Facing the multiple challenges of low-carbon transformation,China urgently needs to adopt a new energy development path.This study used the Delphi method combined with vision analysis to analyze the advanced energy fi...Facing the multiple challenges of low-carbon transformation,China urgently needs to adopt a new energy development path.This study used the Delphi method combined with vision analysis to analyze the advanced energy fields and gain insights into the development trends of energy technology towards 2035.The Delphi survey convened 762 domestic experts to predict the development demands and trends of advanced energy technology,and to identify important technology topics.A key list,including 91 technology topics in 9 sub-fields,was analyzed with respect to promoting economic growth,improving quality of life,and safeguarding national security.Furthermore,we conducted a research on these technology topics in context of technology research and development(R&D)level,leading countries,technology realization possibility,and constraints.The results from the Delphi survey show that the R&D level of China’s advanced energy technology is still at an elementary stage,and China,significantly,lags behind the US and the EU in the fields of advanced energy.These results reveal that insufficient R&D investment is the primary factor restricting the technology development in China’s advanced energy,though human resources,infrastructure,regulations,policies and standards also play significant roles in restricting technology development.The results from the Delphi survey may serve as a reference and help in exploring the development path of low-carbon transformation and achieving goals for addressing climate change in China.展开更多
文摘Facing the multiple challenges of low-carbon transformation,China urgently needs to adopt a new energy development path.This study used the Delphi method combined with vision analysis to analyze the advanced energy fields and gain insights into the development trends of energy technology towards 2035.The Delphi survey convened 762 domestic experts to predict the development demands and trends of advanced energy technology,and to identify important technology topics.A key list,including 91 technology topics in 9 sub-fields,was analyzed with respect to promoting economic growth,improving quality of life,and safeguarding national security.Furthermore,we conducted a research on these technology topics in context of technology research and development(R&D)level,leading countries,technology realization possibility,and constraints.The results from the Delphi survey show that the R&D level of China’s advanced energy technology is still at an elementary stage,and China,significantly,lags behind the US and the EU in the fields of advanced energy.These results reveal that insufficient R&D investment is the primary factor restricting the technology development in China’s advanced energy,though human resources,infrastructure,regulations,policies and standards also play significant roles in restricting technology development.The results from the Delphi survey may serve as a reference and help in exploring the development path of low-carbon transformation and achieving goals for addressing climate change in China.
