Coseismic Coulomb stress changes induced by a 2020-2021 M_(W)>7.0 Alaska earthquake sequence in and around the Shumagin gap and its influence on the Alaska-Aleutian subduction interface

Three M_(W)>7.0 earthquakes in 2020-2021 occurred in the Shumagin seismic gap and its adjacent area of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone,including the Mw7.8 Simeonof thrust earthquake on July 22,2020,the M_(W)7.6 Sand Point strike-slip earthquake on October 19,2020,and the M_(W)8.2 Chignik thrust earthquake on July 29,2021.The spatial and temporal proximity of these three earthquakes prompts us to probe stress-triggering effects among them.Here we examine the coseismic Coulomb stress change imparted by the three earthquakes and their influence on the subduction interface.Our results show that:(1)The Simeonof earthquake has strong loading effects on the subsequent Sand Point and Chignik earthquakes,with the Coulomb stress changes of 3.95 bars and 2.89 bars,respectively.The Coulomb stress change caused by the Sand Point earthquake at the hypocenter of the Chignik earthquake is merely around 0.01 bars,suggesting the negligible triggering effect on the latter earthquake;(2)The triggering effects of the Simeonof,Sand Point,and Chignik earthquakes on aftershocks within three months are not well pronounced because of the triggering rates of 38%,14%,and 43%respectively.Other factors may have played an important role in promoting the occurrence of these aftershocks,such as the roughness of the subduction interface,the complicated velocity structure of the lithosphere,and the heterogeneous prestress therein;(3)The three earthquakes caused remarkable coseismic Coulomb stress changes at the subduction interface nearby these mainshocks,with an average Coulomb stress change of 3.2 bars in the shallow region directly inwards the trench.

Probing signals of atmospheric gravity waves excited by the July 29,2021 M_(W)8.2 Alaska earthquake

It is commonly believed that the atmosphere is decoupled from the solid Earth.Thus,it is difficult for the seismic wave energy inside the Earth to propagate into the atmosphere,and atmospheric pressure wave signals excited by earthquakes are unlikely to exist in atmospheric observations.An increasing number of studies have shown that earthquakes,volcanoes,and tsunamis can perturb the Earth's atmosphere due to various coupling effects.However,the observations mainly focus on acoustic waves with periods of less than 10 min and inertial gravity waves with periods of greater than 1 h.There are almost no clear observations of gravity waves that coincide with observations of low-frequency signals of the Earth's free oscillation frequency band within 1 h.This paper investigates atmospheric gravity wave signals within1 h of surface-atmosphere observations using the periodogram method based on seismometer and microbarometer observations from the global seismic network before and after the July 29,2021 M_(w)8.2 Alaska earthquake in the United States.The numerical results show that the atmospheric gravity wave signals with frequencies similar to those of the Earth's free oscillations _(0)S_(2) and _(0)T_(2) can be detected in the microbaro meter observations.The results con firm the existence of atmospheric gravity waves,indicating that the atmosphere and the solid Earth are not decoupled within this frequency band and that seismic wave energy excited by earthquakes can propagate from the interior of the Earth to the atmosphere and enhance the atmospheric gravity wave signals within 1 h.

Seismic anisotropy and upper mantle dynamics in Alaska:A review of shear wave splitting analyses

Shear wave splitting(SWS)is regarded as the most effective geophysical method to delineate mantle flow fields by detecting seismic azimuthal anisotropy in the earth's upper mantle,especially in tectonically active regions such as subduction zones.The Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone has a convergence rate of approximately 50 mm/yr,with a trench length reaching nearly 2800 km.Such a long subduction zone has led to intensive continental deformation and numerous strong earthquakes in southern and central Alaska,while northern Alaska is relatively inactive.The sharp contrast makes Alaska a favorable locale to investigate the impact of subduction on mantle dynamics.Moreover,the uniqueness of this subduction zone,including the unusual subducting type,varying slab geometry,and atypical magmatic activity and composition,has intrigued the curiosity of many geoscientists.To identify different sources of seismic anisotropy beneath the Alaska region and probe the influence of a geometrically varying subducting slab on mantle dynamics,extensive SWS analyses have been conducted in the past decades.However,the insufficient station and azimuthal coverage,especially in early studies,not only led to some conflicting results but also strongly limited the in-depth investigation of layered anisotropy and the estimation of anisotropy depth.With the completion of the Transportable Array project in Alaska,recent studies have revealed more detailed mantle structures and characteristics based on the dense station coverage and newly collected massive seismic data.In this study,we review significant regional-and continental-scale SWS studies in the Alaska region and conclude the mantle flow fields therein,to understand how a geometrically varying subducting slab alters the regional mantle dynamics.The summarized mantle flow mechanisms are believed to be conducive to the understanding of seismic anisotropy patterns in other subduction zones with a complicated tectonic setting.

