Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ global warming targets

This study investigated the projected changes in the annual mean surface air temperature （SAT） over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ targets, by analyzing the outputs from 22 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, the scope of changes in the average SAT over China is quite narrow and has the largest probability to increase by 1.7-2.0 ℃ under the various RCP pathways, although the time of occurrence of the 1.5 ℃ target has a large spread of 40-60 years. Similarly, the models consistently show that the average SAT over China would most likely increase by 2.4-2.7 ℃ under the 2.0 ℃ target. Furthermore, the warming shows a clear spatial distinction over China： being stronger in the northwest part and weaker in the southeast part. Under all RCP pathways, the SAT over the northwest part would increase by 1.9-2.1 ℃ for the 1.5℃ target, which is much stronger than the SAT increase over the southeast part （1.3-1.5 ℃）. A similar spatial pattern appears for the 2.0 ℃ target.

结合模式性能和独立性加权的全球增暖1.5/2℃下中国区域气候的未来预估

基于耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(CMIP6)中的全球气候模式的模拟结果,采用考虑模式性能和独立性结合(Climate model Weighting by Independence and Performance,ClimWIP)的加权方案进行中国区域气候的多模式集合预估及不确定性研究。结果表明,ClimWIP方案在历史阶段的模拟优于等权重方案,降低了多模式模拟的气候态偏差。温度指数的未来预估不确定性较大的区域主要集中在中国北方和青藏高原,而降水指数主要集中在华北和西北地区。ClimWIP方案的预估不确定性与等权重方案相比有所降低。ClimWIP方案预估的温度指数的增温大值区主要集中在中国北方和青藏高原;降水指数在西北和青藏高原增加最为显著。全球额外0.5℃增暖时,中国区域平均的温度指数变化更强,平均高于全球0.2℃,最低温在东北部分地区的额外增温甚至是全球平均的3倍;总降水额外增加5.2%;强降水额外增加10.5%。全球增暖2℃下,中国大部分区域温度指数较当前气候态增加可能超过1.5℃(概率>50%),在中国北方和青藏高原的部分地区增温超过1.5℃的可能性更大(概率>90%);总降水,强降水和连续干日在西北和华北增加幅度有可能超过10%、25%和-5 d(概率>50%)。

Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming targets

The long-term goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2 ℃above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ℃. However, for climate mitigation and adaption efforts, further studies are still needed to understand the regional consequences between the two global warming limits. Here we provide an assessment of changes in temperature extremes over China （relative to 1986-2005） at 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming levels （relative to 1861-1900） by using the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） models under three RCP scenarios （RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5）. Results show that the increases in mean temperature and temperature extremes over China are greater than that in global mean temperature. With respect to 1986-2005, the temperature of hottest day （TXx） and coldest night （TNn） are projected to increase about 1/1.6 ℃ and 1.1/1.8 ℃, whereas warm days （TX90p） and warm spell duration （WSDI） will increase about 7.5/13.8% and 15/30 d for the 1.5/2 ℃ global warming target, respectively. Under an additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, the projected increases of temperature in warmest day/night and coldest day/night are both more than 0.5 ℃ across almost the whole China. In Northwest China, Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau, the projected changes are particularly sensitive to the additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, for example, multi-model mean increase in coldest day （TXn） and coldest night （TNn） will be about 2 times higher than a change of 0.5 ℃ global warming. Although the area-averaged changes in temperature extremes are very similar for different scenarios, spatial hotspot still exists, such as in Northwest China and North China, the increases in temperatures are apparently larger in RCP8.5 than that in RCP4.5.

To Analyze the Sensitivity of RT-PCR Assays Employing S Gene Target Failure with Whole Genome Sequencing Data during Third Wave by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant

