An improved typhoon monitoring model based on precipitable water vapor and pressure

The potential of monitoring the movement of typhoons using the precipitable water vapor(PWV) has been confirmed. However, monitoring the movement of typhoon is focused on PWV, making it difficult to describe the movement of a typhoon in detail minutely and resulting in insufficient accuracy. Hence,based on PWV and meteorological data, we propose an improved typhoon monitoring mode. First, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5-derived PWV(ERA5-PWV) and the Global Navigation Satellite System-derived PWV(GNSS-PWV) were compared with the reference radiosonde PWV(RS-PWV). Then, using the PWV and atmospheric parameters derived from ERA5, we discussed the anomalous variations of PWV, pressure(P), precipitation, and wind speed during different typhoons. Finally, we compiled a list of critical factors related to typhoon movement, PWV and P. We developed an improved multi-factor typhoon monitoring mode(IMTM) with different models(i.e.,IMTM-I and IMTM-II) in different cases with a higher density of GNSS observation or only Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) data. The IMTM was evaluated through the reference movement speeds of HATO and Mangkhut from the China Meteorological Observatory Typhoon Network(CMOTN). The results show that the root mean square(RMS) of the IMTM-I is 1.26 km/h based on ERA5-P and ERA5-PWV,and the absolute bias values are mostly within 2 km/h. Compared with the models considering the single factor ERA5-P/ERA5-PWV, the RMS of the IMTM-I is improved by 26.3% and 38.5%, respectively. The IMTM-II model manifests a residual of only 0.35 km/h. Compared with the single-factor model based on GNSS-PWV/P, the residual of the IMTM-II model is reduced by 90.8% and 84.1%, respectively. These results propose that the typhoon movement monitoring approach combining PWV and P has evident advantages over the single-factor model and is expected to supplement traditional typhoon monitoring.

Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and LSTM Model-Based Anomaly Detection for Unannotated Structural Health Monitoring Data in an Immersed Tunnel

Structural Health Monitoring(SHM)systems have become a crucial tool for the operational management of long tunnels.For immersed tunnels exposed to both traffic loads and the effects of the marine environment,efficiently identifying abnormal conditions from the extensive unannotated SHM data presents a significant challenge.This study proposed amodel-based approach for anomaly detection and conducted validation and comparative analysis of two distinct temporal predictive models using SHM data from a real immersed tunnel.Firstly,a dynamic predictive model-based anomaly detectionmethod is proposed,which utilizes a rolling time window for modeling to achieve dynamic prediction.Leveraging the assumption of temporal data similarity,an interval prediction value deviation was employed to determine the abnormality of the data.Subsequently,dynamic predictive models were constructed based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)models.The hyperparameters of these models were optimized and selected using monitoring data from the immersed tunnel,yielding viable static and dynamic predictive models.Finally,the models were applied within the same segment of SHM data,to validate the effectiveness of the anomaly detection approach based on dynamic predictive modeling.A detailed comparative analysis discusses the discrepancies in temporal anomaly detection between the ARIMA-and LSTM-based models.The results demonstrated that the dynamic predictive modelbased anomaly detection approach was effective for dealing with unannotated SHM data.In a comparison between ARIMA and LSTM,it was found that ARIMA demonstrated higher modeling efficiency,rendering it suitable for short-term predictions.In contrast,the LSTM model exhibited greater capacity to capture long-term performance trends and enhanced early warning capabilities,thereby resulting in superior overall performance.

Residual subsidence time series model in mountain area caused by underground mining based on GNSS online monitoring

The residual subsidence caused by underground mining in mountain area has a long subsidence duration time and great potential harm,which seriously threatens the safety of people's production and life in the mining area.Therefore,it is necessary to use appropriate monitoring methods and mathematical models to effectively monitor and predict the residual subsidence caused by underground mining.Compared with traditional level survey and InSAR(Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar)technology,GNSS(Global Navigation Satellite System)online monitoring technology has the advantages of long-term monitoring,high precision and more flexible monitoring methods.The empirical equation method of residual subsidence in mining subsidence is effectively combined with the rock creep equation,which can not only describe the residual subsidence process from the mechanism,but also predict the residual subsidence.Therefore,based on GNSS online monitoring technology,combined with the mining subsidence model of mountain area and adding the correlation coefficient of the compaction degree of caving broken rock and the Kelvin model of rock mechanics,this paper constructs the residual subsidence time series model of arbitrary point on the ground in mountain area.Through the example,the predicted results of the model in the inversion parameter phase and the dynamic prediction phase are compared with the measured data sequence.The results show that the model can carry out effective numerical calculation according to the GNSS monitoring data of any point on the ground,and the model prediction effect is good,which provides a new method for the prediction of residual subsidence in mountain mining.

