Health diagnosis of ultrahigh arch dam performance using heterogeneous spatial panel vector model

Currently,more than ten ultrahigh arch dams have been constructed or are being constructed in China.Safety control is essential to long-term operation of these dams.This study employed the flexibility coefficient and plastic complementary energy norm to assess the structural safety of arch dams.A comprehensive analysis was conducted,focusing on differences among conventional methods in characterizing the structural behavior of the Xiaowan arch dam in China.Subsequently,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the measured performance of the Xiaowan dam were explored,including periodicity,convergence,and time-effect characteristics.These findings revealed the governing mechanism of main factors.Furthermore,a heterogeneous spatial panel vector model was developed,considering both common factors and specific factors affecting the safety and performance of arch dams.This model aims to comprehensively illustrate spatial heterogeneity between the entire structure and local regions,introducing a specific effect quantity to characterize local deformation differences.Ultimately,the proposed model was applied to the Xiaowan arch dam,accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of dam performance.Additionally,the spatiotemporal distri-bution characteristics of environmental load effects on different parts of the dam were reasonably interpreted.Validation of the model prediction enhances its credibility,leading to the formulation of health diagnosis criteria for future long-term operation of the Xiaowan dam.The findings not only enhance the predictive ability and timely control of ultrahigh arch dams'performance but also provide a crucial basis for assessing the effectiveness of engineering treatment measures.

Deformation critical threshold estimation of Xiaowan ultrahigh arch dam with time-varying grey model

The structural behavior of the Xiaowan ultrahigh arch dam is primarily influenced by external loads and time-varying characteristics of dam concrete and foundation rock mass during long-term operation. According to overload testing with a geological model and the measured time series of installed perpendicular lines, the space and time evolution characteristics of the arch dam structure were analyzed, and its mechanical performance was evaluated. Subsequently, the deformation centroid of the deflective curve was suggested to indicate the magnitude and unique distribution rules for a typical dam section using the measured deformation values at multi-monitoring points. The ellipse equations of the critical ellipsoid for the centroid were derived from the historical measured time series. Hydrostatic and seasonal components were extracted from the measured deformation values with a traditional statistical model, and residuals were adopted as a grey component. A time-varying grey model was developed to accurately predict the evolution of the deformation behavior of the ultrahigh arch dam during future operation. In the developed model, constant coefficients were modified so as to be time-dependent functions, and the prediction accuracy was significantly improved through introduction of a forgetting factor. Finally, the critical threshold was estimated, and predicted ellipsoids were derived for the Xiaowan arch dam. The findings of this study can provide technical support for safety evaluation of the actual operation of ultrahigh arch dams and help to provide early warning of abnormal changes.

Calculation Model of Equivalent Strength for Induced Crack Based on Double-K Fracture Theory and Its Optimizing Setting in RCC Arch Dam

By means of fracture testing on roller-compacted concrete （RCC） three-point bending beams with two different specimen sizes, the P-CMOD complete curve for RCC was gained. Furthermore, by applying double-K fracture theory, KiniⅠC,KunⅠC, as well as the critical effective crack length and the critical crack tip opening displacement, were evaluated. Based on the double-K fracture parameters above, the calculation model of equivalent strength for induced crack was established, thus the calculation method on its initiation, stable propagation and unstable fracture was ascertained. Moreover, the finite element simulation analysis of stress field in ShaPai arch dam and the on-site observational splaying points of induced crack at different altitudes validated the reliability of the model. Finally, crack inducer′s optimal setting in RCC arch dam was studied. It improves the design level of induced crack in RCC arch dam and satisfies the necessity of engineering practice.

Changes in the crown angulation and dental arch widths after nonextraction orthodontic treatment: Model analysis of mild crowding with high canines

This study was undertaken to examine which factors contributed to the correction of crowding in two patients who underwent nonextraction orthodontic treatment. A study model analysis was conducted to determine the effects of the orthodontic treatment for crowding with high canines on crown angulation and dental arch width in two patients. The results showed that the crown angulation was significantly increased, indicating distal tipping in the maxillary dental arch. This tendency was most commonly observed in the premolars among the lateral teeth. With respect to the dental arch width, the largest change was evident in the first molar and first premolar regions in cases 1 and 2, respectively. On the basis of these results, up-righting of mesially tipped lateral teeth and expansion of narrow dental arches could prove to be the keys to the success of space regaining or correction of high canines and mild crowding.