Introduction: Omicron is a highly divergent variant of concern (VOCs) of a severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS-CoV-2. It carries a high number of mutations in its spike protein hence;it is more transmissible in the community by immune evasion mechanisms. Due to mutation within S gene, most Omicron variants have reported S gene target failure (SGTF) with some commercially available PCR kits. Such diagnostic features can be used as markers to screen Omicron. However, Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) is the only gold standard approach to confirm novel microorganisms at genetically level as similar mutations can also be found in other variants that are circulating at low frequencies worldwide. This Retrospective study is aimed to assess RT-PCR sensitivity in the detection of S gene target failure in comparison with whole genome sequencing to detect variants of Omicron. Methods: We have analysed retrospective data of SARS-CoV-2 positive RT-PCR samples for S gene target failure (SGTF) with TaqPath COVID-19 RT-PCR Combo Kit (ThermoFisher) and combined with sequencing technologies to study the emerged pattern of SARS-CoV-2 variants during third wave at the tertiary care centre, Surat. Results: From the first day of December 2021 till the end of February 2022, a total of 321,803 diagnostic RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 were performed, of which 20,566 positive cases were reported at our tertiary care centre with an average cumulative positivity of 6.39% over a period of three months. In the month of December 21 samples characterized by the SGTF (70/129) were suggestive of being infected by the Omicron variant and identified as Omicron (B.1.1.529 lineage) when sequence. In the month of January, we analysed a subset of samples (n = 618) with SGTF (24%) and without SGTF (76%) with Ct values Conclusions: During the COVID-19 pandemic, it took almost more than 15 days to diagnose infection and identify pathogen by sequencing technology. In contrast to that molecular assay provided quick identification with the help of SGTF phenomenon within 5 hours of duration. This strategy helps scientists and health policymakers for the quick isolation and identification of clusters. That ultimately results in a decreased transmission of pathogen among the community.

Efficient 2-D MUSIC algorithm for super-resolution moving target tracking based on an FMCW radar

Frequency modulated continuous wave(FMCW)radar is an advantageous sensor scheme for target estimation and environmental perception.However,existing algorithms based on discrete Fourier transform(DFT),multiple signal classification(MUSIC)and compressed sensing,etc.,cannot achieve both low complexity and high resolution simultaneously.This paper proposes an efficient 2-D MUSIC algorithm for super-resolution target estimation/tracking based on FMCW radar.Firstly,we enhance the efficiency of 2-D MUSIC azimuth-range spectrum estimation by incorporating 2-D DFT and multi-level resolution searching strategy.Secondly,we apply the gradient descent method to tightly integrate the spatial continuity of object motion into spectrum estimation when processing multi-epoch radar data,which improves the efficiency of continuous target tracking.These two approaches have improved the algorithm efficiency by nearly 2-4 orders of magnitude without losing accuracy and resolution.Simulation experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the algorithm in both single-epoch estimation and multi-epoch tracking scenarios.

Targeting nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2-regulated ferroptosis to treat nervous system diseases

By critically examining the work,we conducted a comprehensive bibliometric analysis on the role of nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2(NRF2)in nervous system diseases.We also proposed suggestions for future bibliometric studies,including the integration of multiple websites,analytical tools,and analytical approaches,The findings presented provide compelling evidence that ferroptosis is closely associated with the therapeutic challenges of nervous system diseases.Targeted modulation of NRF2 to regulate ferroptosis holds substantial potential for effectively treating these diseases.Future NRF2-related research should not only focus on discovering new drugs but also on designing rational drug delivery systems.In particular,nanocarriers offer substantial potential for facilitating the clinical translation of NRF2 research and addressing existing issues related to NRF2-related drugs.

Advances in targeted therapy for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 positive in advanced gastric cancer

Emerging therapeutic methods represented by targeted therapy are effective supplements to traditional first-line chemoradiotherapy resistance.Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2(HER2)is one of the most important targets in targeted therapy for gastric cancer.Trastuzumab combined with chemotherapy has been used as the first-line treatment for advanced gastric cancer.The safety and efficacy of pertuzumab and margetuximab in the treatment of gastric cancer have been verified.However,monoclonal antibodies,due to their large molecular weight,inability to penetrate the blood-brain barrier,and drug resistance,lead to decreased therapeutic efficacy,so it is necessary to explore the efficacy of other HER2-targeting therapies in gastric cancer.Small-molecule tyrosine kinase inhibitors,such as lapatinib and pyrrotinib,have the advantages of small molecular weight,penetrating the blood-brain barrier and high oral bioavailability,and are expected to become the drugs of choice for perioperative treatment and neoadjuvant therapy of gastric cancer after validation by large-scale clinical trials in the future.Antibo-drug conjugate,such as T-DM1 and T-DXd,can overcome the resistance of monoclonal antibodies despite their different mechanisms of tumor killing,and are a supplement for the treatment of patients who have failed the treatment of monoclonal antibodies such as trastuzumab.Therefore,after more detailed stratification of gastric cancer patients,various gastric cancer drugs targeting HER2 are expected to play a more significant role.

