Mass scale screening of common arboviral infections by an affordable,cost effective RT-PCR method

Objective:To develop a rapid,cost effective RT-PCR method for the mass scale diagnosis of such diseases at the vireraia stage to find out the actual disease burden in that area.Methods:For this purpose,cases with the history of only short febrile illness were considered.Thus 157 samples with the history of dengue/chikungunya like illness and only 58 samples with a history of acute encephalitis syndrome(AES)were selected.Results:Out of 157 samples,42 and 74 were detected as dengue and chikungunya,respectively and out of 58 AES cases only 23 could be detected as Japanese encephalitis by this RT-PCR method.Conclusions:This cost effective RT-PCR method can detect the total positive cases that remain undetected by EL1SA method.Moreover,this method is capable to detect the viral RNA from patients'sera even after the appearance of IgM antibody at one fifth costs as compared with the other commercially available kits.

A Review of Deepwater Pipeline Construction in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico-Contracts, Cost, and Installation Methods

The offshore pipeline network in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico is the largest and most transparent system in the world. A review of deepwater projects in the region provides insight into construction cost and installation methods and the evolution of contract strategies. Pipeline projects are identified as export systems, infield flowline systems, and combined export and infield systems, and three dozen deepwater pipeline installations from 1980–2014 are described based on Offshore Technology Conference(OTC) and Society of Petroleum Engineers(SPE) industry publications and press release data. Export lines and infield flowlines are equally represented and many projects used a combination of J-lay, S-lay and reel methods with rigid steel, flexible line, and pipe-in-pipe systems. The average 2014 inflation-adjusted cost for pipeline projects based on OTC/SPE publications was $2.76 million/mi and ranged from $520 000/mi to $12.94 million/mi. High cost pipelines tend to be short segments or specialized pipeline. Excluding the two cost endpoints, the majority of projects ranged from $1 to $6 million/mi. The average inflation-adjusted cost to install deepwater pipelines in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico based on available public data is estimated at $3.1 million/mi.

Analysis of Appraising Agricultural Intangible Asset Value by Cost Method

On the basis of describing the connotation of agricultural intangible asset and cost method,the technical ideas of appraising by cost method are introduced.The article analyzes the advantages(simple appraisal principle and easy to understand and grasp;overall consideration of various factors related to appraisal result value) and disadvantages(high appraisal cost;difficult to appraise and grasp various appraisal factors) of appraising by cost method.The article also summarizes the precondition of appraising by cost method:it is applicable to appraise the agricultural intangible asset which can be reproduced and afresh developed.Based on the cognition of agricultural intangible asset and the relevant rules of Ministry of Finance on appraisal of intangible asset by using cost method,the model of appraising agricultural intangible asset by cost method is constructed.That is:agricultural intangible asset value = replacement cost of agricultural intangible asset ×newness rate + opportunity cost of agricultural intangible asset.Determine and analyze parameters of the model,in order to offer references for appraisers to appraise agricultural intangible asset value more reasonably.

An ideal point method adopting grey relational entropy to estimate life cycle cost with effectiveness of torpedo

To making the decision of the developing blue prints,ideal point method was selected to estimate the life cycle cost with effectiveness of torpedo.At the same time,the concept of grey relational entropy of the grey system theory was adopted to compute the distance between each blue print and the ideal point(or negative ideal point).The blue print,nearest to the ideal point and farthest to the negative ideal point,is the best one.As an example,four blue prints of torpedo were estimated.The result indicates the practical value of this method.

Natural Monopoly and Mixed Ownership Reform--Based on Natural Experiment and Cost Function Analysis Method

Despite a multitude of theoretical discussions on China's mixed ownership reform, very few studies have addressed realistic questions concerning the implementation of the reform. The Resolutions of the Third Plenum of the 18 th CPC Central Committee and other reform strategies have outlined the reform of sectors with natural monopoly, including urban public utility sectors. The question is how mixed ownership reform should be carried out in sectors of natural monopoly, or which public utilities sectors should enjoy priority of mixed ownership reform. To answer this question, this paper employs data of large public utility enterprises in China from 1998 to 2008, and estimates the natural monopoly attribute at the industry level and corporate total factor productivity(TFP) using cost function analysis method excluding the impact of product price factor. Based on the difference-indifferences-in-differences(DDD) method of natural experiment, an empirical test is carried out for the relationship among natural monopoly, mixed ownership reform and corporate productivity. Our results suggest that:(1) Statistically, mixed ownership reform cannot significantly increase corporate TFP in sectors with natural monopoly;(2) mixed ownership reform should not be carried out indiscriminately on a nationwide basis and for all public utilities sectors. Such an attempt of reform without distinguishing natural monopoly and the level of competitiveness is fraught with policy uncertainties;(3) relative to sectors with natural monopoly, corporate productivity in competitive sectors after mixed ownership reform will improve more significantly and enjoy greater "policy dividends" of institutional reform. Therefore, mixed ownership reform should be carried out first in competitive sectors.