Projected Changes in Extreme Event Indices for Alaska

As climate has warmed in recent decades, Alaska has experienced a variety of high-impact extreme events that include heat waves, wildfires, coastal storms and freezing rain. Because the warming is projected to continue, it is essential to consider future changes when planning adaptation actions and building resilience. In this study, we synthesize information on future changes in extreme events in Alaska from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations performed as part of Arctic-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). A set of 13 extreme event indices, based on those developed by the World Climate Research Programme’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), are evaluated from the Arctic-CORDEX output for Alaska. Of the 13 indices, six pertain to temperature, five to total precipitation, one to wind and one to snow. The results for locations in seven different climate zones of Alaska include large increases (5˚C - 10˚C) in the temperature thresholds for the five hottest and coldest days of the year, and large increases in warm spell duration and decreases in cold spell duration. Changes in the cold day temperature threshold are generally larger than the changes in the hot day temperature threshold, consistent with the projections of a stronger warming in winter than in summer in Alaska yearly maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation amounts as well as the yearly number of consecutive wet days are projected to increase at all locations. The indices for heavy snow days and high-wind days show mixed changes, although the results indicate increases in heavy snow days at the more northern locations and increases in windy days at coastal locations. The changes in the extreme event indices continue through 2100 under the higher-emission (RCP 8.5) emission scenario, while the changes generally stabilize under the lower-emission (RCP 4.5) scenario. .

Outdoor Universal Thermal Comfort Index Climatology for Alaska

Data from 456 surface meteorological sites in Alaska, eastern Russia and northwest Canada for 1979-2017 were used to model hourly universal thermal comfort indices (UTCIs) under consideration of Alaska-appropriate clothing. The results served to determine a high-resolution climatology of thermal comfort levels for Alaska at various temporal and spatial scales as well as the frequency of thermal stress levels. On 1979-2017 average, various degrees of cold stress occurred with highest percentage on the Alaska West Coast and along the Arctic Ocean. In the continental and Inside Passage region, no thermal stress had the highest percentage of occurrence. In Interior Alaska, both strong heat and extreme cold stress occurred occasionally. At most sites and in all Alaska Köppen-Geiger bio-climate regions, the absolute range between monthly means of daily minimum and maximum UTCIs was larger than that of monthly means of daily minimum and maximum air temperatures. Major contributors to thermal discomfort (shortwave radiation, air temperature, moisture, wind speed) varied among bio-climate regions and in the diurnal and annual courses.

The Ways to Say “Welcome” in Alaska

How many ways can you think of to say"Welcome"?In Alaska there are at least 11 different ways!That’s because there are 11 distinct cultur- al groups of Native Indians who live in Alaska and have their own lan- guages,customs,and hanting and fishing practices.

Indoor and Outdoor Particulate Matter Exposure of Rural Interior Alaska Residents

To assess the exposure of residents in rural communities in the Yukon Flats to particulate matter of 2.5 μm or less in diameter (PM2.5), both indoor and outdoor concentration observations were carried out from March to September 2019 in Ft. Yukon, Alaska. Indoor concentrations were measured at 0.61 m (breathing level during sleeping) in homes and at 1.52 m heights (breathing level of standing adult) in homes and office/commercial buildings. Air quality was better at both heights in cabins than frame homes both during times with and without surface-based inversions. In frame houses, concentrations were higher at 0.61 m than 1.52 m, while the opposite is true typically for cabins. Differences between shoulder season and summer indoor concentrations in residences were related to changes in heating, subsistence lifestyle and mosquito repellents. In summer, office and commercial buildings, air quality decreased due to increased indoor emissions related to increased use of equipment and mosquito pics as well as more merchandise. During summer indoor concentrations reached unhealthy for sensitive groups to hazardous conditions for extended times that even exceeded the high outdoor concentrations. Due to nearby wildfires, July mean outdoor concentrations were 55.3 μg·m-3 which exceeds the 24-h US National Ambient Air Quality Standard of 35 μg·m-3. Indoor and outdoor concentrations correlated the strongest with each other for office/commercial buildings, followed by frame houses and cabins. Office/commercial buildings with temperature monitors had one to two orders of magnitude lower concentrations than those without.