Targeting neuronal PAS domain protein 2 and KN motif/ankyrin repeat domains 1:Advances in type 2 diabetes therapy

This editorial summarizes the latest literature on the roles of neuronal PAS domain protein 2 and KN motif/ankyrin repeat domain 1 in type 2 diabetes(T2D).We highlight their involvement inβ-cell dysfunction,explore their potential as therapeutic targets,and discuss the implications for new treatment strategies.We offer valuable insights into relevant gene regulation and cellular mechanisms relevant for the targeted management of T2D.

Understanding the link between type 2 diabetes mellitus and Parkinson's disease:role of brain insulin resistance

Type 2 diabetes mellitus and Parkinson's disease are chronic diseases linked to a growing pandemic that affects older adults and causes significant socio-economic burden.Epidemiological data supporting a close relationship between these two aging-related diseases have resulted in the investigation of shared pathophysiological molecular mechanisms.Impaired insulin signaling in the brain has gained increasing attention during the last decade and has been suggested to contribute to the development of Parkinson's disease through the dysregulation of several pathological processes.The contribution of type 2 diabetes mellitus and insulin resistance in neurodegeneration in Parkinson's disease,with emphasis on brain insulin resistance,is extensively discussed in this article and new therapeutic strategies targeting this pathological link are presented and reviewed.

2℃和1.5℃目标对中国国家自主贡献和长期排放路径的影响

在《巴黎协定》设置的混合减排机制下,中国的INDC尽管自主提出,但也受全球气候目标及全球减排进展的影响。本文基于气候公平的不同原则,建立了公平分配未来碳排放空间的综合性框架,并利用最新情景研究数据,分析了2℃和1.5℃目标对中国INDC力度以及长期排放路径的影响。研究结果表明:第一,相比2℃目标,1.5℃目标对本世纪内全球累积碳排放空间、关键时点的减排目标、近期减排力度以及碳中和时间等都提出了更高要求。第二,根据公平分配方案的评估结果表明,2℃目标下,中国现有INDC在责任方案下能够满足减排要求,而在其他方案下存在排放差距。而在1.5℃目标下,中国在四个方案下均无法满足减排要求,且排放差距进一步扩大。第三,2℃和1.5℃目标对中国确定长期排放目标以及碳中和时间,也会产生显著影响。相比2℃目标,1.5℃目标下,中国2050年排放相对2010年下降率需要再增加约15个百分点,实现碳中和的时间需要提前15年左右。因此,中国需要根据公平分配研究给出的提高INDC力度要求的区间,提前准备《巴黎协定》后关于全球盘点和INDC更新议题新一轮谈判的应对策略,同时应尽早启动制定长期低碳发展战略的政策研究进程。

2℃和1.5℃目标下全球碳预算及排放路径

利用截止目前最新的全球情景研究结果,对《巴黎协定》提出的2℃和1.5℃目标下全球碳预算的区间进行分析,并比较了碳预算约束下不同排放路径对关键时间点的减排要求、实现排放峰值及碳中和的时间要求和对负排放技术的需求等方面的影响.结果表明:相对于2℃目标,1.5℃目标下全球剩余碳预算将缩减一半以上,2020年以后需要立刻快速减排,且到21世纪末更依赖于负排放技术的应用;延迟近期(2030年以前)的减排行动,将会使得2030年以后的碳排放空间被压缩,中长期的减排要求提高,2030~2050年间年均减排率增加约1.2%,实现碳中和的时间提前近20a,给未来的低碳转型带来更大困难;全球碳预算可以通过不同的公平分配方案分配到各国,其地区分布与公平分配方案的选择密切相关.排放量分配方案对美欧较为有利,而减排量分配方案对中印较为有利.

