An Information Analysis Decision System

In recent years, we are increasingly coping with macro, complex and large-scale system in whichinformations twist together. It is a worthwhile research to develop general computer-aided meth-od for decision-making on the basis of processing, analysing and deducing from the informationobtained.

GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Techniques to Derive Flood Risks Management on Rice Productivity in Gishari Marshland

Floods are phenomenon with significant socio-economic implications mainly for human loss, agriculture, livestock, soil loss and land degradation, for which many researchers try to identify the most appropriate methodologies by analyzing their temporal and spatial development. This study therefore attempts to employ the GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis and analytical hierarchy process techniques to derive the flood risks management on rice productivity in the Gishari Agricultural Marshland in Rwamagana district, Rwanda. Here, six influencing potential factors to flooding, including river slope, soil texture, Land Use Land Cover through Land Sat 8, rainfall, river distance and Digital Elevation Model are considered for the delineation of flood risk zones. Data acquisition like Landsat 8 images, DEM, land use land cover, slope, and soil class in the study area were considered. Results showed that if the DEM is outdated or inaccurate due to changes in the terrain, such as construction, excavation, or erosion, the predicted flood patterns might not reflect the actual water flow. This could result unexpected flood extents and depths, potentially inundating rice fields that were not previously at risk and this, expectedly explained that the increase 1 m in elevation would reduce the rice productivity by 0.17% due to unplanned flood risks in marshland. It was found that the change in rainfall distribution in Gishari agricultural marshland would also decrease the rice productivity by 0.0018%, which is a sign that rainfall is a major factor of flooding in rice scheme. Rainfall distribution plays a crucial role in flooding analysis and can directly impact rice productivity. Oppositely, another causal factor was Land Use Land Cover (LULC), where the Multivariate Logistic Regression Model Analysis findings showed that the increase of one unit in Land Use Land Cover would increase rice productivity by 0.17% of the total rice productivity from the Gishari Agricultural Marshland. Based on findings from these techniques, the Gishari Agricultural Marshlands having steeped land with grassland is classified into five classes of flooding namely very low, low, moderate, high, and very high which include 430%, 361%, 292%, 223%, and 154%. Government of Rwanda and other implementing agencies and major key actors have to contribute on soil and water conservation strategies to reduce the runoff and soil erosion as major contributors of flooding.

Potential landfill site selection for solid waste disposal using GIS and multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA)

Proper solid waste disposal is an important socioeconomic concern for all developing countries.Municipalities have their own policies,individual approaches and methods to manage the solid wastes.They consider wastelands outside the urban area as the best suitable for the solid waste disposal.Such improper site selection will create morphological changes that lead to environmental hazards in the urban and its surrounding areas.In this research,the site selection for urban solid waste disposal in the Coimbatore district used geographical information system(GIS)and multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA).Thematic layers of lineament density,landuse/landcover,population density,groundwater depth,drainage density,slope,soil texture,geology and geomorphology were considered as primary criteria and weights for criteria,and sub-criteria were assigned by MCDA analysis.The resultant weight score was validated by consistency ratio so that the efficiency of the selected criteria was justified.The overlay analysis in GIS environment provides 17 potential zones in Coimbatore district,among which,four suitable sites were screened and refined with the help of field investigation and visual interpretation of satellite image.The result of landfill suitability map shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Canadian children’s and youth’s adherence to the 24-h movement guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic: A decision tree analysis

