Utilizing Bayesian Modeling and MCMC for Accurate Characterization of Naturally Occurring Radionuclides Reference Background Levels in Mining Areas

Statistical biases may be introduced by imprecisely quantifying background radiation reference levels. It is, therefore, imperative to devise a simple, adaptable approach for precisely describing the reference background levels of naturally occurring radionuclides (NOR) in mining sites. As a substitute statistical method, we suggest using Bayesian modeling in this work to examine the spatial distribution of NOR. For naturally occurring gamma-induced radionuclides like 232Th, 40K, and 238U, statistical parameters are inferred using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. After obtaining an accurate subsample using bootstrapping, we exclude any possible outliers that fall outside of the Highest Density Interval (HDI). We use MCMC to build a Bayesian model with the resampled data and make predictions about the posterior distribution of radionuclides produced by gamma irradiation. This method offers a strong and dependable way to describe NOR reference background values, which is important for managing and evaluating radiation risks in mining contexts.

Modeling of Gate Tunneling Current for Nanoscale MOSFETs with High-k Gate Stacks

A quantum model based on solutions to the Schrodinger-Poisson equations is developed to investigate the device behavior related togate tunneling current for nanoscale MOSFETs with high-k gate stacks. This model can model various MOS device structures with combinations of high-k dielectric materials and multilayer gate stacks,revealing quantum effects on the device performance. Comparisons are made for gate current behavior between nMOSFET and pMOSFET high- k gate stack structures. The results presented are consistent with experimental data, whereas a new finding for an optimum nitrogen content in HfSiON gate dielectric requires further experimental verifications.

基于邻域K-shell分布的关键节点识别方法

复杂网络中关键节点的精准识别对于网络结构稳定和信息传播起着至关重要的作用。传统K-shell方法仅通过节点在网络中所处位置对节点的重要性进行评估,导致区分度不高。基于此,综合考虑了节点的全局信息和局部信息对节点重要性的影响,提出一种基于邻域K-shell分布的关键节点识别方法。该方法通过节点邻域Ks值定义节点的熵,从而反映邻居节点的K-shell分布特征。通过11个网络数据集上的仿真实验,验证了所提方法能够更准确地识别并区分复杂网络中的关键节点。

基于改进N-K模型的地铁盾构掘进安全风险耦合研究

为预防和控制地铁盾构掘进施工过程中的关键安全风险,并精准判断哪些风险耦合情境是导致事故发生的显著情境,提出改进N-K模型研究地铁盾构掘进安全风险耦合;综合运用文献研究、事故案例、专家访谈等方法,辨识地铁盾构掘进的关键安全风险因素;基于N-K模型提出新的地铁盾构掘进安全风险耦合评估模型,并选用安全事故案例验证该模型的适用性。结果表明:辨识得到地铁盾构掘进关键安全风险因素清单,包括4类一级风险因素,21个二级风险因素;地铁盾构掘进施工安全风险随着耦合因素种类的增加而变大,4因素风险耦合值最高,3因素风险耦合值次之,双因素风险耦合值最低,作业人员安全意识薄弱和机械故障参与作用的耦合情境更容易发生安全事故。

基于DEMATEL/N-K的机坪管制系统运行风险因素耦合分析

为了分析机坪管制系统风险因素的耦合性,将决策实验室分析(DEMATEL)模型与N-K模型相结合形成新的风险因素耦合分析模型。首先,利用N-K模型对2017—2019年机坪管制运行不安全事件进行耦合分析,计算不同耦合方式的耦合值;然后,利用DEMATEL模型计算安全风险因素的影响度和被影响度,确定要素的中心度排序,通过DEMATEL模型得到的综合影响矩阵计算可达矩阵,用来分析风险因素的可达性,最后,利用风险因素耦合值对各风险节点的中心度进行修正,获得关键的风险因素。基于实际运行数据,通过DEMATEL/N-K模型分析机坪管制系统的关键风险因素。结果表明,人为因素和机械因素之间的耦合程度明显更高,即更容易导致事故的发生,其中地面保障人员操作出错或未有效观察航空器造成航空器或地面保障设备故障是重点防控的对象。此外,在夜晚或雨天等视线条件下工作,更容易发生不安全事件,应当采取措施控制此类风险。

