东北地区土地覆被格局变化模拟:基于CLUE-S和Markov-CA模型的对比分析

研究以遥感解译的东北地区2000年、2010年、2015年的土地覆被变化为基础,充分考虑自然和社会因素对土地覆被变化的影响,分别通过CLUE-S模型和Markov-CA模型对东北地区2015年和2030年土地覆被格局进行模拟,研究结果表明:通过与遥感解译的2015年实际土地覆被类型数据对比验证,CLUE-S模型和Markov-CA模型模拟结果的总体Kappa指数分别为0.9700和0.9649,结果表明2种模型的模拟结果较为理想,CLUE-S模型的模拟精度较Markov-CA模型更高。2015—2030年东北地区草地、耕地、湿地、其他用地和水体面积呈现下降趋势,林地、人工表面面积呈现增加趋势,人地关系越发紧张。东北地区作为生态环境相对脆弱的区域需警惕不可持续的土地覆被变化,需权衡生态保护、粮食增加与基础设施建设的用地需求和协调发展。

ON EVOLUTION OF MAN-LAND SYSTEM IN OASIS-Taking Minqin Basin as a Case

Human beings have had a tremendous i mpact on natural ecosystems and are n ow the principal power to change the biosphere.It is logical t hat we should pay close attention to t he interaction between human system s and environ-mental systems.Taking Minqin basin,Gansu Province,as a case,this paper focuses on the evolution of regional physi-cal environments and the cultural sy stems by which people maintain their relationships with those environme nts.This pa-per presents the conceptual framewo rk for the man-land system.Expectin g to accelerate the regional sustain able develop-ment,it also analyses the evolution ary mechanism of regional man-land s ystem.On the basis of reviewing and a nalyzing the evolution of man-land system in Minqin basin,the paper also brings fo rward an adjusting mode for the studi ed area,which consists of three aspects:to b uild up a concept that economic growt h must harmonize with environmental quality’s and land productivity’s improvemen t;to make a whole planning and management in the drainage area;and to push for-ward the technique of water-saving i rrigation and establish water-saving agricultural system.It’s meanin gful for resource exploitation and sustainable development of Chinese northwestern arid area,which is represented by Minqin basin,by under-standing what great changes the basin has experienced and is experiencin g at the global background,and studying its time order and territorial structure,th e system’s character and law of evolu tion,trend and the regulating ways t o improve man-land relationship.

STATUS AND DYNAMIC CHANGE OF REGIONAL MAN- LAND SYSTEM IN VIEW OF MICRO-LEVEL QUANTITATIVE ASPECT -Case Study of Gongyi City of Henan Province

A micro-level analysis on man-land system is important in understanding the content of human geography in rural areas, particularly in the different regions. This paper is based on a survey undertaken in the three villages of Wugou Village, Hutuo Village, and Xiaonan Village of Gongyi City, Henan Province in April 2003. The survey covers three types of economic and social activities from 214 households. Data collected include 120 attributes for each household. By using theories from the relevant disciplines such as geography, mathematics, physics, ecology, and system sciences, this paper develops a framework employing the concept of system entropy in the status function of the man-land system. In this framework, the entropy change is used to show the evolution of the system, and the entropy flow to express the flow among the spatial parts of the system. Following the framework, and using a large set of household data from surveys, the paper makes a quantitative analysis of the village-level man-land system from a micro-perspective. After a theoretical investigation, the corresponding strategies in the paper are then put forward in order to adjust the unbalanced trend of the village man-land system from both perspectives of small-area and individual actors.

集体经营性建设用地入市农户满意度影响因素研究——基于Logistic-ISM模型的分析

农户满意程度可以反映政策改革成效,探究农户集体经营性建设用地入市满意度影响因素,有助于评价政策实施效果,同时对提升农村发展和农民幸福感也有一定的现实意义.采用问卷调查和访谈的方式,选取重庆市大足区作为研究区域,基于Logistic模型确定农户满意度的影响因素,结合ISM模型分析各影响因素之间的层次关系,对农民的政策实施满意度影响因素进行实证分析.研究结果显示:(1)针对入市实施效果,绝大部分农户持满意态度,不满意的地方集中在收益分配不及时和环境污染方面;(2)家中是否有村干部、生态环境变化情况、是否参与表决、分配公平性、入市实际收益、程序透明性、入市风险存在情况、对入市土地所有者的认知对入市农户满意度有显著影响.其中对入市土地所有者的认知、入市风险存在情况、入市实际收益为表层直接因素,中层间接因素有生态环境变化情况、是否参与表决、分配公平性以及程序透明性,家中是否有村干部为深层根源因素.应进一步完善土地产权制度,明晰入市到期后土地权属问题;健全监督管理机制,建立集体经营性建设用地入市单位的产业目录和准入标准制度;完善收益分配机制,制定集体土地入市指导性分配意见;将村集体负责人纳入政府基层领导队伍体系,提高程序透明性.