Purpose:The purpose of this study was to use decision tree modeling to generate profiles of children and youth who were more and less likely to meet the Canadian 24-h movement guidelines during the coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)outbreak.Methods:Data for this study were from a nationally representative sample of 1472 Canadian parents(Meanage=45.12,SD=7.55)of children(511 years old)or youth(1217 years old).Data were collected in April 2020 via an online survey.Survey items assessed demographic,behavioral,social,micro-environmental,and macro-environmental characteristics.Four decision trees of adherence and non-adherence to all movement recommendations combined and each individual movement recommendation(physical activity(PA),screen time,and sleep)were generated.Results:Results revealed specific combinations of adherence and non-adherence characteristics.Characteristics associated with adherence to the recommendation(s)included high parental perceived capability to restrict screen time,annual household income ofCAD 100,000,increases in children’s and youth’s outdoor PA/sport since the COVID-19 outbreak began,being a boy,having parents younger than 43 years old,and small increases in children’s and youth’s sleep duration since the COVID-19 outbreak began.Characteristics associated with non-adherence to the recommendation(s)included low parental perceived capability to restrict screen time,youth aged 1217 years,decreases in children’s and youth’s outdoor PA/sport since the COVID-19 outbreak began,primary residences located in all provinces except Quebec,low parental perceived capability to support children’s and youth’s sleep and PA,and annual household income ofCAD 99,999.Conclusion:Our results show that specific characteristics interact to contribute to(non)adherence to the movement behavior recommendations.Results highlight the importance of targeting parents’perceived capability for the promotion of children’s and youth’s movement behaviors during challenging times of the COVID-19 pandemic,paying particular attention to enhancing parental perceived capability to restrict screen time.

Utilizing comprehensive decision analysis methods to determine an optimal planting pattern and nitrogen application for winter oilseed rape

Oilseed rape is one of the most important oil crops globally.Attaining the appropriate cultivation method(planting pattern and nitrogen level)is necessary to achieve high yield,quality and resource utilization efficiency.However,the optimal method for oilseed rape varies across countries and regions.The objective of the present study was to determine an appropriate cultivation method,including planting pattern and nitrogen application,for winter oilseed rape in northwestern China.Two planting patterns:ridge film mulching and furrow planting(RFMF)and flat planting(FP),and six nitrogen(N)amounts:0(N0),60(N60),120(N120),180(N180),240(N240),and 300(N300)kg N ha–1 were applied across three growing seasons(2014–2017).Three comprehensive decision analysis methods:principal component analysis,grey correlation degree analysis and the combined entropy weight and dynamic technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution method were used to evaluate the growth and physiological indicators,nutrient uptake,yield,quality,evapotranspiration,and water use efficiency of winter oilseed rape.Planting pattern,nitrogen amount and their interaction significantly affected the indicators aforementioned.The RFMF pattern significantly increased all indicators over the FP pattern.Application of N also markedly increased all the indicators except for seed oil content,but the yield,oil production and water use efficiency were decreased when N fertilizer exceeded 180 kg N ha–1 under FP and 240 kg N ha–1 under RFFM.The evaluation results of the three comprehensive decision analysis methods indicated that RFMF planting pattern with 240 kg N ha–1 is an appropriate cultivation method for winter oilseed rape in northwestern China.These findings are of vital significance to maximize yield,optimize quality and improve resource use efficiencies of winter oilseed rape.

System failure analysis based on DEMATEL–ISM and FMECA

A new method of system failure analysis was proposed. First, considering the relationships between the failure subsystems,the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL) method was used to calculate the degree of correlation between the failure subsystems, analyze the combined effect of related failures, and obtain the degree of correlation by using the directed graph and matrix operations. Then, the interpretative structural modeling(ISM) method was combined to intuitively show the logical relationship of many failure subsystems and their influences on each other by using multilevel hierarchical structure model and obtaining the critical subsystems. Finally, failure mode effects and criticality analysis(FMECA) was used to perform a qualitative hazard analysis of critical subsystems, determine the critical failure mode, and clarify the direction of reliability improvement.Through an example, the result demonstrates that the proposed method can be efficiently applied to system failure analysis problems.

