A cold cloud assimilation scheme was developed that fully considers the water substances,i.e.,water vapor,cloud water,rain,ice,snow,and graupel,based on the single-moment WSM6 microphysical scheme and four-dimensional...A cold cloud assimilation scheme was developed that fully considers the water substances,i.e.,water vapor,cloud water,rain,ice,snow,and graupel,based on the single-moment WSM6 microphysical scheme and four-dimensional variational(4D-Var)data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting data assimilation(WRFDA)system.The verification of the regularized WSM6 and its tangent linearity model(TLM)and adjoint mode model(ADM)was proven successful.Two groups of single observation and real sounding data assimilation experiments were set up to further verify the correctness of the assimilation scheme.The results showed that the consideration of ice,snow,and graupel in the assimilation system of the 4D-Var,as opposed to their omission in the warm rain Kessler scheme,allowed the water substances to be reasonably updated,further improving the forecast.Before it can be further applied in the assimilation of observational data,radar reflectivities,and satellite radiances,the cold cloud assimilation scheme needs additional verification,including using conventional ground and sounding observations in the 4D-Var assimilation system.展开更多
Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4D variational （4D-Vat） data assimilation system was developed for ...Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4D variational （4D-Vat） data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model （ICM） and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer （Te）, which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level （SL） variation. The strength of the thermocline effect on SST （referred to simply as ＂the thermocline effect＂） is represented by an introduced parameter, （l＇Te. A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having their initial condition optimized only, and having their initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized, are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameters and initial conditions together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Vat data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.展开更多
Axisymmetric bogus vortexes at sea level are usually used in the traditional bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. In the traditional scheme, the vortex could not accurately describe the specific characteristics of a ...Axisymmetric bogus vortexes at sea level are usually used in the traditional bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. In the traditional scheme, the vortex could not accurately describe the specific characteristics of a typhoon, and the evolving real typhoon is forced to unreasonably adapt to this changeless vortex. For this reason, an asymmetrical typhoon bogus method with information blended from the analysis and the observation is put forward in this paper, in which the impact of the Subtropical High is also taken into consideration. With the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its adjoint model, a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) technique is employed to build a dynamic asymmetrical BDA scheme to assimilate different asymmetrical bogus vortexes at different time. The track and intensity of six summer typhoons much influenced by the Subtropical High are simulated and the results are compared. It is shown that the improvement in track simulation in the new scheme is more significant than that in the traditional scheme. Moreover, the periods for which the track cannot be simulated well by the traditional scheme can be improved with the new scheme. The results also reveal that although the simulated typhoon intensity in the new scheme is generally weaker than that in the traditional scheme, this trend enables the new scheme to simulate, in the later period, closer-to-observation intensity than the traditional scheme. However, despite the fact that the observed intensity has been largely weakened, the simulated intensity at later periods of the BDA schemes is still very intensive, resulting in overly development of the typhoon during the simulation. The limitation to the simulation effect of the BDA scheme due to this condition needs to be further studied.展开更多
Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by cal...Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4 D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously,and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4 D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation,which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4 D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.展开更多
The global three-dimensional variational(3D-Var)data assimilation is implemented on a new quasi-uniform overset(Yin-Yang)grid on sphere.As a quasi-uniform spherical grid,it covers the sphere by overlapping two perpend...The global three-dimensional variational(3D-Var)data assimilation is implemented on a new quasi-uniform overset(Yin-Yang)grid on sphere.As a quasi-uniform spherical grid,it covers the sphere by overlapping two perpendicularly oriented grid components which is nothing but low latitude region of the usual latitude-longitude grid.Based on this characteristic of the Yin-Yang grid,it enables us to implement the regional 3D-Var system efficiently and accurately on the Yin or Yang component grid,respectively.The global analysis could update directly from the regional analysis since they have the same configurations like the precondition of eigenvalue decomposition for vertical direction,recursive filtering for horizontal direction,minimization method and observation operator and so on.However,the balance equation and vector wind are needed to be paid more attention on the Yin grid analysis due to its coordinate transformation.How to spread the observation information near the boundary of Yin and Yang grid is a key to the 3D-Var analysis.Extending double the horizontal correlation length distance in the overset boundary of Yin and Yang grid has successfully solved the problem.The results show that the analysis on the Yin-Yang grid is reasonable and similar to the result on the latitude-longitude(LAT-LON)grid.This paper provides a promising strategy for the development of a 3D-Var global system for overset grids.展开更多