Conditions Supporting Funnel Cloud Development in Alaska

The characteristics and climatology of funnel clouds in Alaska were examined using operational radiosondes, surface meteorological observations, and reanalysis data. Funnel clouds occurred under weak synoptic forcing between May and September between 11 am and 6 pm Alaska Daylight Time with a maximum occurrence in July. They occurred under Convective Available Potential Energy >500 J·kg-1 and strong low-level wind shear. Characteristic atmospheric profiles during funnel cloud events served to develop a retrieval algorithm based on similarity testing. Out of more than 129,000 soundings between 1971 and 2014, 2724, 442, and 744 profiles were similar to the profiles of observed funnel cloud events in the Interior, Alaska West Coast, and Anchorage regions. While the number of reported funnel clouds has increased since 2000, the frequency of synoptic situations favorable for such events has decreased.

Gastric cancer in Alaska Native people: A cancer health disparity

AIM To evaluate recent trends in gastric cancer incidence, response to treatment, and overall survival among Alaska Native(AN) people. METHODS A retrospective analysis of the Alaska Native Medical Center patient database was performed. Patient history, clinical, pathological, response to treatment and patient outcomes were collected from one-hundred and thirty-two AN gastric cancer patients. The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result database 18 was used to collect comparison United States non-Hispanic White(NHW) and AN gastric cancer patient data between 2006-2014.RESULTS AN gastric cancer patients have a higher incidence rate, a poorer overall survival, and are diagnosed at a significantly younger age compared to NHW patients. AN patients differ from NHW patients in greater prevalence of non-cardia, diffuse subtype, and signet ring cell carcinomas. AN females were more likely to be diagnosed with later stage cancer, stage IV, compared to AN males. Diminished overall survival was observed among AN patients with increasing stage, O+ blood type, < 15 lymph nodes examined at resection, and no treatment. This study is the first report detailing the clinicopathologic features of gastric cancer in AN people with outcome data.CONCLUSION Our findings confirm the importance of early detection, treatment, and surgical resection for optimizing AN patient outcomes. Further research on early detection markers are warranted.

The Effect of Hydrolysis with Neutrase on Molecular Weight,Functional Properties,and Antioxidant Activities of Alaska Pollock Protein Isolate

In this study, the Alaska pollock protein isolate(APPI) was hydrolyzed by Neutrase for 20, 40, 80, 120, 160, 200, and 240 min. Hydrolysates with different molecular weights were produced and they were named as H1–H7. Furthermore, the effects of hydrolysis on the average molecular weights, functional properties(solubility, oil-holding capacities, foaming activities, and emulsifying properties), and antioxidant activities(1, 1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl, superoxide, and hydroxyl free radical-scavenging activities) were determined. It was found that when the degree of hydrolysis(DH) increased, the average molecular weights of the hydrolysates decreased significantly. The functional properties of APPI were also significantly improved. The hydrolysates of APPI exhibited better solubility, emulsifying activities, and foaming activities. Hydrolysates with low molecular weights(<1 kDa) had better solubility, oil-holding capacities, and emulsifying activities, while hydrolysates with higher molecular weights(>1 kDa) had better foaming activities. In addition, the hydrolysates exhibited excellent antioxidant properties, while the inhibition values of 1, 1-diphenyl-2-picryl hydroxyl(DPPH), superoxide, and hydroxyl free radical-scavenging activities, were 85.22%, 53.56%, and 75.00% respectively, when the concentration of the hydrolysates was 5.0 mg mL^(-1). The lower the average molecular weight was, the higher was the antioxidant activity. These results indicated that hydrolysis with Neutrase is an effective method for improving the functional and antioxidant properties of APPI. The hydrolysates of APPI displayed great potentials to be used as natural antioxidants in protein-rich aqueous foods such as nutrient supplements and sports beverages.

