Multi-Step Clustering of Smart Meters Time Series:Application to Demand Flexibility Characterization of SME Customers

Customer segmentation according to load-shape profiles using smart meter data is an increasingly important application to vital the planning and operation of energy systems and to enable citizens’participation in the energy transition.This study proposes an innovative multi-step clustering procedure to segment customers based on load-shape patterns at the daily and intra-daily time horizons.Smart meter data is split between daily and hourly normalized time series to assess monthly,weekly,daily,and hourly seasonality patterns separately.The dimensionality reduction implicit in the splitting allows a direct approach to clustering raw daily energy time series data.The intraday clustering procedure sequentially identifies representative hourly day-unit profiles for each customer and the entire population.For the first time,a step function approach is applied to reduce time series dimensionality.Customer attributes embedded in surveys are employed to build external clustering validation metrics using Cramer’s V correlation factors and to identify statistically significant determinants of load-shape in energy usage.In addition,a time series features engineering approach is used to extract 16 relevant demand flexibility indicators that characterize customers and corresponding clusters along four different axes:available Energy(E),Temporal patterns(T),Consistency(C),and Variability(V).The methodology is implemented on a real-world electricity consumption dataset of 325 Small and Medium-sized Enterprise(SME)customers,identifying 4 daily and 6 hourly easy-to-interpret,well-defined clusters.The application of the methodology includes selecting key parameters via grid search and a thorough comparison of clustering distances and methods to ensure the robustness of the results.Further research can test the scalability of the methodology to larger datasets from various customer segments(households and large commercial)and locations with different weather and socioeconomic conditions.

Demand Driven Growth in Small Open and Import Dependable Economy

Demand driven growth is rather a common approach in many countries in the short run. Growth in aggregate demand pushes production to higher level, increasing employment and income. But what is the case in small open economies, which are highly import dependable, service-oriented, and have to import most consumers＇ goods？ Research is focused on the case of small open economy （Montenegro）. Research will be based on statistical data for Montenegro, for period from 2000 to 2011. Data are processed in Eviews, using Least Square method to estimate equations and models. Research has shown that gross domestic product （GDP） growth in the short run, prior to global financial crisis, was achieved through growth in consumption and investment, which led to growth in import and growth in foreign debt, as consumption was financed significantly borrowing foreign financial resources. After the crisis, financial inflows dropped, leaving Montenegrin economy to struggle with increased debt （both public and private）, unfinished investment project to provide value added and low level of domestic production leading to even higher trade deficit. Future growth can be achieved only if it is driven by investments, as growth in consumption will more likely lead to higher trade deficit than production growth.

Effect of power supply parameters on discharge characteristics and sterilization efficiency of magnetically driven rotating gliding arc

Plasma sterilization is a new generation of high-tech sterilization method that is fast,safe,and pollution free.It is widely used in medical,food,and environmental protection fields.Home air sterilization is an emerging field of plasma application,which puts higher requirements on the miniaturization,operational stability,and operating cost of plasma device.In this study,a novel magnetically driven rotating gliding arc(MDRGA)discharge device was used to sterilize Lactobacillus fermentation.Compared with the traditional gas-driven gliding arc,this device has a simple structure and a more stable gliding arc.Simulation using COMSOL Multiphysics showed that adding permanent magnets can form a stable magnetic field,which is conducive to the formation of gliding arcs.Experiments on the discharge performance,ozone concentration,and sterilization effect were conducted using different power supply parameters.The results revealed that the MDRGA process can be divided into three stages:starting,gliding,and extinguishing.Appropriate voltage was the key factor for stable arc gliding,and both high and low voltages were not conducive to stable arc gliding and ozone production.In this experimental setup,the sterilization effect was the best at 6.6 kV.A high modulation duty ratio was beneficial for achieving stable arc gliding.However,when the duty ratio exceeded a certain value,the improvement in the sterilization effect was slow.Therefore,considering the sterilization effect and energy factors comprehensively,we chose 80%as the optimal modulation duty ratio for this experimental device.

