利用WRF 3D-Var同化多普勒雷达反演风场试验研究

为了将C波段雷达风场资料更好地应用于数值预报模式中,利用两步变分法反演多普勒雷达风场资料,并处理成标准的常规探空资料,以WRF模式及其三维变分同化系统为平台,针对2013年6月19日发生在天水的一次强暴雨过程进行同化雷达反演风的试验研究.试验结果表明：同化雷达反演风场后,对降水预报的改进能维持12 h,尤其同化雷达反演风场后3～9 h效果非常显著;0～3 h作用不是很明显;9～12 h预报具有一定的正作用.另外,循环同化比同化一次效果好,但并不是同化次数越多越好.因此,同化C波段雷达反演风场后,对降水预报具有一定的正作用.

Idealized Experiments for Optimizing Model Parameters Using a 4D-Variational Method in an Intermediate Coupled Model of ENSO

Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4D variational （4D-Vat） data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model （ICM） and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer （Te）, which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level （SL） variation. The strength of the thermocline effect on SST （referred to simply as ＂the thermocline effect＂） is represented by an introduced parameter, （l＇Te. A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having their initial condition optimized only, and having their initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized, are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameters and initial conditions together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Vat data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.

EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON A DYNAMIC ASYMMETRICAL TYPHOON INITIALIZATION SCHEME BASED ON 4D-VAR

Axisymmetric bogus vortexes at sea level are usually used in the traditional bogus data assimilation （BDA） scheme. In the traditional scheme, the vortex could not accurately describe the specific characteristics of a typhoon, and the evolving real typhoon is forced to unreasonably adapt to this changeless vortex. For this reason, an asymmetrical typhoon bogus method with information blended from the analysis and the observation is put forward in this paper, in which the impact of the Subtropical High is also taken into consideration. With the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model （MM5） and its adjoint model, a four-dimensional variational data assimilation （4D-Var） technique is employed to build a dynamic asymmetrical BDA scheme to assimilate different asymmetrical bogus vortexes at different time. The track and intensity of six surmner typhoons much influenced by the Subtropical High are simulated and the results are compared. It is shown that the improvement in track simulation in the new scheme is more significant than that in the traditional scheme. Moreover, the periods for which the track cannot be simulated well by the traditional scheme can be improved with the new scheme. The results also reveal that although the simulated typhoon intensity in the new scheme is generally weaker than that in the traditional scheme, this trend enables the new scheme to simulate, in the later period, closer-to-observation intensity than the traditional scheme. However, despite the fact that the observed intensity has been largely weakened, the simulated intensity at later periods of the BDA schemes is still very intensive, resulting in overly development of the typhoon during the simulation. The limitation to the simulation effect of the BDA scheme due to this condition needs to be further studied.

Move a Tropical Cyclone with 4D-Var and Vortex Dynamical Initialization in WRF Model

Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4 D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously,and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4 D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation,which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4 D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.

Implementation of CMA-GFS 3D-Var System on the Yin-Yang Grid

The global three-dimensional variational(3D-Var)data assimilation is implemented on a new quasi-uniform overset(Yin-Yang)grid on sphere.As a quasi-uniform spherical grid,it covers the sphere by overlapping two perpendicularly oriented grid components which is nothing but low latitude region of the usual latitude-longitude grid.Based on this characteristic of the Yin-Yang grid,it enables us to implement the regional 3D-Var system efficiently and accurately on the Yin or Yang component grid,respectively.The global analysis could update directly from the regional analysis since they have the same configurations like the precondition of eigenvalue decomposition for vertical direction,recursive filtering for horizontal direction,minimization method and observation operator and so on.However,the balance equation and vector wind are needed to be paid more attention on the Yin grid analysis due to its coordinate transformation.How to spread the observation information near the boundary of Yin and Yang grid is a key to the 3D-Var analysis.Extending double the horizontal correlation length distance in the overset boundary of Yin and Yang grid has successfully solved the problem.The results show that the analysis on the Yin-Yang grid is reasonable and similar to the result on the latitude-longitude(LAT-LON)grid.This paper provides a promising strategy for the development of a 3D-Var global system for overset grids.

Incremental 4D-VAR assimilation scheme based on Lorenz model

Four-dimensional variational(4D-VAR) data assimilation method is a perfect data assimilation solution in theory, but the computational issue is quite difficult in operational implementation.The incremental 4D-VAR assimilation scheme is set up in order to reduce the computational cost. It is shown that the accuracy of the observations, the length of the assimilation window and the choice of the first guess have an important influence on the assimilation outcome through the contrast experiment. Compared with the standard 4D-VAR assimilation scheme, the incremental 4D-VAR assimilation scheme shows its advantage in the computation speed through an assimilation experiment.