Holistic approach of GIS based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis(MCDA) and WetSpass models to evaluate groundwater potential in Gelana watershed of Ethiopia

Appropriate quantification and identification of the groundwater distribution in a hydrological basin may provide necessary information for effective management,planning and development of groundwater resources.Groundwater potential assessment and delineation in a highly heterogeneous environment with limited Spatiotemporal data derived from Gelana watershed of Abaya Chamo lake basin is performed,using integrated multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA),water and energy transfer between soil and plant and atmosphere under quasi-steady state(WetSpass)models.The outputs of the WetSpass model reveal a favorable structure of water balance in the basin studied,mainly using surface runoff.The simulated total flow and groundwater recharge are validated using river measurements and estimated baseflow at two gauging stations located in the study area,which yields a good agreement.The WetSpass model effectively integrates a water balance assessment in a geographical information system(GIS)environment.The WetSpass model is shown to be computationally reputable for such a remote complex setting as the African rift,with a correlation coefficient of 0.99 and 0.99 for total flow and baseflow at a significant level of p-value<0.05,respectively.The simulated annual water budget reveals that 77.22%of annual precipitation loses through evapotranspiration,of which 16.54%is lost via surface runoff while 6.24%is recharged to the groundwater.The calibrated groundwater recharge from the WetSpass model is then considered when determining the controlling factors of groundwater occurrence and formation,together with other multi-thematic layers such as lithology,geomorphology,lineament density and drainage density.The selected five thematic layers through MCDA are incorporated by employing the analytical hierarchy process(AHP)method to identify the relative dominance in groundwater potential zoning.The weighted factors in the AHP are procedurally aggregated,based on weighted linear combinations to provide the groundwater potential index.Based on the potential indexes,the area then is demarcated into low,moderate,and high groundwater potential zones(GWPZ).The identified GWPZs are finally examined using the existing groundwater inventory data(static water level and springs)in the region.About 70.7%of groundwater inventory points are coinciding with the delineated GWPZs.The weighting comparison shows that lithology,geomorphology,and groundwater recharge appear to be the dominant factors influence on the resources potential.The assessment of groundwater potential index values identify 45.88%as high,39.38%moderate,and 14.73%as low groundwater potential zones.WetSpass model analysis is more preferable in the area like Gelana watershed when the topography is rugged,inaccessible and having limited gauging stations.

Use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis Methods for Water Supply Problems： A Framework for Improved Rainwater Harvesting

Several conflicting objectives are considered in decision-making. MCDA （multi-criteria decision analysis） methods are developed to facilitate better decision making by decision-makers. Water supply problems are complex problems with multiple decision making and criteria. Hence, the use of multi-criteria decision analysis is very appropriate for solving these problems. Multi-criteria decision analysis can be divided into three main groups： value measurement models, goals, aspiration and reference level models and outranking models. The methods listed have been applied to water supply problems, especially in the evaluation of alternative water supply strategies. Each method has its advantages and limitations. A good alternative for concluding a better-suited method for water supply problems is to apply more than one method, either in combination to make use of the strengths of both methods, or in parallel to obtain a broader decision basis for the decision maker. Previous studies of MCDA in water supply planning have usually considered water supply networks with only one water service delivery. Advanced water supply sources with multiple water service delivery systems have been neglected. This is an on-going study in which analytical hierarchical multi-criteria decision analysis methods are proposed for solving water supply problems and a framework for improved rainwater harvesting systems will be developed.

A Risk-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Approach to Evaluating Transboundary Water Development—The Case of Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower development, the LMB has been facing significant challenges concerning its biodiversity and ecosystem. In 2017, Mekong River Commission (MRC), an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1995 among LMB countries, established the Council Study, which analysed the impacts of water development scenarios concerning the environmental, socioeconomic aspects of the LMB. This paper explores the nature of risks to the LMB water development and subsequently evaluates LMB’s water development scenarios described in the Council Study by using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. MCDA method has been widely applied in the field of water resource management in order to assist the decision-making process by systematically evaluating a certain number of alternatives against well-selected criteria through a preference rating scheme. By implementing a risk-based comprehensive assessment of the LMB transboundary water, this study provides insights into the impacts of the increasing risks to the ecosystem and human beings on the water development of the basin over time, which assists to change the awareness and the perspective toward humans’ risks and transboundary river ecosystem of decision-makers. This paper provides valuable recommendations for MRC to improve their policy concerning benefit-sharing scheme, water planning and risk mitigation strategies.