Time-dependent behavior comparison of long-span concrete arch bridge between prototype and model

Beipanjiang Bridge is a long-span concrete arch bridges with stiffened skeleton(CABSS)in China.It has a fixed end arch with the span of 445 m and the rise of 100 m.To evaluate the rationality of the construction sequence and the time-dependent behavior of CABSS,an experimental study of a model bridge was explored.But the measured displacement and stress ratios of arch rib between prototype and model bridge did not subject to linear similarity relation when the time-dependent behavior was considered.So,the three-dimensional finite element models were established,and verified by the measured data.Then,the displacements and stresses of the prototype and model were compared with each other,when the elastic analysis or coupling of temperature and shrinkage,creep effect was considered.Furthermore,a parametric study was studied.The results showed that when the temperature,shrinkage and creep effect of concrete are considered,the finite element analysis results of prototype and model agree well with the measured results.The displacement and stress ratios of prototype and model bridge in construction and bridge completed stage do not present the geometric similarity ratio 7.5 and 1.0,respectively.They are also much influenced by concrete predicting model and variation of temperature.

Wind Speed Forecasting Based on ARMA-ARCH Model in Wind Farms

Wind speed forecasting is signif icant for wind farm planning and power grid operation. The research in this paper uses Eviews software to build the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model of wind speed time series, and employs Lagrange multipliers to test the ARCH (autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) effects of the residuals of the ARMA model. Also, the corresponding ARMA-ARCH models are established, and the wind speed series are forecasted by using the ARMA model and ARMA-ARCH model respectively. The comparison of the forecasting accuracy of the above two models shows that the ARMA-ARCH model possesses higher forecasting accuracy than the ARMA model and has certain practical value.

The Comparison of Different Degree of Convexity and 3D Modeling of Involute Hyperbolic Arch Dam

Because of good quality of compressive resistance, the hyperbolic arch dam is being increasingly applied to engineering projects. In order to satisfy the needs of compressive resistance under the conditions of high water pressure, a stress analysis is required for the dam. During the stress analysis process however, due to the complexity of the three-dimensional modeling, it is very hard to form a model. Therefore, the stress analysis process is a barrier for the arch dam. In this article, based on the research of the new line-type arch dam, a mathematical model in different degree of convexity conditions of the dam is established; using the C ＋ ＋ language program, a computer three-dimensional model simulation is realized on AutoCAD. The accurate three-dimensional model is providing a finite element optimization design of the involute hyperbolic arch dam for the next step.

Seismic damage analysis of the outlet piers of arch dams using the finite element sub-model method

This study aims to analyze seismic damage of reinforced outlet piers of arch dams by the nonlinear finite element （FE） sub-model method. First, the dam-foundation system is modeled and analyzed, in which the effects of infinite foundation, contraction joints, and nonlinear concrete are taken into account. The detailed structures of the outlet pier are then simulated with a refined FE model in the sub-model analysis. In this way the damage mechanism of the plain （unreinforced） outlet pier is analyzed, and the effects of two reinforcement measures （i.e., post-tensioned anchor cables and reinforcing bar） on the dynamic damage to the outlet pier are investigated comprehensively. Results show that the plain pier is damaged severely by strong earthquakes while implementation of post-tensioned anchor cables strengthens the pier effectively. In addition, radiation damping strongly alleviates seismic damage to the piers.

基于ARCH类模型的农产品价格波动特征研究

基于2011年1月至2022年8月的月度价格指数,运用自回归条件异方差ARCH类模型对猪肉、牛肉、棉花、大豆、稻谷、羊肉六种农产品进行价格波动特征分析研究。结果表明:具有较为显著的ARCH效应是牛肉、大豆、猪肉、棉花这四种农产品;其中农产品价格具有波动集聚性特征的是牛肉、大豆、猪肉、棉花;牛肉、大豆、猪肉、棉花价格不具备高风险和高报酬的特征;农产品价格均具有非对称性是棉花、大豆、猪肉。基于研究分析结果,本文提出相关政策建议,为农产品市场价格调控提供参考。

Finite element model for arch bridge vibration dynamics considering effect of suspender length adjustment on geometry stiffness matrix

In this paper, we established a finite element (FEM) model to analyze the dynamic characteristics of arch bridges. In this model, the effects of adjustment to the length of a suspender on its geometry stiffness matrix are stressed. The FEM equations of mechanics characteristics, natural frequency and main mode are set up based on the first order matrix perturbation theory. Applicantion of the proposed model to analyze a real arch bridge proved the improvement in the simulation precision of dynamical characteristics of the arch bridge by considering the effects of suspender length variation.