Distribution Network Equipment Location and Capacity Planning Method Considering Energy Internet Attribute from the Perspective of Life Cycle Cost

For facing the challenges brought by large-scale renewable energy having access to the system and considering the key technologies of energy Internet,it is very necessary to put forward the location method of distribution network equipment and capacity from the perspective of life cycle cost.Compared with the traditional energy network,the equipment capacity problem of energy interconnected distribution network which involves in electricity network,thermal energy network and natural gas network is comprehensively considered in this paper.On this basis,firstly,the operation architecture of energy interconnected distribution network is designed.Secondly,taking the grid connection location and configuration capacity of key equipment in the system as the control variables and the operation cost of system comprehensive planning in the whole life cycle as the goal,the equipment location and capacity optimization model of energy interconnected distribution network is established.Finally,an IEEE 33 bus energy mutual distribution grid system is taken for example analysis,and the improved chaotic particle swarmoptimization algorithm is used to solve it.The simulation results show that the method proposed in this paper is suitable for the equipment location and capacity planning of energy interconnected distribution network,and it can effectively improve the social and economic benefits of system operation.

Application of Earned Value Method in Project Cost Management and Schedule Management

At present,with the rapid development of China's economy,the development of the construction industry has made a new breakthrough.Project management requires the construction industry to continuously play its role and value in improving the ability of project management.Earned value method,which is an important way in the field of project management,enables whole project management to rise to a new height.The specific principle of earned value method will be elaborated by fully introducing the specific role of earned value method in engineering projects to provide a reference and basis for practitioners to improve their management ability.

Comparative Analysis for Evaluating Wind Energy Resources Using Intelligent Optimization Algorithms and Numerical Methods

Statistical distributions are used to model wind speed,and the twoparameters Weibull distribution has proven its effectiveness at characterizing wind speed.Accurate estimation of Weibull parameters,the scale(c)and shape(k),is crucial in describing the actual wind speed data and evaluating the wind energy potential.Therefore,this study compares the most common conventional numerical(CN)estimation methods and the recent intelligent optimization algorithms(IOA)to show how precise estimation of c and k affects the wind energy resource assessments.In addition,this study conducts technical and economic feasibility studies for five sites in the northern part of Saudi Arabia,namely Aljouf,Rafha,Tabuk,Turaif,and Yanbo.Results exhibit that IOAs have better performance in attaining optimal Weibull parameters and provided an adequate description of the observed wind speed data.Also,with six wind turbine technologies rating between 1 and 3MW,the technical and economic assessment results reveal that the CN methods tend to overestimate the energy output and underestimate the cost of energy($/kWh)compared to the assessments by IOAs.The energy cost analyses show that Turaif is the windiest site,with an electricity cost of$0.016906/kWh.The highest wind energy output is obtained with the wind turbine having a rated power of 2.5 MW at all considered sites with electricity costs not exceeding$0.02739/kWh.Finally,the outcomes of this study exhibit the potential of wind energy in Saudi Arabia,and its environmental goals can be acquired by harvesting wind energy.

基于合成控制法的DRG改革对住院费用的影响——以北京市三级公立医院为例

目的:分析DRG改革对北京市三级公立医院例均住院总费用及其增速、内部结构的短期效应与长期影响。方法:基于2009—2018年北京市三级公立医院住院费用的年度报表数据,采用合成控制法分析2011年的DRG改革对例均住院总费用及各项费用占比的影响。结果:与未试点的医院相比,短期内试点医院的例均住院总费用有所降低,药占比下降显著,耗材费用占比增速下降明显,手术、治疗、护理费用占比有所下降,检查、化验费用占比略有上升。长期看,试点医院例均住院总费用与增速超过非试点医院,药占比、手术、治疗、护理费用占比低于非试点医院,耗材费用占比大幅提高,检查、化验费用占比呈现较强的个体差异性。结论:DRG改革短期内对控制费用增长具有积极作用,长期效果有待改善,费用结构有待优化;未来应从发挥“双中心”的多元作用、与三级公立医院绩效考核结合、提高体现医生技术劳动价值的收入等方面完善DRG改革。