Data-driven modeling on anisotropic mechanical behavior of brain tissue with internal pressure

Brain tissue is one of the softest parts of the human body,composed of white matter and grey matter.The mechanical behavior of the brain tissue plays an essential role in regulating brain morphology and brain function.Besides,traumatic brain injury(TBI)and various brain diseases are also greatly influenced by the brain's mechanical properties.Whether white matter or grey matter,brain tissue contains multiscale structures composed of neurons,glial cells,fibers,blood vessels,etc.,each with different mechanical properties.As such,brain tissue exhibits complex mechanical behavior,usually with strong nonlinearity,heterogeneity,and directional dependence.Building a constitutive law for multiscale brain tissue using traditional function-based approaches can be very challenging.Instead,this paper proposes a data-driven approach to establish the desired mechanical model of brain tissue.We focus on blood vessels with internal pressure embedded in a white or grey matter matrix material to demonstrate our approach.The matrix is described by an isotropic or anisotropic nonlinear elastic model.A representative unit cell(RUC)with blood vessels is built,which is used to generate the stress-strain data under different internal blood pressure and various proportional displacement loading paths.The generated stress-strain data is then used to train a mechanical law using artificial neural networks to predict the macroscopic mechanical response of brain tissue under different internal pressures.Finally,the trained material model is implemented into finite element software to predict the mechanical behavior of a whole brain under intracranial pressure and distributed body forces.Compared with a direct numerical simulation that employs a reference material model,our proposed approach greatly reduces the computational cost and improves modeling efficiency.The predictions made by our trained model demonstrate sufficient accuracy.Specifically,we find that the level of internal blood pressure can greatly influence stress distribution and determine the possible related damage behaviors.

Effects of counter-current driven by electron cyclotron waves on neoclassical tearing mode suppression

Through theoretical analysis,we construct a physical model that includes the influence of counter-external driven current opposite to the plasma current direction in the neoclassical tearing mode(NTM).The equation is used with this model to obtain the modified Rutherford equation with co-current and counter-current contributions.Consistent with the reported experimental results,numerical simulations have shown that the localized counter external current can only partially suppress NTM when it is far from the resonant magnetic surface.Under some circumstances,the Ohkawa mechanism dominated current drive(OKCD)by electron cyclotron waves can concurrently create both co-current and counter-current.In this instance,the minimal electron cyclotron wave power that suppresses a particular NTM was calculated by the Rutherford equation.The result is marginally less than when taking co-current alone into consideration.As a result,to suppress NTM using OKCD,one only needs to align the co-current with a greater OKCD peak well with the resonant magnetic surface.The effect of its lower counter-current does not need to be considered because the location of the counter-current deviates greatly from the resonant magnetic surface.

Research on the Microstructure Construction Technology of Fully Degraded Polymer Vascular Stent Based on Electric Field Driven 3D Printing

The so-called fourth-generation biodegradable vascular stent has become a research hotspot in thefield of bioengineering because of its good degradation ability and drug-loading characteristics.However,the preparationof polymer-degraded vascular stents is affected by known problem such as poor processflexibility,low formingaccuracy,large diameter wall thickness,limited complex pore structure,weak mechanical properties of radial support and high process cost.In this study,a deposition technique based on a high-voltage electric-field-driven continuous rotating jet is proposed to fabricate fully degraded polymer vascular stents.The experimental results showthat,due to the rotation of the deposition axis,the deposition direction of PCL(polycaprolactone)micro-jet isalways tangent to the surface of the deposition axis.The direction of the viscous drag force is also consistent withthe deposition direction of the jet.It is shown that by setting different rotation speeds of deposition axisωandlinear motion speeds of the nozzle V,the direction of rotation,pitch and angle of the individual printed spiralcurve can be precisely tuned.In the process of multiple spiral curves matching the deposition forming thin walltube mesh,the mesh shape and size of the thin wall tube can be accurately controlled by changing the number ofmatching spiral curves and the size of the matching position bias distance.Finally,the characteristics of a PCLtubular stent sample(with uniform-size microfibers and mesh shape),fabricated under the appropriate processparameters are described in detail.

Data-model coupling driven stress field measurements

This paper presents a method for measuring stress fields within the framework of coupled data models,aimed at determining stress fields in isotropic material structures exhibiting localized deterioration behavior without relying on constitutive equations in the deteriorated region.This approach contributes to advancing the field of intrinsic equation-free mechanics.The methodology combines measured strain fields with data-model coupling driven algorithms.The gradient and Canny operators are utilized to process the strain field data,enabling the determination of the deterioration region's location.Meanwhile,an adaptive model building method is proposed for constructing coupling driven models.To address the issue of unknown datasets during computation,a dataset updating strategy based on a differential evolutionary algorithm is introduced.The resulting optimal dataset is then used to generate stress field results.Validation against finite element method calculations demonstrates the accuracy of the proposed method in obtaining full-field stresses in specimens with local degradation behavior.