Application of“3S”Technology in Land Resource Management

Land is the foundation of human existence,and it is also an important prerequisite and foundation for social construction and economic development.However,with the continuing construction and development of society and economy,a large number of trees have been felled,and the level of land desertification has been increasing.Therefore,it is very necessary to pay attention to strengthening land resource management.The application of“3S”technology in land resource management not only solves some problems in land resources,but also promotes the development of China’s economy.The author conducted research and analysis on“3S”technology,and put forward an effective strategy for the application of“3S”technology in land resource management,hoping to help the smooth progress of land resource management activities.

Research on the Policy of "Man-Land-Money" Linkage in the Process of Urbanization

At present,there are many problems in the self-circular development model of"land transfer-real estate development-land financeurban sprawl"in China.The endogenous power of policy implementation is insufficient,the top-level design is not systematic enough,the departmental linkage mechanism is flawed,the local basic data is weak,and there are difficulties in technical operation.According to the current situation,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:based on the establishment of financial transfer payment mechanism in rural areas,the construction of the system of man,land and money should be promoted in coordination,and a scientific monitoring system of urbanization degree should be established,so as to make up for the deficiency of the slow speed of"man urbanization"and make the new urbanization healthy and sustainable.

Development of Qinba Mountainous Area in the Historical Period from the Perspective of Man-Land Relationship

Taking agricultural development as the starting point,this paper explored the dynamic mechanism and implementation path of agricultural development in Qinba Mountainous Area from the perspective of man-land relationship. It found the regular understanding of ecological changes in Qinba Mountains. It is a comprehensive review and exploration on agricultural development and environmental evolution,and aims to provide a historical reference for the development of the contemporary Qinba Mountains.

基于CLUE-S模型的吴忠市土地利用时空演变及多情景模拟预测

【目的】研究不同情景下的未来土地利用时空演变格局,为合理利用土地资源、科学规划国土空间开发格局和区域高质量发展提供助力。【方法】研究团队以宁夏回族自治区吴忠市为研究对象,选取2000年、2010年和2020年3期土地利用数据,运用土地利用转移矩阵、CLUE-S模型,分析研究区2000—2020年土地利用变化特征,模拟自然增长情景、生态保护情景和经济增长情景下2030年吴忠市土地利用演变特征。【结果】1)2000—2020年吴忠市草地面积占比最大,其次是耕地和未利用地,建设用地面积不断增长;建设用地面积变化最快,并以耕地转化为建设用地为主。2)2030年建设用地面积在自然增长情景下将会减少,生态保护情景下林地面积增幅较大,经济增长情景下各土地利用类型变化较小。3)在3种情景下,吴忠市2030年土地利用结构仍然以耕地、林地、草地为主,建设用地面积在生态保护情景和经济增长情景下将呈增长的趋势,在自然增长情景下将呈减少趋势。【结论】生态保护情景下的预测结果更符合国土空间规划要求和经济社会发展的需求。该研究成果对推动吴忠市未来土地利用格局规划具有重要意义。

The development rule of man-land relationship and sustainable development for the artifi cial oasis in the east of north slopes of Tianshan Mountain

The paper researches on the pattern of man-land relationship of artif icial oasis in the east of north Tian-shan Mountain, the development of Qitai artif icial oasis and its relationship with environment, analyzes the factors in? uencing the change of Qitai artifi cial oasis and economic growth through grey analysis, and suggests the ap-proaches of sustainable development of Qitai artifi cial oasis. Research shows that the pattern of artif icial oasis and its environment had gone through three phases: the relatively harmonious stage, the unharmonious stage, and the new fragile balance stage. It also shows that the garden and the shelter-forest are useful to the sustainable develop-ment of Qitai oasis according to grey analysis.

