The Unprecedented Extreme Anticyclonic Anomaly over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and Its Climatic Impacts

This study investigates the evolution of an extreme anomalous anticyclone(AA)event over Northeast Asia,which was one of the dominant circulation systems responsible for the catastrophic extreme precipitation event in July 2021 in Henan,and further explores the significant impact of this AA on surface temperatures beneath it.The results indicate that this AA event over Northeast Asia was unprecedented in terms of intensity and duration.The AA was very persistent and extremely strong for 10 consecutive days from 13 to 22 July 2021.This long-lived and unprecedented AA led to the persistence of warmer surface temperatures beyond the temporal span of the pronounced 500-hPa anticyclonic signature as the surface air temperatures over land in Northeast Asia remained extremely warm through 29 July 2021.Moreover,the sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan/East Sea were extremely high for 30 consecutive days from 13 July to 11 August 2021,persisting well after the weakening or departure of this AA.These results emphasize the extreme nature of this AA over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and its role in multiple extreme climate events,even over remote regions.Furthermore,possible reasons for this long-lasting AA are explored,and it is suggested to be a byproduct of a teleconnection pattern over extratropical Eurasia during the first half of its life cycle,and of the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern during the latter half.

Subseasonal Prediction of Early-summer Northeast Asian Cut-off Lows by BCC-CSM2-HR and GloSea5

Northeast Asian cut-off lows are crucial cyclonic systems that can bring temperature and precipitation extremes over large areas.Skillful subseasonal forecasting of Northeast Asian cut-off lows is of great importance.Using two dynamical forecasting systems,one from the Beijing Climate Center(BCC-CSM2-HR)and the other from the Met Office(GloSea5),this study assesses simulation ability and subseasonal prediction skill for early-summer Northeast Asian cut-off lows.Both models are shown to have good ability in representing the spatial structure of cut-off lows,but they underestimate the intensity.The skillful prediction time scales for cut-off low intensity are about 10.2 days for BCC-CSM2-HR and 11.4 days for GloSea5 in advance.Further examination shows that both models can essentially capture the initial Rossby wave train,rapid growth and decay processes responsible for the evolution of cut-off lows,but the models show weaker amplitudes for the three-stage processes.The underestimated simulated strength of both the Eurasian midlatitude and East Asian subtropical jets may lead to the weaker local eddy-mean flow interaction responsible for the cut-off low evolution.

A Decadal Shift of Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia around the Mid-1990s

This study identifies a decadal shift of summer surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia,including southeastern parts of Russia,Mongolia and northern China,around the mid-1990s.The results suggest that the SAT over the Northeast Asia experienced a significant warming after 1994 relative to that before 1993.This decadal shift also extends to northern China,and leads to a warmer summer over Northeast China and North China after the mid-1990s.The decadal warming over Northeast Asia is found to concur with the enhancement of South China rainfall around the mid-1990s.On the one hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift only in summer,but not in other seasons.On the other hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift not only in the summer seasonal mean,but also in each month of summer （June,July and August）.Furthermore,the decadal warming is found to result from an anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia,which can be interpreted as the response to the increased precipitation over South China,according to previous numerical results.Thus,we conclude that the warming shift of summer Northeast Asian SAT around the mid-1990s was a remote response to the increased precipitation over South China.

Abrupt Summer Warming and Changes in Temperature Extremes over Northeast Asia Since the Mid-1990s: Drivers and Physical Processes

This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s. Accompanying this abrupt surface wanning, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature （Tmax）, daily minimum temperature （Train）, annual hottest day temperature （TXx）, and annual warmest night temperature （TNx） were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days （SU） and tropical nights （TR）. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature （SST）/sea ice extent （SIE）, anthropogenic greenhouse gas （GHG） concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol （AA） forcing, relative to the period 1964- 93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes, although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA （through aerosol- radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions）, mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere-land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply that the abrupt summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s will probably sustain in the next few decades as GHG concentrations continue to increase and AA precursor emissions over both North America and Europe continue to decrease.

Variation in Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia and Its Associated Circulation Anomalies

This study investigates the interannual variation of summer surface air temperature over Northeast Asia（NEA） and its associated circulation anomalies.Two leading modes for the temperature variability over NEA are obtained by EOF analysis.The first EOF mode is characterized by a homogeneous temperature anomaly over NEA and therefore is called the NEA mode.This anomaly extends from southeast of Lake Baikal to Japan,with a central area in Northeast China.The second EOF mode is characterized by a seesaw pattern,showing a contrasting distribution between East Asia（specifically including the Changbai Mountains in Northeast China,Korea,and Japan） and north of this region.This mode is named the East Asia（EA） mode.Both modes contribute equivalently to the temperature variability in EA.The two leading modes are associated with different circulation anomalies.A warm NEA mode is associated with a positive geopotential height anomaly over NEA and thus a weakened upper-tropospheric westerly jet.On the other hand,a warm EA mode is related to a positive height anomaly over EA and a northward displaced jet.In addition,the NEA mode tends to be related to the Eurasian teleconnection pattern,while the EA mode is associated with the East Asia-Pacific/PacificJapan pattern.

