Demand for Money and Inflation in Ethiopia

One of the vital components of the macroeconomic model that helps policymaking is the demand for money function.Having reliable predictions on the money demand function helps in determining the optimum growth of money supply which is vital in controlling the inflation rate in the economy and also preventing monetary disturbances from affecting real output.In order to formulate and estimate the money demand function in Ethiopia,this study used quarterly data from 2000Q3 to 2021Q2 and employed the Ordinary Least Square method and Engle-Granger two-stage procedure for empirical analysis.The empirical result from the models indicates that,in the long run,all variables(real GDP,CPI inflation,real effective exchange rate,real interest rate and lagged real money balance)are significantly affecting the demand for money in Ethiopia.Whereas,the estimated coefficients of the short-run variable show that the real effective exchange rate,CPI inflation,and lagged real money balance are the main determinants of demand for money while the real GDP and real interest rate are insignificant.Another important finding is that absolute value of the coefficient of the error correction term implies that about 54.2%of the disequilibrium in real money demand is counter-balanced by short-run adjustment in each quarter.The study suggests that in conducting monetary policy,policymakers should consider not only the behavior of income and price but also the movement of exchange rates.The study also calls for appropriate formulation and estimation of the all-encompassing demand for money function that is capable of bringing stability to the growth of money coupled with sustainable economic growth.

Research on the Change of GDP Growth,Monetary Growth and Price Index based on VAR and IRF

In this paper,we use the macro data from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2015,through vector autoregressive(VAR)model,Granger causality analysis,impulse response function(RFI)and variance decomposition analysis of quantitative analysis methods,to research on the relationship among China’s real growth variation of gross domestic product(GDP),Money supply growth rate and consumer price index.We find that the money supply growth has impact on China’s real growth variation of GDP in short-term,but there is no long-term significant effect.Economic growth is the main factor to promote the consumer price index growth,money growth is not the main factor driving the change in the price index.China’s currency growth is affected significantly by the change of the economic growth.

应用混合小波神经网络和遗传算法在香港衍生品市场上的研究

提出了新的基于Black-Scholes模型的混合小波神经网络。隐含波动率是指在市场中观察的期权价格所蕴涵的波动率。基于不同种类的期权价格对波动率的敏感度不同,建立了混合小波神经网络和遗传算法相结合的模型,将期权按钱性进行分类,提出了加权的隐含波动率作为神经网络的输入变量,通过遗传算法来求取不同种类期权的隐含波动率的最优权重。在香港衍生品市场的实证中表明,所提出的模型优于传统的Black-Scholes模型。

基于人工智能的隐含波动率的敏感度的研究

隐含波动率是指在市场中观察的期权价格所蕴涵的波动率。不同种类的期权价格对波动率的敏感度不同,本文建立了小波神经网络和遗传算法相结合的模型,将期权按钱性进行分类,提出了加权的隐含波动率作为神经网络的输入变量,通过遗传算法来求取不同种类期权的隐含波动率的最优权重。在香港衍生品市场的实证中表明,本文所提出的模型要优于传统的Black-Scholes模型和其它在本文中提到的神经网络模型。

用混合小波网络和遗传算法对期权定价的研究

由于波动率微笑的存在,不同种类的期权的隐含波动率不同,如何衡量不同种类期权的隐含波动率的最优权重一直是期权定价领域中的重要问题.提出了新的基于Black-Scholes模型的混合小波神经网络,建立了混合小波神经网络和遗传算法相结合的模型,将期权按钱性进行分类,提出了加权的隐含波动率作为神经网络的输入变量,通过遗传算法来求取不同种类期权的隐含波动率的最优权重.在香港衍生品市场的实证中表明,所提出的模型要优于传统的Black-Scholes模型和其它的神经网络模型.

What Drives China's House Prices:Marriage or Money?

The high and rising house prices in China are not adequately accounted for the traditional explanations emphasizing demand-driven or cost-push factors. Reeent published studies claim that gender imbalance increases competition among men in the marriage market, which has pushed Chinese, especially parents with a son, to buy houses as a signal of relative status in the marriage market,＂ this marriage competition then causes high demand for houses and eventually leads to rising house prices in China. Empirical results in this paper, however, provide little support for this hypothesis and we find that a rise in the sex ratios for most age cohorts accounts for very small percentage variations in house price movements in China during 1998-2009. Further investigation suggests that excess demand driven by high monetary growth was a significant cause of the rising house prices in China during 1998-2009. Therefore, the impact of gender imbalance on house prices shouM not be exaggerated and monetary dynamics remains an important leading indicator for house price movements in China.

