Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events and Their Teleconnections to Large-scale Ocean-atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Huaihe River Basin,China During 1959–2019

Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.

Geo-information Tupu Analysis of Land Use Change in Haihe River Basin

[Objective] This study was to provide basis for the scientific management of land use in Haihe River Basin （HRB） through the quantitative exploration of the land use conversion, changes of intensity and spatial distribution in this region. [Method] With the support of remote sensing technology and geographic information technology, the land use maps of the study area in 40 years （1970-2010） were in- terpreted and plotted. Four kinds of tupu, namely, land use change tupu, process tupu, arising tupu and evolution mode tupu were built through the spatial overlay of the land use maps to analyze the change rules of land use patterns. [Result] The conversion of arable land to construction land was the main characteristics of land use changes in HRB for the 40 years; the area of non-stable region accounted for 35% of the total, indicating that the land use changed remarkably, thus, it was nec- essary to strengthen the scientific land management in HRB; the new conversions to all land use patterns were all the lowest in 1980-1990, indicating that land use changed slowly during this period. [Conclusion] The results indicate that, compared with conventional transfer matrix method, geo-information tupu has obvious advantage in analyzing land use changes that it can demonstrate the spatial distribution of interest region, display the multi-dimensional spatial information.

Using factor analysis on the comprehensive evaluation of oil pollution in the Haihe river basin

Selecting six indexs of pH, DO, COD, BOD5, ammonia nitrogen and petroleum hydrocarbons in Haihe River Basin of four seasons in 2012 - 2013 for factor analysis, appling Water Quality Pollution Index （API） to evaluate DO, COD, BOD5 and ammonia nitrogen, aims for systematic evluation to water quality of Haihe River Basin The results showed that two stations of B J1 and HB2 were the 1V type of water, others were the V type; Water Quality Pollution Index （API） was 1.44, which illustrated Haihe River Basin in the state of contamination that the degree of pollution exceeded the standard of functional areas. Factor Analysis explained that between COD, DO and NH3-N were significant difference （P〈0.05）; principal component analysis showed that, in addition to pH and BOD5, the other indicators were above 0.70; the contribution rate of COD, DO, NH3-N and TPH were higher, petroleum hydrocarbons was 100%, it can be considered that the waters type of pollution was organic pollution, and petroleum hydrocarbon contamination was more prominent.

Discovery and inspiration of large-and medium-sized glutenite-rich oil and gas fields in the eastern South China Sea:An example from Paleogene Enping Formation in Huizhou 26 subsag,Pearl River Mouth Basin

Based on the practice of oil and gas exploration in the Huizhou Sag of the Pearl River Mouth Basin,the geochemical indexes of source rocks were measured,the reservoir development morphology was restored,the rocks and minerals were characterized microscopically,the measured trap sealing indexes were compared,the biomarker compounds of crude oil were extracted,the genesis of condensate gas was identified,and the reservoir-forming conditions were examined.On this basis,the Paleogene Enping Formation in the Huizhou 26 subsag was systematically analyzed for the potential of oil and gas resources,the development characteristics of large-scale high-quality conglomerate reservoirs,the trapping effectiveness of faults,the hydrocarbon migration and accumulation model,and the formation conditions and exploration targets of large-and medium-sized glutenite-rich oil and gas fields.The research results were obtained in four aspects.First,the Paleogene Wenchang Formation in the Huizhou 26 subsag develops extensive and thick high-quality source rocks of semi-deep to deep lacustrine subfacies,which have typical hydrocarbon expulsion characteristics of"great oil generation in the early stage and huge gas expulsion in the late stage",providing a sufficient material basis for hydrocarbon accumulation in the Enping Formation.Second,under the joint control of the steep slope zone and transition zone of the fault within the sag,the large-scale near-source glutenite reservoirs are highly heterogeneous,with the development scale dominated hierarchically by three factors(favorable facies zone,particle component,and microfracture).The(subaqueous)distributary channels near the fault system,with equal grains,a low mud content(<5%),and a high content of feldspar composition,are conducive to the development of sweet spot reservoirs.Third,the strike-slip pressurization trap covered by stable lake flooding mudstone is a necessary condition for oil and gas preservation,and the NE and nearly EW faults obliquely to the principal stress have the best control on traps.Fourth,the spatiotemporal configuration of high-quality source rocks,fault transport/sealing,and glutenite reservoirs controls the degree of hydrocarbon enrichment.From top to bottom,three hydrocarbon accumulation units,i.e.low-fill zone,transition zone,and high-fill zone,are recognized.The main area of the channel in the nearly pressurized source-connecting fault zone is favorable for large-scale hydrocarbon enrichment.The research results suggest a new direction for the exploration of large-scale glutenite-rich reservoirs in the Enping Formation of the Pearl River Mouth Basin,and present a major breakthrough in oil and gas exploration.