Circulation anomalies in the mid–high latitudes responsible for the extremely hot summer of 2018 over northeast Asia

This study investigated the contributions of mid–high-latitude circulation anomalies to the extremely hot summer(July and August;JA)of 2018 over Northeast Asia(NEA).The JA-mean surface air temperature in 2018 was 1.2°C higher than that of the 1979–2018 climatology,with the amplitude of such an anomaly almost doubling the interannual standard deviation,making 2018 the hottest year during the analysis period 1979–2018.The abnormal warming over NEA was caused by a local positive geopotential height anomaly reaching strongest intensity in JA 2018.Further investigation suggested that the upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over northern Europe and the Caspian Sea were crucial to forming this NEA circulation anomaly through initiating downstream wave trains.Particularly,the geopotential heights over these two regions were concurrently at their highest in JA 2018,and therefore jointly contributed to the profound circulation anomaly over NEA and the hottest summer on record.Due to these two teleconnection patterns,the temperature anomalies in NEA are closely related to those in both northern Europe and the Caspian Sea,where the similarly extreme warming also happened in 2018.

Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Carbon Stocks Over the Transboundary Tumen River Basin in Northeast Asia

Understanding the effects of land cover changes on ecosystem carbon stocks is essential for ecosystem management and envi- ronmental protection, particularly in the transboundary region that has undergone marked changes. This study aimed to examine the impacts of land cover changes on ecosystem carbon stocks in the transboundary Tureen River Basin （TTRB）. We extracted the spatial information from Landsat Thematic Imager （TM） and Operational Land Imager （OLI） images for the years 1990 and 2015 and obtained convincing estimates of terrestrial biomass and soil carbon stocks with the INVEST model. The results showed that forestland, cropland and built-up land increased by 57.5, 429.7 and 128.9 km2, respectively, while grassland, wetland and barren land declined by 24.9, 548.0 and 43.0 km2, respectively in the TTRB from 1990 to 2015. The total carbon stocks encompassing aboveground, belowground, soil and litter layer carbon storage pools have declined from 831.48 Tg C in 1990 to 831.42 Tg C in 2015 due to land cover changes. In detail, the carbon stocks de- creased by 3.13 Tg C and 0.44 Tg C in Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea （North Korea） and Russia, respectively, while increased by 3.51 Tg C in China. Furthermore, economic development, and national policy accounted for most land cover changes in the TTRB. Our results imply that effective wetland and forestland protection policies among China, North Korea, and Russia are much needed for protecting the natural resources, promoting local ecosystem services and regional sustainable development in the transnational area.

Development of electric power cooperation in Northeast Asia

The development of interstate electric ties ISETs and grids(ISGs) is a global process; recently, countries of Northeast Asia(NEA) that were previously very poorly connected have started to study the possibility of constructing ISETs and ISGs. This paper describes the current state of the interstate transmissions in the NEA region, considering the prospective projects of ISETs in NEA. The results of the system optimization study on prospective NEA ISGs are provided. The proposals on the development of electric power cooperation in NEA are formulated.

Formation Mechanism for the Anomalous Anticyclonic Circulation over Northeast Asia and the Japan Sea in Boreal Winter 1997/98 and the Spring of 1998

A robust anomalous anticyclonic circulation (AAC) was observed over Northeast Asia and the Japan Sea in boreal win-ter 1997/98 and over the Japan Sea in spring 1998. The formation mechanism is investigated. On the background of the vertically sheared winter monsoonal flow, anomalous rainfall in the tropical Indo-Western Pacific warm pool excited a wave train towards East Asia in the upper troposphere during boreal winter of 1997/98. The AAC over Northeast Asia and the Japan Sea is part of the wave train of equivalent barotropic structure. The AAC over the Japan Sea persisted from winter to spring and even intensified in spring 1998. The diagnostic calculations show that the vorticity and temperature fluxes by synoptic eddies are an important mechanism for the AAC over the Japan Sea in spring 1998.