A canine model of aortic arch aneurysm created with autologous pericardium

Background:To establish a canine model of aortic arch aneurysm that is suitable for research on new devices and techniques applied to the aortic arch.Materials and methods:Fifteen mongrel dogs underwent surgery.The autologous pericardial patch was sewn on the aortotomy site in the anterior wall of the aortic arch.The animals were followed up for 3 months postoperatively.Computed tomography angiography was used to visualize and measure the aneurysm model.Hematoxylin and eosin staining was used to observe the histological characteristics of the aneurysm model.Changes in aneurysm diameter over time were analyzed using analysis of variance.Results:One dog died of hemorrhage during surgery.Fourteen dogs survived the surgical procedure.Two of them died on the first postoperative day because of ruptures at the suturing margin.The diameter of the aneurysm model was twice as large as that of the aortic arch.There was no significant change in the maximum diameter of the aneurysm model during the follow-up period.Conclusions:We established a controllable and stable aortic arch aneurysm model created with an autologous pericardium patch.The aneurysm model can be used to research endoleaks after thoracic endovascular aortic repair and new endovascular techniques can be applied to the aortic arch.

A Study on the Effectiveness of Autonomous-Cooperative Teaching and Learning Model Based on large -class English Teaching in Higher Vocational College

This paper just focuses on introducing the new model and testing its effectiveness in teaching English. Within this new model, both in-class learning and out-of-class learning are emphasized. In this paper, an experimental study is conducted upon non-English majors to test the effectiveness of autonomous-cooperative teaching and learning model for college English teaching (CET). The experimental study has lasted for half a year. Finally, from the experiment it can prove that the autonomous-cooperative teaching and learning model is feasible for English teaching and learning in large English classes in Higher Vocational College. It can improve English Teaching of Higher Vocational College and the students in the EG would surpass those in the CG in the performance of English learning.

ARIMA With GARCH Family Modeling and Projection on Share Volume of DSE

A suitable statistical model has been explored for the investors as well as the researchers to resolve the future estimation of share volume by using daily stock volume data from Dhaka Stock Exchange （DSE）. The daily volume data from the June 1, 2004 to April 19, 2010 were retrieved from DSE website as a secondary data source. The Maximum Likelihood---Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity （ARCH） （Marquardt） method has been applied to construct the models for the stock volume data of DSE by using statistical package software E-Views of verson-5. First of all, an ＂Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average （ARIMA） model＂ was fitted and observed that heteroscedastic volatilities were still present there. To eliminate this dilemma, ARCH class of volatility models has been used and finally the ARIMA with EGARCH model has been explored. Findings of this study have recognized that ARIMA with EGARCH model implies low mean square error, low mean absolute error, low bias proportion, and low variance proportion for share volume data with comparing to other models. Hence, the modelling concept established in this study would be a decisive study for the investors as well as the researchers.

Dynamic soil arching in piled embankment under train load of high-speed railways

Piled embankments have many advantages that have been applied in high-speed railway construction engineering.However,the load transfer mechanism of piled embankments,such as soil arching and tension membranes,is still unclear,especially under dynamic loads.To investigate the soil arching and tension membrane under dynamic train loads on high-speed railways,a large-scale piled embankment model test with X-shaped piles as vertical reinforcement was performed,in which twenty-eight earth pressure cells were installed in the piled embankment and an M-shaped wave was adopted to simulate the high-speed railway train load.The results show that dynamic soil arching only occurs when two bogies of a carriage pass by and disappears at other times.The dynamic soil arching and membrane effect are the most significant under the concrete base.The arching height,stress concentration ratio and pile-soil load sharing ratio have a minimal value at 25 Hz.The dynamic soil arching degrades severely at 25 Hz,whose height at 25 Hz is only 0.35 times that at 5 Hz.The arching height fluctuates over a narrow range with increasing loading amplitude.The stress concentration ratio and the pile-soil load sharing ratio increase monotonically as the loading amplitude increases.

