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基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究
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作者 孙世梅 张家严 《中国安全科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第4期153-159,共7页
为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾... 为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。 展开更多
关键词 2-4”模型(24model) 决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL) 解释结构模型(ISM) 地铁站 火灾疏散 影响因素
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24Model与LCM原因因素定义对比研究
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作者 袁晨辉 傅贵 +1 位作者 吴治蓉 赵金坤 《中国安全科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第1期27-34,共8页
为探究损失致因模型(LCM)原因因素定义与事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)存在的异同和优缺点,梳理2个模型各层面原因和结果的定义,对比定义内容及其对事故原因分析等安全实务的指导作用,并以一起瓦斯爆炸事故为例加以实证分析,获得二者分... 为探究损失致因模型(LCM)原因因素定义与事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)存在的异同和优缺点,梳理2个模型各层面原因和结果的定义,对比定义内容及其对事故原因分析等安全实务的指导作用,并以一起瓦斯爆炸事故为例加以实证分析,获得二者分析结果之间的差异。研究结果表明:LCM是首个将管理因素纳入事故致因分析的一维事件序列模型,可明确各层面原因因素的定义和因素间的逻辑关系,但部分定义存在交叉重复的问题,并没有揭示安全工作指导思想等深层次事故致因因素;24Model作为系统性事故致因模型,对各类因素的定义均以组织为主体,描述事件、事故、安全的概念内涵,划分个体安全动作、安全能力和组织安全管理体系的类别并给出含义解析,探究组织安全文化层面的问题并以32个元素体现;2个模型的事故原因分析方法均建立在对各层级原因因素定义的基础上,并适用于模型理论体系本身。 展开更多
关键词 2-4”模型(24model) 损失致因模型(LCM) 事故致因模型 原因因素定义 对比研究
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Performance validation of High Mountain Asia 8-meter Digital Elevation Model using ICESat-2 geolocated photons
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作者 Giribabu DANDABATHULA Subham ROY +7 位作者 Omkar Shashikant GHATAGE Vaibhav Balaso KOLASE Shwetambari SATPUTE Koushik GHOSH Sahibnoor KAUR Satyanarayana PONDARI Apurba Kumar BERA Sushil Kumar SRIVASTAV 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第8期2562-2578,共17页
High Mountain Asia(HMA),recognized as a third pole,needs regular and intense studies as it is susceptible to climate change.An accurate and high-resolution Digital Elevation Model(DEM)for this region enables us to ana... High Mountain Asia(HMA),recognized as a third pole,needs regular and intense studies as it is susceptible to climate change.An accurate and high-resolution Digital Elevation Model(DEM)for this region enables us to analyze it in a 3D environment and understand its intricate role as the Water Tower of Asia.The science teams of NASA realized an 8-m DEM using satellite stereo imagery for HMA,termed HMA 8-m DEM.In this research,we assessed the vertical accuracy of HMA 8-m DEM using reference elevations from ICESat-2 geolocated photons at three test sites of varied topography and land covers.Inferences were made from statistical quantifiers and elevation profiles.For the world’s highest mountain,Mount Everest,and its surroundings,Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)resulted in 1.94 m and 1.66 m,respectively;however,a uniform positive bias observed in the elevation profiles indicates the seasonal snow cover change will dent the accurate estimation of the elevation in this sort of test sites.The second test site containing gentle slopes with forest patches has exhibited the Digital Surface Model(DSM)features with RMSE and MAE of 0.58 m and 0.52 m,respectively.The third test site,situated in the Zanda County of the Qinghai-Tibet,is a relatively flat terrain bed,mostly bare earth with sudden river cuts,and has minimal errors with RMSE and MAE of 0.32 m and 0.29 m,respectively,and with a negligible bias.Additionally,in one more test site,the feasibility of detecting the glacial lakes was tested,which resulted in exhibiting a flat surface over the surface of the lakes,indicating the potential of HMA 8-m DEM for deriving the hydrological parameters.The results accrued in this investigation confirm that the HMA 8-m DEM has the best vertical accuracy and should be of high use for analyzing natural hazards and monitoring glacier surfaces. 展开更多
