A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that collection.In these...A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that collection.In these lecture notes,the usual workflow of the use of mathematical models to investigate a biological problem is described and the use of a collection of model is motivated.Models depend on parameters that must be estimated using observations;and when a collection of models is considered,the best model has then to be identified based on available observations.Hence,model calibration and selection,which are intrinsically linked,are essential steps of the workflow.Here,some procedures for model calibration and a criterion,the Akaike Information Criterion,of model selection based on experimental data are described.Rough derivation,practical technique of computation and use of this criterion are detailed.展开更多
In this paper, the estimators of the scale parameter of the exponential distribution obtained by applying four methods, using complete data, are critically examined and compared. These methods are the Maximum Likeliho...In this paper, the estimators of the scale parameter of the exponential distribution obtained by applying four methods, using complete data, are critically examined and compared. These methods are the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), the Square-Error Loss Function (BSE), the Entropy Loss Function (BEN) and the Composite LINEX Loss Function (BCL). The performance of these four methods was compared based on three criteria: the Mean Square Error (MSE), the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Using Monte Carlo simulation based on relevant samples, the comparisons in this study suggest that the Bayesian method is better than the maximum likelihood estimator with respect to the estimation of the parameter that offers the smallest values of MSE, AIC, and BIC. Confidence intervals were then assessed to test the performance of the methods by comparing the 95% CI and average lengths (AL) for all estimation methods, showing that the Bayesian methods still offer the best performance in terms of generating the smallest ALs.展开更多
初至拾取是微地震数据处理的基本步骤及重要环节,在低信噪比情况下,传统的初至拾取方法性能不佳,无法满足实际需求。为此,提出一种新算法,该算法将时域微地震数据映射到Shearlet域,利用AIC(Akaike Information Criterion)模型对Shearle...初至拾取是微地震数据处理的基本步骤及重要环节,在低信噪比情况下,传统的初至拾取方法性能不佳,无法满足实际需求。为此,提出一种新算法,该算法将时域微地震数据映射到Shearlet域,利用AIC(Akaike Information Criterion)模型对Shearlet域各尺度层的数据实现初步识别,最小AIC值作为初至时刻。通过大量实验验证Shearlet-AIC算法在低至-13 d B信噪比下自动拾取的准确性,证实该算法优于传统初至拾取算法,解决了传统初至拾取算法在低信噪比时难以有效拾取微地震初至的难题。展开更多
We used data from bottom trawl surveys to study the factors influencing the abundance of small yellow croaker, Larimichthys polyactis, in the southern Yellow Sea (SYS) and the East China Sea (ECS). The resource densit...We used data from bottom trawl surveys to study the factors influencing the abundance of small yellow croaker, Larimichthys polyactis, in the southern Yellow Sea (SYS) and the East China Sea (ECS). The resource density index (RDI) was generally higher in summer and autumn than in spring and winter. RDIs were also significantly greater in the SYS than in the ECS in summer and autumn. The bottom water salinity and depth of spatial distribution of small yellow croaker was similar between the two areas in summer, but different in other seasons. Regression analysis suggested that environmental factors such as bottom water temperature, salinity, and depth influenced the RDIs in summer in these areas. Growth condition factor (GCF) in the two areas varied monthly and the croaker in the SYS grew more slowly than those in the ECS. This was likely due to the low bottom temperature of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass in summer and autumn or to higher human fishing pressure in the ECS. To ensure sustainable utilization of the croaker stocks in these regions, we recommend reducing the fishing intensity, increasing the cod-end mesh size, and improving the protection of juveniles.展开更多
Time series analysis has two goals, modeling random mechanisms and predicting future series using historical data. In the present work, a uni-variate time series autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） mode...Time series analysis has two goals, modeling random mechanisms and predicting future series using historical data. In the present work, a uni-variate time series autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model has been developed for （a） simulating and forecasting mean rainfall, obtained using Theissen weights; over the Mahanadi River Basin in India, and （b） simula^ag and forecasting mean rainfall at 38 rain-gauge stations in district towns across the basin. For the analysis, monthly rainfall data of each district town for the years 1901-2002 （102 years） were used. Theissen weights were obtained over the basin and mean monthly rainfall was estimated. The trend and seasonality observed in ACF and PACF plots of rainfall data were removed using power transformation （a=0.5） and first order seasonal differencing prior to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the AR1MA model （1,0,0）（0,1,1）12 developed here was found to be most suitable for simulating and forecasting mean rainfall over the Mahanadi River Basin and for all 38 district town rain-gauge stations, separately. The Akaike Information Criterion （AIC）, good- ness of fit （Chi-square）, R2 （coefficient of determination）, MSE （mean square error） and MAE （mea absolute error） were used to test the validity and applicability of the developed ARIMA model at different stages. This model is considered appropriate to forecast the monthly rainfall for the upcoming 12 years in each district town to assist decision makers and policy makers establish priorities for water demand, storage, distribution, and disaster management.展开更多
基金SP is supported by a Discovery Grant of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada(RGOIN-2018-04967).
