Extreme Antarctic Cold of Late Winter 2023

Extreme cold temperatures were observed in July and August 2023,coinciding with the WINFLY(winter fly-in)period of mid to late August into September 2023,meaning aircraft operations into McMurdo Station and Phoenix Airfield were adversely impacted.Specifically,with temperatures below−50℃,safe flight operation was not possible because of the risk of failing hydraulics and fuel turning to gel onboard the aircraft.The cold temperatures were measured across a broad area of the Antarctic,from East Antarctica toward the Ross Ice Shelf,and stretching across West Antarctica to the Antarctic Peninsula.A review of automatic weather station measurements and staffed station observations revealed a series of sites recording new record low temperatures.Four separate cold phases were identified,each a few days in duration and occurring from mid-July to the end of August 2023.A brief analysis of 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies shows how the mid-tropospheric atmospheric environment evolves in relation to these extreme cold temperatures.The monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies show strong negative anomalies in August.Examination of composite geopotential height anomalies during each of the four cold phases suggests various factors leading to cold temperatures,including both southerly off-content flow and calm atmospheric conditions.Understanding the atmospheric environment that leads to such extreme cold temperatures can improve prediction of such events and benefit Antarctic operations and the study of Antarctic meteorology and climatology.

Some Advances in the Application of Weathering and Cold-Formed Steel in Transmission Tower

Application of weathering and cold-formed steel in transmission lines can reduce steel consumption and environmental pollution. Some advances in the studies on the weathering and cold-formed steel in transmission tower are introduced. Firstly, corrosion-resistant tests of weathering steel samples under different simulating technical atmospheres were carried out separately for 240 hours. It shows that the corrosion degree of joint samples is higher than that of single chip samples, and the corrosion-resistant performance of weathering steel is superior to common carbon steel. The corrosion-resistance of weathering steel meets with the requirement of transmission tower. Secondly, experiments and finite element analysis for cold-formed angles and a 220kV prototype tower were completed, and the stability coeffi-cient fitting curves as well as the modification formulas of slenderness ratio for cold-formed members were determined. According to the structural characteristics of transmission towers, four sections of cold-formed angles with different sections and slenderness ratios were selected in this study. The finite element model well predicted the buckling behav-iour of the cold-formed members. Ultimate loads calculating by the fitting curve were well agreed to the experimental values, especially for the members with small slenderness ratios. Weight of the cold-formed steel tower can be reduced by more than 5 percent after considering the strength enhancement. Cost of the weathering and cold-formed steel transmission tower is nearly equivalent to that of hot-rolled steel tower with hot galvanizing.

Analysis of Cold Wave Weather Process in Dalian Area on December 29-30,2009

By using the routine weather data and the numerical value forecast products,applying the weather analysis and diagnostic analysis methods,the cold wave weather which happened in the south area of Dalian was analyzed on December 29-30,2009.The results showed that based on the temperature rise in prior period,the strong cold air accumulated in Mongolia and passed Ulan Bator,Erenhot to invade Dalian area.In the cold wave process,the circulation situations in the middle and high latitudes were the 'one ridge and one trough' pattern in Asia.The dynamic mechanisms were the rotary low-pressure trough in high altitude and the strong frontal zone,and the flow field which induced the cold wave to break out was the 'low trough rotation pattern'.After the cold air broke out,Dalian area was controlled by the strong cold advection.The cold high-pressure on the ground entered into the key zone and reached the intensity of cold wave.However,the circulation of cold wave occurrence was southerly,and the shifts of cold air and influence system were quicker.Therefore,the cold wave appeared in Dalian's south areas which included Lvshun,Dalian and Jinzhou.On this basis,the key point of cold wave weather forecast in Dalian area was summarized.

