Condition-Based Maintenance Decision-Making for Equipment

At present, condition monitoring and fault diagnosis technology and their application in engineering have been widely studied. Relatively little attention has been paid to condition-based maintenance decision-making for equipment. In this paper,based on the decision-making policy in traditional condition-based maintenance,the connotation of condition-based maintenance for equipment was defined, and its characteristics were analyzed.Working contents of condition-based maintenance for equipment were provided,which were divided into three stages. The influence factors in condition-based maintenance for equipment were analyzed. The key links of equipment maintenance contents and decision-making process were proposed. The condition-based maintenance decision-making policy presented in this paper can provide a practical reference for equipment maintenance.

Spatial aggregations for spatial based decision making in spatial data warehouses

For spatial based decision making such as choice of best place to construct a new department store, spatial data warehousing system is required more and more previous spatial data warehousing systems; however, provided decision making of non-spatial data on a map and so those cannot support enough spatial based decision making. The spatial aggregations are proposed for spatial based decision making in spatial data warehouses. The meaning of aggregation operators for applying spatial data was modified and new spatial aggregations were defined. These aggregations can support hierarchical concept of spatial measure. Using these aggregations, the spatial analysis classified by non-spatial data is provided. In case study, how to use these aggregations and how to support spatial based decision making are shown.

Integration of Decision-Support and Knowledge-Based Techniques in a Problem-Solving Strategy for Selection Problems

The limitations of traditional approaches to selection problems are examined. A problemsolving strategy is presented in which decision-support and knowledge-based techniques play complementary roles. An approach to the representation of knowledge to support the problem-solving strategy is presented which avoids commitment to a specific programming language or implementation environment. The problem of choosing a home is used to illustrate the representation of knowledge in a specific problem domain. Techniques for implementation of the problem-solving strategy are described. Knowledge elicitation techniques and their implementation in a development shell for application of the problem-solving strategy to any selection problem are also described.

A Model-Based, Aspiration-Led Decision Support System NY-IEDSS

An AI-aided simulation system embedded in a model-based, aspiration-led decision support system NY-IEDSS is reported. The NY-IEDSS is designed for mid-term development strategic study of the Nanyang Region in Henan, China, and is getting beyond its prototype stage under the decision maker's (the end user) orientation. The integration of simulation model system, decision analysis and expert system for decision support in the system implementation was reviewed. The intent of the paper is to provide insight as to how system capability and acceptability can be enhanced by this integration. Moreover, emphasis is placed on problem orientation in applying the method.

Application of Operational Approaches to Solving Decision Making Problem Using Z-Numbers

The combination of fuzzy logic tools and multi-criteria decision making has a great relevance in literature. Compared with the classical fuzzy number, Z-number has more ability to describe the human knowledge. It can describe both restraint and reliability. Prof. L. Zadeh introduced the concept of Z-numbers to describe the uncertain information which is a more generalized notion closely related to reliability. Use of Z-information is more adequate and intuitively meaningful for formalizing information of a decision making problem. In this paper, Z-number is applied to solve multi-criteria decision making problem. In this paper, we consider two approaches to decision making with Z-information. The first approach is based on converting the Z-numbers to crisp number to determine the priority weight of each alternative. The second approach is based on Expected utility theory by using Z-numbers. To illustrate a validity of suggested approaches to decision making with Z-information the numerical examples have been used.

A Practical Decision Making on Design of Fixed Offshore Wind Turbine Support Structure Considering Socio-economic Impact

Wind energy is considered one of the most promising alternative energy sources against the conventional fossil fuels.However,the deployment of these structures in deep-water for better power production is considered as a complex task.This also has raised the issue regarding selection of appropriate support structures for various sea conditions by considering environmental impact and carbon footprint.This paper considers a jacket like support structure as a case study for an intermediate water depth(50m).The jacket is considered to be located in North of Dutch Sea,and 100-extreme wave is applied as load condition.Here,the presented methodology provides an insight towards environmental/social impact made by the optimized designs in comparison with reference design.