Industrial Carbon Emission Distribution and Regional Joint Emission Reduction:A Case Study of Cities in the Pearl River Basin,China

China’s low-carbon development path will make significant contributions to achieving global sustainable development goals.Due to the diverse natural and economic conditions across different regions in China,there exists an imbalance in the distribution of car-bon emissions.Therefore,regional cooperation serves as an effective means to attain low-carbon development.This study examined the pattern of carbon emissions and proposed a potential joint emission reduction strategy by utilizing the industrial carbon emission intens-ity(ICEI)as a crucial factor.We utilized social network analysis and Local Indicators of Spatial Association(LISA)space-time trans-ition matrix to investigate the spatiotemporal connections and discrepancies of ICEI in the cities of the Pearl River Basin(PRB),China from 2010 to 2020.The primary drivers of the ICEI were determined through geographical detectors and multi-scale geographically weighted regression.The results were as follows:1)the overall ICEI in the Pearl River Basin is showing a downward trend,and there is a significant spatial imbalance.2)There are numerous network connections between cities regarding the ICEI,but the network structure is relatively fragile and unstable.3)Economically developed cities such as Guangzhou,Foshan,and Dongguan are in the center of the network while playing an intermediary role.4)Energy consumption,industrialization,per capita GDP,urbanization,science and techno-logy,and productivity are found to be the most influential variables in the spatial differentiation of ICEI,and their combination in-creased the explanatory power of the geographic variation of ICEI.Finally,through the analysis of differences and connections in urban carbon emissions under different economic levels and ICEI,the study suggests joint carbon reduction strategies,which are centered on carbon transfer,financial support,and technological assistance among cities.

Quantitative Evaluation of Sustainable Development and Eco-Environmental Carrying Capacity in Water-Deficient Regions:A Case Study in the Haihe River Basin,China

Quantitative assessment of development sustainability could be a challenge to regional management and planning, especially for areas facing great risks of water shortage. Surface-water decline and groundwater over-pumping have caused serious environmental problems and limited economic development in many regions all around the world. In this paper, a framework for quantitatively evaluating development sustainability was established with water-related eco-environmental carrying capacity （EECC） as the core measure. As a case study, the developed approach was applied to data of the Haihe River Basin, China, during 1998 through 2007. The overall sustainable development degree （SDD） is determined to be 0.39, suggesting that this rate of development is not sustainable. Results of scenario analysis revealed that overshoot, or resource over- exploitation, of the Basin＇s EECC is about 20% for both population and economy. Based on conditions in the study area in 2007, in order to achieve sustainable development, i.e., SDD〉0.70 in this study, the EECC could support a population of 108 million and gross domestic product （GDP） of 2.72 trillion CNY. The newly developed approach in quantifying ecoenvironmental carrying capacity is anticipated to facilitate sustainable development oriented resource management in waterdeficient areas.