基于K-means算法的建筑群震害分析模型缩减方法

基于建筑群模型和弹塑性时程分析的精细化城市震害模拟技术能够为防震减灾及应急救援决策提供必要的依据和参考。为了减小城市建筑群震害模拟的计算量和计算时间,本文提出一种基于聚类算法的建筑群模型缩减方法。该方法采用K-means聚类算法,首先基于建筑结构属性向量对建筑群进行聚类,将相似的建筑结构聚为一组;然后从每组选取一个代表建筑组成建筑群缩减模型,通过减少需要分析的建筑结构数量来减少建筑群震害模拟的计算量。本文对传统的K-means算法进行改进,通过设定组内建筑结构的差异上限自动调整聚类分组数量;提出将具体地震动作用下结构地震损伤指数作为结构属性向量进行聚类,并通过算例对比分别采用两种缩减模型,即基于损伤指数聚类的缩减模型与基于结构力学模型参数聚类的缩减模型,计算结构损伤状态准确程度。对比结果表明:在聚类分组数量相同的情况下,基于损伤指数的分组明显优于基于模型参数的分组,采用模型缩减方法能够在保证足够计算精度前提下显著减少建筑群震害模拟计算量和计算时间。

Study of a Novel Antiosteoporosis Screening Model Targeted on Cathepsin K

Objective To establish an effective assay to access the effects of natural products on cathepsin K for screening antiosteoporosis drugs. Methods To obtain the purified cathepsin K, we cloned the target fragment from the mRNA of human osteosacoma cell line MG63 and demonstrated its correctness through DNA sequencing. Cathepsin K was expressed in a high amount in E.coli after IPTG induction, and was purified to near homogenetity through resolution and column purification. The specificity of the protein was shown by Western blotting experiment. The biological activity of the components in the fermentation broth was assayed by their inhibitory effects on cathepsin K and its analog papain. Results With the inhibition of papain activity as a screen index, the fermentation samples of one thousand strains of fungi were tested and 9 strains among them showed strong inhibitory effects. The crude products of the fermentation broth were tested for their specific inhibitory effects on the purified human cathepsin K, the product of fungi 2358 shows the highest specificity against cathepsin K. Conclusions The compounds isolated from fungi 2358 show the highest biological activity and are worth further structure elucidation and function characterization.

A Preliminary Study on Dynamics and Models of N,P,K Absorption for High-Yield Cotton

The field experiments were carried out to investigate the dynamics and models of N, P and K absorption for the cotton plants with a lint of 3 000 kg ha-1 in Xinjiang. The main results were as follows: The contents of N, P2O5, K2O in cotton leaves, stems, squares and bolls decreased obviously with the time over the whole growth duration and the falling extent was greater in high-yield cotton than in CK. Contents of N in leaves, squares and bolls, in particular in the leaves of fruit-bearing shoot was higher in high-yield cotton than in CK. Contents of P2O5 in squares and bolls and that of K2O in stems were higher in high-yield cotton than in CK during the whole growing period. The accumulations of N, P2O5 and K2O in the cotton plants could be described with a logistic curve equation. There was the fastest nutrient uptake at about 90 d for N, 92 d for P2O5 and 85 d for K2O after emergence, respectively. Total nutrient accumulation of N, P2O5 and K2O was 385.8, 244. 7 and 340.3 kg ha-1, respectively. Approximately 12. 5 kg N, 8. 0 kg P2O5 and 11.1 kg K2O were needed for producing 100 kg lint with the leaves and stems under the super high yield condition of 3 000 kg ha-1 in Xinjiang.