关键词 High Mountain Asia Digital Elevation model ICESat-2 geolocated photons Accuracy assessment
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Depositional model of the Member Deng-2 marginal microbial mound-bank complex of the Dengying Formation in the southwestern Sichuan Basin, SW China: Implications for the Ediacaran microbial mound construction and hydrocarbon exploration
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作者 Jin-Min Song Xin Jin +10 位作者 Zhong Luo Shu-Gen Liu Shao-Bo Liu Xing-Zhi Ma Zhi-Wu Li Xue-Song Lu Ling-Li Zhao Ke-Ran Li Jia-Xin Ren Li-Zhou Tian Hao-Shuang Deng 《Petroleum Science》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第2期806-822,共17页
Recent advances in hydrocarbon exploration have been made in the Member Deng-2 marginal microbial mound-bank complex reservoirs of the Dengying Formation in the western Sichuan Basin, SW China,where the depositional p... Recent advances in hydrocarbon exploration have been made in the Member Deng-2 marginal microbial mound-bank complex reservoirs of the Dengying Formation in the western Sichuan Basin, SW China,where the depositional process is regarded confusing. The microfacies, construction types, and depositional model of the Member Deng-2 marginal microbial mound-bank complex have been investigated using unmanned aerial vehicle photography, outcrop section investigation, thin section identification,and seismic reflections in the southwestern Sichuan Basin. The microbialite lithologic textures in this region include thrombolite, dendrolite, stromatolite, fenestral stromatolite, spongiostromata stone,oncolite, aggregated grainstone, and botryoidal grapestone. Based on the comprehensive analysis of“depositional fabrics-lithology-microfacies”, an association between a fore mound, mound framework,and back mound subfacies has been proposed based on water depth, current direction, energy level and lithologic assemblages. The microfacies of the mound base, mound core, mound flank, mound cap, and mound flat could be recognized among the mound framework subfacies. Two construction types of marginal microbial mound-bank complex have been determined based on deposition location, mound scale, migration direction, and sedimentary facies association. Type Jinkouhe microbial mound constructions(TJMMCs) develop along the windward margin owing to their proximity to the seaward subfacies fore mound, with a northeastwardly migrated microbial mound on top of the mud mound,exhibiting the characteristics of large-sized mounds and small-sized banks in the surrounding area. Type E'bian microbial mound constructions(TEMMCs) primarily occur on the leeward margin, resulting from the presence of onshore back mound subfacies, with the smaller southwestward migrated microbial mounds existing on a thicker microbial flat. The platform margin microbial mound depositional model can be correlated with certain lateral comparison profile and seismic reflection structures in the 2D seismic section, which can provide references for future worldwide exploration. Microbial mounds with larger buildups and thicker vertical reservoirs are typically targeted on the windward margin, while small-sized microbial mounds and flats with better lateral connections are typically focused on the leeward margin. 展开更多