Groundwater Exploration Using Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process in Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Central Nigeria

There exists a growing demand for potable water resources to fill the abysmally insufficient water needs for domestic and industrial especially in the Basement Complex terrains of Nigeria. This situation is attributable to its complex hydrogeologic character. The present challenge has worsened due to the non-incorporation of integrated methods in groundwater exploration campaigns. To effectively combat the challenge of unacceptable failure rates in drilled water well development, there is a need for innovative scientific principles and quantitative assessment of groundwater resources to enhance sustainable and proper utilisation of these resources. Hence, it is the objective of this research to exploit the potential application of remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques and freely open datasets in mapping groundwater potential zones. Seven thematic maps have been produced based on factors that are deemed to influence and deemed to have significant control on the occurrence and movement of groundwater. These factors are geology, lineament density, slope, drainage density, rainfall, land-use/land cover, and soil class. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assign normalised weights to the thematic maps based on the various relative contributions to groundwater occurrence and movement. These thematic maps were then processed in a GIS environment using the Weighted Overlay tool which implements the MCDA. The resulting Groundwater Potential Zones (GPZ) of the area gave rise to Five classes viz: Very good, Good, Moderate, Poor and Very Poor representing 19%, 8%, 14%, 47% and 13% respectively. It is recommended that the GPZ map should be used as a reconnaissance tool for selecting prospective sites for detailed groundwater resource exploitation.

“AniFair”:A GUI Based Software Tool for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis--An Example of Assessing Animal Welfare

Multi-criteria decision analysis deals with decision problems in which multiple criteria need to be considered. The criteria might be measured on different scales so that comparability is difficult. One approach to help the user to organize the problem and to reflect on his or her assessment on the decision is Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation TecHnique (MACBETH). Here the user needs to provide qualitative judgment about differences of attractiveness regarding pairs of options. MACBETH was implemented in the M-MACBETH software using the additive aggregation model. The present article introduces the software tool “AniFair” which combines the MACBETH approach with the Choquet integral as an aggregation function, because the Choquet integral enables the modeling of interaction between criteria. With the Choquet integral, the user can define constraints on the relative importance of criteria (Shapley value) and the interaction between criteria. In contrast to M-MACBETH, with every instance of “AniFair” the user is made available at least two aggregation level. “AniFair” provides Graphical User Interfaces for the entering of information. The software tool is introduced via an example from the Welfare Quality Assessment protocol for pigs. With this, “AniFair” is applied to real data that were collected from thirteen farms in Northern Germany by an animal welfare expert. The “AniFair” results enabled a division of the farms into five groups of comparable performance concerning the welfare principle “Good feeding”. Hereby, the results differed in how much the interaction between criteria contributed to the Choquet integral values. The shares varied from 5% to 55%. With this, the vulnerability of aggregation results towards relative importance of and interaction between criteria was stressed, as changes in the ranking due to the definition of constraints could be shown. All results were exported to human readable txt or csv files for further analyses, and advice could be given to the farmers on how to improve their welfare situation.

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Usage Based Optimization of Powertrains

The electrification of powertrains leads to an increasing diversification of powertrain configurations. Each single configuration has its specific advantages which appear depending on the usage profile. To find the usage based optimal powertrain in consideration of a variety of evaluation criteria, the powertrains have to be optimized for the usage profile and characteristics have to be extracted from the usage profile. The carbon dioxide emissions of the optimized powertrains and usage based criteria are used in a multi-criteria decision analysis to determine the optimal powertrain for a specific usage profile. The description of characteristic maps forms the objective function of a minimization problem. The determined carbon dioxide emissions are one criterion in a multi-criteria decision process. All considered criteria are at least partly objective so that subjective ratings are eliminated as far as possible. The result is an optimized powertrain for a desired usage under the consideration of objective criteria that are extracted from the usage profile.