一类双函数系数ARCH-M模型的经验似然估计

针对一类双函数系数自回归条件异方差-均值(ARCH-M)模型的估计问题,提出一种基于经验似然的估计方法;在该估计方法中,所提出的模型允许金融时间序列的风险效应和收益效应同时为某一变量的函数结构,可以有效地刻画金融时间序列的风险和平均收益之间的关系,具有较广的适应性;同时,与经典矩估计法和极大似然估计法相比,基于经验似然的估计方法具有独特的优势,可以充分考虑金融序列的异方差性,并且所构造的置信区间不涉及任何渐近方差的估计,因此具有较好的稳健性和有效性;在一些正则条件下,对所构造的经验对数似然比统计量及函数系数估计量的渐近分布进行了理论分析;结果表明:关于风险效应函数系数和收益效应函数系数的经验对数似然比统计量均渐近收敛于中心卡方分布,同时函数系数估计量渐近收敛于正态分布;进而对风险效应函数系数和收益效应函数系数分别构造了相应函数系数的逐点置信区间。

洞桩法地铁车站边桩结构受力机制的模型试验设计

为了方便学生更形象地理解洞桩法地铁车站边桩结构的受力机制,该文以广州地区某洞桩法地铁车站工程为依托,设计了一种简化的洞桩法车站边桩结构模型试验。基于该试验方法,演示分析了边桩结构在洞桩法车站开挖过程中的施工力学行为规律,并对比研究了不同桩型布置参数下的桩后土压力、边桩结构的力学和变形规律。通过该试验,为学生展示了洞桩法边桩结构模型的设计、制作、试验具体操作及数据监测的全过程,从而让学生更好地掌握洞桩法车站边桩结构力学行为演变规律,以及采用不同边桩布置型式的力学行为差异。

粉煤灰堆积体大断面连拱隧道失稳破坏模式及施工力学研究

国内目前并无在粉煤灰堆积体中采用暗挖法修建大断面连拱隧道的先例,给隧道的设计和施工带来了巨大挑战。依托盐坪坝隧道工程,开展了室内相似模型试验,探讨了该地层下大断面连拱隧道塌落拱演化规律及开挖施工力学行为。研究结果表明:连拱隧道在粉煤灰堆积体中开挖极易发生失稳,将失稳过程划分为4个演化阶段,破坏模式具有突发性、剧烈性、对称性、同步性特征;塌落拱高度约为隧道开挖跨度的40%。采用单侧壁导坑法开挖时粉煤灰堆积体承载力严重不足,根据相似换算关系左、右洞拱顶沉降分别为16.86,14.91cm,需对地层实施注浆加固;地层沉降呈对称“双峰状”,先行洞相较于后行洞受开挖影响较大,中隔墙的承载作用能够有效降低地层位移,单洞压力拱向双洞压力拱转换过程中,中隔墙受到偏压作用容易向先行洞侧偏转,建议在先行洞开挖时中隔墙添加支撑物。

公路隧道箱型预制仰拱变形破坏的模型试验研究

基于自主设计的新型箱型预制仰拱结构,采用室内物理模型试验,结合数字照相量测技术,研究该箱型预制仰拱的力学特性及破坏模式,通过数值模拟研究实际工况中衬砌与仰拱共同作用的受力规律.结果表明:竖向荷载作用下产生的拉张效应是预制仰拱裂纹产生及发展的主要原因,水平压力对预制仰拱的裂纹发展作用不明显.预制块接缝处以及各个预制块中柱转角处是预制仰拱结构的最薄弱部位,接缝处和转角处影响预制仰拱结构的安全.预制仰拱位移变化关于中轴部位呈对称分布,位移由大到小依次为中间预制块、左1预制块、左2预制块、左3预制块.箱型预制仰拱破坏可以分为加载压密、弹塑性变形和塑性破坏3个阶段.当仰拱与衬砌共同作用时,仰拱的上部主要承受拉应力,仰拱的下部主要承受压应力.试验结果表明,所设计仰拱结构具有良好的受力性能.

侧部注浆对已建盾构隧道受荷变形影响试验研究

采用侧部注浆法整治盾构隧道横椭圆变形超限过程中,盾构隧道周围附加土压力及隧道变形特性暂不明晰。通过几何相似比为1∶10的缩尺寸模型试验开展了侧部注浆对已建盾构隧道的影响试验研究,试验结果分析表明:在注浆挤压作用下,将导致隧道周围的土压力在注浆点处局部增大,两边有一定程度的减小,产生了明显的水平被动土拱现象;在注浆附加荷载影响下,模型盾构隧道在注浆点附近发生了竖椭圆变形,而在离注浆点较远处则发生了横椭圆变形,且隧道发生了反弯现象;注浆过程中发生了“渗透→挤密→劈裂”扩散模式与“挤密→劈裂→渗透”扩散模式,并阐明了两种浆液扩散模式的扩散机制;隧道外壁附加荷载主要由浆液通过渗透扩散与劈裂扩散的浆液压力所形成,同时浆液挤压土体变形对隧道周围的浆液也将形成一定的挤压荷载。