Maximum Group Perceived Utility Consensus Models Considering Regret Aversion

In the consensus-reaching process(CRP),the actual utility of decision-makers(DMs)is often influenced by the psychological behavior of regret aversion.However,the influence of regret aversion on DMs’utilities is rarely taken into account in the existing consensus models.The consensus-reaching problem of DMs with regret aversion is explored to maximize their perceived utilities under a limited budget.Firstly,three basic types of perceived utility functions are constructed based on the regret theory to describe the perceived utility of DMs with various preferences.Then,considering the limited budget and individual regret aversion,the maximum perceived utility consensus models based on types of left-skewed,right-skewed,middle-skewed,and heterogeneous utility preferences are proposed to achieve the consensus that maximizes the group perceived utility.After that,an example of land-transfer price negotiation in China is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed models.Finally,the model comparison and the sensitivity analysis are presented to reveal the influence of DMs’regret aversion on the CRP.The results suggest that the DMs’regret aversion will not affect left-skewed and right-skewed groups,but will affect the consensus results of middle-skewed and heterogeneous groups.

Reflections on Improvement of Utility Model System in China

Even since 1985 when the Patent Law was launched in China, the utility model patent has been playing a very important role. Over the two decades, the utility model system has played an active part in encouraging invention-creations, and promoting the progress and development of science and technology.

Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Driving Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Gonghe County

Using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land in Gonghe County, and using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to inspect the effect of driving changing on cultivated land change under different change situations. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed from the county territory scale level. At last, some corresponding policies and measures were put forward.

Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Drives Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Qinghai Lake Area

Using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to study the driving force of cultivated land in Qinghai Lake Area, and using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed, and the differences during all factors were compared. The study provides some decision basis for sustainable utilization and management of land resources in Qinghai Lake Area.

CGE model-based analysis of the neutralized hybrid carbon policy and its decomposed effects on economic growth,carbon reduction,and energy utilization costs

The hybrid policy is a flexible policy tool that combines features of carbon trading and carbon taxation.Its economic and environmental effects under China's background are still not studied in detail.Given the exogenous carbon reduction targets,carbon prices,and carbon tax-rates,by computable general equilibrium modeling methods and factor decomposition methods,this article investigates direct and cascaded effects of the hybrid policy on economic growth,energy utilization,and carbon emission on the national level and the sector level,with China's national input-output data-set.Stepwisely,policy scenarios with irrational estimated results are selectively excluded based on comprehensive evaluation among economic,carbon reduction and other policy targets.As a result,against national economic conditions in 2007,the hybrid policy,with a carbon reduction target of -10%,a carbon tax-rate of around $10,and a ceiling carbon price of $40,is highly recommended,because of its significant lower economic loss,lower energy utilization cost,and practical robustness against fluctuation of energy market and carbon market.Furthermore,by decomposition analysis,carbon reduction-related costs are decomposed into a direct part that includes carbon allowance price and carbon tax,and an indirect part as the energy price incremental induced by direct carbon costs.Gross carbon reduction may be decomposed into three parts such as energy intensity,economic scale,and technical progress.And,carbon taxation is the main policy tool that stimulates to improve the energy efficiency.

THE OPTIMAL REINSURANCE-INVESTMENT PROBLEM CONSIDERING THE JOINT INTERESTS OF AN INSURER AND A REINSURER UNDER HARA UTILITY

This paper focuses on an optimal reinsurance and investment problem for an insurance corporation which holds the shares of an insurer and a reinsurer.Assume that the insurer can purchase reinsurance from the reinsurer,and that both the insurer and the reinsurer are allowed to invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset which are governed by the Heston model and are distinct from one another.We aim to find the optimal reinsuranceinvestment strategy by maximizing the expected Hyperbolic Absolute Risk Aversion(HARA)utility of the insurance corporation’s terminal wealth,which is the weighted sum of the insurer’s and the reinsurer’s terminal wealth.The Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB)equation is first established.However,this equation is non-linear and is difficult to solve directly by any ordinary method found in the existing literature,because the structure of this HJB equation is more complex under HARA utility.In the present paper,the Legendre transform is applied to change this HJB equation into a linear dual one such that the explicit expressions of optimal investment-reinsurance strategies for-1≤ρi≤1 are obtained.We also discuss some special cases in a little bit more detail.Finally,numerical analyses are provided.