Planetary Wave Reflection and Its Impact on Tropospheric Cold Weather over Asia during January 2008

Reflection of stratospheric planetary waves and its impact on tropospheric cold weather over Asia during January 2008 were investigated by applying two dimensional Eliassen-Palm （EP） flux and three-dimensional Plumb wave activity fluxes.The planetary wave propagation can clearly be seen in the longitude-height and latitude-height sections of the Plumb wave activity flux and EP flux,respectively,when the stratospheric basic state is partially reflective.Primarily,a wave packet emanating from Baffin Island/coast of Labrador propagated eastward,equatorward and was reflected over Central Eurasia and parts of China,which in turn triggered the advection of cold wind from the northern part of the boreal forest regions and Siberia to the subtropics.The wide region of Central Eurasia and China experienced extreme cold weather during the second ten days of January 2008,whereas the extraordinary persistence of the event might have occurred due to an anomalous blocking high in the Urals-Siberia region.

Characteristics of Temperature Change in China over the Last 2000 years and Spatial Patterns of Dryness/Wetness during Cold and Warm Periods

This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50–70-yr, 100–120-yr, and 200–250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3℃ and 0.7℃, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56°± 0.42℃（100 yr）^（-1）; however, temperatures recorded in the 20 th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981–1100 and AD1201–70 are comparable to the present. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern： dry south of 25°N, wet from 25°–30°N, and dry to the north of 30°N. However, for all centennial cold periods, this spatial pattern also exhibits a meridional distribution. The increase in precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China associated with the 20 th century warming can primarily be attributed to a mega El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition, a significant association between increasing numbers of locusts and dry/cold conditions is found in eastern China. Plague intensity also generally increases in concert with wetness in northern China, while more precipitation is likely to have a negative effect in southern China.

Objective identification research on cold vortex and mid-summer rainy periods in Northeast China

Considering the differences between the Northeast China Cold Vortex （CV） and the Mid-Summer （MS） rainy period and their corresponding atmospheric circulations are comprehensively analyzed, and the objective identification methods of defining the annual beginning and ending dates of Northeast China CV and MS rainy periods are developed respectively. The annual beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period is as follows. In a period from April to August, if daily regional mean precipitation ryi is larger than yearly regional mean precipitation R （or 2R） on a certain day, the station precipitation rs is larger than the station yearly mean precipitation （r/ （or 2（r）） in at least 50% of stations in Northeast China, and this condition is satisfied in the following 2 （7） days, then this date is defined as the beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period. While the definition of the ending date of the MS rainy period shows the opposite process to its beginning date. With this objective identification method, the multi-year average （1981-2010） beginning date of the CV rainy period is May 3, the beginning date of the MS rainy period is June 27, the ending day of the CV rainy period is defined as the day before the beginning date of the MS rainy period, and the ending date of the MS rainy period is August 29. Meanwhile, corresponding anomaly analysis at a 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa wind, Omega and relative humidity fields all show that the definitions of the average beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have a certain circulation meaning. Furthermore, the daily evolution of the CV index, meridional and zonal wind index, etc. all show that these objectively defined beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have climate significance.

Molecular Mapping of QTLs for Cold Tolerance at the Budburst Period in Rice

The quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for cold tolerance at the budburst period (CTBP) was identified using a F2:3 population including 200 lines derived from a cross of indica and japonica Milyang 23/Jileng 1. A molecular linkage map of 97 SSR markers was constructed using interval mapping and covered a total length of 1 357.3 cM with an average distance of 13.99 cM, between adjacent markers in rice genome. The CTBP of F3 lines was evaluated at 5℃, and the survival seedling rate after treating under low temperature at the budburst period was used as cold tolerance index for CTBP. A continuous distribution near to normal for CTBP was observed in F3 lines, CTBP is a quantitative trait which was controlled by some genes. Three QTLs on chromosomes 2, 4 and 7 which are associated with CTBP were detected on location of RM6-RM240, RM273-RM303, RM214-RM11, respectively, which explained the range of the observed phenotypic variance from 11.5 to 20.5%. qCTBP4 detected on RM273-RM303 of chromosome 4 explained 20.5% of the observed phenotypic variance. The effect of qCTBP4’s allelic gene comes from Jileng 1., MSc; Correspondence