The Relation between Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation and Summer Severe Flood and Drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin

The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is studied during the severe flood and drought years of the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the precipitation data in China. The results show that the upper-level (200 hPa) ISO pattern for severe flood (drought) is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the southern Tibetan Plateau and a cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation over the northern Tibetan Plateau. The lower-level (850 hPa) ISO pattern is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the area south of the Changjiang River, the South China Sea, and the Western Pacific, and a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation from the area north of the Changjiang River to Japan. These low-level ISO circulation patterns are the first modes of the ISO wind field according to the vector EOF expansion with stronger amplitude of the EOF1 time coefficient in severe flood years than in severe drought years. The analyses also reveal that at 500 hPa and 200 hPa, the atmospheric ISO activity over the Changjiang-Huaihe River basin, North China, and the middle-high latitudes north of China is stronger for severe flood than for severe drought. The ISO meridional wind over the middle-high latitude regions can propagate southwards and meet with the northward propagating ISO meridional wind from lower latitude regions over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin during severe flood years, but not during severe drought years.

Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation in Haihe River basin, 1958-2007

The seasonal variability and spatial distribution of precipitation are the main cause of flood and drought events. The study of spatial distribution and temporal trend of precipitation in river basins has been paid more and more attention. However, in China, the precipitation data are measured by weather stations （WS） of China Meteorological Administration and hydrological rain gauges （RG） of national and local hydrology bureau. The WS data usually have long record with fewer stations, while the RG data usually have short record with more stations. The consistency and correlation of these two data sets have not been well understood. In this paper, the precipitation data from 30 weather stations for 1958-2007 and 248 rain gauges for 1995-2004 in the Haihe River basin are examined and compared using linear regression, 5-year moving average, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Z test and F test methods. The results show that the annual precipitation from both WS and RG records are normally distributed with minor difference in the mean value and variance. It is statistically feasible to extend the precipitation of RG by WS data sets. Using the extended precipitation data, the detailed spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as their temporal trends are calculated and mapped. The various distribution maps produced in the study show that for the whole basin the precipitation of 1958-2007 has been decreasing except for spring season. The decline trend is significant in summer, and this trend is stronger after the 1980s. The annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and changing trends are different in different regions and seasons. The precipitation is decreasing from south to north, from coastal zone to inland area.

Change of the solar radiation and its causes in the Haihe River Basin and surrounding areas

Solar radiation is an important driving force for the formation and evolution of climate system. Analysis of change in solar radiation is helpful in understanding mechanism of climate change. In this study, the temporal and spatial variations of solar radiation and the cause of the change in solar radiation have been analyzed based on meteorological data from 46 national meteorological stations and aerosol index data from TOMS over the Haihe River Basin and surrounding areas. The results have shown that solar radiation and direct radiation significantly decreased, while scattered radiation increased during the period 1957-2008. Spatially, the decreasing trend of solar radiation was more and more significant from low population density areas to high population density areas. The spatial distribution of increase in aerosol index is consistent with that of decrease in solar radiation. The increase in aerosols resulting from human activities was an important reason for the decrease in solar radiation.

Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of Atmospheric Water Vapor Transport in the Haihe River Basin

The seasonal mean atmospheric precipitable water and water vapor transport over the Haihe River Basin （HRB） in North China with a focus on their interannual to interdecadal variability, and then the relationships of the interannual and interdecadal variability of the water cycle over the HRB to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） phenomena were investigated using the observational and National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） reanalysis data. There was a strong interdecadal variability for the water cycle （such as precipitation and water vapor transport） over the region, with an abrupt change occurring mostly in the mid 1970s. The intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon largely affected the atmospheric water vapor transport. Generally, the net meridional convergence of the water vapor flux over the region was relatively large before 1965, and it declined gradually from then on with a further notable decrease since mid 1970s. Zonal water vapor transport was similar to meridional, but with a much smaller magnitude and no noteworthy turning in the mid 1970s. Results also suggested that the wind field played an important role in the water vapor transport over the HRB before the mid 1960s, and the interdecadal variability of the water cycle （precipitation, water vapor transport, etc.） in the summer was related to the PDO; however, interannual variation of the water vapor transport could also be related to the ENSO phenomena.

Risk assessment of water security in Haihe River Basin during drought periods based on D-S evidence theory

The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. （2005）, and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.