Design and Optimization of Multiple Interconnected Utility Systems in An Integrated Refining and Petrochemical Complex

In an integrated refining and petrochemical complex,a centralized utility system(CUS)is introduced to integrate the steam demands of production plants.Besides,two sub-utility systems(SUSs)located inside the alkene and refinery plants,respectively,can satisfy the shaft demands.It is difficult to determine the steam production of the CUS because the steam demands of the alkene and refinery plants also depend on the design and operation of the SUSs.To explore the complicated interaction between the CUS and SUSs,we proposed a mixed-integer nonlinear programming(MINLP)model for the design and optimization of multiple interconnected utility systems to minimize the total annualized cost(TAC).An extended superstructure was suggested to contain multiple inter-plant connected steam pipe alternatives between the CUS and SUSs.A more accurate model of the complex steam turbine was proposed.Then the proposed MINLP framework is applied to a new integrated refining and petrochemical complex.Two scenarios are investigated in the case study to explore the effect of steam main temperatures on system configurations and operating parameters.By optimizing the main temperatures,a TAC of$2.7 million can be saved.Judging from the results of the two scenarios,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed framework for the design and optimization of multiple interconnected utility systems have been demonstrated.

Economic principles and fundamental model of the sustainable utilization of ecological resources

By analyzing the basic rules and measurement principles of the sustainable utilization of ecological. resources and constructing its mathematical model this paper points out that the sustainable utilization of ecological resources is in nature to use the double-period model thousands of times for the dynamic distribution of ecological resources effectively. And it points out that in order to realize the sustainable utilization of ecological resources we must follow the basw principle-non-decreasing ecological capital and put forward corresponding standards, measures, policies and proposals.

Predictive Modeling of Gas Production, Utilization and Flaring in Nigeria using TSRM and TSNN: A Comparative Approach

Since the discovery of oil and gas in Nigeria in 1956, much gas has been flared because the operators pay little or no concern to its utilization, and as such, trillions of dollars have been lost. In this paper, a model is proposed using Time Series Regression Model (TSRM) and Time Series Neural Network (TSNN) to model the production, utilization and flaring of natural gas in Nigeria with the ultimate aim of observing the trend of each activity. The results show that TSNN has better predictive and forecasting capabilities compared to TSRN. It is also observed that the higher the hidden neurons, the lower the error generated by the TSNN.

Integration of Digital Technologies into Underground Utility Asset Management

Installation, detection, maintenance, mapping, and management of underground utility assets present challenges to owners, engineers and contractors. Industry-wide practices include the use of geophysical and similar technologies to determine depth and location, and 2D as-built plans integrated with GIS databases for information management. The feasibility of incorporating 3D BIM models of the subsurface to replace the 2D plans to improve visualization and data management is examined in this paper. Obtaining an accurate image of the underground infrastructure would help minimize excavation accidents due to equipment-utility collisions and prevent property damage. Further, the inclusion of automated data collection and sharing features realized through BIM technology can enhance operations of smart cities. The research methodology consists of a state-of-the-art review of the current underground utility management systems, combined with statistical analysis of survey responses received from utility providers and one-call centers in the U.S. Three categories of utility practices are identified based on the level of digital technology integration. It is found that a vast majority of utility firms have adopted GIS databases with 2D plans, depth and other asset information, while a smaller percentage of providers have achieved full GIS-BIM integration, incorporating a wide range of asset data. Future progress on broader implementation appears to be constrained by the digital literacy of personnel and high costs of technology acquisition and application. A three-step framework for converting 2D plans to 3D BIM models is also presented and discussed. The process model proposed for this purpose allows the utilization of commercially available software with minimal need for additional coding.

New Utilization Model of Karst Rocky Desertified Land in Southwest China:Ecological Planting of Dendrobium officinale Kimura et Migo on Bare Rocky Mountains

The Yunnan-Guangxi-Guizhou rocky desertified area in southwestern China is one of the contiguous extremely poor areas identified in the Outline of Poverty Alleviation and Development in the Rural Areas of China(2011-2020).In rocky desertified areas,due to long-term severe soil erosion,large areas of bedrock are exposed or gravels are accumulated.This bare rock and gravel-mulched land has become the main land type in the rocky mountains.Under normal circumstances,it cannot be directly used for agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fishery production,and is classified as land that is difficult to be utilized.In recent years,in Debao County,Baise City,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,as a deeply impoverished county in the Yunnan-Guangxi-Guizhou rocky desertified area,a new land use model of karst rocky desertified land,that is,planting Dendrobium officinale Kimura et Migo on bare rocky ground,has emerged,and certain poverty alleviation benefits have been achieved initially.In this article,on the basis of analyzing the suitability of planting D.officinale Kimura et Migo on karst rocky desertified land,the practice of planning D.officinale Kimura et Migo on the rocky desertified land in Debao County was elucidated,and then suggestions for reasonable promotion of ecological planting of D.officinale Kimura et Migo in karst rocky desertified areas were put forward.