ECONOMIC EXCHANGES AND SECTORAL AND INTER CITY COOPERATION IN NORTHEAST ASIA

Northeast Asia with China, Japan and South Korea as the main components has drawn more and more attention worldwide. Many scholars have researched on the prospect of some alternatives of regional economic integration in Northeast Asia and/or Yellow Sea Rim as its core area. In this paper the authors start with an introduction of the major arguments embracing Yellow Sea Rim regionalism, and attempt to identify the dynamics challenging the proposed approaches of sub regionalism of Northeast Asia. The paper firstly gives a brief review on the update development of bilateral economic exchanges, mainly Sino Japanese and Sino South Korean trades and direct investments with related contemporary issues. When the changing pattern of economic interactions is analyzed, special concerns are given to the possibility to realize the supposed potential of regional economic cooperation mainly based on economic complementarity among the related regions of China, North Korea, South Korea, and Japan. The authors then made their major efforts on putting forward possible approaches of multilateral cooperation of three countries in the near future, that is, deepened cooperation in selected sectors of industry and transportation and coordinated development among major cities. The authors stress that the development of sub regional sectoral cooperation and the formation of interactive network of city regions via social and economic interactions at local level are significant to the future regional integrated development in Northeast Asia.

Seasonal changes in TC and WSOC and their ^13C isotope ratios in Northeast Asian aerosols： land surface–biosphere–atmosphere interactions

In order to understand the relative importance of anthropogenic and biological sources of carbonaceous aerosols in Northeast Asia,we measured total carbon(TC)and water-soluble organic carbon(WSOC)and their stable carbon isotope ratios(d^(13)C)in total suspended particulates collected from Sapporo,northern Japan(43.07°N,141.36°E)over a 1-year period(during 2 September 2009and 5 October 2010).Temporal variations of TC showed a gradual decrease from mid-autumn to winter followed by a gradual increase to growing season with a peak in early summer.Both d^(13)C_(TC)and d^(13)C_(WSOC)showed very similar temporal trends with a gradual enrichment of^(13)C from mid-autumn to winter followed by a depletion in the^(13)C to early summer and thereafter it remained stable,except for few cases.Based on the results obtained together with the air mass trajectories,we found that biogenic emissions including biological particles(e.g.,pollen)and secondary organic aerosol formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds are the important sources of carbonaceous aerosols in spring/summer whereas fungal spores from soil and biomass burning and enhanced fossil fuel combustion contribute significantly in autumn/winter and in winter,respectively,in Northeast Asia.

Joint electricity and carbon market for Northeast Asia energy interconnection

Decarbonization of the electricity sector is crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change and global warming over the coming decades.The key challenges for achieving this goal are carbon emission trading and electricity sector regulation,which are also the major components of the carbon and electricity markets,respectively.In this paper,a joint electricity and carbon market model is proposed to investigate the relationships between electricity price,carbon price,and electricity generation capacity,thereby identifying pathways toward a renewable energy transition under the transactional energy interconnection framework.The proposed model is a dynamically iterative optimization model consisting of upper-level and lower-level models.The upper-level model optimizes power generation and obtains the electricity price,which drives the lower-level model to update the carbon price and electricity generation capacity.The proposed model is verified using the Northeast Asia power grid.The results show that increasing carbon price will result in increased electricity price,along with further increases in renewable energy generation capacity in the following period.This increase in renewable energy generation will reduce reliance on carbon-emitting energy sources,and hence the carbon price will decline.Moreover,the interconnection among zones in the Northeast Asia power grid will enable reasonable allocation of zonal power generation.Carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be an effective technology to reduce the carbon emissions and further realize the emission reduction targets in 2030-2050.It eases the stress of realizing the energy transition because of the less urgency to install additional renewable energy capacity.

Influences of tropical circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies on extreme heat over Northeast Asia in the midsummer of 2018

A destructive extreme heat attacked Northeast Asia(NEA)in the midsummer of 2018,characterized by the average midsummer Tmax(daily maximum air temperature at 2 m)ranking first during the study period.The current study indicates that the cyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific(WNP)was an important cause,which presents an anomaly of two standard deviations.The cyclonic anomaly over the WNP was accompanied by anomalous convection,which favored descending and anticyclonic anomalies over NEA through a local meridional cell.The anticyclonic anomaly over NEA corresponds to the northwestward extension of the WNP subtropical high and facilitated the occurrence of extreme heat.The tropical sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)presents a La Ni?a decaying episode,but the SSTA over the tropical Pacific and North Indian Ocean was weak in the summer.In contrast,the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean(SETIO)was obviously cool,which was the coolest after detrending.The SETIO cooling triggered a low-level southeasterly anomaly,which turned into a southwesterly after crossing the equator,due to the Coriolis force.The southwesterly anomaly extended eastwards and favored the cyclonic anomaly over the WNP.Meanwhile,the circulation anomalies over the SETIO and WNP were connected via a local meridional cell,with the ascending branch over the WNP.Moreover,the above mechanism also operates for the climate statistics,verifying the robust in?uence of the SETIO SSTA.Considering the consistency of the SETIO SSTA,it could be a potential predictor for the climate over the WNP and NEA.