2℃全球变暖背景下中国未来气候变化预估

相对于工业化革命前期,全球年平均地表气温上升2℃的时间和相应的气候变化受到了广泛关注,特别是包括欧盟成员国在内的许多国家和国际组织已经将避免2℃全球变暖作为温室气体减排的首要目标。为此,本文作者基于16个气候模式在20世纪气候模拟试验和SRESB1、A1B和A2温室气体和气溶胶排放情景下的数值模拟试验结果,采用多模式集合方法预估研究了2℃全球变暖发生的时间、对应的大气中主要温室气体浓度以及中国气候变化情况。根据模式集合平均结果,三种排放情景下2℃全球变暖分别发生在2064年、2046年和2049年,大气二氧化碳当量浓度分别为625ppm、645ppm和669ppm(1ppm=10-6)。对应着2℃全球变暖,中国气候变暖幅度明显更大。从空间分布形势上看,变暖从南向北加强,在青藏高原地区存在一个升温大值区;就整体而言,中国区域平均的年平均地表气温上升2.7～2.9℃,冬季升温幅度(3.1～3.2℃)要较其他季节更大。年平均降水量在华南大部分地区减少0～5%,而在其余地区增加0～20%,中国区域年平均降水增加3.4%～4.4%,各季节增加量在0.5%～6.6%之间。

全球升温控制在2℃以内目标下中国能源与排放情景研究

近几年来,全球到2100年将自工业化以来温度上升控制在2℃的目标已经达成共识。但是未来如何实现全球2℃升温控制目标是目前各国研究机构需要答复的问题,也是IPCC第五次评估报告的重点。近期全球几个研究项目已经着重利用模型分析全球2℃目标排放途径。中国在全球眼中的角色很重要。本文给出了我们利用模型分析中国在全球框架下实现2℃目标的排放情景的主要因素,同时讨论了中国实现2℃排放情景的可行性。研究发现,如果全球要实现2℃升温控制目标,中国需要将CO2排放在2025年之前达到峰值,而且中国实现这样的排放途径也是可能的。近期技术进步、对低碳发展的投资潜力、中国走向低碳发展的政策环境,为中国在2025年实现排放峰值提供了基础。

2℃全球变暖背景下青藏高原平均气候和极端气候事件变化

利用CMIP5耦合模式RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景预估结果,以1890一1900年为基准气候,确定了2℃全球变暖时间、对应时期青藏高原平均气候和极端气候事件变化幅度,多模式集合平均结果表明:RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2℃全球变暖分别发生在2063年、2040年和2036年;对应着2℃全球变暖,三种情景下青藏高原平均气温分别升高2.99℃、3.22℃和3.28℃,均超过全球2℃的升温水平;年降水量亦增加,分别增加8.35%、7.16%和7.63%。受气温升高和降水量增多影响,RCP4.5情景下霜冻日数、冰封日数减少,暖夜日数、暖昼日数增多;RCP4.5情景下中雨日数、强降水量、降水强度均增加,持续干期天数减少。从各地平均气候和极端气候事件变化结果来看,柴达木盆地是青藏高原气候变化的敏感区。

高CO_2 10℃气调对树上干杏采后软化的影响

为明确高CO_210℃气调对树上干杏采后软化的影响,测定10℃、3%O_2贮藏期间3%、10%、20%、50%CO_2处理下的品质变化。结果表明:3%、10%、20%、50%CO_2处理均有一定效应,贮藏前期10%、20%CO_2能有效延缓果实软化,利于保持鲜果品质。贮藏中后期,3%CO_2处理保持了较高的硬度水平,适于长期贮藏。50%CO_2气调PG(多聚半乳糖醛酸酶)活性最低,有效抑制了原果胶向水溶性果胶的转化,但软化程度仍最严重,且出现异味,表现出CO_2气体伤害。

CMIP5模式对辽宁省气温模拟能力及未来2℃升温阈值出现时间评估

利用全球气候模式、多模式集合和辽宁省气象观测数据,评估了不同典型浓度路径下19个全球气候模式和多模式集合对辽宁省气温变化模拟能力和可信度。结果表明:最优模式模拟结果优于多模式集合,具有较高的可信度。随着全球二氧化碳排放浓度增加,气温变化率和可信度呈增加趋势,首次达到2℃年份呈提前趋势,大部分站点出现在2011年之前,且出现年份越晚,升幅往往越高,反之亦然。大部分站点首次稳定到达2℃阈值开始年份在2022年之前,结束年份出现在2019—2026年,持续时间在13 a以下,开始年份均呈西早—东晚分布形势,结束时间和持续时间分布较均匀,且随着全球二氧化碳排放浓度增加,升温幅度呈上升趋势。不同典型浓度路径下各区域最高温、最低温和平均气温出现年份和变化特征均比较一致。