Basic Concept and Theoretical Study of Condition-based Maintenance for Power Transmission System

状态检修背景下,为解决电网运行整体与输变电设备个体之间的矛盾和冲突,在已有研究成果基础上,提出电网状态检修的概念,在输变电设备状态检修决策过程中,给出电网故障风险和电网检修风险的定义以及相应的量化表达式。依据设备状态预测,以电网故障风险和电网检修风险的和最小为目标,将设备检修、运行以及电网整体性能在概率引导下相互牵制,形成电网状态检修的数学模型,并给出相应的解决方法。最后,为验证该理论研究的可行性,分别以可靠性测试系统RBTS-BUS6和IEEE-RTS79系统为例,对各种情况进行分析,体现了预期的效果,并期望为电网检修与运行协调决策理论的深入研究提供必要的理论基础。

Scenario-based approach for project portfolio selection in army engineering and manufacturing development

The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned.Projects are typically selected based on ex ante estimates of future return values,which are usually difficult to specify or only generated after project launch.A scenario-based approach is presented here to address the problem of selecting a project portfolio under incomplete scenario information and interdependency constraints.In the first stage,the relevant dominance concepts of scenario analysis are studied to handle the incomplete information.Then,a scenario-based programming approach is proposed to handle the interdependencies to obtain the projects,whose return values are multi-criteria with interval data.Finally,an illustrative example of army engineering and manufacturing development shows the feasibility and advantages of the scenario-based multi-objective programming approach.

Multi-objective optimization based optimal setting control for industrial double-stream alumina digestion process

The operation variables,including feed rate of ore slurry,caustic solution and live steams in the double-stream alumina digestion process,determine the product quality,process costs and the environment pollution.Previously,they were set by the technical workers according to the offline analysis results and an empirical formula,which leads to unstable process indices and high consumption frequently.So,a multi-objective optimization model is built to maintain the balance between resource consumptions and process indices by taking technical indices and energy efficiency as objectives,where the key technical indices are predicted based on the digestion kinetics of diaspore.A multi-objective state transition algorithm(MOSTA)is improved to solve the problem,in which a self-adaptive strategy is applied to dynamically adjust the operator factors of the MOSTA and dynamic infeasible threshold is used to handle constraints to enhance searching efficiency and ability of the algorithm.Then a rule based strategy is designed to make the final decision from the Pareto frontiers.The method is integrated into an optimal control system for the industrial digestion process and tested in the actual production.Results show that the proposed method can achieve the technical target while reducing the energy consumption.

Performance-Based Design through Implementation of FEMA P-58 Methodology in Developing Countries

This paper investigates a simple approach proposed towards performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) which has potential applications to the performance-based design (PBD) and performance-based assessment (PBA) fields. The simple method of PBEE encompasses three areas of seismic risk which include seismic hazard, structural analysis, and loss models. The aim of the PBEE process, entitled as FEMA P-58, is to present essential data needed to make a rational decision regarding predicted performance, where various sources of uncertainties are involved. In developing countries, the lack of suitable real ground motions corresponding to site characteristics and seismicity particularly for larger intensities and the scarcity of demands, which makes it hard to identify the seismic capacity of a structure, is the main our motivation of using the FEMA method. In this paper, the method of FEMA P-58 is investigated, in terms of available tools and required data, in such a way that it will be applicable for developing countries which are located in high seismic hazard zones. To achieve this goal, three steel moment-resisting buildings with low and high ductility, and three steel braced-frame buildings are selected as case studies. The mean annual loss is estimated by the available software, Performance Assessment Calculation Tool (PACT). The achieved results, i.e. the loss curves, will provide a simple means by which the engineers can quantify and communicate seismic performance to other stakeholders. In the case study buildings, the braced one has less annual losses in comparison with other investigated cases, and the structure with high ductility can be considered as the next ones. Execution cost of each building should be considered by contractors. Also, seismic fragility curves of structures for various limit states, as well, the corresponding loss models are identified as the most essential data towards application of the investigated PBEE process.

