海洋热浪是发生在海洋上的极端高温事件,对海洋环境和生态系统具有破坏性影响。文章采用1960—2020年第五代欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析资料(European centre for medium-range weather forecasts reanalysis v5,ERA5)和英国气象局哈德...海洋热浪是发生在海洋上的极端高温事件,对海洋环境和生态系统具有破坏性影响。文章采用1960—2020年第五代欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析资料(European centre for medium-range weather forecasts reanalysis v5,ERA5)和英国气象局哈德来中心全球海冰和海洋表面温度资料集(Hadley centre global sea ie and sea surface temperature,HadISST)以及地球系统模式(community Earth system model,CESM1)北大西洋理想试验数据等,通过相关、合成分析等多种统计方法,研究了厄尔尼诺–南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)与次年初夏西太平洋海洋热浪年际关系的变化特征,并进一步探讨了二者关系发生年代际变化的可能成因。研究结果表明:1)ENSO与次年初夏西太平洋海洋热浪月数的年际关系具有明显的年代际变化特征,北大西洋多年代际振荡(Atantic multidecadal oscillation,AMO)是二者年际关系发生年代际变化的主要成因。当AMO处于正位相时,ENSO与次年初夏西太平洋海洋热浪存在显著的正相关关系,而当AMO处于负位相时,上述二者相关关系不再显著;2)AMO主要通过调控ENSO事件的强度进而影响西北太平洋大气环流的异常响应,从而进一步影响ENSO与次年初夏西太平洋海洋热浪之间的关系。当AMO处于负(正)位相时,相对较强(弱)的ENSO事件通过强(弱)风–蒸发–海温正反馈过程,使得ENSO事件次年初夏西北太平洋地区产生位置相对偏东(西)、强度相对偏强(弱)的异常反气旋/气旋。异常反气旋/气旋的位置和强度导致初夏西太平洋海洋热浪的分布在AMO正、负位相存在显著差异。展开更多
In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming ...In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.展开更多
文摘海洋热浪是发生在海洋上的极端高温事件,对海洋环境和生态系统具有破坏性影响。文章采用1960—2020年第五代欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析资料(European centre for medium-range weather forecasts reanalysis v5,ERA5)和英国气象局哈德来中心全球海冰和海洋表面温度资料集(Hadley centre global sea ie and sea surface temperature,HadISST)以及地球系统模式(community Earth system model,CESM1)北大西洋理想试验数据等,通过相关、合成分析等多种统计方法,研究了厄尔尼诺–南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)与次年初夏西太平洋海洋热浪年际关系的变化特征,并进一步探讨了二者关系发生年代际变化的可能成因。研究结果表明:1)ENSO与次年初夏西太平洋海洋热浪月数的年际关系具有明显的年代际变化特征,北大西洋多年代际振荡(Atantic multidecadal oscillation,AMO)是二者年际关系发生年代际变化的主要成因。当AMO处于正位相时,ENSO与次年初夏西太平洋海洋热浪存在显著的正相关关系,而当AMO处于负位相时,上述二者相关关系不再显著;2)AMO主要通过调控ENSO事件的强度进而影响西北太平洋大气环流的异常响应,从而进一步影响ENSO与次年初夏西太平洋海洋热浪之间的关系。当AMO处于负(正)位相时,相对较强(弱)的ENSO事件通过强(弱)风–蒸发–海温正反馈过程,使得ENSO事件次年初夏西北太平洋地区产生位置相对偏东(西)、强度相对偏强(弱)的异常反气旋/气旋。异常反气旋/气旋的位置和强度导致初夏西太平洋海洋热浪的分布在AMO正、负位相存在显著差异。
基金supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.ZDBS-LY-DQC010)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42175045).
文摘In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.