A New Multigrid 3D-VAR Optimization Method for Bottom Friction Using HF Radar Current Observation

This paper proposes a new method for data assimilation of the surface radial current observed by High Frequency ground wave radar and optimization of the bottom friction coefficient.In this method,the shallow water wave equation is introduced into the cost function of the multigrid three-dimensional variation data assimilation method as the weak constraint term,the surface current and the bottom friction coefficient are defined as the analytical variables,and the high spatiotemporal resolution surface radial flow observed by the high-frequency ground wave radar is used to optimize the surface current and bottom friction coefficient.This method can effectively consider the spatiotemporal correlation of radar data and extract multiscale information from surface radial flow data from long waves to short waves.Introducing the shallow water wave equation into the cost function as a weak constraint condition can adjust both the momentum and mass fields simultaneously to obtain more reasonable analysis information.The optimized bottom friction coefficient is introduced into the regional ocean numerical model to carry out numerical experiments.The test results show that the bottom friction coefficient obtained by this method can effectively improve the accuracy of the numerical simulation of sea surface height in the offshore area and reduce the simulation error.

The Regularized WSM6 Microphysical Scheme and Its Validation in WRF 4D-Var

A cold cloud assimilation scheme was developed that fully considers the water substances,i.e.,water vapor,cloud water,rain,ice,snow,and graupel,based on the single-moment WSM6 microphysical scheme and four-dimensional variational(4D-Var)data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting data assimilation(WRFDA)system.The verification of the regularized WSM6 and its tangent linearity model(TLM)and adjoint mode model(ADM)was proven successful.Two groups of single observation and real sounding data assimilation experiments were set up to further verify the correctness of the assimilation scheme.The results showed that the consideration of ice,snow,and graupel in the assimilation system of the 4D-Var,as opposed to their omission in the warm rain Kessler scheme,allowed the water substances to be reasonably updated,further improving the forecast.Before it can be further applied in the assimilation of observational data,radar reflectivities,and satellite radiances,the cold cloud assimilation scheme needs additional verification,including using conventional ground and sounding observations in the 4D-Var assimilation system.

FY-3A卫星MWHS资料同化及四川盆地暴雨数值模拟分析

为研究中国FY-3A(风云三号A卫星)资料在数值模式中对暴雨模拟的作用,以2012年07月03日发生在四川盆地的一次暴雨过程为个例。利用WRF(V3.3)模式和三维变分同化系统WRF-3DVAR,对FY-3A的MWHS(微波湿度计)资料进行同化试验研究。研究结果表明:同化MWHS资料后,相比控制试验,(1)同化方案A在降水区出现+3K的正增量中心和+10%的正增量湿中心,改善了大气能量场和湿度场信息;(2)同化方案A提高了降水区垂直速度和涡度场的数值和分布位置,并较好的刻画出风场的辐合辐散区域和水汽通量高值中心,准确模拟出水汽通量的中心位置;(3)对此次暴雨个例试验研究,在中东部、东北部主降水区,同化方案A模拟降水区分布形式较好,尤其是降水强度得到较大提高降水值达230mm,非常接近实况降水值(227mm),同化MWHS资料可以较好提高WRF模式降水预报能力。

Numerical Experiments for Typhoon Dan Incorporating AMSU-A Retrieved Data with 3DVM

Two sets of assimilation experiments on a landfalling typhoon--Typhoon Dan （1999） over the western North Pacific were designed to compare the performances of two kinds of variational data assimilation schemes that are the 3-Dimensional Variational data assimilation of Mapped observation （3DVM） and the 4-dimensional variational data assimilation （4DVar）. Results show that： （1） both the 3DVM and 4DVar successfully improved the simulations of typhoon intensity and track incorporating the satellite AMSU-A retrieved temperature and wind data into the initial conditions, and the 3DVM more significantly due to the flow-dependent of background error covariance matrix and observation error covariance matrix like 3- dimensional variational data assimilation （3DVar） circle; （2） inclusions of extra model integration iterations at each observation time in the 3DVM make it more consistent with prediction model; （3） the 3DVM is much more time-saving due to the exclusion of the adjoint technique in it.