关键词 Sichuan Basin The Member Deng-2 Marginal microbial mound-bank complex Depositional model Exploration implications
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Tidal modeling based on satellite altimetry observations of TOPEX/ Poseidon, Jason1, Jason2, and Jason3 with high prediction capability: A case study of the Baltic Sea
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作者 Alireza A.Ardalan Asiyeh Hashemifaraz 《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 EI CSCD 2024年第4期404-418,共15页
This research aims to optimize the utilization of long-term sea level data from the TOPEX/Poseidon,Jason1,Jason2,and Jason3 altimetry missions for tidal modeling.We generate a time series of along-track observations a... This research aims to optimize the utilization of long-term sea level data from the TOPEX/Poseidon,Jason1,Jason2,and Jason3 altimetry missions for tidal modeling.We generate a time series of along-track observations and apply a developed method to produce tidal models with specific tidal constituents for each location.Our tidal modeling methodology follows an iterative process:partitioning sea surface height(SSH)observations into analysis/training and prediction/validation parts and ultimately identi-fying the set of tidal constituents that provide the best predictions at each time series location.The study focuses on developing 1256 time series along the altimetry tracks over the Baltic Sea,each with its own set of tidal constituents.Verification of the developed tidal models against the sSH observations within the prediction/validation part reveals mean absolute error(MAE)values ranging from 0.0334 m to 0.1349 m,with an average MAE of 0.089 m.The same validation process is conducted on the FES2014 and EOT20 global tidal models,demonstrating that our tidal model,referred to as BT23(short for Baltic Tide 2023),outperforms both models with an average MAE improvement of 0.0417 m and 0.0346 m,respectively.In addition to providing details on the development of the time series and the tidal modeling procedure,we offer the 1256 along-track time series and their associated tidal models as supplementary materials.We encourage the satellite altimetry community to utilize these resources for further research and applications. 展开更多
关键词 Satellitealtimetry Baltic Sea Ocean tide modeling Jason3 Jason2 Jason1 TOPEX/POSEIDON EOT20 FES2014
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24 Model在道路运输事故成因中的应用
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作者 刘晓露 梁志星 +2 位作者 吴君安 严玉琼 张苏 《汽车安全与节能学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第2期185-192,共8页
为预防道路运输事故,基于事故致因“2-4”(24 Model)模型,对2015—2021年发生的215起道路运输事故的行为原因进行研究。从个人层面和组织层面分析导致事故发生的直接原因、间接原因、根本原因及其根源原因。结果表明:发生频次最多的不... 为预防道路运输事故,基于事故致因“2-4”(24 Model)模型,对2015—2021年发生的215起道路运输事故的行为原因进行研究。从个人层面和组织层面分析导致事故发生的直接原因、间接原因、根本原因及其根源原因。结果表明:发生频次最多的不安全动作是驾驶员超速行驶(占10.67%);22.33%的道路运输事故存在管理者违章安排无资质员工上岗作业;管理者和领导者对57.67%的道路运输事故的发生有重要影响;由人为因素产生的不安全物态占比达71.53%;驾驶员、车辆安全生产管理制度欠缺或执行不到位在根本原因中尤为突出(占20.92%)。基于此,提出道路运输事故预防对策并构建出道路运输系统各因素关系图。 展开更多
关键词 汽车主动安全 道路运输事故 事故致因 2-4”模型(24 model) 对策