Vulnerability of Water Resources and Its Spatial Heterogeneity in Haihe River Basin, China

To manage water resources effectively, a multiscale assessment of the vulnerability of water resources on the basis of political boundaries and watersheds is necessary. This study addressed issues on the vulnerability of water resources and provided a multiscale comparison of spatial heterogeneity under a climate change background. Using improved quantitative evaluation methods of vulnerabil- ity, the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index, we evaluated the vulnerability of water resources and its spatial heterogeneity in the Haihe River Basin in four scales, namely, second-class water resource regions （Class II WRRs）, third-class water resource regions （Class III WRRs）, Province-Class II WRRs, and Province-Class III WRRs. Results show that vulnerability enhances from the north to south in the different scales, and shows obvious spatial heterogeneity instead of moving toward convergence in multiscale assessment results. Among the Class II WRRs, the Tuhai-Majia River is the most vulnerable area, and the vulnerability of the Luanhe River is lower than that of the north of the Haihe River Basin, which in turn is lower than that of the south of the Haihe River Basin. In the scales of Class III WRRs and Province-Class III WRRs, the vulnerability shows obvious spatial heterogeneity and diversity measured by the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index. Multiscale vulnerability assessment results based on political boundaries and the watersheds of the Haihe River Basin innovatively provided in this paper are important and useful to characterize the real spatial pattern of the vulnerability of water resources and improve water resource management.

Determination of a Reasonable Percentage for Ecological Water-Use in the Haihe River Basin, China

An investigation was conducted to study problems of determining a reasonable percentage for ecological water-use in the Haihe River Basin of China. Three key aspects for the ecological water requirement （EWR） were analyzed, involving i） the EWR for river system, ii） the EWR for wetlands and lakes, and iii） the EWR for discharge into the sea to maintain the estuary ecological balance of the Haihe River. The Montana method and related water level-flow relationships, and the statistic approach based on hydrological records were applied to estimate different components of EWR. The results showed that the total ecological water demand in the region, was about 3.47-14.56 billion m^3. Considering flow regime change and uncertainty, the ecological water demand could be estimated by the hydrological frequency approach. Preliminary analysis showed that for different annual runoff under the frequencies of 20%, 50%, 75% and 95%, the ecological water demand approached 12%-50%, 18%-74%, 24%-103%, 35%-148% and 16%-66%, respectively. By further analysis to balance ecological water-use and socioeconomic water-use, the rational percentage of ecological water-use was estimated as 35%-74%, that provides useful information to judge whether the allocation of water resources is reasonable, and was proved to be satisfactory by comparing with the practical condition.

Flood and Waterlogging Monitoring over Huaihe River Basin by AMSR-E Data Analysis

In this paper, we investigated the potential of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) for flood monitoring. The proposed approach was based on the polarized ratio index (PRI), which was computed by using AMSR-E data at 37GHz, vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperature values and the water surface fraction (WSF) got by using the PRI at 37GHz. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrora-diometer (MODIS) data were used to validate the WSF values. The analysis of flood and waterlogging using the WSF map on July 6, 2003 indicates that the use of WSF for flood and waterlogging disaster assessment is feasible. Utilizing the correlation of WSF derived from AMSR-E and water area derived from MODIS, the water area of the Huaihe River Basin were computed by only using AMSR-E data in the summer of 2003, which overcame the influence of cloud on water estimation using MODIS data during flood.

Distribution and dynamics of niche and interspecific association of dominant phytoplankton species in the Feiyun River basin,Zhejiang,China