中医适宜技术治疗脑卒中后偏瘫的循证临床实践指南

脑卒中是成年人死亡和残疾的主要原因之一。中医适宜技术在脑卒中后偏瘫的康复治疗中广泛应用,然而尚缺乏系统的、高质量的循证指南来指导这些实践。本指南根据《世界卫生组织指南制订手册》和《中西医结合诊疗指南制订手册》制定,遵循卫生保健实践指南的报告要求,并参照推荐分级的评估、制定与评价系统对证据质量及推荐强度进行分级。本指南组建了包括5个小组在内的跨学科工作团队,通过问卷、面对面专家会议和问题解构方法来选择指南中需要回答的关键临床问题。从25个关键问题中筛选出10个进行研究。基于系统评价的结果,考虑到证据的优缺点、干预成本、证据质量、患者偏好及价值观、多学科专家的反馈和共识,本指南提出了20条关于中医适宜技术在脑卒中后偏瘫康复治疗中应用的推荐意见。本指南主要面向中国各级医院和康复机构的医务工作者,专注于中医适宜技术在脑卒中后偏瘫康复治疗中的临床应用。

大数据驱动的决策制定:乐观抑或悲观?

大数据驱动公共决策模式迭代升级,重构了决策制定、执行、监督和反馈全链条中的权力关系与资源配置。对此,学界出现了乐观论与悲观论两种基本的论调:乐观者认为大数据驱动的决策制定具有诸多优势和良好发展前景;悲观者则认为现实中的大数据并不一定会促使决策更加精准、科学和民主,反而可能会因数据本身来源和格式的复杂性、数据互通和共享标准的差异性、多主体利益博弈的政治性以及隐私侵犯和信息泄露的可能性而导致更为复杂的政策失灵。进一步分析发现,乐观论和悲观论之间的分歧主要源于技术与政治、权利与权力、工具理性与价值理性之间孰轻孰重。面向未来,可以推动大数据驱动的决策制定向审慎的乐观主义迈进,建构数字技术、政治过程与制度运作之间的互嵌与互适关系,以此锚定大数据驱动决策制定的基本方向,真正发挥大数据在政府决策和社会治理中的作用。

基于中医古籍知识库的临床辅助决策系统建设

旨在探索中医古籍知识库在临床辅助决策系统中的应用与建设。中医古籍包含了丰富的临床经验和中医理论知识,然而由于古籍数量庞大且馆藏分散,保存状态参差不齐,使得医生在临床实践难以充分运用。因此,将中医古籍知识库与临床辅助决策系统相结合,逐渐成为提升中医临床诊疗水平的重要趋势之一。本研究收集岭南中医古籍共计278本,涵盖488种疾病,1198种证候,3907种症状,系统对中医古籍进行整理和分类,构建出一个结构化和标准化的中医古籍库,同时关联引入现代临床医学相关知识,形成了综合性的中医临床知识库。本文设计了一套基于规则的推理引擎和机器学习算法,根据患者的症状、体质等信息,从中医古籍知识库中检索出相应的诊断和治疗建议。通过实际应用和测试,验证了基于中医古籍知识库的临床辅助决策系统可提高中医诊疗的有效性,系统的建设不仅有助于传承和发扬中医古籍知识,也为现代中医临床实践提供了有力的支持。

高校领导干部循证决策能力:结构、功能及提升路径

高校领导干部循证决策能力是其在高校决策过程中体现出的能够有意识地以有效证据为中心开展认知、行为等一系列活动的心理特征。通过分析高校循证决策的内涵和生成过程,将高校领导干部循证决策能力划分为循证认知能力、证据集成能力、证据运用能力等三个维度以及十个子要素。高校领导干部循证决策能力是实现大学有效治理的前提,是高校决策科学化的基础,是高校领导干部的专业核心能力,是院校研究决策支持功能实现的重要保障。为进一步提升高校领导干部的循证决策能力,政府和高校要开展循证决策的教育培训工作,建立循证决策证据获取机制,完善循证决策评价考核机制。