CMIP5对东北地区气温评估和2℃/4℃升温阈值出现时间研究

利用全球气候模式、多模式集合和东北三省观测数据,评估了不同典型浓度路径下全球气候模式和多模式集合对东北区域气温变化模拟能力和可信度,结果发现最优模式模拟结果优于多模式集合,具有较高的可信度。2℃升温阈值结果分析表明:大部分地区首次稳定到达2℃阈值开始年份分别出现在2025年之前(RCP2.6),在2015年之前(RCP4.5)和在2033年(RCP8.5)之前;其中RCP2.6情景下出现最早,RCP8.5情景下最晚,各情景下大体呈西晚-东早分布形势。4℃升温阈值结果分析表明:随着情景增加,首次达到4℃阈值的年份呈提前趋势,其中RCP4.5下出现最早,大部分站点出现在2048年之前,RCP8.5下出现最晚,大部分站点出现在2073年之前。东北三省气温预估结果分析表明:东北三省未来气温呈同步一致变化特征,随着情景增加,各省升温速率均呈上升趋势。

2℃低温下冬小麦幼苗质膜Ca^(2+)-ATPase的活性变化

用氯化铈 (CeCl3 )沉淀的电镜细胞化学方法 ,对常温下及 2℃低温处理后的冬小麦 (TriticumaestiviumL .)幼苗质膜Ca2 + ATPase活性进行定位 .结果显示 :(1)常温下生长的冬小麦幼苗 ,质膜上有部分Ca2 + ATPase活性反应 .(2 )冬小麦幼苗经 2℃低温处理 1h ,质膜上Ca2 + ATPase活性增加 .处理 3h ,活性进一步加强 .2℃下处理 12h ,有强的酶活性反应 .处理 2 4h后 ,活性反应达到最强 .2℃处理 3d ,Ca2 + ATPase活性有所下降 ,但仍高于CK .细胞结构完整 .据结果推测 ,质膜Ca2 + ATPase活性受细胞内Ca2 + 浓度反馈调节 .图 1参

树上干杏10℃高CO_2保鲜研究

试验以新疆树上干杏为试材,研究10℃、3%O_2条件下,3%、10%、20%和30%CO2处理的品质变化。结果表明:30 d内,3%、10%、20%和30%CO_2处理均有一定效应,其中,20%CO_2处理的综合评价最佳,贮藏期末果实硬度、SSC、TA、VC含量和PG活性分别为1.52 kg/cm^2、19.36%、0.73%、6.88 mg/g FW、260.08μg/h·g FW。但是,10%CO_2与20%CO_2处理差异不显著(P>0.05)。30%CO_2处理产生一定伤害,果实品质差。

猪皮、尸体皮在-80℃冰箱降温-LN_2冻存中细菌学的动态观察

目的 :探讨猪皮、尸体皮在冷冻保存过程中 ,消毒剂、冷冻及抗冻剂对皮肤细菌的影响。方法 :将新鲜消毒的中厚猪皮、尸体皮和经过 - 80℃降温 ,LN2 冻存的猪皮、尸体皮各取 6块行需氧菌和厌氧菌培养 ,而后做细菌学检测。结果 :猪皮冷冻前后三组各时间点均检出细菌 ,尸体皮仅冷冻前和冷冻后对照组及 10 %D -KR组检出细菌 ,余未检出细菌。所检出的需氧菌为表皮葡萄球菌和棒状杆菌 ,厌氧菌为丙酸杆菌和贪婪丙酸杆菌。猪皮所检细菌量 3- 5CFulog/g ,尸体皮 <4CFulog/ g。结论 :猪皮细菌检出率明显高于尸体皮 ,冷冻对细菌检出率有一定影响 ,温度越低影响越大 ,但与冷冻时间长短无关。抗冻剂对皮肤细菌无影响。常规清洗消毒方法不能完全清除皮肤细菌。