老年人家庭代际关系模式及其影响因素研究——基于代际双向报告的K均值聚类分析

在传统的代际关系模式研究中,数据往往来自家庭中父母或子女一方的报告,然而仅凭借“一面之词”对代际关系进行测量真的准确吗?这一问题的背后透视出当前国内相关研究中双向报告视角的缺失。利用2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,运用K均值聚类分析及多层Logistic回归方法,探究当前中国老年人家庭中代际关系的双向报告状况、代际关系模式及其影响因素。研究结果表明:首先,老年父母的代际关系报告平均得分要略低于成年子女的报告平均得分,但两者间并不存在显著差异,代际利益假说未获支持。其次,基于双向报告的聚类结果,可将老年人家庭代际关系具体划分为结构维度上的“亲子一致型”、“亲近子疏型”、“亲疏子近型”模式与水平维度上的“亲子和睦型”、“亲子有隙型”、“亲子疏离型”模式。最后,从代际关系模式的影响因素来看,代际结构、老年父母特征及成年子女特征均会在结构维度与水平维度上产生显著影响,而家庭特征仅在水平维度上产生显著影响。简言之,两代人的年龄差距越大、父母年龄越小、子女年龄越大,越可能形成评价一致的代际关系;两代人的年龄差距越大、两代人的性别一致、父母年龄越小、父母获得子女支持以及在城镇家庭中,越可能形成和睦的代际关系。

融合N-K模型的复杂网络船舶自沉事故风险因素耦合分析

为定量分析船舶自沉风险因素间的影响关系,识别导致船舶自沉事故的关键因素,科学预防事故的发生,引入融合N-K模型的复杂网络研究船舶自沉事故风险耦合。首先结合中国海事局公布的136起船舶自沉事故案例,分析事故致因,将船舶自沉事故风险因素归纳为4个一级风险因素和15个二级风险因素,运用N-K模型计算出一级风险因素风险耦合的发生概率和风险值;然后,以二级风险因素为节点、致因关联为边,构建危险因子的关联网络,通过风险可达性分析和网络节点中心度分析,探究危险因子的作用机制,对危险因子进行初步识别,并以N-K模型计算的耦合值对节点中心度进行改进,获得最终的关键风险因素;最后,挖掘船舶自沉事故致因网络的凝聚子群并进行分析,得到密度矩阵,确定风险关联性最强的二级风险因素,以期从事故源头上采取有效措施,为船舶自沉事故的科学预防提供有益参考。结果表明:船舶自沉事故的发生与风险耦合值成正比,耦合因素越多则风险值越大;人的因素和船舶因素风险耦合易导致船舶自沉事故;导致船舶自沉事故的关键风险因素为安全意识淡薄、公司未履责、船舶管理不到位、公司管理不到位、船舶故障、船舶不适航,其中安全意识淡薄与其他风险关联性最大,须重点防范。

Comparative study on forming limit prediction of AA7075-T6 sheet with M−K model and Lou−Huh criterion

In order to effectively predict the fracture of AA7075-T6 sheet, the forming limit curves of AA7075-T6 high-strength sheet were drawn according to Morciniak Kuczyski (M K) model and Lou Huh criterion, respectively. The errors between the predicted values of the two theoretical prediction models and experimental values were calculated by error analysis. The forming limit curves were verified by the punch stretch test to evaluate the prediction accuracy of M K model and Lou Huh criterion. The error analysis results show that the mean error of Lou Huh criterion with the optimal parameters for all tensile specimens is 25.04%, while the mean error of M K model for all tensile specimens is 74.24%. The prediction accuracy of Lou Huh criterion in predicting the fracture of AA7075-T6 sheet is higher. The punch stretch test results show that the forming limit curve drawn by Lou Huh criterion can effectively predict the fracture of AA7075-T6 sheet, but the prediction accuracy of M K model is relatively poor.