Active-Layer Soil Moisture Content Regional Variations in Alaska and Russia by Ground-Based and Satellite-Based Methods, 2002 through 2014

Soil moisture is a vital physical parameter of the active-layer in permafrost environments, and associated biological and geophysical processes operative at the microscopic to hemispheric spatial scales and at hourly to multi-decadal time scales. While?in-situ?measurements can give the highest quality of information on a site-specific basis, the vast permafrost terrains of North America and Eurasia require space-based techniques for assessments of cause and effect and long-term changes and impacts from the changes of permafrost and the active-layer. Satellite-based 6.925 and 10.65 GHz sensor algorithmic retrievals of soil moisture by Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) onboard NASA-Aqua and follow-on AMSR2 onboard JAXA-Global Change Observation Mission—Water-1 are ongoing since July 2002. Accurate land-surface temperature and vegetation parameters are critical to the success of passive microwave algorithmic retrieval schemes. Strategically located soil moisture measurements are needed for spatial and temporal co-location evaluation and validation of the space-based algorithmic estimates. We compare on a daily basis ground-based (subsurface-probe) 50- and 70-MHz radio-frequency soil moisture measurements with NASA- and JAXA-algorithmic retrieval passive microwave retrievals. We find improvements in performance of the JAXA-algorithm (AMSR-E reprocessed and AMSR2 ongoing) relative to the earlier NASA-algorithm version. In the boreal forest regions, accurate land-surface temperatures and vegetation parameters are still needed for algorithmic retrieval success. Over the period of AMSR-E retrievals, we find evidence of at the high northern latitudes of growing terrestrial radio-frequency interference in the 10.65 GHz channel soil moisture content. This is an important error source for satellite-based active and passive microwave remote sensing soil moisture retrievals in Arctic regions that must be addressed.

Wildfire effects on permafrost and soil moisture in spruce forests of Interior Alaska

In the summer of 2015,hundreds of forest fires burned across the state of Alaska.Several uncontrolled wildfires near the town of Tanana on the Yukon River were responsible for the largest portion of the area burned statewide.In July 2017,field measurements were carried out in both unburned and burned forested areas nearly adjacent to one another,all within 15 miles of the village of Tanana.These surveys were used to first visually verify locations of different burn severity classes,(low,moderate,or high),estimated in 2016 from Landsat images(collected before and after the 2015 Tanana-area wildfires).Surface and soil profile measurements to 30-cm depth at these same locations were collected for evidence of moss layer and forest biomass burning.Soil temperature and moisture content were measured to 30-cm depth,and depth to permafrost was estimated by excavation wherever necessary.Digital thermal infra-red images of the soil profiles were taken at each site location,and root-zone organic layer samples were extracted for further chemical analysis.Results supported the hypothesis that the loss of surface organic layers is a major factor determining post-fire soil water and temperature changes and the depth of permafrost thawing.In the most severely burned forest sites,complete consumption of the living moss organic layer was strongly associated with both warming at the surface layer and increases in soil water content,relative to unburned forest sites.Soil temperatures at both 10-cm and 30-cm depths at burned forest sites were higher by 8-10C compared to unburned sites.Below 15 cm,temperatures of unburned sites dropped gradually to frozen levels by 30 cm,while soil temperatures at burned sites remained above 5C to 30-cm depth.The water content measured at 3 cm at burned sites was commonly in excess of 30%by volume,compared to unburned sites.The strong correlation between burn index values and depth to permafrost measured across all sites sampled in July 2017 showed that the new ice-free profile in severely burned forest areas was commonly 50-cm deeper than in unburned soils.