Four-dimensional variational(4D-VAR) data assimilation method is a perfect data assimilation solution in theory, but the computational issue is quite difficult in operational implementation.The incremental 4D-VAR assi...Four-dimensional variational(4D-VAR) data assimilation method is a perfect data assimilation solution in theory, but the computational issue is quite difficult in operational implementation.The incremental 4D-VAR assimilation scheme is set up in order to reduce the computational cost. It is shown that the accuracy of the observations, the length of the assimilation window and the choice of the first guess have an important influence on the assimilation outcome through the contrast experiment. Compared with the standard 4D-VAR assimilation scheme, the incremental 4D-VAR assimilation scheme shows its advantage in the computation speed through an assimilation experiment.展开更多
This paper proposes a new method for data assimilation of the surface radial current observed by High Frequency ground wave radar and optimization of the bottom friction coefficient.In this method,the shallow water wa...This paper proposes a new method for data assimilation of the surface radial current observed by High Frequency ground wave radar and optimization of the bottom friction coefficient.In this method,the shallow water wave equation is introduced into the cost function of the multigrid three-dimensional variation data assimilation method as the weak constraint term,the surface current and the bottom friction coefficient are defined as the analytical variables,and the high spatiotemporal resolution surface radial flow observed by the high-frequency ground wave radar is used to optimize the surface current and bottom friction coefficient.This method can effectively consider the spatiotemporal correlation of radar data and extract multiscale information from surface radial flow data from long waves to short waves.Introducing the shallow water wave equation into the cost function as a weak constraint condition can adjust both the momentum and mass fields simultaneously to obtain more reasonable analysis information.The optimized bottom friction coefficient is introduced into the regional ocean numerical model to carry out numerical experiments.The test results show that the bottom friction coefficient obtained by this method can effectively improve the accuracy of the numerical simulation of sea surface height in the offshore area and reduce the simulation error.展开更多
Two sets of assimilation experiments on a landfalling typhoon--Typhoon Dan （1999） over the western North Pacific were designed to compare the performances of two kinds of variational data assimilation schemes that a...Two sets of assimilation experiments on a landfalling typhoon--Typhoon Dan （1999） over the western North Pacific were designed to compare the performances of two kinds of variational data assimilation schemes that are the 3-Dimensional Variational data assimilation of Mapped observation （3DVM） and the 4-dimensional variational data assimilation （4DVar）. Results show that： （1） both the 3DVM and 4DVar successfully improved the simulations of typhoon intensity and track incorporating the satellite AMSU-A retrieved temperature and wind data into the initial conditions, and the 3DVM more significantly due to the flow-dependent of background error covariance matrix and observation error covariance matrix like 3- dimensional variational data assimilation （3DVar） circle; （2） inclusions of extra model integration iterations at each observation time in the 3DVM make it more consistent with prediction model; （3） the 3DVM is much more time-saving due to the exclusion of the adjoint technique in it.展开更多
In variational methods,coupled parameter optimization(CPO) often needs a long minimization time window(MTW) to fully incorporate observational information,but the optimal MTW somehow depends on the model nonlinearity....In variational methods,coupled parameter optimization(CPO) often needs a long minimization time window(MTW) to fully incorporate observational information,but the optimal MTW somehow depends on the model nonlinearity.The analytical four-dimensional ensemble-variational(A-4DEnVar) considers model nonlinearity well and avoids adjoint model.It can theoretically be applied to CPO.To verify the feasibility and the ability of the A-4DEnVar in CPO,“twin” experiments based on A-4DEnVar CPO are conducted for the first time with the comparison of four-dimensional variational(4D-Var).Two algorithms use the same background error covariance matrix and optimization algorithm to control variates.The experiments are based on a simple coupled oceanatmosphere model,in which the atmospheric part is the highly nonlinear Lorenz-63 model,and the oceanic part is a slab ocean model.The results show that both A-4DEnVar and 4D-Var can effectively reduce the error of state variables through CPO.Besides,two methods produce almost the same results in most cases when the MTW is less than 560 time steps.The results are similar when the MTW is larger than 560 time steps and less than 880 time steps.The largest MTW of 4 D-Var and A-4DEnVar are 1 200 time steps.Moreover,A-4DEnVar is not sensitive to ensemble size when the MTW is less than 720 time steps.A-4DEnVar obtains satisfactory results in the case of highly nonlinear model and long MTW,suggesting that it has the potential to be widely applied to realistic CPO.展开更多
Since QuikSCAT is available in cloudy and rainy condition, its wind data are valuable in monitoring and real time forecasting the wind field, especially in sparse genesis regions of tropical cyclones. In order to unde...Since QuikSCAT is available in cloudy and rainy condition, its wind data are valuable in monitoring and real time forecasting the wind field, especially in sparse genesis regions of tropical cyclones. In order to understand and investigate the impact of QuikSCAT wind data, the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) of scatterometric wind data has been employed for the tropical cyclone 'Vongfong' in the year 2002. The result shows that the QuikSCAT wind data have positive impact on the analysis and forecasting. But the positive impact is slight. The present results suggest that how to assimilate QuikSCAT wind data effectively is important and will be a challenge to meteorologists.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China under Grant Nos.2018YFC1507302 and 2018YFC1506803National Natural Science Foundation of China No.42275171+1 种基金the Liaoning Province Key R&D Program of Liaoning of China under Grant No.2020JH2/10300091the Bohai Rim Meteorological Science Collaborative Innovation Fund under Grant No.QYXM201901.