Research on Demand Response Potential of Adjustable Loads in Demand Response Scenarios

To address the issues of limited demand response data,low generalization of demand response potential evaluation,and poor demand response effect,the article proposes a demand response potential feature extraction and prediction model based on data mining and a demand response potential assessment model for adjustable loads in demand response scenarios based on subjective and objective weight analysis.Firstly,based on the demand response process and demand response behavior,obtain demand response characteristics that characterize the process and behavior.Secondly,establish a feature extraction and prediction model based on data mining,including similar day clustering,time series decomposition,redundancy processing,and data prediction.The predicted values of each demand response feature on the response day are obtained.Thirdly,the predicted data of various characteristics on the response day are used as demand response potential evaluation indicators to represent different demand response scenarios and adjustable loads,and a demand response potential evaluation model based on subjective and objective weight allocation is established to calculate the demand response potential of different adjustable loads in different demand response scenarios.Finally,the effectiveness of the method proposed in the article is verified through examples,providing a reference for load aggregators to formulate demand response schemes.

A Combination Prediction Model for Short Term Travel Demand of Urban Taxi

This study proposes a prediction model considering external weather and holiday factors to address the issue of accurately predicting urban taxi travel demand caused by complex data and numerous influencing factors.The model integrates the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise(CEEMDAN)and Convolutional Long Short Term Memory Neural Network(ConvLSTM)to predict short-term taxi travel demand.The CEEMDAN decomposition method effectively decomposes time series data into a set of modal components,capturing sequence characteristics at different time scales and frequencies.Based on the sample entropy value of components,secondary processing of more complex sequence components after decomposition is employed to reduce the cumulative prediction error of component sequences and improve prediction efficiency.On this basis,considering the correlation between the spatiotemporal trends of short-term taxi traffic,a ConvLSTM neural network model with Long Short Term Memory(LSTM)time series processing ability and Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN)spatial feature processing ability is constructed to predict the travel demand for urban taxis.The combined prediction model is tested on a taxi travel demand dataset in a certain area of Beijing.The results show that the CEEMDAN-ConvLSTM prediction model outperforms the LSTM,Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model(ARIMA),CNN,and ConvLSTM benchmark models in terms of Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error(SMAPE),Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and R2 metrics.Notably,the SMAPE metric exhibits a remarkable decline of 21.03%with the utilization of our proposed model.These results confirm that our study provides a highly accurate and valid model for taxi travel demand forecasting.

Investigation of system parameters towards safer impact based shock-to-detonation transition in a novel laser driven flyer plate prototype

Laser driven flyer plate technology offers improved safety and reliability for detonation of explosives in industrial applications ranging from mining and stone quarrying to the aerospace and defense industries.This study is based on developing a safer laser driven flyer plate prototype comprised of a laser initiator and a flyer plate subsystem that can be used with secondary explosives.System parameters were optimized to initiate the shock-to-detonation transition(SDT)of a secondary explosive based on the impact created by the flyer plate on the explosive surface.Rupture of the flyer was investigated at the mechanically weakened region located on the interface of these subsystems,where the product gases from the deflagration of the explosive provide the required energy.A bilayer energetic material was used,where the first layer consisted of a pyrotechnic component,zirconium potassium perchlorate(ZPP),for sustaining the ignition by the laser beam and the second layer consisted of an insensitive explosive,cyclotetramethylene-tetranitramine(HMX),for deflagration.A plexiglass interface was used to enfold the energetic material.The focal length of the laser beam from the diode was optimized to provide a homogeneous beam profile with maximum power at the surface of the ZPP.Closed bomb experiments were conducted in an internal volume of 10 cm^(3) for evaluation of performance.Dependency of the laser driven flyer plate system output on confinement,explosive density,and laser beam power were analyzed.Measurements using a high-speed camera resulted in a flyer velocity of 670±20 m/s that renders the prototype suitable as a laser detonator in applications,where controlled employment of explosives is critical.

Optimal dispatching strategy for residential demand response considering load participation

To facilitate the coordinated and large-scale participation of residential flexible loads in demand response(DR),a load aggregator(LA)can integrate these loads for scheduling.In this study,a residential DR optimization scheduling strategy was formulated considering the participation of flexible loads in DR.First,based on the operational characteristics of flexible loads such as electric vehicles,air conditioners,and dishwashers,their DR participation,the base to calculate the compensation price to users,was determined by considering these loads as virtual energy storage.It was quantified based on the state of virtual energy storage during each time slot.Second,flexible loads were clustered using the K-means algorithm,considering the typical operational and behavioral characteristics as the cluster centroid.Finally,the LA scheduling strategy was implemented by introducing a DR mechanism based on the directrix load.The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed DR approach can effectively reduce peak loads and fill valleys,thereby improving the load management performance.