Continuous glucose monitoring metrics in pregnancy with type 1 diabetes mellitus

Managing diabetes during pregnancy is challenging,given the significant risk it poses for both maternal and foetal health outcomes.While traditional methods involve capillary self-monitoring of blood glucose level monitoring and periodic HbA1c tests,the advent of continuous glucose monitoring(CGM)systems has revolutionized the approach.These devices offer a safe and reliable means of tracking glucose levels in real-time,benefiting both women with diabetes during pregnancy and the healthcare providers.Moreover,CGM systems have shown a low rate of side effects and high feasibility when used in pregnancies complicated by diabetes,especially when paired with continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion pump as hybrid closed loop device.Such a combined approach has been demonstrated to improve overall blood sugar control,lessen the occurrence of preeclampsia and neonatal hypoglycaemia,and minimize the duration of neonatal intensive care unit stays.This paper aims to offer a comprehensive evaluation of CGM metrics specifically tailored for pregnancies impacted by type 1 diabetes mellitus.

Short-term displacement prediction for newly established monitoring slopes based on transfer learning

This study makes a significant progress in addressing the challenges of short-term slope displacement prediction in the Universal Landslide Monitoring Program,an unprecedented disaster mitigation program in China,where lots of newly established monitoring slopes lack sufficient historical deformation data,making it difficult to extract deformation patterns and provide effective predictions which plays a crucial role in the early warning and forecasting of landslide hazards.A slope displacement prediction method based on transfer learning is therefore proposed.Initially,the method transfers the deformation patterns learned from slopes with relatively rich deformation data by a pre-trained model based on a multi-slope integrated dataset to newly established monitoring slopes with limited or even no useful data,thus enabling rapid and efficient predictions for these slopes.Subsequently,as time goes on and monitoring data accumulates,fine-tuning of the pre-trained model for individual slopes can further improve prediction accuracy,enabling continuous optimization of prediction results.A case study indicates that,after being trained on a multi-slope integrated dataset,the TCN-Transformer model can efficiently serve as a pretrained model for displacement prediction at newly established monitoring slopes.The three-day average RMSE is significantly reduced by 34.6%compared to models trained only on individual slope data,and it also successfully predicts the majority of deformation peaks.The fine-tuned model based on accumulated data on the target newly established monitoring slope further reduced the three-day RMSE by 37.2%,demonstrating a considerable predictive accuracy.In conclusion,taking advantage of transfer learning,the proposed slope displacement prediction method effectively utilizes the available data,which enables the rapid deployment and continual refinement of displacement predictions on newly established monitoring slopes.

A study on temperature monitoring method for inverter IGBT based on memory recurrent neural network

The power module of the Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor(IGBT)is the core component of the traction transmission system of high-speed trains.The module's junction temperature is a critical factor in determining device reliability.Existing temperature monitoring methods based on the electro-thermal coupling model have limitations,such as ignoring device interactions and high computational complexity.To address these issues,an analysis of the parameters influencing IGBT failure is conducted,and a temperature monitoring method based on the Macro-Micro Attention Long Short-Term Memory(MMALSTM)recursive neural network is proposed,which takes the forward voltage drop and collector current as features.Compared with the traditional electricalthermal coupling model method,it requires fewer monitoring parameters and eliminates the complex loss calculation and equivalent thermal resistance network establishment process.The simulation model of a highspeed train traction system has been established to explore the accuracy and efficiency of MMALSTM-based prediction methods for IGBT power module junction temperature.The simulation outcomes,which deviate only 3.2% from the theoretical calculation results of the electric-thermal coupling model,confirm the reliability of this approach for predicting the temperature of IGBT power modules.

Establishment of a humanized ST6GAL1 mouse model for influenza research

Background:This study aimed to construct and characterize a humanized influenza mouse model expressing hST6GAL1.Methods:Humanized fragments,consisting of the endothelial cell-specific K18 promoter,human ST6GAL1-encoding gene,and luciferase gene,were microinjected into the fertilized eggs of mice.The manipulated embryos were transferred into the oviducts of pseudopregnant female mice.The offspring were identified using PCR.Mice exhibiting elevated expression of the hST6GAL1 gene were selectively bred for propagation,and in vivo analysis was performed for screening.Expression of the humanized gene was tested by performing immunohistochemical(IHC)analysis.Hematologic and biochemical analyses using the whole blood and serum of humanized hST6GAL1 mice were performed.Results:Successful integration of the human ST6GAL1 gene into the mouse genome led to the overexpression of human SiaT ST6GAL1.Seven mice were identified as carrying copies of the humanized gene,and the in vivo analysis indicated that hST6GAL1gene expression in positive mice mirrored influenza virus infection characteristics.The IHC results revealed that hST6GAL1 was expressed in the lungs of humanized mice.Moreover,the hematologic and biochemical parameters of the positive mice were within the normal range.Conclusion:A humanized influenza mouse model expressing the hST6GAL1 gene was successfully established and characterized.