Financing Decisions Analysis of E-commerce Supply Chain Finance for Fresh Agricultural Products in China

The supply chain finance(SCF)solutions are becoming increasingly diversified with the continuous perfection of the economic system.However,financing for small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs)is still a difficult issue waiting to be solved by enterprises and the government in China.SCF solutions based on e-commerce platforms have developed rapidly in China that provide an alternative for SMEs when few studies have been conducted on e-commerce SCF solutions which focus on fresh agricultural products.Therefore,this research focuses on the SCF solutions applicable to e-commerce enterprises of fresh agricultural products.

Nomogram predicting the prognosis of primary liver cancer after radiofrequency ablation combined with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND The incidence and mortality rates of primary hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)are high,and the conventional treatment is radiofrequency ablation(RFA)with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization(TACE);however,the 3-year survival rate is still low.Further,there are no visual methods to effectively predict their prognosis.AIM To explore the factors influencing the prognosis of HCC after RFA and TACE and develop a nomogram prediction model.METHODS Clinical and follow-up information of 150 patients with HCC treated using RFA and TACE in the Hangzhou Linping Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from May 2020 to December 2022 was retrospectively collected and recorded.We examined their prognostic factors using multivariate logistic regression and created a nomogram prognosis prediction model using the R software(version 4.1.2).Internal verification was performed using the bootstrapping technique.The prognostic efficacy of the nomogram prediction model was evaluated using the concordance index(CI),calibration curve,and receiver operating characteristic RESULTS Of the 150 patients treated with RFA and TACE,92(61.33%)developed recurrence and metastasis.Logistic regression analysis identified six variables,and a predictive model was created.The internal validation results of the model showed a CI of 0.882.The correction curve trend of the prognosis prediction model was always near the diagonal,and the mean absolute error before and after internal validation was 0.021.The area under the curve of the prediction model after internal verification was 0.882[95%confidence interval(95%CI):0.820-0.945],with a specificity of 0.828 and sensitivity of 0.656.According to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test,χ^(2)=3.552 and P=0.895.The predictive model demonstrated a satisfactory calibration,and the decision curve analysis demonstrated its clinical applicability.CONCLUSION The prognosis of patients with HCC after RFA and TACE is affected by several factors.The developed prediction model based on the influencing parameters shows a good prognosis predictive efficacy.

Benefit-Risk Assessment of Chinese Medicine Injections for Primary Liver Cancer Based on Multi-criteria Decision Analysis

ObjectiveTo evaluate the benefit-risk of 3 commonly used Chinese medicine injections, Aidi Injection (ADI), Cinobufagin Injection (CINI) and Compound Kushen Injection (CKI), in the treatment of primary liver cancer (PLC), so as to provide a reference for clinical decision-making.MethodsRandomized controlled trials (RCTs) of ADI, CINI and CKI in the treatment of PLC published in the databases of China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, China Science and Technology Journal Database, SinoMed, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were retrieved from January 2020 to October 2022. The data of benefit and risk indicators were combined to obtain the effect value. The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model was applied to build the decision tree. The benefit value, risk value and benefit risk value of the 3 injections in PLC treatment were calculated. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to calculate the 95% confidence interval and probability of differences among the 3 injections, so as to optimize the evaluation results.ResultsA total of 71 RCTs were included. The benefit values of ADI, CINI and CKI combined with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) were 42, 38 and 36, respectively. The risk values were 42, 25 and 37, respectively. The benefit risk values were 42, 31 and 37, respectively. The benefit risk differences of ADI vs. CINI, ADI vs. CKI, and CKI vs. CINI were 11 (−0.86, 17.75), 5 (−5.01, 11.09), and 6 (−1.87, 12.63), respectively. The probability that ADI superior to CINI, ADI superior to CKI, and CKI superior to CINI was 96.26%, 77.27%, and 92.62%, respectively.ConclusionBased on the results of MCDA model, CINI combined with TACE has the greatest risk in the treatment of the PLC. Considering the efficacy and safety, the possible priority of the 3 Chinese medicine injections combined with TACE in the treatment of PLC is ADI, CKI and CINI.