Hot Money Flows, Cycles in Primary Commodity Prices, and Financial Control in Developing Countries

Because the U.S. Federal Reserve＇s monetary policy is at the center of the world dollar standard, it has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except during international crises, the Fed focuses on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies on the rest of the world. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on short-term dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into Emerging Markets （EM） with convertible currencies. When each EM central bank intervenes to prevent its individual currency from appreciating, collectively they lose monetary control, inflate, and cause an upsurge in primary commodity prices internationally. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a return of the hot money to the United States （and to other industrial countries） as commercial banks stop lending to foreign exchange speculators. World prices of primary products then collapse. African countries with exchange controls and less convertible currencies are not so attractive to currency speculators. Thus, they are less vulnerable than EM to the ebb and flow of hot money. However, Afi-ican countries are more vulnerable to cycles in primary commodity prices because food is a greater proportion of their consumption, and--being less industrialized--they are of their commodity exports. Supply-side more vulnerable to fluctuations in prices shocks, such as a crop failure anywhere in the world, can affect the price of an individual commodity. But joint fluctuations in the prices of all primary products--minerals, energy, cereals, and so on--reflect monetary conditions in the world economy as determined by the ebb and flow of hot money from the United States, and increasingly from other industrial countries with near-zero interest rates.

Hot Money Flows,Commodity Price Cycles and Financial Repression in the USA and China:The Consequences of Near-zero US Interest Rates

Under near-zero US interest rates, the international dollar standard malfunctions. Emerging markets with naturally higher interest rates are swamped with hot money inflows. Emerging market central banks intervene to prevent their currencies from rising precipitately. They lose monetary control and domestic prices begin inflating. Primary commodity prices rise worldwide unless interrupted by an international banking crisis＇. This cyclical inflation on the dollar＇s periphery only registers in the US core eonsumer price index with a long lag. The zero interest rate policy also fails to stimulate the US economy as domestic finaneial intermediation by banks and money market mutual funds is repressed. Because China is forced to keep its interest rates below market-clearing levels, it also suffers from finaneial repression, although in a form differing from that in the USA.

A Precis of Inflation

Inflation may be described as a condition of substantially rising prices butthe measuring devices are inexact and questionable. When such conditions ex-ist,people lose purchasing power by saving money.Higher rate of inflationwould price a nation out of world markets and workers would lose jobs as thelogical consequence.Inflation is disruptive to people under such uncertainty.

Money Quantity and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy： A Quantitative Analysis

This paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of money stock on optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a stochastic production economy with sticky prices. The numerical results indicate that a sufficient large quantity of money makes a noticeable difference in many aspects of optimal monetary and fiscal policy. They suggest that the volatile inflation in China may not be as bad as the existing theory would have implied if its large amount of money is taken into consideration.

Price Rise of Natural Rubber Futures

The major 0703 contract of natural rub-bet futures in Shanghai Futures Ex-change(SFE)closed with a price riseon January 11th,2007.The prices ofnaturel rubber futures drastically roseby RMB750 per ton to RMB19 595per ton.What should be noted is thatthe position of the 0703 contract

基于非参数估计的权证定价方法及应用

针对权证市场,文中首次提出基于非参数估计的权证定价方法,其中包括完全非参数定价方法和基于模型的非参数修正定价方法,并将其应用于中国权证市场和香港权证市场的时间外权证价格预测.实证结果表明:在价值状况非单调情形下,基于模型的非参数修正定价方法效果最好,完全非参数定价方法次之,半参数定价模型以及参数定价模型效果较差;此外,在时间外的权证价格预报方面,基于模型的非参数修正定价准确性明显优于其他模型.

稀释效应、非参数修正和中国股本权证的定价

针对中国权证市场的特殊性,基于稀释效应、隐含波动率和非参数修正思想,提出适用于中国市场股本权证定价的非参数修正方法,并将其应用于时间外权证价格的预测。实证结果表明:在中国市场的权证定价和时间外权证价格预测准确性方面,基于稀释效应Ad hoc BS模型的非参数修正定价方法效果最好,相对优于不考虑稀释效应情况下的非参数修正定价方法,半参数定价模型以及参数定价模型效果较差.

STYLE RADAR

TAP THAT APP Hopper Most frequent flyers know that departing on a Tuesday will save you money,but can you guess which single day in August is the cheapest to fly?Hopper can.An ad-free app designed to help you pay as ltte as possible for a flight,Hopper lets you compare general prices over time with its color-coded calendar.

STYLE RADAR

OVERHEARD"I'ljust get a fake one on Taobao for 20 kuai"Says one Weibo user after the release of Prada's new money clip,designed in the shape of a paperclip.Available at Barneys for USD185(approximately RMB1,250),this paperclip is made entirely with silver,and hey,it's got a Prada logo on the side too!Since its launch,netizens have made fun of its outrageous price tag.Some savvy consumers have also done the math for us;with the same amount of money,you can buy more than 34,000 regular paperclips at an office supplies store.