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2-D Modeling and Calculations of Stratospheric Ozone and Influences of Convection, Diffusion, and Time
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作者 Ibraheem Alelmi Laurie Wei Sen Nieh 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2024年第2期250-276,共27页
An engineering system approach of 2-D cylindrical model of transient mass balance calculations of ozone and other concerned chemicals along with fourteen photolysis, ozone-generating and ozone-depleting chemical react... An engineering system approach of 2-D cylindrical model of transient mass balance calculations of ozone and other concerned chemicals along with fourteen photolysis, ozone-generating and ozone-depleting chemical reaction equations was developed, validated, and used for studying the ozone concentrations, distribution and peak of the layer, ozone depletion and total ozone abundance in the stratosphere. The calculated ozone concentrations and profile at both the Equator and a 60˚N location were found to follow closely with the measured data. The calculated average ozone concentration was within 1% of the measured average, and the deviation of ozone profiles was within 14%. The monthly evolution of stratospheric ozone concentrations and distribution above the Equator was studied with results discussed in details. The influences of slow air movement in both altitudinal and radial directions on ozone concentrations and profile in the stratosphere were explored and discussed. Parametric studies of the influences of gas diffusivities of ozone D<sub>O3</sub> and active atomic oxygen D<sub>O</sub> on ozone concentrations and distributions were also studied and delineated. Having both influences through physical diffusion and chemical reactions, the diffusivity (and diffusion) of atomic oxygen D<sub>O</sub> was found to be more sensitive and important than that of ozone D<sub>O3</sub> on ozone concentrations and distribution. The 2-D ozone model present in this paper for stratospheric ozone and its layer and depletion is shown to be robust, convenient, efficient, and executable for analyzing the complex ozone phenomena in the stratosphere. . 展开更多
关键词 Stratospheric Ozone 2-D model Ozone Layer Ozone Depletion CONVECTION DIFFUSION
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Numerical Models and Methods of Atmospheric Parameters Originating in the Formation of the Earth’s Climatic Cycle
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作者 Wend Dolean Arsène Ilboudo Kassoum Yamba +1 位作者 Windé Nongué Daniel Koumbem Issaka Ouédraogo 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2024年第2期277-286,共10页
Atmospheric models are physical equations based on the ideal gas law. Applied to the atmosphere, this law yields equations for water, vapor (gas), ice, air, humidity, dryness, fire, and heat, thus defining the model o... Atmospheric models are physical equations based on the ideal gas law. Applied to the atmosphere, this law yields equations for water, vapor (gas), ice, air, humidity, dryness, fire, and heat, thus defining the model of key atmospheric parameters. The distribution of these parameters across the entire planet Earth is the origin of the formation of the climatic cycle, which is a normal climatic variation. To do this, the Earth is divided into eight (8) parts according to the number of key parameters to be defined in a physical representation of the model. Following this distribution, numerical