More than a simple egg:Underlying mechanisms of cold tolerance in avian embryos

Avian embryos,which develop within eggs,exhibit remarkable tolerance to extremely low temperatures.Despite being a common trait among all birds,the mechanisms underlying this cold tolerance in avian embryos remain largely unknown.To gain a better understanding of this phenomenon and the coping mechanisms involved,we reviewed the literature on severe cold tolerance in embryos of both wild and domestic birds.We found that embryos of different bird orders exhibit tolerance to severe cold during their development.In response to cold stress,embryos slow down their heartbeat rates and metabolism.In severe cold temperatures,embryos can suspend these processes,entering a torpid-like state of cardiac arrest.To compensate for these developmental delays,embryos extend their regular incubation periods.Depending on their embryonic age,embryos of all bird species can tolerate acute severe cold regimes;only a few tolerate chronic severe cold regimes.We also discussed various extrinsic and intrinsic factors that affect the tolerance of bird embryos to low temperatures before and after incubation.Cold tolerance appears to be a heritable trait shared by wild and domestic embryos of all bird classes,regardless of egg size or development(altricial/precocial).Driven by environmental variability,cold tolerance in avian embryos is an optimal physiological and ecological strategy to mitigate the adverse effects of cold conditions on their development in response to fluctuating environmental temperatures.

Study on Weather Forecast Indicators during Mowing Grass Periods in Inner Mongolia

Based on ground observation and remote sensing monitoring data,regions appropriate for mowing herbage in the dog days and autumn were predicted and assessed quantitatively,and regions appropriate for mowing herbage were divided into comparatively suitable,suitable and optimum areas for mowing herbage. Servicing products can be spread to agricultural and pastoral areas via short message service,broadcasting,radio and network in time,and good service effect can be obtained. However,under the effect of precision rate of medium-term prediction areas,the prediction of some rainfall areas deviates from the actual rainfall areas. After timely correction of weather prediction in 24 and 48 hours,pastoral weather forecast service in mowing herbage regions is improved obviously. Herbage mowed in the dog days is rich in nutrients,but it is rainy in the period,which brings certain difficulties to herbage mowing and airing. Therefore,herdsmen in various regions should pay more attention to local weather prediction and regulate mowing herbage periods in time,and autumn herbage can be mowed if the weather is not suitable for mowing herbage in the dog days.

Analysis of Continuous Rainy and Cold Weather in Yiwu in Early Spring of 2009

Continuous rainy and cold weather in Yiwu in early spring of 2009 was analyzed. The results showed that the continuous rainy and cold weather occurred after temperature increased in early days. It is mainly because that the high geopotential height near Ural Mountains lasted for a long time, while the geopotential height was abnormally low in the east of central Asia. Meanwhile, the Iow-prassure trough in the south of Qinghai -Tibet Plateau was very active and moved towards the east frequently, and subtropical high was strong. Compared with continuous rainy and cold weather in early 2008, during the process of this continuous rainy and cold weather in 2009, the decrease in sea surface temperature of the middle and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator was weaker; the blocking high pressure was slightly weaker, and the low pressure over Mongolia was strong; subtropical high was stronger and showed zonal distribution; south trough was slightly weaker. Compared with the previous continuous rainy and cold weather, the duration of this continuous rainy and cold weather in 2009 was not the longest, and its sunshine hours were not the least, but its temperature was higher, which might result from obvious increase of temperature in the early days. The research could provide scientific references for the prediction of continuous rainy and cold weather in future.