海洋石油工程固定式导管架平台T/K/Y节点马鞍口建模

海洋石油工程固定式导管架是海上油气资源开采的重要设施,是由钢管相贯焊接形成的空间桁架结构。导管架的主要焊接结构是T/K/Y节点,T/K/Y节点中存在大量的马鞍口结构。目前,对马鞍口的加工及焊接主要以二维图样贴片为主,尚无软件可实现管节点马鞍口的参数化三维建模。在分析马鞍口相贯线机理的基础上,建立马鞍口相贯线的数学模型,并基于此利用Unity3D编写了绘制马鞍口相贯线的通用软件,实现了马鞍口的参数化三维建模,有效解决了实际生产中T/K/Y节点马鞍口难以建模的问题,为管节点马鞍口的加工及智能焊接提供精确的模型。

Water Quality Evaluation in Tidal River Reaches of Liaohe River Estuary, China Using a Revised QUAL2K Model

Rivers in the Liaohe River Estuary area have been seriously polluted by discharges of wastewater containing petroleum pol- lutants and nutrients. In this paper, The Enhanced Stream Water Quality Model （QUAL2K） and its revised model as well as One-dimensional Tide Mean Model （1D model） were applied to predict and assess the water quality of the tidal fiver reach of the Liaohe River Estuary. Dissolved oxygen （DO）, biochemical oxygen demand （BODs）, ammonia nitrogen （NH3-N） and total phosphorus （TP） were chosen as water quality indices in the two model simulations. The modelled results show that the major reasons for degraded rivers remain petroleum and non-point source pollution. Tidal water also has a critical effect on the variation of water quality. The sensitivity analysis identifies that flow rate, point load and diffuse load are the most sensitive parameters for the four water quality indices in the revised QUAL2K simulation. Uncertainty analysis based on a Monte Carlo simulation gives the probability distribution of the four wa- ter quality indices at two locations （6.50 km and 44.84 km from the river mouth）. The statistical outcomes indicate that the observed data fall within the 90% confidence intervals at all sites measured, and show that the revised QUAL2K gives better results in simulating the water quality of a tidal fiver.

Strong ground motion simulation for the 2013 Lushan M_W6.6 earthquake, Sichuan, China, based on the inverted and synthetic slip models

It is well known that quantitative estimation of slip distributions on fault plane is one of the most important issues for earthquake source inversion related to the fault rupture process. The characteristics of slip distribution on the main fault play a fundamental role to control strong ground motion pattern. A large amount of works have also suggested that variable slip models inverted from longer period ground motion recordings are relevant for the prediction of higher frequency ground motions. Zhang et al. （Chin J Geophys 56：1412-1417, 2013） and Wang et al. （Chin J Geophys 56：1408-1411,2013） published their source inversions for the fault rupturing process soon after the April 20, 2013 Lushan earthquake in Sichuan, China. In this study, first, we synthesize two forward source slip models： the value of maximum slip, fault dimension, size, and dimension of major asperities, and comer wave number obtained from Wang＇s model is adopted to constrain the gen- eration of k-2 model and crack model. Next, both inverted and synthetic slip models are employed to simulate the ground motions for the Lushan earthquake based on the stochastic finite-fault method. In addition, for a comparison purpose, a stochastic slip model and another k-2 model （k 2 model II） with 2 times value of comer wave number of the original k-2 model （k 2 model I） are also employed for simulation for Lushan event. The simulated results characterized by Modified Mer- calli Intensity （MMI） show that the source slip models based on the inverted and synthetic slip distributions could capture many basic features associated with the ground motion patterns. Moreover, the simulated MMI distributions reflect the rupture directivity effect and the influence of the shallow velocity structure well. On the other hand, the simulated MMI bystochastic slip model and k 2 model II is apparently higher than observed intensity. By contrast, our simulation results show that the higher frequency ground motion is sensitive to the degree of slip roughness; therefore, we suggest that, for realistic ground- motion simulations due to future earthquake, it is imperative to properly estimate the slip roughness distribution.

k-NN METHOD IN PARTIAL LINEAR MODEL UNDER RANDOM CENSORSHIP

Consider the regression model Y=Xβ+ g(T) + e. Here g is an unknown smoothing function on [0, 1], β is a l-dimensional parameter to be estimated, and e is an unobserved error. When data are randomly censored, the estimators βn* and gn*forβ and g are obtained by using class K and the least square methods. It is shown that βn* is asymptotically normal and gn* achieves the convergent rate O(n-1/3).