Wind Climatology for Alaska: Historical and Future

Wind is a climate variable with major impacts on humans, ecosystems and infrastructure, especially in coastal regions with cold climates. Climate-related changes in high-wind events therefore have major implications for high-latitude residents, yet there has heretofore been no systematic evaluation of such changes in a framework spanning historical and future timeframes. In this study, hourly winds from surface station reports and from dynamical downscaling of winds simulated by two different global climate models have been synthesized into historical and future wind climatologies for Alaska. Quantile mapping procedures are used to calibrate wind simulations driven by an atmospheric reanalysis, and the calibrated winds are then used to bias-adjust the full distributions of historical and future winds downscaled from the global climate models. In the resulting climatologies, winds are generally stronger at coastal and offshore (island) locations than at interior sites, where calm conditions are frequent in winter. The season of peak wind speed varies from winter in the coastal and offshore locations to summer in interior areas. High-wind events determined from the hourly data are most frequent during winter at coastal locations. Projected changes for the late 21st century are statistically significant at many locations, and they show a qualitatively similar seasonality in the output from the two models: an increase of mean wind speeds in the cold season and a decrease of mean wind speeds in the warm season. High-wind events are projected by both models to become more frequent in the northern and western Alaska coastal regions, which are precisely the regions in which the protective sea ice cover has decreased (and is projected to decrease further), pointing to increased risks of coastal flooding and erosion.

Investigation on variations of apparent stress in the region in and around the rupture volume preceding the occurrence of the 2021 Alaska MW8.2 earthquake

On July 29, 2021, a large earthquake of MW8.2 occurred south of the Alaska Peninsula. To investigate the spatial-temporal changes of crustal stress in the earthquake-stricken area before this event, we selected 159 earthquakes of 4.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.9 that occurred in the epicentral region and its surroundings between January 1980 and June 2021 to study the temporal variation and spatial distribution of their apparent stress. In addition, we analyzed the correlation between seismic activities and Earth’s rotation and explored the seismogenic process of this earthquake. The crustal stress rose from January 2008 to December 2016. This period was followed by a sub-instability stage from January 2017 until the occurrence of the MW8.2 earthquake. The average rate of apparent stress change in the first five years of the stress increase period was roughly 2.3 times that in the last four years. The lateral distribution of the apparent stress shows that the areas with apparent stress greater than 1.0 MPa exhibited an expanding trend during the seismogenic process. The maximum apparent stress was located at the earthquake epicenter during the last four years. The distribution of the apparent stress in the E-W vertical cross section revealed that an apparent stress gap formed around the hypocenter during the first five years of the stress increase period, surrounded by areas of relatively high apparent stress. After the Alaska earthquake, most parts of this gap were filled in by aftershocks. The seismic activities during the sub-instability stage exhibited a significant correlation with Earth’s rotation.

L-Band InSAR Penetration Depth Experiment, North Slope Alaska

Since the first spacecraft-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) mission NASA’s SEASAT in 1978 radars have been flown in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by other national space agencies including the Canadian Space Agency, European Space Agency, India Space Research Organization and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency. Improvements in electronics, miniaturization and production have allowed for the deployment of SAR systems on aircraft for usage in agriculture, hazards assessment, land-use management and planning, meteorology, oceanography and surveillance. LEO SAR systems still provide a range of needful and timely information on large and small-scale weather conditions like those found across the Arctic where ground-base weather radars currently provide limited coverage. For investigators of solid-earth deformation attention must be given to the atmosphere on Interferometric SAR (InSAR) by aircraft and spacecraft multi-pass operations. Because radar has the capability to penetrate earth materials at frequencies from the P- to X-band attention must be given to the frequency dependent penetration depth and volume scattering. This is the focus of our new research project: to test the penetration depth of L-band SAR/InSAR by aircraft and spacecraft systems at a test site in Arctic Alaska using multi-frequency analysis and progressive burial of radar mesh-reflectors at measured depths below tundra while monitoring environmental conditions. Knowledge of the L-band penetration depth on lowland Arctic tundra is necessary to constrain analysis of carbon mass balance and hazardous conditions arising from permafrost degradation and thaw, surface heave and subsidence and thermokarst formation at local and regional scales.