Variation Characteristics of Low Temperature and Rainy Weather in Guangxi during Spring Sowing Period of Recent 50 Years

[Objective] The research aimed to study the variation characteristics of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period of recent 50 years.[Method] Based on the daily average temperature data from 1961 to 2010 at 88 meteorological stations in Guangxi,yearly days and end date of low temperature and rainy weather during spring sowing period were carried out statistics.The variation characteristics of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period of recent 50 years were analyzed by using linear tendency calculation,phased analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and correlation analysis.Moreover,the influences of climate warming on days and end date of low temperature and rainy weather in spring sowing period were analyzed.[Result] The average days of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period from 1961 to 2010 was during 3.5-23.2 d.The regional distribution characteristics were that it was more in northeast and mountain zone,and less in southwest and valley.The regional distribution characteristics of end date were that it was late in northeast and mountain zone,and early in southwest and valley.The days of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period of recent 50 years presented slight decrease trend,and the end date presented slight advancing trend.The phased variation characteristics of days and end date of low temperature and rainy weather were obvious.The days of low temperature and rainy weather from the early 1980s to metaphase of 1990s was obviously more,and the end date was obviously later.After the 1990s,the days of low temperature and rainy weather was obviously less,and the end date was obviously earlier.The days of low temperature and rainy weather had periodic oscillation signals of 4,6,8,10-14 years.The end date had periodic oscillation signals of 6,12-14 years.The days and end date of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period significantly related to average temperature from middle dekad of February to first dekad of April.The climate warming made that the days of low temperature and rainy weather tended to decrease,and the end date tended to advance.[Conclusion] The research provided reference for further understanding the occurrence rule of low temperature and rainy weather,going after profits and avoiding disadvantages,reasonably arranging production,carrying out correlated research.

Effect of cold weather on carotid artery stenosis and occlusion:A retrospective observational study

Objective:To investigate the effect of cold weather on carotid artery stenosis and occlusion.Methods:We conducted a retrospective observational study,in which 145 patients with carotid artery stenosis and occlusion were enrolled[115 men and 30 women;the mean age was 61.08 years(95%CI 59.27-62.88)].Patients were divided into the low-temperature group(n=98)(≤12℃)and the non-low temperature group(n=47)(>12℃).Clinical characteristics,blood pressure,National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale(NIHSS),blood fat,and blood viscositys were compared between the two groups.Correlation between NIHSS and mean daily temperature was analyzed.Results:There was no significant difference in the systolic and diastolic blood pressure between the two groups(P>0.05).The NIHSS score was slightly higher in the non-low temperature group compared to that of the low-temperature group(U=2984,P<0.01).Glycemia,cholesterol level,prothrombin time,fibrinogen,and International Normalized Ratio did not show any significant difference(P>0.05).Correlation analysis showed a very low positive and statistically significant correlation between ambient temperature and NIHSS score(r=0.18,P=0.029).Conclusion:Cold weather does not impact blood pressure,blood cholesterol,and coagulation factors of patients with carotid artery stenosis and occlusion.The neurological deficit is more severe in the non-low ambient temperature group.A potential relationship exists between ambient temperature and the level of neurological impairment.

Causes of a Cold Wave Process Accompanied by Gale and a Drop in Temperature in Central Inner Mongolia

Based on the conventional high-and low-altitude and surface observation data,the weather analysis and diagnosis methods were applied to analyze the cold wave process of Ulanqab in January 2016 from the aspects of weather reality,circulation background,weather causes,and forecast test.The results show that strong cold air accumulated gradually near Lake Baikal and Central Siberia,affecting the city in a northwest path.During the cold wave process,the transverse trough moved southwards slowly at 500 hPa,and the ground cold high pressure was strong and stable.The cold air continued to move southwards,resulting in the strong cold wave and gale weather with a large impact range and long duration.The high-altitude jet at 300 hPa strengthened the cold wave pile,which was conducive to the outbreak of the cold wave.The intensity and location changes of the 500 hPa positive vorticity center,850 hPa cold advection region and 24-h ground pressure variation well showed the intensity of the cold wave process and the variation of the affected region.The influence of strong cold advection,ground positive pressure variation,and strong vertical wind shear were the main reasons for a strong drop in temperature and gale weather in this process.The test results of prediction reveal that the forecast value of the maximum temperature were relatively lower than the actual value,while the forecast of the minimum temperature was more accurate.The three warning signals were issued timely and accurately.The circulation pattern predicted by numerical models was more accurate in the early stage of the process,but there was an error in the late stage,and the forecast system moved slower than the actual situation.