文摘A cold cloud assimilation scheme was developed that fully considers the water substances,i.e.,water vapor,cloud water,rain,ice,snow,and graupel,based on the single-moment WSM6 microphysical scheme and four-dimensional variational(4D-Var)data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting data assimilation(WRFDA)system.The verification of the regularized WSM6 and its tangent linearity model(TLM)and adjoint mode model(ADM)was proven successful.Two groups of single observation and real sounding data assimilation experiments were set up to further verify the correctness of the assimilation scheme.The results showed that the consideration of ice,snow,and graupel in the assimilation system of the 4D-Var,as opposed to their omission in the warm rain Kessler scheme,allowed the water substances to be reasonably updated,further improving the forecast.Before it can be further applied in the assimilation of observational data,radar reflectivities,and satellite radiances,the cold cloud assimilation scheme needs additional verification,including using conventional ground and sounding observations in the 4D-Var assimilation system.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41705082, 41475101, 41690122(41690120))a Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Project-the Western Pacific Ocean System (Grant Nos. XDA11010105 and XDA11020306)+1 种基金the National Programme on Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction (Grant Nos. GASI-IPOVAI06 and GASI-IPOVAI-01-01)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, and a Qingdao Postdoctoral Application Research Project
文摘Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4D variational （4D-Vat） data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model （ICM） and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer （Te）, which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level （SL） variation. The strength of the thermocline effect on SST （referred to simply as ＂the thermocline effect＂） is represented by an introduced parameter, （l＇Te. A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having their initial condition optimized only, and having their initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized, are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameters and initial conditions together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Vat data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (10871099 40805046+2 种基金 40830958)Specialized Projects of Public Welfare Industry (Meteorological Sector) (GYH(QX)2007-6-15)973 Program of National Key Foundamental Research and Development (2009CB421502)
文摘Axisymmetric bogus vortexes at sea level are usually used in the traditional bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. In the traditional scheme, the vortex could not accurately describe the specific characteristics of a typhoon, and the evolving real typhoon is forced to unreasonably adapt to this changeless vortex. For this reason, an asymmetrical typhoon bogus method with information blended from the analysis and the observation is put forward in this paper, in which the impact of the Subtropical High is also taken into consideration. With the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its adjoint model, a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) technique is employed to build a dynamic asymmetrical BDA scheme to assimilate different asymmetrical bogus vortexes at different time. The track and intensity of six summer typhoons much influenced by the Subtropical High are simulated and the results are compared. It is shown that the improvement in track simulation in the new scheme is more significant than that in the traditional scheme. Moreover, the periods for which the track cannot be simulated well by the traditional scheme can be improved with the new scheme. The results also reveal that although the simulated typhoon intensity in the new scheme is generally weaker than that in the traditional scheme, this trend enables the new scheme to simulate, in the later period, closer-to-observation intensity than the traditional scheme. However, despite the fact that the observed intensity has been largely weakened, the simulated intensity at later periods of the BDA schemes is still very intensive, resulting in overly development of the typhoon during the simulation. The limitation to the simulation effect of the BDA scheme due to this condition needs to be further studied.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41405062, 41775017)。
文摘Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4 D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously,and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4 D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation,which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4 D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFC1501901,2017YFA0603901)。
文摘The global three-dimensional variational(3D-Var)data assimilation is implemented on a new quasi-uniform overset(Yin-Yang)grid on sphere.As a quasi-uniform spherical grid,it covers the sphere by overlapping two perpendicularly oriented grid components which is nothing but low latitude region of the usual latitude-longitude grid.Based on this characteristic of the Yin-Yang grid,it enables us to implement the regional 3D-Var system efficiently and accurately on the Yin or Yang component grid,respectively.The global analysis could update directly from the regional analysis since they have the same configurations like the precondition of eigenvalue decomposition for vertical direction,recursive filtering for horizontal direction,minimization method and observation operator and so on.However,the balance equation and vector wind are needed to be paid more attention on the Yin grid analysis due to its coordinate transformation.How to spread the observation information near the boundary of Yin and Yang grid is a key to the 3D-Var analysis.Extending double the horizontal correlation length distance in the overset boundary of Yin and Yang grid has successfully solved the problem.The results show that the analysis on the Yin-Yang grid is reasonable and similar to the result on the latitude-longitude(LAT-LON)grid.This paper provides a promising strategy for the development of a 3D-Var global system for overset grids.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China under Natural contract Nos 2007CB816001 and 2006CB400603Natinal Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 40346027 and 40676008the China"908"-Project under Grant No.908-02-01-03 and 908-IC-I-13