A blast furnace fault monitoring algorithm with low false alarm rate:Ensemble of greedy dynamic principal component analysis-Gaussian mixture model

The large blast furnace is essential equipment in the process of iron and steel manufacturing. Due to the complex operation process and frequent fluctuations of variables, conventional monitoring methods often bring false alarms. To address the above problem, an ensemble of greedy dynamic principal component analysis-Gaussian mixture model(EGDPCA-GMM) is proposed in this paper. First, PCA-GMM is introduced to deal with the collinearity and the non-Gaussian distribution of blast furnace data.Second, in order to explain the dynamics of data, the greedy algorithm is used to determine the extended variables and their corresponding time lags, so as to avoid introducing unnecessary noise. Then the bagging ensemble is adopted to cooperate with greedy extension to eliminate the randomness brought by the greedy algorithm and further reduce the false alarm rate(FAR) of monitoring results. Finally, the algorithm is applied to the blast furnace of a large iron and steel group in South China to verify performance.Compared with the basic algorithms, the proposed method achieves lowest FAR, while keeping missed alarm rate(MAR) remain stable.

Tidal modeling based on satellite altimetry observations of TOPEX/ Poseidon, Jason1, Jason2, and Jason3 with high prediction capability: A case study of the Baltic Sea

This research aims to optimize the utilization of long-term sea level data from the TOPEX/Poseidon,Jason1,Jason2,and Jason3 altimetry missions for tidal modeling.We generate a time series of along-track observations and apply a developed method to produce tidal models with specific tidal constituents for each location.Our tidal modeling methodology follows an iterative process:partitioning sea surface height(SSH)observations into analysis/training and prediction/validation parts and ultimately identi-fying the set of tidal constituents that provide the best predictions at each time series location.The study focuses on developing 1256 time series along the altimetry tracks over the Baltic Sea,each with its own set of tidal constituents.Verification of the developed tidal models against the sSH observations within the prediction/validation part reveals mean absolute error(MAE)values ranging from 0.0334 m to 0.1349 m,with an average MAE of 0.089 m.The same validation process is conducted on the FES2014 and EOT20 global tidal models,demonstrating that our tidal model,referred to as BT23(short for Baltic Tide 2023),outperforms both models with an average MAE improvement of 0.0417 m and 0.0346 m,respectively.In addition to providing details on the development of the time series and the tidal modeling procedure,we offer the 1256 along-track time series and their associated tidal models as supplementary materials.We encourage the satellite altimetry community to utilize these resources for further research and applications.

Numerical Models and Methods of Atmospheric Parameters Originating in the Formation of the Earth’s Climatic Cycle

Atmospheric models are physical equations based on the ideal gas law. Applied to the atmosphere, this law yields equations for water, vapor (gas), ice, air, humidity, dryness, fire, and heat, thus defining the model of key atmospheric parameters. The distribution of these parameters across the entire planet Earth is the origin of the formation of the climatic cycle, which is a normal climatic variation. To do this, the Earth is divided into eight (8) parts according to the number of key parameters to be defined in a physical representation of the model. Following this distribution, numerical models calculate the constants for the formation of water, vapor, ice, dryness, thermal energy (fire), heat, air, and humidity. These models vary in complexity depending on the indirect trigonometric direction and simplicity in the sum of neighboring models. Note that the constants obtained from the equations yield 275.156˚K (2.006˚C) for water, 273.1596˚K (0.00963˚C) for vapor, 273.1633˚K (0.0133˚C) for ice, 0.00365 in/s for atmospheric dryness, 1.996 in2/s for humidity, 2.993 in2/s for air, 1 J for thermal energy of fire, and 0.9963 J for heat. In summary, this study aims to define the main parameters and natural phenomena contributing to the modification of planetary climate. .

Technical Analysis of Safety Monitoring and Evaluation of Existing Bridge Structures

Bridge structure safety monitoring and assessment has been a great concern for the government and the public,and bridge structure safety monitoring and assessment technology has also developed rapidly over the years.Its goal is to equip relevant organizations and professionals with a deep understanding of the principles and practical applications of these technologies.By doing so,it seeks to facilitate the effective implementation of safety monitoring and assessment practices in bridge management.Ultimately,the aim is to foster the constructive development of road and bridge construction and operational management at a broader level.