Adjustable robust low-carbon dispatch for interconnected power systems in Northeast Asian countries

Interconnected power systems that link several countries and fully utilize their individual resources in a complementary manner are becoming increasingly important.As these systems enhanee accommodation of renewable energy,they also represent a move toward low-carbon and low-emissi on power systems.In this paper,a low-carb on dispatch model is proposed to coo rd i nate the gen erati on output betwee n several coun tries where the carb on emissi on constraint is a priority.An adjustable robust optimization approach is used to find the optimal solution under the worst-case scenario to address the uncertainties associated with renewable energy resources.A specific constraint is that the area control error for each country should be self-balanced.Furthermore,a reformation using participation factors is presented to simplify the proposed robust dispatch model.Simulation results for practical interconnected power systems in northeast Asian countries verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Climate Change Signal Analysis for Northeast Asian Surface Temperature

Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circulation model). The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO42-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SO42- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the direct cooling effect of SO42- played a less important role (0%-7%) than the CO2 effect. The prediction of surface temperature change was estimated from the second CO2+SO42- scenario run of ECHAM4/OPYC3 which has the least error in the simulation of the present-day temperature field near the Korean Peninsula. The result shows that the area-mean surface temperature near the Korean Peninsula will increase by about 1.1° by the 2040s relative to the 1990s.

Regional Research Capacity -Building inSustainability Science:Facts, Gaps, and Futures in Northeast Asia

Evidence shows that some conceptual ideas relevant to both local and global sustainability have been adopted in some official documents in northeast Asian nations, particularly China, South Korea, and Japan. This seems to be a very positive signal for the future development of sustainability science in this region. However,studyes show that there are still some major gaps there. One is the problem of how to build up the regional research capacity of sustainability science among northeast Asian research institutes across different disciplines as well as different political systems. Another is how to shift the conceptual frameworks of sustainability science into the operational policy frameworks. There are four major obstacles to the enhancement of regional research capacity-building in sustainability science. In order to build up the regional research capacity in sustainability science and to realize both local and global goals of the sustainable development in northeast Asia, this paper proposes some

Preliminary research on problems of northeastChina's participation in the northeast Asianeconomic cooperation

According to various factors influencing the economic openness, this paper probestentatively into the way Northeast China complies with and participates in the Northeast Asiancooperation, with perticular attention to the analysis and estimation of the advantageousgeographical condition of the extenal cooperation in Northeast China from the present situation ofdeveloping the external economy and cooperation with the adjacent countries.

Economic benefits of Northeast Asia energy interconnection:A quantitative analysis based on a computable general equilibrium model

There has been an intense discussion on the energy infrastructure cooperation in Northeast Asia.Most studies have focused on the technical feasibility of grid interconnection,deployment of renewable energy,and have ignored the quantitative analysis of social and economic benefits of these proposals.This study uses a computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the effects of energy interconnection in Northeast Asia.Key model development tasks include 1)constructing a new nesting structure,2)econometrically estimating the constant elasticities of substitution(CES)between fossil-and non-fossil-power generation bundles,3)developing a new base-case scenario,and 4)developing the policy scenario.We found that while Northeast Asia will benefit from energy interconnection development with higher GDP than in the base-case;there will be a trade-off between higher investment and lower consumption.Sector results and environmental implications in this region are also discussed.

The Impact of Chinese Economic Increase on Economy of Northeast Asia

Chinese economic total quantity has leaped to the sixth m the world because ot the tast development for nearly 30 years, and become the world economics powerful nation gradually. The Chinese economic growth has influenced tremendously on the world economic development. Being Chinese close neighbor, how has the Northeast Asia be influenced？ This paper will elaborate from the following three aspects： Chinese economic increase made China become important strength to promote the process of regional cooperation; Chinese economic increase made the pattern of Northeast Asian cooperation in economy and trade changed; competition and difference that Chinese economic increase brought to Northeast Asia. The increase of Chinese economic has positive influence on the economy of Northeast Asia, and is one of the powers causing the Northeast Asian economy to grow. At the same time, this kind of influence is mutual. In particular the economic cooperation with Japan is the key to establish the integration of the Northeast Asian economy.

Northeast Asia amid Korean Detente

Northeast Asia has all along been a place of great importance for major powers in the Far East. Because of its special geographical position, these powers have competed against each other for spheres of influence in the region since the very beginning of the 20th century. Therefore, the present detente on the Korean peninsula will inevitably affect some big powers’ interests and exert a far-reaching influence on Asia-Pacific and world security situation.