小规模空间下的选址问题。

Anisotropic time-dependent behaviors of shale under direct shearing and associated empirical creep models

Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.

Mshpy23:a user-friendly,parameterized model of magnetosheath conditions

Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.

Development and validation of a prediction model for early screening of people at high risk for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.