Application of Modelica Based Multi- Domain Modeling and Simulation for Gravity-1

In the R&D phase of Gravity-1(YL-1), a multi-domain modeling and simulation technology based on Modelica language was introduced, which was a recent attempt in the practice of modeling and simulation method for launch vehicles in China. It realizes a complex coupling model within a unified model for different domains, so that technologists can work on one model. It ensured the success of YL-1 first launch mission, supports rapid iteration, full validation, and tight design collaboration.

IGCP 641 Project:Mechanisms,Monitoring and Modeling Earth Fissure Generation and Fault Activation due to Subsurface Fluid Exploitation

Ground ruptures(fractures,earth fissures and reactivation of pre-existing surface faults)caused by extraction of fluids from the subsurface have been observed in hundreds of sedimentary basins worldwide,mainly in semiarid to arid areas of the USA,Mexico,China,India,Libya,Iran,and Saudi Arabia.

Application of non-equal interval GM(1,1)model in oil monitoring of internal combustion engine

The basic difference non-equal interval model GM(1,1) in grey theory was used to fit and forecast data series with non-equal lengths and different inertias, acquired from oil monitoring of internal combustion engines. The fitted and forecasted results show that the length or inertia of a sequence affects its precision very much, i.e. the bigger the inertia of a sequence is, or the shorter the length of a series is, the less the errors of fitted and forecasted results are. Based on the research results, it is suggested that short series should be applied to be fitted and forecasted; for longer series, the newer datum should be applied instead of the older datum to be analyzed by non- equalinterval GM(1,1) to improve the forecasted and fitted precision, and that data sequence should be verified to satisfy the conditions of grey forecasting.

基于GF-1数据的耕地土壤镉(Cd)含量遥感估算方法

本文采用多种光谱变换和回归分析方法探索了使用GF-1卫星影像监测耕地土壤镉(Cd)含量的可行性。首先针对获取的GF-1原始影像数据,在完成预处理及剔除植被信息后进行倒对数、平方根和反正弦平方根变换,生成4套光谱影像;然后分别用采样点5 m缓冲区内各套影像光谱统计值与Cd含量进行相关性分析和多种回归分析。选择模型决定系数最高(>95%)的反正弦平方根变换后的自适应重加权回归方法构建的线性回归模型作为遥感估算模型。遥感估算结果在稻田积水、边缘地带等出现了异常估算值;笔者分析原因后应用线性插值的方法得到最终估算结果。相关性分析和建模精度表明该方法是可行的,有望应用于实际土壤质量监测和土地管理中。

基于Sentinel-1/2改进极化指数和纹理特征的土壤含盐量反演模型

目前Sentinel-1/2协同反演植被土壤含盐量的研究大多是基于Sentinel-2光谱信息和Sentinel-1后向散射系数,没有考虑Sentinel-2光谱信息容易受土壤亮度等信息影响,Sentinel-1后向散射系数容易受土壤粗糙度和水分影响。为进一步提高Sentinel-1/2协同反演植被土壤含盐量的精度,用水云模型对雷达卫星后向散射系数进行校正,消除植被影响;然后协同Sentinel-2纹理特征,基于VIP、OOB、PCA 3种变量筛选和RF、ELM、Cubist 3种机器学习回归模型构建植被土壤含盐量反演模型。研究结果表明:经过水云模型去除植被影响后的雷达后向散射系数及其极化组合指数与土壤含盐量的相关性有一定程度的提高。不同变量选择方法与不同机器学习方法耦合模型在反演土壤含盐量中,OOB变量筛选方法与RF、ELM和Cubist 3种机器学习方法的耦合模型精度最佳,建模集和验证集的R2都在0.750以上,且验证集的RMSE和MAE均最小;其中OOB-Cubist耦合模型精度最高,且R_(v)^(2)/R_(c)^(2)为0.955,具有良好的鲁棒性。研究可为机器学习协同物理模型、光学卫星协同雷达卫星在土壤含盐量反演中的进一步应用提供思路。