Atmospheric Deposition and Critical Loads for Nitrogen and Metals in Arctic Alaska: Review and Current Status

To protect important resources under their bureau’s purview, the United States National Park Service’s (NPS) Arctic Network (ARCN) has developed a series of “vital signs” that are to be periodically monitored. One of these vital signs focuses on wet and dry deposition of atmospheric chemicals and further, the establishment of critical load (CL) values (thresholds for ecological effects based on cumulative depositional loadings) for nitrogen (N), sulfur, and metals. As part of the ARCN terrestrial monitoring programs, samples of the feather moss Hylocomium splendens are being collected and analyzed as a cost-effective means to monitor atmospheric pollutant deposition in this region. Ultimately, moss data combined with refined CL values might be used to help guide future regulation of atmospheric contaminant sources potentially impacting Arctic Alaska. But first, additional long-term studies are needed to determine patterns of contaminant deposition as measured by moss biomonitors and to quantify ecosystem responses at particular loadings/ ranges of contaminants within Arctic Alaska. Herein we briefly summarize 1) current regulatory guidance related to CL values 2) derivation of CL models for N and metals, 3) use of mosses as biomonitors of atmospheric deposition and loadings, 4) preliminary analysis of vulnerabilities and risks associated with CL estimates for N, 5) preliminary analysis of existing data for characterization of CL values for N for interior Alaska and 6) implications for managers and future research needs.

Assessment of WRF/Chem Simulated Vertical Distributions of Particulate Matter from the 2009 Minto Flats South Wildfire in Interior Alaska by CALIPSO Total Backscatter and Depolarization Measurements

This feasibility study examined whether total backscatter and depolarization measurements from Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) in combination with sparse surface meteorological data and other information permitted qualitative assessment of simulated vertical and horizontal distributions of aerosols from wildfires over Interior Alaska. Comparisons between co-located WRF/Chem cross-sections and CALIPSO curtains showed temporal and spatial differences in smoke-plume height above ground, vertical and horizontal extension. Simple estimates of contributions of errors and processes elucidated that the different spatial and temporal resolution of model grid-cells and the lidar scan could provide offsets of the magnitude found in the comparison. The overestimation of 10 m wind speeds by on average 1.33 m&#183s&#451 contributed to the offset. Energy estimates suggested that the energy needed for permafrost thawing may contribute to discrepancies between simulated and CALIPSO indicated plume height. A sensitivity study with lower emission rates showed similar features. The study demonstrated that use of CALIPSO data in combination with data from other sources than air-quality networks could serve for identification of potential model shortcomings by assessment of magnitudes of error and process impacts.

Effects of High Hydrostatic Pressure on the Solubilities and Structures of Alaska Pollock Protein

Alaska pollock is an important protein source which is extensively used in the food industry. Pollock protein isolates(PPI) with significantly enriched protein contents could be prepared using isoelectric solubilization/precipitation(ISP) processing; however, the functional properties of this process is limited by the large amount of water-insoluble proteins. In this study, we investigated the influence of high hydrostatic pressure(HHP) treatment on the solubility and structural changes of PPI. PPI obtained using ISP is treated with hydrostatic pressures of 200, 300, 400, and 500 MPa for up to 15 min, and the HHP-treated samples were observed to exhibit significantly improved solubilities. Further biochemical assays reveal that the continuous HHP treatments reduce the contents of free sulfhydryl groups and promote the formation of macromolecules with better water solubilities, which may induce the solubility improvements of the HHP-treated PPI. Our results indicate that HHP can be utilized to effectively prepare highly water-soluble Alaska pollock protein in food processing.

Warming but not thawing of the cold permafrost in northern Alaska during the past 50 years

Climate warming has not resulted in measurable thawing of the cold (–5°C to –10°C) permafrost in northern Alaska during the last half century. The maximum depths of summer thaw at five locations near Barrow, Alaska, in 2005 were within the ranges of the depths obtained at those same locations during the early 1950s. However, there has been a net warming of about 2°C, after a cooling of 0.4°C during 1953–1960, at the upper depths of the permafrost column at two of the locations. Thawing of permafrost from above (increase in active layer thickness) is determined by the summer thawing index for the specific year; any warming, or cooling, of the upper permafrost column results from the cumulative effect of changes in the average annual air temperatures over a period of years, assuming no change in surface conditions. Theoretically, thawing from the base of permafrost should be negligible even in areas of thin (about 100–200 m) permafrost in northern Alaska. The reported shoreline erosion along the northern Alaska coast is a secondary result from changes in the adjacent ocean ice coverage during the fall stormy period, and is not directly because of any 'thawing' of the permafrost.