Stochastic programming based coordinated expansion planning of generation,transmission,demand side resources,and energy storage considering the DC transmission system

With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage coordinated expansion planning model based on stochastic programming was proposed to suppress the impact of wind and solar energy fluctuations.Multiple types of system components,including demand response service entities,converter stations,DC transmission systems,cascade hydropower stations,and other traditional components,have been extensively modeled.Moreover,energy storage systems are considered to improve the accommodation level of renewable energy and alleviate the influence of intermittence.Demand-response service entities from the load side are used to reduce and move the demand during peak load periods.The uncertainties in wind,solar energy,and loads were simulated using stochastic programming.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through numerical simulations.

Demand-Responsive Transportation Vehicle Routing Optimization Based on Two-Stage Method

Demand-responsive transportation(DRT)is a flexible passenger service designed to enhance road efficiency,reduce peak-hour traffic,and boost passenger satisfaction.However,existing optimization methods for initial passenger requests fall short in addressing real-time passenger needs.Consequently,there is a need to develop realtime DRT route optimization methods that integrate both initial and real-time requests.This paper presents a twostage,multi-objective optimization model for DRT vehicle scheduling.The first stage involves an initial scheduling model aimed at minimizing vehicle configuration,and operational,and CO_(2)emission costs while ensuring passenger satisfaction.The second stage develops a real-time scheduling model to minimize additional operational costs,penalties for time window violations,and costs due to rejected passengers,thereby addressing real-time demands.Additionally,an enhanced genetic algorithm based on Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II(NSGA-II)is designed,incorporating multiple crossover points to accelerate convergence and improve solution efficiency.The proposed scheduling model is validated using a real network in Shanghai.Results indicate that realtime scheduling can serve more passengers,and improve vehicle utilization and occupancy rates,with only a minor increase in total operational costs.Compared to the traditional NSGA-II algorithm,the improved version enhances convergence speed by 31.7%and solution speed by 4.8%.The proposed model and algorithm offer both theoretical and practical guidance for real-world DRT scheduling.

Physics Guided Deep Learning-Based Model for Short-Term Origin–Destination Demand Prediction in Urban Rail Transit Systems Under Pandemic

Accurate origin–destination(OD)demand prediction is crucial for the efficient operation and management of urban rail transit(URT)systems,particularly during a pandemic.However,this task faces several limitations,including real-time availability,sparsity,and high-dimensionality issues,and the impact of the pandemic.Consequently,this study proposes a unified framework called the physics-guided adaptive graph spatial–temporal attention network(PAG-STAN)for metro OD demand prediction under pandemic conditions.Specifically,PAG-STAN introduces a real-time OD estimation module to estimate real-time complete OD demand matrices.Subsequently,a novel dynamic OD demand matrix compression module is proposed to generate dense real-time OD demand matrices.Thereafter,PAG-STAN leverages various heterogeneous data to learn the evolutionary trend of future OD ridership during the pandemic.Finally,a masked physics-guided loss function(MPG-loss function)incorporates the physical quantity information between the OD demand and inbound flow into the loss function to enhance model interpretability.PAG-STAN demonstrated favorable performance on two real-world metro OD demand datasets under the pandemic and conventional scenarios,highlighting its robustness and sensitivity for metro OD demand prediction.A series of ablation studies were conducted to verify the indispensability of each module in PAG-STAN.

Optimal Bidding Strategies of Microgrid with Demand Side Management for Economic Emission Dispatch Incorporating Uncertainty and Outage of Renewable Energy Sources

In the restructured electricity market,microgrid(MG),with the incorporation of smart grid technologies,distributed energy resources(DERs),a pumped-storage-hydraulic(PSH)unit,and a demand response program(DRP),is a smarter and more reliable electricity provider.DER consists of gas turbines and renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic systems and wind turbines.Better bidding strategies,prepared by MG operators,decrease the electricity cost and emissions from upstream grid and conventional and renewable energy sources(RES).But it is inefficient due to the very high sporadic characteristics of RES and the very high outage rate.To solve these issues,this study suggests non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ)for an optimal bidding strategy considering pumped hydroelectric energy storage and DRP based on outage conditions and uncertainties of renewable energy sources.The uncertainty related to solar and wind units is modeled using lognormal and Weibull probability distributions.TOU-based DRP is used,especially considering the time of outages along with the time of peak loads and prices,to enhance the reliability of MG and reduce costs and emissions.