The Application of Modern Art Techniques in T.S. Eliot's The Waste Land

The literature in 20th century is mainly characterized by irrationalism presented in modernism. Under the background, this paper aims to explore how Eliot attempts to use modern art techniques in The Waste Land to reveal a real life to readers.

基于S-CAD方法的采矿用地方式改革试点政策评估研究——以鄂尔多斯市为例

2011年,经国土资源部批准,针对部分地区出台了《采矿用地方式改革试点方案》,内蒙古仅鄂尔多斯市参与试点工作。2020年6月,自然资源部印发《关于做好采矿用地方式改革试点有关工作的通知》(自然资办函〔2020〕1136号),提出2021年6月30日后不再新批准试点矿山使用临时用地进行生产建设,并组织开展试点政策实施效果评估,推动试点成果政策转化。本文引入S-CAD政策评估方法,对鄂尔多斯市采矿用地方式改革试点政策进行评估,包括政策的内在逻辑性、经济充要性和可行性等方面,以便总结试点经验。研究结果表明,政策的逻辑思路清晰,政策元素间的因果一致性较好,不存在政策要素间的矛盾;各政策要素间总体上充分且必要,资源配置效率较高。总之,在鄂尔多斯试点地区该政策的实施取得了较好的成效,但仍存在采矿用地方式改革试点复垦规划编制不够科学严谨的问题,导致矿企复垦土地质量不高,这些问题需要进一步完善相应的管控措施。该方法的实践与应用为其他试点地区的经验总结和评估提供了可借鉴和参考的理论方法。

PRESENT STATUS AND CAUSE OF LAND DESERTIFICATION IN THE YARLUNG ZANGBO RIVER BASIN

The Yarlung Zangbo River basin is a spacial zone in the south of Xizang, the types, distribution and causes of desertified lands have special features. The type, area, distribution and damage of desertification land in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin are firstly analysed in detail by using latest investigation information. According to the classification criteria of desertified land types and grades, the desertified land in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin can be divided into three grades and five types: fixed sand (dune) land, semi bare sand and gravel land, semi fixed sand (dune) land, base sand and gravel land, and shifting sand (dune) land. The desertified lands in the basin are mainly distributed in the wide valley floor and tributary junction area. The main factors affecting desertification are fragile eco environment, climate warming and drying and over exploitation of land resources. The man made factors leading to desertification in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin are over cutting and over grazing, dominated by over grazing.

基于案例分析的S-CAD政策评估方法理论研究初探

为突破传统S-CAD政策评估方法的思维限制,借鉴公共政策评估标准,从价值/政策、事实相融合的维度,采用理论分析法、文献检索法尝试构建S-CAD政策评估框架的定量评估指标体系。结果表明:(1)通过公共政策评估理论的学习,尝试构建基于“二维”的S-CAD政策评估框架;(2)结合实证分析,以内蒙古鄂尔多斯市露天矿采矿用地方式改革试点政策为例,从政策评估事实维度与价值维度出发构建了包括5个指标单元、23个单项指标在内的合理、可行的采矿临时用地政策评估指标体系。在“二维”融合视角下构建的S-CAD政策评估思路可行,且具有可操作性,可为进一步完善S-CAD政策评估方法的理论及量化研究提供参考。

Examining the Relationship Between Spatial Configurations of Urban Impervious Surfaces and Land Surface Temperature

The urban heat island(UHI) effect has significant effects on the quality of life and public health. Numerous studies have addressed the relationship between UHI and the increase in urban impervious surface area(ISA), but few of them have considered the impact of the spatial configuration of ISA on UHI. Land surface temperature(LST) may be affected not only by urban land cover, but also by neighboring land cover. The aim of this research was to investigate the effects of the abundance and spatial association of ISAs on LST. Taking Harbin City, China as an example, the impact of ISA spatial association on LST measurements was examined. The abundance of ISAs and the LST measurements were derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM) imagery of 2000 and 2010, and the spatial association patterns of ISAs were calculated using the local Moran’s I index. The impacts of ISA abundance and spatial association on LST were examined using correlation analysis. The results suggested that LST has significant positive associations with both ISA abundance and the Moran’s I index of ISAs, indicating that both the abundance and spatial clustering of ISAs contribute to elevated values of LST. It was also found that LST is positively associated with clustering of high-ISA-percentage areas(i.e.,>50%) and negatively associated with clustering of low-ISA-percentage areas(i.e.,<25%). The results suggest that, in addition to the abundance of ISAs,their spatial association has a significant effect on UHIs.

Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model,and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model.The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices.Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development:1) urban development following existing trends;and 2) under a strict farmland control.The simulations suggested that under either mode,urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses.This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015,and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland.The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County,Changping District and Fangshan District.Also,the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing,suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.

Hydraulic model with roughness coefficient updating method based on Kalman filter for channel flood forecast

A real-time channel flood forecast model was developed to simulate channel flow in plain rivers based on the dynamic wave theory. Taking into consideration channel shape differences along the channel, a roughness updating technique was developed using the Kalman filter method to update Manning＇s roughness coefficient at each time step of the calculation processes. Channel shapes were simplified as rectangles, triangles, and parabolas, and the relationships between hydraulic radius and water depth were developed for plain rivers. Based on the relationship between the Froude number and the inertia terms of the momentum equation in the Saint-Venant equations, the relationship between Manning＇s roughness coefficient and water depth was obtained. Using the channel of the Huaihe River from Wangjiaba to Lutaizi stations as a case, to test the performance and rationality of the present flood routing model, the original hydraulic model was compared with the developed model. Results show that the stage hydrographs calculated by the developed flood routing model with the updated Manning＇s roughness coefficient have a good agreement with the observed stage hydrographs. This model performs better than the original hydraulic model.

Application of Land-use Change Model in Guiding Regional Planning:A Case Study in Hun-Taizi River Watershed,Northeast China

This paper firstly investigated the land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) in the Hun-Taizi River watershed, Northeast China from 1988 to 2004 based on remotely sensed images and geographic information systems (GIS) technology. Then, using the famous land-use change model of Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S), this paper simulated the land use changes under historical trend (HT), urban planning (UP) and ecological protection (EP) scenarios considering urban planning and ecological protection over the next 20 years. The simulated results under UP scenario in 2020 were compared with the planning map to assess the feasibility of using land-use change model to guide regional planning. Results show that forest land, dry farmland, paddy, and shrub land were the main land-use categories. Paddy and dry farmland being converted to urban area and rural settlement characterized the land-use change from 1988 to 2004. The main land-use categories changed over time. Landscape-pattern fragmentation will be worse under HT and UP scenarios, but better in EP scenario. The comparing results of simulated map with planning map in 2020 show that land-use change model is powerful tool to guide regional planning. Land-use scenarios can support regional planning and policy-making through analyzing future consequences scientifically.

Analysis on Causes of Rural Land Expropriation Disputes Based on Smith's Model

Frequent occurrence of land expropriation disputes in rural areas of China has attracted attention of scholars to study causes. Most existing studies discuss causes from " structure- institution" level. In other words,land expropriation disputes are caused by existing imperfect institutions,regulations,and policies. Such analysis model points institutional causes,but pays little attention to policy implementation process,especially the subjective initiative of parties concerned. This paper described a decade-long land expropriation dispute case in detail.Through description of event and process and survey of reasons of actors,it revealed factors resulting in occurrence and upgrade of dispute,and analyzed factors and their interactions with the aid of Smith Process Model.

Pure S-waves in land P-wave source VSP data

常规土地垂直地震介绍(VSP ) 探索通常为接收装置使用 P 波浪来源和三部件的地震检波器，强调 P -- 并且变换 S 波浪。以前的研究证明从在表面的可控制的地震来源的两炸毁地上凿穿射击和垂直颤动将生产相对强壮的纯 P 波浪和更弱的纯 S 波浪。大泊松的比率差别的接口在强壮的播送变换 S 波浪的形成上有积极影响。由从来源的纯 S 波浪的比较分析并且在去的 S 波浪下面变换了，当时，我们相信纯 S 波浪的主要频率通常比纯 P 波浪低主要频率在变变换下面， S 波浪接近 P 波浪的。我们学习了零偏移量并且从陆地 P 波浪的偏移量 VSP 数据采购原料。结果证明纯 S 波浪通常在波浪紧张与差别在这些数据存在。S 波浪速度能从 P 波浪来源被获得零偏移量的 VSP 数据。最后，我们讨论 VSP P 的联合申请的明亮的未来 -- 并且 S 波浪和在 P 波浪的 S 波浪的完整的使用采购 VSP 数据。