Method“Monte Carlo”in healthcare

In public health,simulation modeling stands as an invaluable asset,enabling the evaluation of new systems without their physical implementation,experimentation with existing systems without operational adjustments,and testing system limits without real-world repercussions.In simulation modeling,the Monte Carlo method emerges as a powerful yet underutilized tool.Although the Monte Carlo method has not yet gained widespread prominence in healthcare,its technological capabilities hold promise for substantial cost reduction and risk mitigation.In this review article,we aimed to explore the transformative potential of the Monte Carlo method in healthcare contexts.We underscore the significance of experiential insights derived from simulated experimentation,especially in resource-constrained scenarios where time,financial constraints,and limited resources necessitate innovative and efficient approaches.As public health faces increasing challenges,incorporating the Monte Carlo method presents an opportunity for enhanced system construction,analysis,and evaluation.

A Dimensional Reduction Approach Based on Essential Constraints in Linear Programming

This paper presents a new dimension reduction strategy for medium and large-scale linear programming problems. The proposed method uses a subset of the original constraints and combines two algorithms: the weighted average and the cosine simplex algorithm. The first approach identifies binding constraints by using the weighted average of each constraint, whereas the second algorithm is based on the cosine similarity between the vector of the objective function and the constraints. These two approaches are complementary, and when used together, they locate the essential subset of initial constraints required for solving medium and large-scale linear programming problems. After reducing the dimension of the linear programming problem using the subset of the essential constraints, the solution method can be chosen from any suitable method for linear programming. The proposed approach was applied to a set of well-known benchmarks as well as more than 2000 random medium and large-scale linear programming problems. The results are promising, indicating that the new approach contributes to the reduction of both the size of the problems and the total number of iterations required. A tree-based classification model also confirmed the need for combining the two approaches. A detailed numerical example, the general numerical results, and the statistical analysis for the decision tree procedure are presented.

Multi-Criteria Wildfire Risk Hazard Assessment in GIS Environment: Projection for the Future and Impact on RES Projects Installation Planning

It is alarming for the fact that Wildfires number, severity and consequently impact have significantly increased during the last years, an aftermath of the Climate Change. One of the most affected areas worldwide is Mediterranean, due to the unique combination of its type of vegetation and demanding climatic conditions. This research is focused on the Region of Epirus in Greece, an area with significant natural vegetation and a range of geomorphological aspects. In order to estimate the Wildfire Risk Hazard, several factors have been used: geomorphological (slope, aspect, elevation, TWI, Hydrographic network), social (Settlements and landfils, roads, overhead lines and substations), environmental (land cover) and climatic (Fire Weather Index). Through a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in a GIS environment, the Wildfire Risk Hazard has been estimated not only for current conditions but also for future projections for the near future (2031-2060) and the far future (2071-2100). The selected case study includes the potential impact of the Wildfires to the installed (or targeted to be installed) RES projects in the studied region.

Decision modelling for economic evaluation of liver transplantation

As the gap between a shortage of organs and the im-mense demand for liver grafts persists, every available donor liver needs to be optimized for utility, urgency and equity. To overcome this challenge, decision modelling might allow us to gather evidence from previous studies as well as compare the costs and consequences of alternative options. For public health policy and clinical intervention assessment, it is a potentially powerful tool. The most commonly used types of decision analytical models include decision trees, the Markov model, microsimulation, discrete event simulation and the system dynamic model. Analytic models could support decision makers in the field of liver transplantation when facing specifc problems by synthesizing evidence, comprising all relevant options, generalizing results to other contexts, extending the time horizon and exploring the uncertainty. For modeling studies of economic evaluation for transplantation, understanding the current nature of the disease is crucial, as well as the selection of appropriate modelling techniques. The quality and availability of data is another key element for the selection and development of decision analytical models. In addition, good practice guidelines should be complied, which is important for standardization and comparability between economic outputs.

The Application of Optimum Decision in Oilfield Development

The major steps of oilfield development are given in this paper. The optimal model of oilfield development is built and the methods of optimum decision analysis are studied. The solution and analysis of the optimal tactics have been set up according to the data collected in the oilfield.