A Novel Defender-Attacker-Defender Model for Resilient Distributed Generator Planning with Network Reconfiguration and Demand Response

To improve the resilience of a distribution system against extreme weather,a fuel-based distributed generator(DG)allocation model is proposed in this study.In this model,the DGs are placed at the planning stage.When an extreme event occurs,the controllable generators form temporary microgrids(MGs)to restore the load maximally.Simultaneously,a demand response program(DRP)mitigates the imbalance between the power supply and demand during extreme events.To cope with the fault uncertainty,a robust optimization(RO)method is applied to reduce the long-term investment and short-term operation costs.The optimization is formulated as a tri-level defenderattacker-defender(DAD)framework.At the first level,decision-makers work out the DG allocation scheme;at the second level,the attacker finds the optimal attack strategy with maximum damage;and at the third level,restoration measures,namely distribution network reconfiguration(DNR)and demand response are performed.The problem is solved by the nested column and constraint generation(NC&CG)method and the model is validated using an IEEE 33-node system.Case studies validate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed model according to the enhanced resilience and reduced cost.

Vehicle routing optimization algorithm based on time windows and dynamic demand

To provide the supplier with the minimizum vehicle travel distance in the distribution process of goods in three situations of new customer demand,customer cancellation service,and change of customer delivery address,based on the ideas of pre-optimization and real-time optimization,a two-stage planning model of dynamic demand based vehicle routing problem with time windows was established.At the pre-optimization stage,an improved genetic algorithm was used to obtain the pre-optimized distribution route,a large-scale neighborhood search method was integrated into the mutation operation to improve the local optimization performance of the genetic algorithm,and a variety of operators were introduced to expand the search space of neighborhood solutions;At the real-time optimization stage,a periodic optimization strategy was adopted to transform a complex dynamic problem into several static problems,and four neighborhood search operators were used to quickly adjust the route.Two different scale examples were designed for experiments.It is proved that the algorithm can plan the better route,and adjust the distribution route in time under the real-time constraints.Therefore,the proposed algorithm can provide theoretical guidance for suppliers to solve the dynamic demand based vehicle routing problem.

Data Driven Vibration Control:A Review

With the ongoing advancements in sensor networks and data acquisition technologies across various systems like manufacturing,aviation,and healthcare,the data driven vibration control(DDVC)has attracted broad interests from both the industrial and academic communities.Input shaping(IS),as a simple and effective feedforward method,is greatly demanded in DDVC methods.It convolves the desired input command with impulse sequence without requiring parametric dynamics and the closed-loop system structure,thereby suppressing the residual vibration separately.Based on a thorough investigation into the state-of-the-art DDVC methods,this survey has made the following efforts:1)Introducing the IS theory and typical input shapers;2)Categorizing recent progress of DDVC methods;3)Summarizing commonly adopted metrics for DDVC;and 4)Discussing the engineering applications and future trends of DDVC.By doing so,this study provides a systematic and comprehensive overview of existing DDVC methods from designing to optimizing perspectives,aiming at promoting future research regarding this emerging and vital issue.

Stochastic Air Traffic Flow Management for Demand and Capacity Balancing Under Capacity Uncertainty

This paper introduces an innovative approach to the synchronized demand-capacity balance with special focus on sector capacity uncertainty within a centrally controlled collaborative air traffic flow management(ATFM)framework.Further with previous study,the uncertainty in capacity is considered as a non-negligible issue regarding multiple reasons,like the impact of weather,the strike of air traffic controllers(ATCOs),the military use of airspace and the spatiotemporal distribution of nonscheduled flights,etc.These recessive factors affect the outcome of traffic flow optimization.In this research,the focus is placed on the impact of sector capacity uncertainty on demand and capacity balancing(DCB)optimization and ATFM,and multiple options,such as delay assignment and rerouting,are intended for regulating the traffic flow.A scenario optimization method for sector capacity in the presence of uncertainties is used to find the approximately optimal solution.The results show that the proposed approach can achieve better demand and capacity balancing and determine perfect integer solutions to ATFM problems,solving large-scale instances(24 h on seven capacity scenarios,with 6255 flights and 8949 trajectories)in 5-15 min.To the best of our knowledge,our experiment is the first to tackle large-scale instances of stochastic ATFM problems within the collaborative ATFM framework.

A Note on an Order Level Inventory Model with Varying Two-Phased Demand and Time-Proportional Deterioration

The main purpose of this paper is to generalize the effect of two-phased demand and variable deterioration within the EOQ (Economic Order Quantity) framework. The rate of deterioration is a linear function of time. The two-phased demand function states the constant function for a certain period and the quadratic function of time for the rest part of the cycle time. No shortages as well as partial backlogging are allowed to occur. The mathematical expressions are derived for determining the optimal cycle time, order quantity and total cost function. An easy-to-use working procedure is provided to calculate the above quantities. A couple of numerical examples are cited to explain the theoretical results and sensitivity analysis of some selected examples is carried out.