An application of the A-4DEnVar to coupled parameter optimization

In variational methods,coupled parameter optimization(CPO) often needs a long minimization time window(MTW) to fully incorporate observational information,but the optimal MTW somehow depends on the model nonlinearity.The analytical four-dimensional ensemble-variational(A-4DEnVar) considers model nonlinearity well and avoids adjoint model.It can theoretically be applied to CPO.To verify the feasibility and the ability of the A-4DEnVar in CPO,“twin” experiments based on A-4DEnVar CPO are conducted for the first time with the comparison of four-dimensional variational(4D-Var).Two algorithms use the same background error covariance matrix and optimization algorithm to control variates.The experiments are based on a simple coupled oceanatmosphere model,in which the atmospheric part is the highly nonlinear Lorenz-63 model,and the oceanic part is a slab ocean model.The results show that both A-4DEnVar and 4D-Var can effectively reduce the error of state variables through CPO.Besides,two methods produce almost the same results in most cases when the MTW is less than 560 time steps.The results are similar when the MTW is larger than 560 time steps and less than 880 time steps.The largest MTW of 4 D-Var and A-4DEnVar are 1 200 time steps.Moreover,A-4DEnVar is not sensitive to ensemble size when the MTW is less than 720 time steps.A-4DEnVar obtains satisfactory results in the case of highly nonlinear model and long MTW,suggesting that it has the potential to be widely applied to realistic CPO.

基于GEOS-Chem V12.6.3的全球CO_(2)浓度同化系统的构建

为了研究同化OCO-2卫星柱浓度(XCO_(2))数据对于全球CO_(2)浓度模拟的影响,本文基于GEOS-Chem V12.6.3,采用四维变分(four dimensional variational,4D-Var)的方法,构建了一个同化OCO-2卫星XCO_(2)数据的全球大气CO_(2)浓度同化系统。首先,采用有限差分法验证了观测算子、积云对流、行星边界层和平流4个伴随模块计算结果的正确性。然后,以2018年为例,设计了模拟和同化两个实验,并利用TCCON、地面和航飞3种独立的观测数据进行对比验证。结果显示,同化实验结果与TCCON、地面和航飞观测数据之间的平均误差分别为0.37 mL/m^(3)、0.41 mL/m^(3)和0.51 mL/m^(3),相比于模拟实验,分别改善了40.32%、42.25%和45.15%,表明了同化OCO-2卫星的XCO_(2)数据能显著提高对全球大气CO_(2)浓度模拟的准确性。

The four dimensional variational data assimilation with multiple regularization parameters as a weak constraint(Tikh-4D-Var) and its preliminary application on typhoon initialization

Traditional variational data assimilation （VDA） with only one regularization parameter constraint cannot produce optimal error tuning for all observations. In this paper, a new data assimilation method of ＂four dimensional variational data assimilation （4D-Var） with multiple regularization parameters as a weak constraint （Tikh-4D-Var）＂ is proposed by imposing different reg- ularization parameters for different observations. Meanwhile, a new multiple regularization parameters selection method, which is suitable for actual high-dimensional data assimilation system, is proposed based on the posterior information of 4D-Var system. Compared with the traditional single regularization parameter selection method, computation of the proposed multiple regularization parameters selection method is smaller. Based on WRF3.3.1 4D-Vat data assimilation system, initiali- zation and simulation of typhoon Chaba （2010） with the new Tikh-4D-Var method are compared with its counterpart 4D-Var to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new method. Results show that the new Tikh-4D-Var method can accelerate the con vergence with less iterations. Moreover, compared with 4D-Var method, the typhoon track, intensity （including center surface pressure and maximum wind speed） and structure prediction are obviously improved with Tikh-4D-Var method for 72-h pre- diction. In addition, the accuracy of the observation error variances can be reflected by the multiple regularization parameters.

同化多普勒雷达风资料的两种方法比较

以美国新近研发的天气研究预报模式（WRF）配置的三维变分同化系统WRF 3D-Var为平台,比较了两种不同的同化多普勒雷达径向风资料的方法。一种是WRF 3D-Var系统现有的径向风资料直接同化方法;另一种是首先用两步变分法由多普勒资料反演出水平风,再同化反演风场。针对2003年7月4-5日的一次淮河暴雨过程进行的同化试验结果表明,同化了雷达风资料后得到的水平风场包含了更多的中尺度特征;从降水预报评分和预报的雷达回波来看,两种方法都能够明显改进降水预报,这种正作用能维持6 h左右;相对而言,同化反演的水平风场的效果略优于直接同化雷达径向风的效果。