Application of Water Quality Model QUAL2K to Model the Dispersion of Pollutants in River Ndarugu, Kenya

Ndarugu River, Kenya, during its course through the different agricultural and industrial areas of Gatundu, Gachororo and Juja farms, receives untreated industrial, domestic and agricultural waste of point source discharges from coffee and tea factories. During wet season the water is also polluted by non-point (diffuse) sources created by runoff carrying soil, fertilizer and pesticide residues from the catchment area. This study involved the calibration of water quality model QUAL2K to predict the water quality of this segment of the river. The model was calibrated and validated for flow discharge (Q), temperature (T&deg), flow velocity (V), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), dissolved oxygen (DO) and nitrate (NO3-N), using data collected and analyzed during field and laboratory measurements done in July and November-December 2013. The model was then used in simulation and its performance was evaluated using statistical criteria based on correlation coefficient (R2) and standard errors (SE) between the observed and simulated data. The model reflected the field data quite well with minor exceptions. In spite of these minor differences between the measured and simulated data set at some points, the calibration and validation results are acceptable especially for developing countries where the financial resources for frequent monitoring works and higher accuracy data analysis are very limited. The water is being polluted by the human activities in the catchment. There is need for proper control of wastewater by various techniques, and preliminary treatment of waste discharges prior to effluent disposal. Management of the watershed is necessary so as to protect the river from the adverse impacts of agricultural activities and save it from further deterioration.

Application of modified k-ω model to predicting cavitating flow in centrifugal pump

Considering the compressibility of the cavity in the cavitating flow, this paper presents a modified k-ω model for predicting the cavitating flow in a centrifugal pump, in which the modified k-ω model and Schnerr-Sauer cavitation model were combined with ANSYS CFX. To evaluate the modified and standard k-co models, numerical simulations were performed with these two models, respectively, and the calculation results were compared with the experimental data. Numerical simulations were executed with three different values of the flow coefficient, and the simulation results of the modified k-ω model showed agreement with most of the experimental data. The cavitating flow in the centrifugal pump obtained by the modified k-ω model at the design flow coefficient of 0.102, was analyzed. When the cavitation number decreases, the cavity initially generates on the suction side of the blade near the leading edge and then expands to the outlet of the impeller, and the decrease of the total pressure coefficient mainly occurs upstream of the impeller passage, while the downstream remains almost unaffected by the development of cavitation.

Expression of calbindin D28K in substantia nigra of model rats with Parkinson disease