Problems and Opportunities for Biometeorological Assessment of Conditions in Cold Season

The article is devoted to a discussion of the possibilities of biometeorological assessment of the severity of weather conditions during the cold season.The relevance of the study is ensured not only by the fact that residents of a number of states,whose total number is more than 27 million people,live in these extreme climatic conditions,but also by the need to improve biometeorological approaches to assessing the impact of these conditions on the body and health of the population.This study examined biometeorological characteristics that illustrate a measure of cold stress.These include the Siple wind-chill index;Bodman winter severity index;Arnoldi weather hardness coefficient;Mountain wind chill index;weather hardness coefficient according to I.M.Osokin.The results of a comparison of winter severity assessments based on the values of the calculated Siple and Bodman indices made it possible to establish that the Bodman index is more acceptable when assessing mildly severe winters.The most adequate for assessing the“severity”of the cold period against the background of a decrease in air temperature and an increase in wind speed is the Siple index.The need to provide the countries of the world with high-quality hydrometeorological and biometeorological forecast information is justified and relevant.In this regard,these studies are very promising.

四川盆区油菜花期低温阴雨灾损评估及风险区划

花期低温阴雨是四川盆区油菜生产的主要气象灾害之一。本研究利用四川盆区1961-2020年101个气象站的逐日气象资料,1983-2000年油菜产量资料和干旱、低温冷害、连阴雨、大风、冰雹灾情资料,筛选花期低温阴雨灾害年份,采用数理统计方法获取花期低温阴雨产量灾损率和致灾因子,通过相关性分析确定油菜花期低温阴雨致灾指标,并利用2001-2020年灾情资料进行检验;基于筛选出的低温、连阴雨关键致灾因子,采用回归分析法建立油菜花期低温阴雨灾害损失评估模型,并进行回代和预测检验,分析灾害风险区划和变化趋势。结果表明:(1)日平均气温≤7℃、过程持续天数≥1d是四川盆区油菜花期低温致灾指标,日平均气温≤7℃的负积温和≥3d过程持续降水量共同组成低温阴雨灾害的关键致灾因子;选用2001-2020年油菜花期低温冷害发生情况对指标进行检验,与实际情况相符。(2)选用1983-2000年的气象、产量、灾情数据建立四川盆区油菜花期低温阴雨灾损评估模型,模型对轻度、中度灾害损失评估等级与实际等级相同或相差1级的评估准确率在96%以上;重度、特重评估等级与实际等级相同的准确率为0,与实际等级相差1级的准确率为75%和0。选用2001-2020年油菜花期低温阴雨灾害发生情况对模型检验,与实际情况基本相符。(3)1961-2020年四川盆区油菜花期低温阴雨灾害风险偏高区域主要分布于盆区西南部、南部及东北部,以中-高风险为主;灾害风险偏低的区域集中于盆区西北部及中部,以低-次低风险为主。(4)气候变暖背景下,四川盆区油菜花期低温阴雨灾害高风险区域呈减少趋势,低风险区域呈增加趋势。综上分析,四川盆区油菜花期低温冷害指标结果可靠,低温阴雨灾损评估模型能够较好地评估灾害损失,可应用于农业气象业务服务;灾害风险区划结果可为四川油菜生产布局提供参考依据。

吉林省玉米倒伏灾害天气分型及典型过程分析

为探求造成吉林省玉米倒伏灾害的天气系统类型、特征及发生规律,利用历史灾情和玉米发育期数据、ERA5再分析资料,采用典型个例分析方法,对吉林省造成玉米倒伏灾害的天气系统进行了分析总结。结果表明:造成玉米倒伏灾害的天气系统主要有台风、东北冷涡、低空切变线及高空槽。玉米拔节—抽雄期倒伏主要受东北冷涡影响,抽雄-乳熟期主要受低空切变线、高空槽影响,乳熟-成熟期主要受北上台风影响。台风是造成吉林省玉米倒伏最为严重的天气系统,影响范围广,其移动路径对作物倒伏灾害的发生范围起决定性作用,倒伏灾害多发生在台风移动路径的西侧或北侧,地面低压系统的北侧。东北冷涡次之,倒伏主要发生在水汽、动力、热力和对流不稳定条件均最为显著的冷涡东南象限。低空切变线、高空槽影响范围小,低空切变线类倒伏发生位置取决于低空切变线或辐合线的位置。高空槽类倒伏一般发生在高空槽前,地面冷锋附近。