models calculate the constants for the formation of water, vapor, ice, dryness, thermal energy (fire), heat, air, and humidity. These models vary in complexity depending on the indirect trigonometric direction and simplicity in the sum of neighboring models. Note that the constants obtained from the equations yield 275.156˚K (2.006˚C) for water, 273.1596˚K (0.00963˚C) for vapor, 273.1633˚K (0.0133˚C) for ice, 0.00365 in/s for atmospheric dryness, 1.996 in<sup>2</sup>/s for humidity, 2.993 in<sup>2</sup>/s for air, 1 J for thermal energy of fire, and 0.9963 J for heat. In summary, this study aims to define the main parameters and natural phenomena contributing to the modification of planetary climate. . 展开更多
关键词 Atmospheric Parameter 1 Climatic Cycle 2 Numerical models 3
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Analysis of the Application Effect of Family Collaborative Care Model on Elderly Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and the Situation of Self-Care Ability
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作者 Yanling Zhao 《Journal of Clinical and Nursing Research》 2024年第4期393-398,共6页
Objective: To study the application effect of the family collaborative care model on elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and its influence on self-care ability. Methods: The elderly type 2 diabetes mellitus... Objective: To study the application effect of the family collaborative care model on elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and its influence on self-care ability. Methods: The elderly type 2 diabetes mellitus patients (400 cases) treated in our hospital between March 2020 and July 2023 were divided into two groups by randomized grouping method;the control group received the conventional nursing program, while the observation group received the family collaborative nursing model. Blood glucose level, self-care ability, and quality of life were compared between the groups. Results: The blood glucose level of the observation group was lower than that of the control group (P < 0.05). The self- care ability and quality of life scores of the observation group were higher than those of the control group (P < 0.05). Conclusion: The family collaborative care model for elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus can promote their self- care ability, improve the effect of glycemic control, and improve their quality of life, and is suitable for further promotion and application. 展开更多
关键词 ELDERLY Type 2 diabetes mellitus Family collaborative care model Self-care ability Quality of life.
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Analysis of the Effect of Integrated Extended Care Model in Improving the Quality of Life of Elderly Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
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作者 Lili Liu 《Journal of Clinical and Nursing Research》 2024年第4期174-179,共6页
Objective: To analyze the impact of an integrated extended care model on improving the quality of life of elderly patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). Methods: A total of 176 patients admitted to the hospita... Objective: To analyze the impact of an integrated extended care model on improving the quality of life of elderly patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). Methods: A total of 176 patients admitted to the hospital from March 2015 to February 2018 were selected and randomly