应急安全投资项目评价决策准则研究

为了提高投资项目决策的科学性,促进大国应急事业的发展,提出了应急安全投资项目评价决策的准则。文章分析了期望损益值法、效用期望值理论和预期理论等三类投资项目决策准则的使用中决策者的行为特征,提出了根据风险决策者的风险类型来决定选用的风险决策理论,以及可用风险偏好规避混合决策者的概念来诠释阿莱悖论问题源于风险偏好规避混合者的决策行为的观点,并运用案例论证了风险偏好规避混合者在期望值附近拐点处的投资风险态度会发生逆转或突变的特征。结果表明预期理论的适用对象是风险偏好规避混合者,在应急预案组合决策中期望值理论与期望效用理论存在无效性,主要源于应急投资备选预案的决策者属于风险偏好规避混合决策者,其通常会选择承担具有随机性的事故损失的方案,也不会选择承担具有确定的事故损失的方案。所以在应急投资组合方案决策过程中,考虑风险偏好规避混合者的属性和依据预期理论作为决策准则具有现实指导意义。

基于循证决策的公立医院精益运营管理模式构建

全面提升公立医院高质量发展新效能是“十四五”时期深化公立医院改革的关键顶层设计。针对近年来药品耗材加成取消、支付方式改革的深度推进等公立医院面临的宏观环境变化,公立医院运营微观层面存在的诊疗业务与经济运行活动相分离、决策方式粗放、资源配置不合理以及流程亟待优化等突出问题,借鉴价值管理、精益管理和循证决策等理论,探索构建基于“业财融合、精益运营、循证决策”的三位一体公立医院精益运营管理模式。旨在打破临床诊疗业务与经济运营管理“双线”相对平行运作壁垒,探索形成业财融合直线参谋型管理新架构,充分发挥专家治院作用,将“技术型+管理型”双轮驱动的专业委员会制度纳入医院决策体系,为医院领导层科学决策提供循证支持。

基于EDAS的高端装备制造业协同创新伙伴选择

伴随市场环境的复杂多变,高端装备制造业必须通过协同创新来增强技术实力及提高创新成效,其中伙伴选择是其实现创新的关键一步。首先,分析总结伙伴选择评价指标相关文献,并结合高端装备制造业协同创新发展需求,从互补性、兼容性、创新资源、创新能力、创新环境、声誉与信任及技术水平这7个维度,建立了高端装备制造业协同创新伙伴选择指标体系;然后,考虑到高端装备制造业的复杂性及专家评价的模糊性,在概率犹豫模糊环境下,构建基于可能度的平均解距离法(evaluation based on distance from average solution,EDAS)群决策评价模型,并将其应用到该指标体系下的协同创新伙伴选择中;最后,通过一个算例,对该研究方法加以验证,为高端装备制造业进行协同创新伙伴选择提供一定的参考。

2型糖尿病病人饮食决策辅助工具最佳证据总结

目的:整合2型糖尿病(T2DM)病人饮食决策辅助工具的最佳证据,为临床护理人员提供参考。方法:根据“6S”证据模型检索临床决策网、指南网、英文数据库、中文数据库、国内外糖尿病协会网站中关于T2DM病人饮食决策的相关文献,并对各类研究的文献质量评价后进行证据提取及汇总。结果:共纳入10篇文献,包括指南4篇、系统评价1篇、质性研究1篇、随机对照试验(RCT)4篇,依据现有证据总结出目标评估、核心要素、呈现形式、健康教育、结局指标5个方面共28条T2DM病人饮食决策辅助工具最佳证据。结论:总结的T2DM病人饮食决策辅助工具最佳证据为临床护理人员编制及应用相关工具提供了循证依据,护理人员可结合临床情况和病人饮食决策情况开展实践研究。

患者决策辅助工具开发流程研究现状

患者决策辅助工具是实施医患共同决策的有效手段。本文介绍国际上主要组织关于患者决策辅助工具的开发流程与方法,探讨其特点和差异,分析国内开发患者决策辅助工具的挑战,提出相应建议,以期为国内患者决策辅助工具的开发提供参考。