贸易自由化与中国出口农产品质量:基于双边贸易成本的研究

出口农产品质量直接关系农产品出口的长远发展。基于双边贸易成本的视角,利用中国与127个贸易伙伴847种农产品的数据,运用回归反推法测算了中国出口农产品的质量水平,并从理论和实证两个方面分析了贸易自由化对中国出口农产品质量的影响。研究发现,样本期间,中国出口农产品质量呈波动上升趋势,且贸易自由化总体上可显著促进中国出口农产品质量的提高,但对出口到不同收入组国家农产品质量的影响存在显著差异。具体而言,贸易自由化对中国出口到埃塞俄比亚等低收入组国家农产品质量的促进作用最为显著,对出口到孟加拉等中等偏低收入组和日本高收入组国家农产品质量的促进作用次之,对出口到印度尼西亚等中等偏高收入组国家的农产品质量反而具有阻碍作用。

工程造价超预算的原因分析和控制方法研究

在工程项目实施过程中,工程造价控制成为项目管理中的关键环节。本文从工程造价预算控制有益于项目顺利结算、有利于项目合理投入、有助于减少变更数量三个方面阐述了其意义。提出了造成超预算是因为施工组织设计脱离实际、工程施工进度失去控制、项目成本管理缺乏力度三个主要原因,提出了相应的控制方法,应严审施工组织设计以减少施工变更、严控工程施工进度以降低延期消耗、强化预算控制意识以提升投入效能。

基于机器学习的成本法在专利价值评估中的应用研究--以“新能源汽车”为例

[目的/意义]构建基于机器学习的成本法专利价值评估方法,快速识别海量专利的实际成本,并预测其价值区间,在为专利价值评估提供新研究思路的同时,也为专利转移转化定价提供了参考借鉴。[方法/过程]通过Innography数据库与Incopat数据库下载“新能源汽车”领域多指标专利数据,提取专利成本影响因素与专利价值影响因素,并形成专利数据训练集与专利数据预测集;构建AutoGluon机器学习分类算法,将包含成本数据的Innography专利数据训练集导入模型进行训练,并将训练好的模型对Incopat专利数据预测集进行成本预测;最后使用成本法并结合本研究提出的专利价值指数对预测结果进行计算,估算其价格区间。[结果/结论]通过实证分析与结果验证可知,本研究构建的基于机器学习的成本法专利价值评估方法在预测专利价值区间中具备一定有效性,为促进专利价值评估研究深化及专利转移转化定价实践发展提供了参考。

铁路数据资产流通价值下数据资产定价

随着大数据技术的发展,数据作为生产要素在经济中起到关键作用,企业逐渐开始利用大数据通过各种方式赋能,以求能给企业带来更大利益。交通是经济建设的“先行官”,铁路是交通体系的重要一环,其积累的大量数据资源具有极高的应用价值。铁路信息数据化的底层逻辑是通过对数据的开发和对数据进行二次分析,将数据跨行业、跨系统传递利用,从而推动数据价值的增值。本文结合铁路数据动态性复杂、保密性强等特点,挖掘铁路数据资产定价的影响因素,通过对传统定价方法进行改进,结合AHP分析法构建出更切合实际的铁路数据资产价值评估模型。

中国社会物流成本占GDP比重下降成因实证研究——基于因素分析法

为探究2004—2022年中国社会物流成本占GDP比重趋于下降的成因,在物流成本分类基础上对社会物流成本占GDP比重作了指标分解,并采用差额分析法测算物流需求系数、货物单位价值、平均运输距离、物流费率的变动对社会物流成本占GDP比重变化的影响。研究发现,2022年中国社会物流成本占GDP比重相比2004年有所降低,主要源于运输成本占GDP比重的下降和货物单位价值的提高,而物流需求系数、平均运输距离、物流费率的变动均使社会物流成本占GDP比重上升;在运输费率、保管费率、管理费率中,只有运输费率的变动起到了降低社会物流成本占GDP比重的作用;物流需求系数以2013年为拐点先升后降,其影响社会物流成本占GDP比重变化的方向发生了阶段性转折。降低社会物流成本占GDP比重绝不能通过去工业化或过度追求经济服务化的方式实现,而必须在保持制造业比重基本稳定的前提下稳步推进。同时,还须妥善处理好物流服务质量与成本的关系,从两者最佳组合上谋求物流效益的提高,防止物流降成本以牺牲服务质量为代价。展望未来,中国社会物流成本占GDP比重仍有继续下降的空间与潜力,可从结构优化、制度改革、科技赋能、资源整合、供应链协同等方面入手,采取合理有效措施进一步降低社会物流成本占GDP比重。