assigned to an observation group and a control group, with 88 patients each. The control group implemented conventional nursing interventions, and the observation group carried out an integrated extended-care model. The level of glycemic control, quality of life, and daily medication adherence between both groups were compared. Results: The observation group showed significant improvement in the level of glycemic control, and their fasting blood glucose, 2-hour postprandial blood glucose, and glycated hemoglobin levels were significantly lower as compared with those in the study group (P < 0.05). The quality of life of the patients in the observation group was higher than that of the control group (P < 0.05). The observation group had a higher compliance score (95.48 ± 7.45) than the control group (81.31 ± 8.72) (t = 8.909, P < 0.05). Conclusion: The integrated extended care model allows patients to receive comprehensive and individualized nursing services after discharge, which improves the effect of drug therapy and the quality of life of patients. 展开更多
关键词 Integrated extended care model Elderly type 2 diabetes mellitus Quality of life
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基于24Model的煤炭企业安全文化提升实践研究
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作者 崔义 刘振宇 +6 位作者 闫寿庆 王冰山 秦东立 姜琦 郭洁 张磊 赵金坤 《煤矿安全》 CAS 北大核心 2024年第2期250-256,共7页
为了发挥安全文化在事故预防中的重要作用,运用基于事故致因“2-4”模型的安全文化水平提升方法研究某煤炭企业的安全文化建设现状并提出改进措施。首先,明确了24Model视域下的安全文化水平提升方法在我国的适用性;然后,从安全文化水平... 为了发挥安全文化在事故预防中的重要作用,运用基于事故致因“2-4”模型的安全文化水平提升方法研究某煤炭企业的安全文化建设现状并提出改进措施。首先,明确了24Model视域下的安全文化水平提升方法在我国的适用性;然后,从安全文化水平现状和安全理念2方面开展了针对该企业的实践研究;最后,提出改进措施。结果表明:该企业安全文化水平总体上要比国内或同行业的安全业绩较差的企业好,比安全业绩较好的企业差;该企业安全理念涉及32元素的13个方面;一线人员、班组长、专业人员和领导层对部分元素的理解程度不佳,并且这些元素中仅有元素3、元素4、元素6、元素13、元素16的内容在企业的安全理念有所体现。提出了14条改进的安全理念用于提高企业的安全文化水平。 展开更多
关键词 安全文化 事故致因“2-4”模型 安全理念 事故预防 安全制度 安全认知
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能源资源开发区域大气CO_(2)时空变化及影响因素分析 被引量:1
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作者 杨慧 范怀伟 +8 位作者 徐晓 张云惠 王文峰 闫兆进 王成 王俊辉 刘蕾 王冉 慈慧 《地学前缘》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第4期147-164,共18页
分析能源资源开发区域大气碳浓度的时空变化和影响因素,对于探索“碳达峰”“碳中和”背景下能源资源开发高质量发展路径至关重要。新疆维吾尔自治区是我国重要的能源和战略资源基地,本文面向新疆维吾尔自治区的能源资源开发现状,采集... 分析能源资源开发区域大气碳浓度的时空变化和影响因素,对于探索“碳达峰”“碳中和”背景下能源资源开发高质量发展路径至关重要。新疆维吾尔自治区是我国重要的能源和战略资源基地,本文面向新疆维吾尔自治区的能源资源开发现状,采集并预处理了2015—2021年轨道碳观测卫星-2(Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2,OCO-2)二氧化碳L3数据产品,分析研究区大气碳浓度的时间变化趋势和空间分布格局,构建深度森林回归模型,并分析各影响因素对碳浓度时空变化的驱动作用。结果表明:(1)新疆维吾尔自治区、准噶尔盆地、吐哈盆地和塔里木盆地XCO_(2)浓度在2015—2021年均呈周期性上升趋势,增长率呈“先减后增”,且季节变化趋势呈现明显的“春季高冬季低”;(2)在春、秋和冬季,新疆XCO_(2)浓度空间格局呈现“北高南低”的趋势,在盆地区域及能源资源开发区域出现XCO_(2)高浓度积聚现象,夏季则呈现“北低南高”趋势;(3)地形起伏、风场流速、NDVI、地表温度、降水量、10 mV风、10 mU风和能源开发强度对区域XCO_(2)浓度时空分布有显著影响,各因素呈现明显的空间异质性和显著差异。研究结果有助于理解能源资源开采区域的大气碳浓度时空演变机制,在国家碳减排目标的实现、指导碳中和策略、追踪碳减排效果等方面具有深远意义。 展开更多
关键词 能源资源开发 XCO_(2)时空变化 影响因素 深度森林回归模型
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CO_(2)−荷载耦合作用下煤体细观统计损伤本构模型及验证
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作者 王磊 陈礼鹏 +4 位作者 谢广祥 范浩 李少波 邹鹏 张宇 《煤炭学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第6期2630-2642,共13页