Follow the nevus: the cost-utility of monitoring for growth of choroidal nevi

AIM: To develop a model to evaluate the cost-utility of choroidal nevi monitoring recommendations with varying clinical risk factors.METHODS: A Markov model was created to evaluate the cost-utility in cost per quality-adjusted life-year($/QALY) for monitoring patients with choroidal nevus. This probabilistic model was applied both to a hypothetically monitored and unmonitored group of patients beginning at different ages and with varying clinical risk factors of the nevus. Duration of screening was modeled for the remainder of the patients’ life expectancy. Best available clinical data on the prevalence and incidence of choroidal nevi/melanoma, and relative risk of nevus transformation were combined with the initial and downstream costs of screening, downstream costs of melanoma-related mortality, and QALY saved by monitoring, to estimate the best monitoring regimen. Main outcome measures were average $/QALY saved by consensus recommended monitoring scenarios for the duration of a patient’s remaining life expectancy in comparison with no follow-up, and the cost-utility of modified regimens. RESULTS: The $/QALY of the recommended monitoring scenarios varied substantially based on nevus clinical risk factors, patient age, frequency of follow-up, and objective testing utilized. The $/QALY for the recommended monitoring scenario of a flat nevus without risk factors in a 60-yearold patient was $77 180. The $/QALY for monitoring a nevus with 3 clinical risk factors in a 60-year-old patient was $85 393. The $/QALY values for differently-aged patients were larger, and intermediate degrees of risk factors for nevus growth varied, depending largely upon the specifics of the modeled monitoring scenarios.CONCLUSION: The average $/QALY of currently recommended monitoring scenarios fall within economically acceptable standards and could provide insight for formulating appropriate clinical strategies. Cost-utility could be enhanced by targeting higher risk groups and considering less frequent monitoring for the lower risk groups.

The Impact of Multimorbidity on Healthcare Utilization and Expenditure:Evidence from China

Objective To investigate the impact of multimorbidity on China’s healthcare utilization and expenditure.Methods A two-part model was used to analyze the outpatient cares based on the data from CHARLS 2015 wave.Results and Conclusion As the prevalence of multimorbidity was 36.6%among 15523 middle-aged and elderly respondents in China,the multimorbidity increased the likelihood of outpatient service,while the total outpatient expenditure did not increase significantly as well as the OOP expenditure.Secondly,although there was a similar probability of outpatient visit,the patients with multimorbidity excluding diabetes and(or)hypertension,had not been concerned by China’s Chronic Condition Management Programs(CCCMP)yet.Thirdly,the patients with multimorbidity increased the outpatient visits to different types of hospitals.Under CCCMP intervention,the patients did not switch from the county/city hospital to primary healthcare centers and township hospital.A costeffective strategy for providing services to patients with multimorbid conditions is needed,the focus of CCCMP should be switched from the single chronic disease to the multimorbidity.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Nivolumab plus Chemotherapy in the First-Line Treatment of Upper Gastrointestinal Adenocarcinoma

Objective: To evaluate the cost-utility of nivolumab plus chemotherapy compared with chemotherapy alone as the first-line treatment for advanced gastric, gastro-oesophageal junction, and esophageal adenocarcinoma in China. Methods: Based on CheckMate649, a partitioned survival model was carried out with a circulation cycle of 6 weeks to simulate the patient’s lifetime. Sensitivity analysis were adopted to verify the robustness of the results. Results: The results of the base-case analysis showed that both the total cost and utility of the nivolumab group were higher, and the ICUR value was CNY 267498.67/QALY, more than 3 times the GDP per capita of China in 2020. The results of deterministic sensitivity analysis indicated that the three most influential factors were the utility value of PFS state, the cost of nivolumab and the discount rate. The results of probabilistic sensitivity analysis were consistent with those of base-case analysis, proving that the results were robust. The scenario analysis illustrated that economical price of nivolumab was CNY 3652.71. Conclusions: Under the willing-to-pay threshold of three times the GDP per capita of China in 2020, compared with chemotherapy alone, nivolumab plus chemotherapy is not a cost-effective option in China.