To investigate the dominant species and interspecific association in the phytoplankton community of the Feiyun River basin in Zhejiang Province,East China,the main stream and the Shanxi Zhaoshandu Reservoir in the downstream were chosen as the study area,for which 22 sampling sites were designated.Sampling was conducted in September 2021,January,May,and July 2022.Phytoplankton species were identified from both quantitative samples and in-vivo observations.Phytoplankton was quantified by direct counting.Results show that there were 98 species belonging to 6 phyla and 78 genera.In addition,to clarify the niches of the dominant phytoplankton species and their interspecific association,the dominance index was calculated,and a comprehensive analysis was conducted including niche width,niche overlap value,ecological response rate,overall association,chi-square test,and the stability.The phytoplankton community exhibited characteristics of a Cyanobacteria-Chlorophyta-Diatom type community,showing higher diversity in spring and lower diversity in summer.Among 11 dominants phytoplankton species from 3 phyla,both frequency and dominance degree varied seasonally,of which Microcystis sp.was the dominant species in Spring,Autumn,and Winter.The niche widths of the dominant species ranged from 0.234 to 0.933,and were categorized into three groups.The niche overlap values of the 11 dominant species ranged from 0.359 to 0.959,exhibiting significant seasonal differences-highest in winter followed by autumn,spring,and summer in turn.The overall correlation among dominant species in all four seasons revealed a non-significant negative association,resulting in an unstable community structure.A significant portion(84.2%)of species pairs displayed positive associations,suggesting a successional pattern where Diatoms dominated while other dominant species shared resources and space.Despite this pattern,stability measurements indicated that the dominant species community remained unstable.Therefore,careful monitoring is recommended for potential water environment issues arising from abnormal proliferation of dominant species in the watershed during winter.This research built a theoretical foundation with a data support to the early warning of eutrophication and provided a reference for water resources management in similar watersheds along the eastern coast of China.

Establishing the relationship between land use land cover,normalized difference vegetation index and land surface temperature:A case of Lower Son River Basin,India

The study explores the intricate interplay between land use land cover(LULC),normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and land surface temperature(LST)within the Lower Son River Basin in India from 1991 to 2020.The region’s ecological balance has been increasingly strained due to rapid urbanization and changing land use patterns.Through a combination of Landsat TM&OLI/TIRS satellite imageries and geospatial analysis techniques,this study unveils the intricate connection between land use and land cover changes,vegetation,and land surface temperature variations.The study area is classified into three altitudinal zones(Zone Ⅰ:39–300 m,Zone Ⅱ:301–600 m and Zone Ⅲ:601–1,247 m)to examine the changes in depth.The area has seen significant changes in LULC,vegetation and LST in all the three altitudinal zones.The findings hold significant implications for sustainable land management and environmental conservation strategies in the Lower Son River Basin.As per the result,103,438 ha of vegetation was converted into agriculture land and 82,572 ha of agricultural land was transformed into settlements from 1991 to 2020.This trend shows human pressure on the land resource in the study area.Minor increase in water body is seen which is attributed to commissioning of Bansagar dam.Zone Ⅰ has seen highest settlement growth while Zone Ⅲ experienced severe deforestation of around 15%.Zone Ⅱ and Ⅲ needs attention for holistic sustenance.Analysis of LST shows that it has increased by 0.82℃ from 1991 to 2020 which is a red flag.The study underscores the critical importance of balanced land use practices to preserve ecological integrity and mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization and climate change.

River width and depth as key factors of diurnal activity energy expenditure allocation for wintering Spot-billed Ducks in the Xin'an River Basin

Rivers are important habitats for wintering waterbirds.However,they are easily influenced by natural and human activities.An important approach for waterbirds to adapt to habitats is adjusting the activity time and energy expenditure allocation of diurnal behavior.The compensatory foraging hypothesis predicts that increased energy expenditure leads to longer foraging time,which in turn increases food intake and helps maintain a constant energy balance.However,it is unclear whether human-disturbed habitats result in increased energy expenditure related to safety or foraging.In this study,the scan sample method was used to observe the diurnal behavior of the wintering Spot-billed Duck(Anas poecilorhyncha) in two rivers in the Xin’an River Basin from October 2021 to March 2022.The allocation of time and energy expenditure for activity in both normal and disturbed environments was calculated.The results showed that foraging accounted for the highest percentage of time and energy expenditure.Additionally,foraging decreased in the disturbed environment than that in the normal environment.Resting behavior showed the opposite trend,while other behaviors were similar in both environments.The total diurnal energy expenditure of ducks in the disturbed environment was greater than that in the normal environment,with decreased foraging and resting time percentage and increased behaviors related to immediate safety(swimming and alert) and comfort.These results oppose the compensatory foraging hypothesis in favor of increased security.The optimal diurnal energy expenditure model included river width and water depth,which had a positive relationship;an increase in either of these two factors resulted in an increase in energy expenditure.This study provides a better understanding of energy allocation strategies underlying the superficial time allocation of wintering waterbirds according to environmental conditions.Exploring these changes can help understand the maximum fitness of wintering waterbirds in response to nature and human influences.

