The Maintenance of the Blocking over the Ural Mountains during the Second Meiyu Period in the Summer of 1998

The 1998 summer-time floods at the Yangtze River basin of China, the severest in last 50 years or so, directly resulted from the abnormal extension of Meiyu (rainy season), which was related to a weak East Asian summer monsoon and persistent anomalies of extratropical circulation. The long persistence of blocking over the Ural Mountains is a conspicuous feature. The physical processes responsible for the prolonged maintenance of this key system are investigated in terms of internal forcing (transient eddy upon basic flow) and external forcing (tropical heating forcing) via diagnosis and numerical experiments in the paper. Using the adjoint method, the location and structure of optimal perturbations favorable for the development and maintenance of Ural blocking are identified, which shows an apparent coincidence with the observed storm track at the eastern Atlantic to Europe sector. The diagnosis of E-vector and the response of baroclinic stationary wave to transient forcing both suggest further that the enhanced transient eddy activity favors the occurrence and maintenance of positive anomalies. The upper-level jet and heat sources (sinks) during that period are calculated, and the results indicate that the anomaly of upper jet and tropical heating is evident. The ensemble forecasting experiments by a GCM, IAP T42L9 show that the anomalous heating over the tropics, especially over the central-western Pacific and Atlantic, favors the formation of positive anomalies of height at the Ural region. Finally, a self-sustain mechanism of positive anomalies through two-way interaction between planetary stationary wave and transient eddy under the stimulation of anomalous tropical heating is proposed.

A Monitoring Study of the 1998 Rainstorm along the Yangtze River of China by Using TIPEX Data

By using data from the Secondary Tibetan Plateau Science Experiment (TIPEX) in 1998, including enhanced soundings, surface observations, data from captive balloons, remote sensing, and Doppler radar (China and Japan cooperative study of GAME/ Tibet), a monitoring study on the generation and moving track of the cumulus convective systems over the Tibetan Plateau is made, and the relationship between the evolution of cloud systems over the Tibetan Plateau and 1998 flooding in China is studied. The results are as follows. 1) Analyzing the image animation and Hovmoller diagram of satellite TBB data shows that the rainstorms for the Yangtze River in the last ten days of July 1998 can be tracked regionally to the Tibetan Plateau. 2) For the period of cloud clusters passing through the Amdo station (18–19 July), monitoring observations by Doppler radar is made. The monitoring of radar echoes shows that the developing, eastward motion, and strengthening of the echoes can be frequently observed in the middle of the Tibetan Plateau. An integrated analysis and tracking of the generation, disappearance, development, and eastward motion of these convective systems by using multiple instruments is very valuable for diagnosing and predicting the influence of the plateau systems on the downstream weather situation. 3) The integrated analysis of space-time cross sections of the enhanced upper air and surface observations from TIPEX during the intensified observation period shows that the frequent development of convective clouds over the Tibetan Plateau is related with the quasi-stationary convergence of surface winds. The dynamic convergence of surface winds, the vertical shear in the upper air, and transportation of water vapor due to increasing humidity over the Tibetan Plateau played an important role in the developing and strengthening of rainstorms over the Yangtze River in 1998. 4) Meso-sale filtration analysis of the vertical distribution of water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau indicates that alternating changes of high and low water vapor distribution over the Tibetan Plateau reveals clearly that the sub-synoptic scale waves exist, whose lifetime is on the order of the hours. The revelation of the eastward motion of mesoscale waves from the Tibetan Plateau indicates that the plateau systems obviously influenced the rainstorms over the Yangtze River valley in 1998.

Analysis of the Characteristics of 30-60 Day Low-Frequency Oscillation over Asia during 1998 SCSMEX

The wavelet analysis is performed of the mid- and low-latitude circulation index at 850 hPa over East Asia, the East Asian monsoon index and the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1998 South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) from May to August. Analysis shows that distinct 30-60 day low-frequency oscillation (LFO) exists in all of the above elements during the experiment period. Analysis of low-frequency wind field at 850 hPa from May to August with 5 days interval is performed in this Paper. Analysis results reveal that: (l ) A low-frequency monsoon circulation system over East Asia, characterized by distinct 30-60 day low-frequency oscillation, exists over 100°-150°E of East Asian area from the middle and eastern parts of China continent and the South China Sea to the western Pacific in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. The activity of East Asian monsoon is mainly affected by the low-frequency systems in it; (2) All of the tropical monsoon onset over the South China Sea in the fifth pentad of May, the beginning of the Meiyu period and heavy rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in mid-June and the heavy rainfall after mid-July are related to the activity of low-frequency cyclone belt over the region, whereas the torrential rainfall over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in August is associated with the westward propagation of low-frequency anticyclone into the mainland; (3) There are two sources of low-frequency oscillation system over East Asia during SCSMEX. i.e. the equatorial South China Sea (SCS) and mid-high latitudes of the middle Pacific in the Northern Hemisphere. The low-frequency system over SCS propagates northward while that in mid-high latitudes mainly propagates from northeast to southwest. Both of the heavy rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in June and July are associated with the northward propagation of the above-mentioned SCS low-frequency systems from the tropical region and the southwestward propagation from mid-high latitudes respectively and their convergence in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; (4) There are two activities of low-frequency cyclone and anticyclone belt each in the East Asian monsoon system during May to August. However the activity of these low-frequency circulation systems is not clearly relevant to the low-frequency circulation system in the indian monsoon system. This means that the low-frequency circulation systems in indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon are independent of each other. The concept previously put forward by Chinese scholars that the East Asian monsoon circulation system (EAMCS) is relatively independent monsoon circulation system is testified once more in the summer 1998.

Runoff Simulation of Three Gorges Area in the Upper Yangtze River during 1998 Flood Season

The contribution of areal precipitation of the catchment from Cuntan toYichang (Three Gorges area) to eight flood peaks of the Upper Yangtze River (the upper reaches ofthe Yangtze River) is diagnosed for 1998 flood season. A rainfall-runoff model is employed tosimulate runoffs of this catchment. Comparison of observed and simulated runoffs shows that therainfall-runoff model has a good capability to simulate the runoff over a large-scale river and theresults describe the eight flood peaks very well. Forecast results are closely associated with thesensitivity of the model to rainfall and the calibration processes. Other reasons leading tosimulation errors are further discussed.