文摘Four-dimensional variational(4D-VAR) data assimilation method is a perfect data assimilation solution in theory, but the computational issue is quite difficult in operational implementation.The incremental 4D-VAR assimilation scheme is set up in order to reduce the computational cost. It is shown that the accuracy of the observations, the length of the assimilation window and the choice of the first guess have an important influence on the assimilation outcome through the contrast experiment. Compared with the standard 4D-VAR assimilation scheme, the incremental 4D-VAR assimilation scheme shows its advantage in the computation speed through an assimilation experiment.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41506039, 41776004, 41775100 and 41606039)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFC1401800)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2016B12514)the National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction of China (No. GASI-IPO VAI-04)
文摘This paper proposes a new method for data assimilation of the surface radial current observed by High Frequency ground wave radar and optimization of the bottom friction coefficient.In this method,the shallow water wave equation is introduced into the cost function of the multigrid three-dimensional variation data assimilation method as the weak constraint term,the surface current and the bottom friction coefficient are defined as the analytical variables,and the high spatiotemporal resolution surface radial flow observed by the high-frequency ground wave radar is used to optimize the surface current and bottom friction coefficient.This method can effectively consider the spatiotemporal correlation of radar data and extract multiscale information from surface radial flow data from long waves to short waves.Introducing the shallow water wave equation into the cost function as a weak constraint condition can adjust both the momentum and mass fields simultaneously to obtain more reasonable analysis information.The optimized bottom friction coefficient is introduced into the regional ocean numerical model to carry out numerical experiments.The test results show that the bottom friction coefficient obtained by this method can effectively improve the accuracy of the numerical simulation of sea surface height in the offshore area and reduce the simulation error.
文摘Two sets of assimilation experiments on a landfalling typhoon--Typhoon Dan （1999） over the western North Pacific were designed to compare the performances of two kinds of variational data assimilation schemes that are the 3-Dimensional Variational data assimilation of Mapped observation （3DVM） and the 4-dimensional variational data assimilation （4DVar）. Results show that： （1） both the 3DVM and 4DVar successfully improved the simulations of typhoon intensity and track incorporating the satellite AMSU-A retrieved temperature and wind data into the initial conditions, and the 3DVM more significantly due to the flow-dependent of background error covariance matrix and observation error covariance matrix like 3- dimensional variational data assimilation （3DVar） circle; （2） inclusions of extra model integration iterations at each observation time in the 3DVM make it more consistent with prediction model; （3） the 3DVM is much more time-saving due to the exclusion of the adjoint technique in it.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program under contract No.2021YFC3101501the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41876014。
文摘In variational methods,coupled parameter optimization(CPO) often needs a long minimization time window(MTW) to fully incorporate observational information,but the optimal MTW somehow depends on the model nonlinearity.The analytical four-dimensional ensemble-variational(A-4DEnVar) considers model nonlinearity well and avoids adjoint model.It can theoretically be applied to CPO.To verify the feasibility and the ability of the A-4DEnVar in CPO,“twin” experiments based on A-4DEnVar CPO are conducted for the first time with the comparison of four-dimensional variational(4D-Var).Two algorithms use the same background error covariance matrix and optimization algorithm to control variates.The experiments are based on a simple coupled oceanatmosphere model,in which the atmospheric part is the highly nonlinear Lorenz-63 model,and the oceanic part is a slab ocean model.The results show that both A-4DEnVar and 4D-Var can effectively reduce the error of state variables through CPO.Besides,two methods produce almost the same results in most cases when the MTW is less than 560 time steps.The results are similar when the MTW is larger than 560 time steps and less than 880 time steps.The largest MTW of 4 D-Var and A-4DEnVar are 1 200 time steps.Moreover,A-4DEnVar is not sensitive to ensemble size when the MTW is less than 720 time steps.A-4DEnVar obtains satisfactory results in the case of highly nonlinear model and long MTW,suggesting that it has the potential to be widely applied to realistic CPO.
文摘Since QuikSCAT is available in cloudy and rainy condition, its wind data are valuable in monitoring and real time forecasting the wind field, especially in sparse genesis regions of tropical cyclones. In order to understand and investigate the impact of QuikSCAT wind data, the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) of scatterometric wind data has been employed for the tropical cyclone 'Vongfong' in the year 2002. The result shows that the QuikSCAT wind data have positive impact on the analysis and forecasting. But the positive impact is slight. The present results suggest that how to assimilate QuikSCAT wind data effectively is important and will be a challenge to meteorologists.