华南地区中尺度模式预报的初值影响分析

基于GRAPES3D-Var同化系统,介绍了根据静力平衡关系由高度场的增量来计算温度场的增量的方法,并结合常规探空资料同化,针对影响华南地区的一次冷空气过程的个例,分析了常规观测资料对初始场的影响。采用GRAPES区域中尺度模式进行了控制试验和同化试验,观测资料的检验表明,资料同化对GRAPES中尺度模式预报有正面影响,初始时刻预报敏感性较大并且变化较快,靠近地面的低层预报敏感性较为复杂,常规探空资料对高层大气预报能力的提高相对于中低层较小。

探空气球漂移及其对数值预报影响的研究

为了考察探空资料随高度的漂移对高分辨率数值预报模式的影响,充分发掘探空资料的应用价值,根据探空资料的探测原理,设计定位方案,计算出了各气压层上探空气球所处的实际位置。对位置订正前后的资料分别用3D-VAR系统进行同化,将同化结果作为WRF模式的初始场进行数值预报并对预报效果进行对比分析。结果表明:探空气球在施放过程中的漂移距离远远超过目前数值模式可取的水平分辨率;所设计的探空气球定位方案对水平分辨率为10km×10km的数值预报模式基本是可用的;总的来讲,位置订正对分析增量场的改变与原分析增量场相比小一个量级。模式预报结果显示,探空资料的定位使降水预报效果得到了改善。研究表明,将各气压层上探空资料订正到实际位置对高分辨率数值预报模式的预报效果有一定程度的正面影响,但仍需要更多的个例来验证。

联合资料同化理论及其研究进展

联合资料同化是在"集合预报与资料同化一体化"的思想框架下研究发展的一种数值预报新理论和新方法。它在变分同化系统框架的基础上,充分利用集合预报结果,构造"流依赖"的背景误差协方差,提高对不同尺度天气系统背景误差协方差的刻画能力,进而改善分析和预报的质量。目前该方法已引起国际各主要气象业务中心广泛关注,极具业务应用潜力。本文以联合ETKF-3D-Var为例简要介绍了联合资料同化理论及其研究进展,也说明了联合资料同化的应用前景。

bbGPS/PWV资料三维变分同化改进MM5降水预报连续试验的评估

利用区域地基GPS网反演的高时空密度的大气垂直方向水汽总量,也称为可降水量(PWV),可大大弥补常规探空探测水汽资料的不足。为了全面评估区域GPS网PWV资料同化对业务数值天气预报改进程度的目的,在个例研究分析的基础上,进行了连续38天的GPS/PWV资料三维同化(3D-Var)改进数值业务预报的试验。研究方法是根据长江三角洲地区GPS气象网在2002年梅雨和盛夏季节观测的PWV资料,通过三维变分同化建立中尺度数值预报模式MM5的初始场,逐日作出长江三角洲地区24小时的降水量预报。以6小时累积雨量为对象,与未同化GPS/PWV资料的MM5的相应预报比较,通过多种评分方法,评估了GPS/PWV资料改进MM5降水预报的效果。结果表明GPS/PWV资料同化后的MM5降水预报能力在大部分时间和大部分地区都有所提高,主要是伪击率有较明显的下降,对小范围降水预报的改进更为明显。预报明显改进的区域恰好位于GPS站填补常规探空站间距较大的地区。

变分数据同化方法中背景误差协方差矩阵的统计特性研究

变分数据同化方法中,背景误差协方差矩阵(简称B矩阵)作为反映模型不同状态变量间关系的重要数学量,对保证解的唯一性和分析值的平滑性具有重要意义.文中简述了B矩阵的结构特征和相关性质.针对难以获得真实B矩阵的情况,采用National meteorological center(简称NMC)方法对B矩阵进行了近似构造,以Lorenz63模型和三维变分同化算法进行了同化试验,验证了NMC方法的有效性,讨论了B矩阵的数学特性和分布特征.

一次飑线过程的雷达回波分析及其反演风场研究

用常规气象观测资料,中尺度自动气象站资料和多普勒天气雷达资料,对2009年4月15日发生在重庆中西部的飑线过程的进行了分析,发现了"逆风区"在预报中具有一定的提前量。同时通过四维变分(4D-VAR)同化方法反演风场,得到反演的水平风场能较好的反映飑线内部各个发展阶段的对流单体的内部流场结构,同时发现4D-VAR反演风场能较好的反映出飑线不同发展阶段的流场特征。