寒冷条件下高拱坝施工过程仿真方法研究

众多高拱坝施工面临着恶劣寒冷气候的考验。然而,现有的高拱坝施工过程仿真方法较少直接考虑气温对施工的影响,且未考虑基于气温预测成果进行动态分块,以分析寒冷条件下利用正温时段进行浇筑的特点。针对以上问题,本文提出了基于Informer的寒冷条件下高拱坝施工过程仿真方法。首先,提出基于Informer气温预测模型,实现未来气温序列的预测,在此基础上实现可施工时段分析;其次,建立考虑动态分块的寒冷条件下高拱坝施工进度仿真模型,提出更加贴近实际施工情况的分块施工仿真策略,以更好地模拟和分析不同气温条件下的施工过程;最后,以西南地区的叶巴滩高拱坝工程为例进行研究,采用Informer模型对气温进行预测,平均误差为±1.49℃,每日的可施工时长平均误差为±1.16 h。通过对比三种不同的仿真策略,发现寒冷条件下采用动态分块策略可以充分利用可浇筑时段,施工效率更高,也表明在仿真中“考虑气温”比简单降效处理更加贴近实际情况。

药隔期倒春寒对小麦根际细菌群落结构的影响

以抗倒春寒性强的小麦品种烟农19(YN)和抗倒春寒性弱的小麦品种新麦26(XM)为实验材料,于小麦幼穗分化的药隔形成期利用智能超低温培养箱进行4℃(T1)和-4℃(T2)低温胁迫处理,以15℃作为对照(CK),利用高通量测序技术对开花期小麦根际土壤细菌群落进行测定,研究药隔期倒春寒对小麦根际细菌多样性和群落结构的影响。结果表明:(1)倒春寒危害后两品种小麦根际土壤细菌的ACE指数较CK均有所降低,且对抗倒春寒性弱的品种XM影响显著(P<0.05)。(2)两品种小麦根际土壤细菌群落主要由变形菌门(53.20%~57.55%)、放线菌门(13.34%~21.69%)、拟杆菌门(10.56%~12.37%)和芽单胞菌门(6.17%~9.19%)等33个门及819个属的细菌组成,且不同程度倒春寒处理间各菌门相对丰度表现出差异性,其中放线菌门(Actinobacteria)相对丰度在YN中升高9.79%~19.11%,在XM中降低26.43%~38.47%。(3)根际土壤细菌功能预测分析显示,药隔期倒春寒提高了膜运输、氨基酸代谢、碳水化合物代谢、复制与修复功能基因在YN根际土壤中的相对丰度,降低了其在XM根际土壤中的相对丰度。综上所述,药隔期倒春寒降低了小麦根际土壤细菌群落的丰富度,改变了细菌群落结构,影响了细菌群落的膜运输、氨基酸代谢、碳水化合物代谢和复制与修复功能。

基于电量-功率的多模态映射的长预见期光伏集群功率预测

现有光伏功率预测方法的时间尺度大多短于7 d,长预见期时间尺度下建立的时序预测模型的拟合能力难以满足需求。提出一种基于电量-功率多模态映射的长预见期(8~15 d)光伏集群功率预测方法。对天气进行分型并提取粗粒度下的光伏出力特性,在此基础上对细粒度电量进行预测;基于出力特性构建约束,将预测电量还原为功率,实现长预见期下光伏功率的有效预测。将所提方法应用于甘肃某光伏集群,预测精度提升了6.58个百分点,在实现长预见期预测的同时,提高了可靠性。

高寒地区纯电动汽车电池热管理系统实用技术探究

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