Baseflow:Potential Pathway Underlying a High Nitrogen Concentra-tion in a Less-rainy WatershedTaking Chaohe River Basin of China as an Example

Baseflow is one of the major pathways of runoff in hilly areas,and its contributions to surface water resources and pollutant loads cannot be ignored.In this study,based on water quantity and quality data from 1988 to 2019 in hilly and low rainfall watersheds,we focused on the impact of long-term baseflow on nitrogen load using the load allocation based on the baseflow separation method.We also constructed a nitrogen balance model for the Chaohe River Basin of China from 2012 to 2021 to analyze the nitrogen accumulation in the basin.We used the baseflow nitrogen load lag analysis method to study the lag characteristics of the baseflow discharge process and analyzed the response and periodicity of baseflow nitrogen to precipitation and soil accumulation using time delay analysis.The res-ults showed that the contribution rate of baseflow nitrogen reached 69%and showed a slight increasing trend from 1988 to 2019.The ef-fects of changes in precipitation and nitrogen accumulation on the baseflow contribution was observed after 1-2 and 2 yr,respectively.After nitrogen accumulation,it entered the river channel through baseflow,which was already the main and continuous source of nitro-gen in rivers in hilly areas.

Assessing the Seasonal Predictability of Summer Precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin with Multiple APCC Models

Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Huaihe River basin is evaluated in this paper on the basis of 23-year(1981-2003) retrospective forecasts by 10 climate models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) Climate Center(APCC) multi-model ensemble(MME) prediction system.It is found that the summer rainfall variance in this basin is largely internal,which leads to lower rainfall predictability for most individual climate models.By dividing the 10 models into three categories according to their sea surface temperature(SST) boundary conditions including observed,predicted,and persistent SSTs,the MME deterministic predictive skill of summer rainfall over Huaihe River basin is investigated.It is shown that the MME is effective for increasing the current seasonal forecast skill.Further analysis shows that the MME averaged over predicted SST models has the highest rainfall prediction skill,which is closely related to model's capability in reproducing the observed dominant modes of the summer rainfall anomalies in Huaihe River basin.This result can be further ascribed to the fact that the predicted SST MME is the most effective model ensemble for capturing the relationship between the summer rainfall anomalies over Huaihe River basin and the SST anomalies(SSTAs) in equatorial oceans.

Responses of runoff to changes in climate and human activities in the Liuhe River Basin, China

Since the 1950s,numerous soil and water conservation measures have been implemented to control severe soil erosion in the Liuhe River Basin(LRB),China.While these measures have protected the upstream soil and water ecological environment,they have led to a sharp reduction in the downstream flow and the deterioration of the river ecological environment.Therefore,it is important to evaluate the impact of soil and water conservation measures on hydrological processes to assess long-term runoff changes.Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)models and sensitivity analyses based on the Budyko hypothesis,this study quantitatively evaluated the effects of climate change,direct water withdrawal,and soil and water conservation measures on runoff in the LRB during different periods,including different responses to runoff discharge,hydrological regime,and flood processes.The runoff series were divided into a baseline period(1956-1969)and two altered periods,i.e.,period 1(1970-1999)and period 2(2000-2020).Human activities were the main cause of the decrease in runoff during the altered periods,contributing 86.03%(-29.61 mm),while the contribution of climate change was only 13.70%(-4.70 mm).The impact of climate change manifests as a decrease in flood volume caused by a reduction in precipitation during the flood season.Analysis of two flood cases indicated a 66.00%-84.00%reduction in basin runoff capacity due to soil and water conservation measures in the upstream area.Soil and water conservation measures reduced the peak flow and total flood volume in the upstream runoff area by 77.98%and 55.16%,respectively,even with nearly double the precipitation.The runoff coefficient in the reservoir area without soil and water conservation measures was 4.0 times that in the conservation area.These results contribute to the re-evaluation of soil and water conservation hydrological effects and provide important guidance for water resource planning and water conservation policy formulation in the LRB.