BACKGROUND： Previous researches suggested that expression level of calbindin D28K mRNA decreased in substantia nigra （SN） of model rats with Parkinson disease （PD）, and this might be related to the decrease of anti-degeneration potentials of dopaminergic neurons. OBJECTIVE： To observe expression changes of calbindin D28K in SN dopaminergic neurons during their degeneration and death in midbrain of PD model rats. DESIGN： Completely randomized grouping design SETTING： Department of Neurobiology, Xuzhou Medical College MATERIALS＂ A total of 92 healthy male SD rats, with the age of 3 months, weighing 200-250 g, were selected from Experimental Animal Center of Xuzhou Medical College [certification： SCXK （su） 2003-0003]. Calbindin D28K（CB）, tyroxine hydroxylase （TH）, ABC kit, 6-hydroxydopamine （6-OHDA） and Nissl dyes were provided by Sigma Company, and sheep serum was provided by Beijing Zhongshan Company. METHODS： The experiment was carried out in the Neurobiological Center of Xuzhou Medical College from October 2003 to October 2004. ① With lot method, rats were divided into blank control group （n=28）, experimental control group （n=-28） and experimental group （n=36）. Rats in experimental group were injected with 6-OHDA at right corpus striatum for PD modeling; rats in experimental control group were injected with saline at the same site; rats in blank control group did not give any injections.② On the 7^th, 14^th, 21^st and 28^th days, SN segments on right midbrain from every 5 rats in experimental group were fixed, embedded with paraffin and cut into successively coronary pieces. Rats in other two groups were treated with the same methods and then stained with Nissl to show neuronal form. Meanwhile, CB and TH antibodies staining with immunohistochemistry were used to show CB containing dopaminergic neurons and dopaminergic neurons, and cells were calculated and observed under optic microscope. ③ On the 14^th and 28^th days, every 4 rats in experimental group and every 4 rats in control group were selected to obtain their brains and separate SN on the injured side. Western blot was used to detect expression of calbindin D28K, protein band was scanned with imaging equipment, and data were analyzed with LabWorks software. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES：① On the 7^th, 14^th, 21^st and 28^th days, Nissl staining results of SN neurons and immunohistochemical staining results of CB and TH antibodies; ② On the 14^th and 28^th days, Western blot results of calbindin D28K in SN neurons, RESULTS; Among 92 rats, 2 rats in experimental group died after 1 day due to 6-OHDA injection and other 90 rats were involved in the final analysis. ①Nissl staining results： On the 7^th day of 6-OHDA injection, most neuronal somas on right SN pars compacta were shown as deep pycnosis or lysis breakage; on the 14^th and 21^st days, amount of neurons was decreased remarkably; on the 28^th day, most neurons in SN pars compacta disappeared. ② Results of immunohistochemical staining： Amount of positive neurons of calbindin D28K in right SN pars compacta was not changed on the 7^th day after 6-OHDA injection; on the 14^th day, the amount was higher in experimental group than that in both control groups （P 〈 0.01） and was decreased till the 21^st day, but it was still higher than that in the two control groups （P 〈 0.05）; on the 28^th day, positive neurons of calbindin D28K nearly disappeared, and the amount was lower than that in the two control groups （P 〈 0.01）. In addition, on the 7^th day after 6-OHDA injection into corpus striatum, positive TH neurons decreased 24% in right SN, and there was significant difference from that in control groups; on the 14^th, 21^st and 28^th days, positive TH neurons decreased 37%, 46% and 64%, respectively. ③ Western blot results： On the 14＇h day after 6-OHDA injection into corpus striatum, expression of calbindin D28K in right SN was higher in experimental group than that in both control groups （P 〈 0.05）; however, on the 28^th day, the expression was lower than that in the two control groups （P 〈 0.01 ）. CONCLUSION ： During degeneration and death of dopaminergic neurons, CB expression in SN pars compacta increases firstly and decreased gradually.

Application of QUAL2K for Water Quality Modeling of River Ghataprabha （India）

River Ghataprabha, during its course through Belgaum district in Karnataka state （India）, receives untreated domestic waste from Gokak town and other neighboring villages situated on the bank of the river. The present study involves the application of water quality model QUAL2K to predict the water quality of this polluted segment of the river. The model was calibrated and validated for biochemical oxygen demand （BOD）, dissolved oxygen （DO） and total nitrogen （TN） in pre-monsoon season. Data for calibration and validation were obtained after the field and laboratory measurements. The performance of the model was evaluated using statistics based on standard errors （SE） and mean multiplicative errors （MME）. The model represented the field data quite well with some exceptions. In spite of some differences between the measured and simulated data sets at some points, the calibration and validation results are acceptable especially for the developing countries where the financial resources are often limited for frequent monitoring campaigns and higher accuracy data analysis.

基于N-K模型的石化储罐事故风险耦合度分析

为预防石化储罐事故,通过收集212份石化储罐事故报告,将事故风险因素归纳为人为、设备、环境、管理4个类别,利用N-K模型分析事故风险因素之间的耦合作用,并运用N-K模型计算各种耦合模式下的风险耦合度,得出了石化储罐事故风险因素的耦合关系及耦合作用规律。结果表明,随着参与耦合的因素增多,风险耦合值总体呈现上升趋势;人为因素与其它因素耦合更容易导致事故;石化储罐区事故各风险因素之间的耦合作用程度相比其它行业更高。研究结果可为石化企业储罐事故管控提供依据和参考。