文摘A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that collection.In these lecture notes,the usual workflow of the use of mathematical models to investigate a biological problem is described and the use of a collection of model is motivated.Models depend on parameters that must be estimated using observations;and when a collection of models is considered,the best model has then to be identified based on available observations.Hence,model calibration and selection,which are intrinsically linked,are essential steps of the workflow.Here,some procedures for model calibration and a criterion,the Akaike Information Criterion,of model selection based on experimental data are described.Rough derivation,practical technique of computation and use of this criterion are detailed.
文摘In this paper, the estimators of the scale parameter of the exponential distribution obtained by applying four methods, using complete data, are critically examined and compared. These methods are the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), the Square-Error Loss Function (BSE), the Entropy Loss Function (BEN) and the Composite LINEX Loss Function (BCL). The performance of these four methods was compared based on three criteria: the Mean Square Error (MSE), the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Using Monte Carlo simulation based on relevant samples, the comparisons in this study suggest that the Bayesian method is better than the maximum likelihood estimator with respect to the estimation of the parameter that offers the smallest values of MSE, AIC, and BIC. Confidence intervals were then assessed to test the performance of the methods by comparing the 95% CI and average lengths (AL) for all estimation methods, showing that the Bayesian methods still offer the best performance in terms of generating the smallest ALs.
文摘初至拾取是微地震数据处理的基本步骤及重要环节,在低信噪比情况下,传统的初至拾取方法性能不佳,无法满足实际需求。为此,提出一种新算法,该算法将时域微地震数据映射到Shearlet域,利用AIC(Akaike Information Criterion)模型对Shearlet域各尺度层的数据实现初步识别,最小AIC值作为初至时刻。通过大量实验验证Shearlet-AIC算法在低至-13 d B信噪比下自动拾取的准确性,证实该算法优于传统初至拾取算法,解决了传统初至拾取算法在低信噪比时难以有效拾取微地震初至的难题。
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China for Creative Research Groups (No. 40821004)the National Key Technology Research and Development Program (No. 2007BAD43B01)the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Science, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KLMEES201001)
文摘We used data from bottom trawl surveys to study the factors influencing the abundance of small yellow croaker, Larimichthys polyactis, in the southern Yellow Sea (SYS) and the East China Sea (ECS). The resource density index (RDI) was generally higher in summer and autumn than in spring and winter. RDIs were also significantly greater in the SYS than in the ECS in summer and autumn. The bottom water salinity and depth of spatial distribution of small yellow croaker was similar between the two areas in summer, but different in other seasons. Regression analysis suggested that environmental factors such as bottom water temperature, salinity, and depth influenced the RDIs in summer in these areas. Growth condition factor (GCF) in the two areas varied monthly and the croaker in the SYS grew more slowly than those in the ECS. This was likely due to the low bottom temperature of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass in summer and autumn or to higher human fishing pressure in the ECS. To ensure sustainable utilization of the croaker stocks in these regions, we recommend reducing the fishing intensity, increasing the cod-end mesh size, and improving the protection of juveniles.
文摘Time series analysis has two goals, modeling random mechanisms and predicting future series using historical data. In the present work, a uni-variate time series autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model has been developed for （a） simulating and forecasting mean rainfall, obtained using Theissen weights; over the Mahanadi River Basin in India, and （b） simula^ag and forecasting mean rainfall at 38 rain-gauge stations in district towns across the basin. For the analysis, monthly rainfall data of each district town for the years 1901-2002 （102 years） were used. Theissen weights were obtained over the basin and mean monthly rainfall was estimated. The trend and seasonality observed in ACF and PACF plots of rainfall data were removed using power transformation （a=0.5） and first order seasonal differencing prior to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the AR1MA model （1,0,0）（0,1,1）12 developed here was found to be most suitable for simulating and forecasting mean rainfall over the Mahanadi River Basin and for all 38 district town rain-gauge stations, separately. The Akaike Information Criterion （AIC）, good- ness of fit （Chi-square）, R2 （coefficient of determination）, MSE （mean square error） and MAE （mea absolute error） were used to test the validity and applicability of the developed ARIMA model at different stages. This model is considered appropriate to forecast the monthly rainfall for the upcoming 12 years in each district town to assist decision makers and policy makers establish priorities for water demand, storage, distribution, and disaster management.