基于组合赋权法与TOPSIS法的砌体结构加固方案优选

砌体加固方案优选方法对实际工程遴选方案具有重要意义。为此建立了组合赋权法与TOPSIS法相结合的砌体结构加固方案优选方法,引入加固效费比模型,以效费比值为定量指标,以施工工期、施工技术、效果、整体效应4个因素作为定性指标,建立砌体结构抗震加固优选方案指标体系。以某教学楼为例,运用G1-COWA组合赋权法与TOPSIS法,求出该结构最佳加固方案为板墙加固方案。结果表明:所提出的优选方法具有一定的实用性和有效性,也适用于一般砌体加固改造工程;优选方法能根据既有结构的基本信息,科学便捷地决策出最佳方案,为砌体结构的加固设计实施提供更科学的技术支撑。

基于正交试验法的太阳能复合热水系统优化

为降低生活热水能耗,实现空气源热泵辅助太阳能供热水系统的高效节能运行,选取济南市某高校学生宿舍空气源热泵辅助太阳能供热水系统作为研究对象,利用瞬时系统模拟软件搭建了系统仿真模型,并采用无交互作用的正交试验法,分别以全年系统性能系数和太阳能保证率为优化目标,优化了太阳能集热器面积、集热器倾角、热泵制热功率及水箱容积,并分析其结果的经济性和节能性。结果表明:当以系统性能系数为优化目标时,最优组合中集热器面积为390 m^(2)、集热器倾角为42°、热泵制热功率为50 kW、水箱容积为23.94 m3,而动态费用年值为7.38万元,较天然气系统年节省标煤为17.12 tce;当以太阳能保证率为优化目标时,最优组合中集热器面积为342 m^(2)、集热器倾角为44°、热泵制热功率为35.5 kW、水箱容积为20.58 m3,而动态费用年值为6.56万元,较天然气系统年节省标煤为16.63 tce。

考虑出行成本不确定性的路网交通疏散策略

为提高应急管理水平,考虑突发事件影响下的交通出行成本不确定性,对城市交通疏散问题进行研究。首先,根据交通疏散问题的时空特性创建时空耦合网络图,并且结合行程时间成本和冲突风险成本,提出了城市交通路网出行成本的量化方法。进一步考虑路段资源权重上限的影响,通过增加边际约束,构建基于预算不确定集的先验疏散策略的鲁棒优化模型,以最小化路网疏散过程的总交通出行成本。然后运用模型重构技术,将搭建的鲁棒模型转化为混合整数线性规划模型,并设计改进的拉格朗日松弛方法进行解耦求解。最后以SiouxFalls网络进行算例分析,数值结果表明,随着不确定集和模型规模的增大,行程时间成本和冲突风险成本的增速分别提高约29.13%和236.46%,模型预算参数控制在一定的区间,能够较好地权衡解的鲁棒性与最优性。通过南京部分区域路网案例测试验证所述方法在更大规模网络算例的适用性,研究结果表明:相比于传统拉格朗日松弛方法,所提出的改良方法可以在较少的迭代次数内得到高质量的可行解。研究结果可以为应急指挥部门制定可靠的交通疏散策略提供思路。

基于TCIA和CVM的皇家园林游憩价值评估研究——以北京市颐和园为例

运用科学方法评估皇家园林游憩价值对旅游资源的有效保护与合理利用具有重要意义。通过对北京市颐和园皇家园林运用旅行费用区间法(TCIA)和条件价值法(CVM)进行评估,得出以下结论:1)从使用价值来看,旅游者实际旅行费用>旅游消费者剩余,颐和园皇家园林在游憩资源利用方面已经基本满足了游客的体验需求,但仍有提升空间;2)从非使用价值的角度来看,存在价值最高,其次为遗产价值,最后为选择价值,游憩非使用价值量居于中上等水平。由于游客对皇家园林的保护意识存在显著差异,导致人均WTP也有所不同;3)从综合角度来看,颐和园皇家园林的游憩使用价值远大于非使用价值,说明颐和园皇家园林的游憩资源非使用价值并未得到充分利用,仍有很大的挖掘潜力;4)从两种方法的适用性来看,TCIA和CVM方法适用于与颐和园相似的皇家园林的游憩价值评估。