CO_(2)吸附会对煤体产生损伤劣化作用进而降低其稳定性,对CO_(2)封存的长期安全性提出挑战,明确CO_(2)劣化作用并建立本构模型至关重要。采用损伤力学理论和统计理论推导出能够综合反映CO_(2)吸附和荷载耦合作用下煤体总损伤变量的计算... CO_(2)吸附会对煤体产生损伤劣化作用进而降低其稳定性,对CO_(2)封存的长期安全性提出挑战,明确CO_(2)劣化作用并建立本构模型至关重要。采用损伤力学理论和统计理论推导出能够综合反映CO_(2)吸附和荷载耦合作用下煤体总损伤变量的计算公式,并重点考虑了压密段的影响,分段建立了CO_(2)作用下煤体的细观统计损伤本构方程,明确了模型各参数的确定方法。最后通过CT扫描实验系统、MTS 816实验系统确定了本构模型参数,并采用自主研制的气−固耦合实验系统对不同CO_(2)压力下煤体进行了单轴压缩实验,验证了模型的合理性。研究结果表明:①基于CT扫描获取的裂隙率和运用Weibull分布理论分别定义了吸附和受载作用下的损伤变量,结合损伤理论进一步得到二者耦合作用下的总损伤变量,并建立了细观统计损伤本构模型;②基于CT扫描技术的裂隙三维重构真实反映了CO_(2)作用前后裂隙扩展特征,CO_(2)压力越高,裂隙扩展越充分,煤样三维裂隙参数和损伤变量越大,所形成的空间裂隙网络越复杂;③CO_(2)对煤体力学性质劣化作用显著,煤体的抗压强度与弹性模量随CO_(2)压力增加分别降低了49.78%和22.63%,CO_(2)对煤体的溶胀效应、塑化效应和气楔效应的综合作用导致了力学参数的降低;④建立的CO_(2)作用下煤体细观统计损伤模型理论曲线与单轴实验曲线具有较高的吻合度,说明损伤本构模型能够较好地反映出CO_(2)对煤体力学特性的损伤劣化作用,体现了损伤本构模型及模型参数确定方法的合理性与适用性。 展开更多
关键词 CO_(2)地质封存 本构模型 损伤变量 力学特性 裂隙演化
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STPA与24Model的对比分析 被引量:1
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作者 宋炜 傅贵 《中国安全科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第6期1-10,共10页
为完善和发展事故致因理论,从基础理论、相关定义、分析过程和分析难度4个方面,对比分析系统理论过程分析(STPA)与“2-4”模型(24Model),并分别进行实例应用。研究结果表明:两者都有很强的理论基础;24Model和STPA总体依照线性模式展开,... 为完善和发展事故致因理论,从基础理论、相关定义、分析过程和分析难度4个方面,对比分析系统理论过程分析(STPA)与“2-4”模型(24Model),并分别进行实例应用。研究结果表明:两者都有很强的理论基础;24Model和STPA总体依照线性模式展开,部分元素可得到对应。STPA的研究对象为系统中的损失,更擅长系统交互研究,研究复杂程度较高,研究误差较大,更适用于单起事故分析;而24Model的研究对象为组织中的事件,事故原因划分更加明确与通用,分析过程简单,研究误差较小,在单起事故和多起事故分析中均可使用,两者都具有较好的拓展性。在应用方面,STPA能够明确指出系统内危险源与损害的联系,但应用过程复杂,致因因素分析主观性强,缺乏对管理体系和安全文化的研究;24Model原因分析结果全面,应用步骤明确,但缺乏对组织间的交互和设计缺陷分析。 展开更多
关键词 系统理论过程分析(STPA) 2-4”模型(24model) 事故致因理论 对比分析 火灾事故
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功能化氮杂环卡宾聚合树脂对Cu^(2+)的吸附研究
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作者 伍婵翠 蔡怀然 +3 位作者 李学军 陈培博 黄健 梁英 《环境科学与技术》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第3期208-218,共11页
该研究制备了功能化氮杂环卡宾聚合树脂(PNO),旨在去除废水中Cu^(2+);基于静态和动态吸附实验,研究了PNO对废水中Cu^(2+)的吸附效果。结果表明:PNO对Cu^(2+)的最佳吸附条件为吸附剂投加量100 mg、吸附时间30 min、pH值4.0~5.9、温度298 ... 该研究制备了功能化氮杂环卡宾聚合树脂(PNO),旨在去除废水中Cu^(2+);基于静态和动态吸附实验,研究了PNO对废水中Cu^(2+)的吸附效果。结果表明:PNO对Cu^(2+)的最佳吸附条件为吸附剂投加量100 mg、吸附时间30 min、pH值4.0~5.9、温度298 K、转速150 r/min,最大吸附量为51.55 mg/g。PNO对Cu^(2+)的吸附过程符合Langmuir、Freundlich等温吸附模型和准二级动力学模型。动态吸附量随柱高增加、流速降低和进水Cu^(2+)浓度增加而增大。使用Thomas和Bohart-Adams模型拟合,相关系数R^(2)均大于0.92,预测值与实验值相符。经过5次静态吸附-解吸和3次动态循环再生后,PNO对Cu^(2+)的去除率仍达到第一次循环的96%以上,去除效果和再生性能良好。PNO对含铜废水高效处理具有广泛的应用前景。 展开更多
关键词 功能化氮杂环卡宾聚合树脂 Cu^(2+) 吸附性能 吸附模型
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钢在高温CO_(2)环境中氧化渗碳腐蚀机理及其涂层防护研究进展
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作者 李微 孙涛 +3 位作者 柏国伟 张弛鹏 李聪 彭卓寅 《中国表面工程》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第2期72-90,共19页
钢材由于具有高强度和耐热性等优异性能而广泛应用于各种零构件,在服役过程中通常面临较为严重的腐蚀问题。CO_(2)腐蚀是钢材应用领域中较为常见的一种腐蚀失效方式。通常,CO_(2)对钢的腐蚀行为表现为其溶于水后产生的碳酸腐蚀,但在高... 钢材由于具有高强度和耐热性等优异性能而广泛应用于各种零构件,在服役过程中通常面临较为严重的腐蚀问题。CO_(2)腐蚀是钢材应用领域中较为常见的一种腐蚀失效方式。通常,CO_(2)对钢的腐蚀行为表现为其溶于水后产生的碳酸腐蚀,但在高温环境中,CO_(2)可直接使钢表面氧化,同时伴随渗碳现象发生,钢的力学性能与耐腐蚀性能均会因此大幅下降。然而,目前关于钢在高温CO_(2)环境中的腐蚀行为研究缺乏相关系统总结。综述有关高温CO_(2)环境下钢的腐蚀机理,总结高温CO_(2)环境中温度、压力以及环境中存在的其他杂质气体对腐蚀方式及机理的影响规律,归纳已有的高温CO_(2)氧化与渗碳腐蚀模型的发展状况,概述目前关于抗高温CO_(2)腐蚀的钢材涂层类型及其防护效果。研究表明,由于含Cr钢在高温CO_(2)环境中形成的Cr2O3层相较于Fe氧化物层更加致密,Cr元素的存在通常有利于钢的耐腐蚀性能。而环境中,温度与压力的升高以及杂质气体的存在往往会加重钢的CO_(2)腐蚀,但这些因素的影响规律会随着钢的种类及服役环境的变化而变化。目前关于钢的CO_(2)腐蚀模型主要为单一的高温氧化模型或者渗碳模型,可预测氧化物层厚度或渗碳深度,但无法准确预测同时发生氧化和渗碳行为的钢的腐蚀寿命。综述相关研究现状不仅能指出现有研究的不足及未来研究的展开方向,还可为高温环境中钢材抗CO_(2)腐蚀防护措施的选择及其长周期安全服务寿命评价提供全面理论依据。 展开更多
关键词 CO_(2)腐蚀 腐蚀机理 影响因素 预测模型 涂层防护
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基于Sentinel-2多光谱遥感影像的小浪底水质反演
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作者 郭荣幸 王超梁 +1 位作者 陈济民 韩红印 《人民黄河》 CAS 北大核心 2024年第1期93-96,102,共5页