“一带一路”倡议下实用新型制度的国际协调

“一带一路”倡议提出以来已逾十载,我国在这一过程中逐渐具备了规则创新的能力与契机,该种创新可由缺乏国际协调的实用新型制度先行。“一带一路”共建国家以及沿线区域性知识产权组织存在实用新型制度本土化的立法基础、改革经验及协调实践,考虑实用新型制度在保护渐进式创新、维护共建发展中国家利益、提升知识产权国际博弈话语权等方面所发挥的作用,我国应当推行从软法到硬法的实用新型国际协调行动。包括但非限于借助“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛发起协调倡议、倡导由世界知识产权组织出台《实用新型示范法》、借鉴欧盟的开放协调机制进行规则协商等,并将实用新型制度引入更多双边、多边贸易协定谈判场景。

Optimal Risk Sharing for Maxmin Choquet Expected Utility Model

This article analyzes the Pareto optimal allocations,agreeable trades and agreeable bets under the maxmin Choquet expected utility(MCEU)model.We provide several useful characterizations for Pareto optimal allocations for risk averse agents.We derive the formulation descriptions for non-existence agreeable trades or agreeable bets for risk neutral agents.We build some relationships between ex-ante stage and interim stage on agreeable trades or bets when new information arrives.

Mutual optimization of water utilization structure and industrial structure in arid inland river basins of Northwest China

Water is a key restricting factor of the economic development and eco-environmental protection in arid inland river basins of Northwest China. Although water supplies are short, the water utilization structure and the corresponding industrial structure are unbalanced. We constructed a System Dynamic Model for mutual optimization based on the mechanism of their interaction. This model is applied to the Heihe River Basin where the share of limited water resources among ecosystem, production and human living is optimized. Results show that, by mutual optimization, the water utilization structure and the industrial structures fit in with each other. And the relationships between the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin can be harmonized. Mutual benefits of ecology, society and economy can be reached, and a sustainable ecology-production-living system can be obtained. This study gives a new insight and method for the sustainable utilization of water resources in arid inland river basins.

Modeling and Optimization of the Steam Turbine Network of an Ethylene Plant

In this paper,we developed a hybrid model for the steam turbines of a utility system,which combines an improved neural network model with the thermodynamic model.Then,a nonlinear programming(NLP) model of the steam turbine network is formulated by utilizing the developed steam turbine models to minimize the total steam cost for the whole steam turbine network.Finally,this model is applied to optimize the steam turbine network of an ethylene plant.The obtained results demonstrate that this hybrid model can accurately estimate and evaluate the performance of steam turbines,and the significant cost savings can be made by optimizing the steam turbine network operation at no capital cost.

Attractive Model and Marketing Implications of Theme Shopping Tourism Destination

This paper discusses the definition and connotation of Theme Shopping Tourism(TST) destination,and reveals the attractive distance of TST destination based on the utility function derived from the supposed demand function.An attractive model is deduced.According to this attractive model,it is can be known that the attractive distance is related to the price difference of the theme commodities between TST destination and tourist origin place,the average expenditure of transport,the demand elasticity of price,the actual price of sightseeing spot,the critical price that a tourist will afford,the number of nights that a tourist stays on the TST destination and the price level of accommodation in the TST destination.The change mechanism of attractive distance of TST destinations is revealed in this paper,and implications on TST marketing are put forward.First,theme commodities should be luxuries.Second,lower price is the primary pulling factor of theme shopping tourism.Third,the route combining with sightseeing spots is beneficial to shopping tourism.At last,TST development is one way of rejuvenating the falling destinations.

Simulation study of supercritical carbon dioxide jet fracturing for carbonate geothermal reservoir based on fluid-thermo-mechanical coupling model

Geothermal energy is a kind of renewable,sustainable and clean energy resource.Geothermal energy is abundant in carbonate reservoirs.However,low matrix permeability limits its exploitation.The super-critical carbon dioxide(SC-CO_(2))jet fracturing is expected to efficiently stimulate the carbonate geothermal reservoirs and achieve the storage of CO_(2) simultaneously.In this paper,we established a transient seepage and fluid-thermo-mechanical coupled model to analyze the impact performance of sc-CO_(2) jet fracturing.The mesh-based parallel code coupling interface was employed to couple the fluid and solid domains by exchanging the data through the mesh interface.The physical properties change of sC-CO_(2) with temperature were considered in the numerical model.Results showed that SC-CO_(2) jet frac-turing is superior to water-jet fracturing with respect to jetting velocity,particle trajectory and pene-trability.Besides,stress distribution on the carbonate rock showed that the tensile and shear failure would more easily occur by SC-CO_(2) jet than that by water jet.Moreover,pressure and temperature control the jet field and seepage field of sC-CO_(2) simultaneously.Increasing the jet temperature can effectively enhance the impingement effect and seepage process by decreasing the viscosity and density of SC-CO_(2).The key findings are expected to provide a theoretical basis and design reference for applying SC-CO_(2) jet fracturing in carbonate geothermal reservoirs.