北京市东城区2009—2019年蝇类生态学监测结果分析及其预测方法探讨

目的 掌握北京市东城区2009—2019年蝇种类、密度、分布及其季节消长规律,探讨基于生态学监测的蝇类密度预测方法,为东城区蝇类预测与科学防控提供依据。方法 收集整理东城区2009—2019年蝇类生态学监测数据并进行分析;利用MATLAB R2018b软件构建的季节性差分自回归移动平均模型(SARIMA)对2019年4—10月的蝇类密度进行预测并与实际监测值进行比较,验证模型预测效果。结果 2009—2019年东城区各生态学监测点蝇类年平均密度为7.09只/笼,优势蝇种为麻蝇科,占捕获蝇总数的56.82%,占比超过5%以上的蝇种类依次为厩腐蝇(11.74%)、家蝇(10.17%)、丝光绿蝇(8.99%)和大头金蝇(6.93%);不同生境中,宾馆饭店蝇类密度最高,为11.86只/笼,餐饮外环境最低,为2.20只/笼,麻蝇科在不同生境中均为优势种群;蝇类密度高峰主要出现在7月和8月。基于历史生态学监测数据构建的最优模型SARIMA(0,1,4)(2,1,3)12预测2019年4—10月的蝇类密度与实际密度基本一致,实际监测值均落在预测值95%置信区间内,模型评价指标均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为1.379和1.014,预测效果较好。结论 2009—2019年北京市东城区以麻蝇科为优势种群,宾馆饭店是蝇类防控的重点场所,活动高峰主要出现在7—8月;通过对SARIMA模型效果评价,该方法可用于蝇类密度短期变化趋势预测。

Oncogenic Wnt3a is a promising sensitive biomarker for monitoring hepatocarcinogenesis

Background:The effective treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)depends on early diagnosis.Previously,the abnormal expression of Wnt3a as the key signaling molecule in the Wnt/β-catenin pathway was found in HCC cells and could be released into the circulation.In this study,we used rat model of hepatocarcinogenesis to dynamically investigate the alteration of oncogenic Wnt3a and to explore its early monitor value for HCC.Methods:Sprague-Dawley rats(SD)were fed with diet 2-fluorenylacetamide(2-FAA,0.05%)for inducing hepatocarcinogenesis,and grouped based on liver morphological alteration by Hematoxylin&Eosin(H&E)staining;rats fed with normal chow were used as normal control(NC).Total RNA and protein were purified from rat livers.Differently expressed genes(DEGs)or Wnt3a m RNA,cellular distribution,and Wnt3a protein levels were analyzed by whole genome microarray with signal logarithm ratio(SLR log 2 cy5/cy3),immunohistochemistry,and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay,respectively.Results:Models of rat hepatocarcinogenesis were successfully established based on liver histopathological H&E staining.Rats were divided into the cell degeneration(r Deg),precancerosis(r Pre-C)and HCC(r HCC)groups.Total numbers of the up-and down-regulated DEGs with SLR≥8 were 55 and 48 in the r Deg group,268 and 57 in the r Pre-C group,and 312 and 201 in the r HCC group,respectively.Significantly altered genes were involved in cell proliferation,signal transduction,tumor metastasis,and apoptosis.Compared with the NC group,Wnt3a m RNA was increased by 4.6 folds(P<0.001)in the r Deg group,7.4 folds(P<0.001)in the r Pre-C group,and 10.4 folds(P<0.001)in the r HCC group;the positive rates of liver Wnt3a were 66.7%(P=0.001)in the r Deg group,100%(P<0.001)in the r Pre-C group,and 100%(P<0.001)in the r HCC group,respectively.Also,there were significant differences of liver Wnt3a(P<0.001)or serum Wnt3a(P<0.001)among different groups.Conclusions:Overexpression of Wnt3a was associated with rat hepatocarcinogenesis and it should be expected to be a promising monitoring biomarker for HCC occurrence at early stage.

基于新型“1+X+N”人才培养模式的一流本科课程建设探索

为了适应时代的发展需求,响应国务院提出的在应用型本科高校启动“学历证书+若干职业技能等级证书”制度(即“1+X”证书制度)的试点工作,民办本科院校积极探索“1+X+N”人才培养新模式。在人才培养新模式下,省级一流本科课程光纤通信技术课程组从明确课程定位、推动教学改革、加大资源建设、优化教学内容与实施过程、推进课程思政、改善课程成绩评定等方面开展工作,努力提升学生在光纤通信方面的综合应用能力,培养出满足新时代通信发展需求的高质量人才。

1+X证书制度背景下“育训结合、能力递进、书证融通”育人模式的探索与实践

2019年《国家职业教育改革实施方案》要求启动“学历证书+若干职业技能等级证书”制度。文章基于“1+X”证书制度下的书证融通在实施过程中存在的问题,从模块化课程体系构建、信息化资源与教材开发、平台搭建、师资队伍建设、考核评价体系、体制机制保障等方面开展研究,逐步构建学生、学校、行业、企业、社会多方共赢的良好局面,为实现新时代中国职业教育事业的全面优质发展奠定基础。