多光谱遥感技术可根据遥感波段信息反演水质参数,降低监测成本,提高监测速度和质量,为大范围水环境监测提供了一种新的方法。通过分析小浪底水库的Sentinel-2多光谱影像以及采样点实测水质数据,建立了最佳光谱波段的水质参数反演模型,... 多光谱遥感技术可根据遥感波段信息反演水质参数,降低监测成本,提高监测速度和质量,为大范围水环境监测提供了一种新的方法。通过分析小浪底水库的Sentinel-2多光谱影像以及采样点实测水质数据,建立了最佳光谱波段的水质参数反演模型,对小浪底水库的化学需氧量(COD)、总磷(TP)、总氮(TN)和氨氮(NH_3-N)进行了遥感反演,验证了反演模型的精确度和稳定性,并反演了各水质参数的空间分布规律。结果表明:在4种水质参数反演模型中,COD模型精确度和稳定性最高,其次是TP、TN,最低的是NH_3-N,水库出水口和部分边缘COD质量浓度较高,水库中心TN、TP和NH_3-N质量浓度高于边缘处。 展开更多
关键词 多光谱遥感 水质反演 Sentinel-2 反演模型 小浪底水库
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2000—2021年如东县2型糖尿病发病趋势分析
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作者 张爱红 徐红 +1 位作者 孙艳丽 周晓云 《中国初级卫生保健》 2024年第1期46-49,共4页
目的:分析2000—2021年如东县2型糖尿病发病趋势,为政府制定糖尿病防控策略提供科学依据。方法:收集2000—2021年如东县区域卫生信息平台和医院信息系统(HIS)中的新发2型糖尿病病例,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析2型糖尿病发病率变化特征,... 目的:分析2000—2021年如东县2型糖尿病发病趋势,为政府制定糖尿病防控策略提供科学依据。方法:收集2000—2021年如东县区域卫生信息平台和医院信息系统(HIS)中的新发2型糖尿病病例,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析2型糖尿病发病率变化特征,计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),预测并验证2022年糖尿病发病水平。结果:2000—2021年如东县2型糖尿病平均粗发病率为259.75/10万,标化发病率总体呈上升趋势,从2000年的51.27/10万上升到2021年的139.83/10万,AAPC为7.76%;2012年是发病率变化转折点,2000—2012年APC=18.67%,2型糖尿病发病率快速上升;2012—2021年APC=-5.24%,发病率缓慢下降。男性粗发病率为198.07/10万,标化率为118.73/10万;女性粗发病率为318.89/10万,标化率为197.03/10万。女性发病率高于男性,差异有统计学意义(Z=4.41,P<0.05)。45~74岁人群2型糖尿病发病率呈波动性变化。结论:2000—2021年如东县2型糖尿病发病率总体先上升后缓慢下降,糖尿病仍是如东县实施综合防控策略的主要慢性病,女性、45~74岁人群是该地区2型糖尿病重点防控对象。 展开更多
关键词 2型糖尿病 发病率 Joinpoint回归模型 趋势分析
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不同山葡萄品种CO_(2)响应模型拟合及评价
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作者 潘越 王宝庆 +2 位作者 王季姣 马勇 李亚兰 《中国农业科技导报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第4期58-66,共9页
为探索不同山葡萄品种叶片CO_(2)响应特征差异,以5 a生山葡萄‘北冰红’‘北国红’‘双红’和‘雪兰红’为试材,采用Li-6400便携式光合仪,测定果实膨大期山葡萄叶片光合-二氧化碳响应曲线(photosynthetic CO_(2)response curve,P_(n)-C_... 为探索不同山葡萄品种叶片CO_(2)响应特征差异,以5 a生山葡萄‘北冰红’‘北国红’‘双红’和‘雪兰红’为试材,采用Li-6400便携式光合仪,测定果实膨大期山葡萄叶片光合-二氧化碳响应曲线(photosynthetic CO_(2)response curve,P_(n)-C_(i))以及胞间CO_(2)浓度(intercellular CO_(2)concentration,C_i)、气孔导度(stomatal conductance,G_s)、水分利用率(water use efficiency,WUE)和蒸腾速率(transpiration rate,T_r)等气体交换参数,基于直角双曲线模型、Michaelis-Menten模型和直角双曲线修正模型3种模型拟合山葡萄叶片P_(n)-C_(i)响应曲线。结果表明,直角双曲线修正模型拟合的山葡萄P_(n)-C_(i)响应曲线,其拟合参数与实测值最为接近,可直接计算CO_(2)饱和点(CO_(2)saturation point,CSP)。随大气CO_(2)浓度(atmospheric CO_(2)concentration,C_a)的增加,4个山葡萄品种C_i呈线性递增趋势;G_s和T_r总体呈先升后降趋势;WUE先降后升,呈“U”型变化趋势。主成分分析提取出2个主成分,累计贡献率达84.613%。综合评价‘雪兰红’得分最高,光能转化利用率最高,在低C_a环境下的适应性最佳;‘双红’在不同C_a水平下均可保持较高光合效率,排名第2。综上所述,直角双曲线修正模型拟合山葡萄叶片P_(n)-C_(i)响应曲线效果最优。 展开更多
关键词 山葡萄 CO_(2)响应模型 隶属函数 主成分分析
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基于Sentinel-1/2改进极化指数和纹理特征的土壤含盐量反演模型
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作者 张智韬 贺玉洁 +3 位作者 殷皓原 项茹 陈俊英 杜瑞麒 《农业机械学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第1期175-185,共11页
目前Sentinel-1/2协同反演植被土壤含盐量的研究大多是基于Sentinel-2光谱信息和Sentinel-1后向散射系数,没有考虑Sentinel-2光谱信息容易受土壤亮度等信息影响,Sentinel-1后向散射系数容易受土壤粗糙度和水分影响。为进一步提高Sentine... 目前Sentinel-1/2协同反演植被土壤含盐量的研究大多是基于Sentinel-2光谱信息和Sentinel-1后向散射系数,没有考虑Sentinel-2光谱信息容易受土壤亮度等信息影响,Sentinel-1后向散射系数容易受土壤粗糙度和水分影响。为进一步提高Sentinel-1/2协同反演植被土壤含盐量的精度,用水云模型对雷达卫星后向散射系数进行校正,消除植被影响;然后协同Sentinel-2纹理特征,基于VIP、OOB、PCA 3种变量筛选和RF、ELM、Cubist 3种机器学习回归模型构建植被土壤含盐量反演模型。研究结果表明:经过水云模型去除植被影响后的雷达后向散射系数及其极化组合指数与土壤含盐量的相关性有一定程度的提高。不同变量选择方法与不同机器学习方法耦合模型在反演土壤含盐量中,OOB变量筛选方法与RF、ELM和Cubist 3种机器学习方法的耦合模型精度最佳,建模集和验证集的R2都在0.750以上,且验证集的RMSE和MAE均最小;其中OOB-Cubist耦合模型精度最高,且R_(v)^(2)/R_(c)^(2)为0.955,具有良好的鲁棒性。研究可为机器学习协同物理模型、光学卫星协同雷达卫星在土壤含盐量反演中的进一步应用提供思路。 展开更多
关键词 土壤含盐量 Sentinel-1/2 纹理特征 水云模型 机器学习 改进极化指数
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