Trend Analysis in Annual and Monthly Pan Evaporation and Pan Coefficient in the Context of Climate Change in Togo

Trend analysis was performed for the long-term measured pan evaporation and estimated pan coefficient for 4 meteorological stations during 1976-2011 in Togo. Measured pan evaporation was recorded at four meteorological stations in Togo for the global period of 1976 to 2011 at Lome, Tabligbo, Atakpame, and Sokode. ETo was estimated using the Penman-Monteith model. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. The results showed that annual Epan varied from 1803 to 2081 mm at Lome, from 1294 to 1496 mm at Tabligbo, from 1605 to 1974 mm at Atakpame and from 1839 to 1990 mm at Sokode. It had significant increasing trend at Lome, Tabligbo, and Sokode and a negative trend at Atakpame. Monthly Epan varied from 137 to 197 mm at Lome, 89 to 149 mm at Tabligbo, 137 to 214 mm at Atakpame and from 137 to 190 mm at Sokode. At Lome, Kpan varied from 0.61 to 1.17 and averaged 0.81. At Tabligbo, Kpan varied from 0.59 to 0.98 and averaged 0.75. At Atakpame, Kpan varied from 0.5 to 2.0 and averaged 1.12. At Sokode, Kpan varied from 0.43 to 1.92 and averaged 0.98. Monthly mean Kpan is recommended for use in hydrological studies, irrigation scheduling and water management in Togo.

Molecular Epidemiological Analysis of Group A Streptococci Isolated from Children in Chaoyang District of Beijing, 2011:emm Types, Virulence Factor Genes and Erythromycin Resistant Genes

Group A streptococcus （GAS） causes a wide range of diseases in the human population. GAS diseases are more common in children than in adults, with clinical manifestations ranging from pharyngitis and impetigo to invasive infections and post streptococcal sequelae, such as acute rheumatic fever and acute post-streptococcal glomerulonephritis[1]. GAS harbors a host of virulence factors that contribute to its complex pathogenicity and differences in the disease severity and frequency. M protein, one of the major virulence factors, is encoded by the emm gene induces a type of specific host immune response and confers antiphagocytic properties.

Combination Use of PFGE and Drug-resistant Analysis in the Epidemiological Investigation of Listeria Monocytogenes

Listeria monocytogenes is the pathogen of listeriosis and it causes severe infections like septicemia, encephalitis, and meningitis, especially in immunocompromised individuals, newborns, and pregnant women. Its wide distribution in the environment and ability to survive or even grow under adverse conditions has made L. monocytogenes an important public health concern and in food industry.

Quantum Biophysics of the Atmosphere: Factor Analysis of the Annual Dynamics of Maximum, Minimum and Average Temperatures from 1879 to 2017 to Hadley English Temperature Center (Hadcet)

Factor analysis of annual dynamics from 1879 to 2017 was carried out by the method of identification of stable regularities:maximum,minimum and average air temperature of Central England according to HadCET.The sample capacity was 139 rows.In factor analysis,time is excluded,and it acts only as a system-forming factor that ensures the relationship between the three parameters of climate and weather.Therefore,the ade­quacy of the dynamics models is taken into account in the diagonal cells of the correlation matrix.In addition to time,different lists of objects are possible in factor analysis.The coefficient of correlation variation,that is,a measure of the functional relationship between the parameters of the system(annual weather at the weather station in Central England)is 0.8230 for trends,0.8603 taking into account the annual dynamics of the four-membered model obtained from the computational capabilities of the software environment CurveExpert-1.40,and 0.9578 for the full up to the error of measurement wavelet analysis of the dynamics of the values of three factors.In all three methods of factor analysis,the meteorolog­ical parameter«average Annual temperature»was in the first place as the influencing variable,the«Maximum temperature»was in the second place,and the«Minimum temperature»was in the third place.As the dependent measure in these areas there are three kinds of temperature.The comparison shows that among the binary relations between the three temperatures,the average temperature on the maximum air temperature in the surface layer of the atmosphere has the greatest influence on the correlation coefficient 0.9765.At the same time,all six equations refer to strong connections,so there is a high quantum certainty between the three types of temperature.But when predicting the most meaningful essence showed the maximum temperature.

Application of Ordinal Set Pair Analysis in Annual Rainfall Prediction of Liao River Basin

[Objective] The research aimed to study the application of ordinal set pair analysis in the annual precipitation prediction of Liao River basin.[Method] The ordinal theory was introduced into the set pair analysis modeling,and the prediction model of set pair analysis was improved.A kind of rainfall prediction model based on the ordinal set pair analysis (OSPA) was put forward.The time sequence of annual rainfall in the hydrological rainfall station of Liao River basin during 1956-2006 was the research objective.The annual rainfall during 1998-2006 was predicted by the model,and the error analysis was given.[Result] In the relative errors of predicted results by ordinal set pair analysis,there were six relative errors within 5%,which occupied 66.7% of the total prediction number.One relative error was during 5%-10%,which occupied 11.1% of the total prediction number.Two relative errors were during 10%-15%,which occupied 22.2% of the total prediction number.All the relative errors were less than 20%,which met the precision requirement of annual rainfall prediction in Forecast Specification of Hydrological Information.[Conclusion] The rainfall prediction based on the ordinal set pair analysis model had high precision,and the prediction result was ideal.It was suitable for the annual rainfall prediction.

WAVELET ANALYSIS OF INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN GUANGDONG

Climatological laws are studied for the annual frequency of tropical cyclone occurrence and the date of the yearly first landfall, which take place in the Guangdong province or pose serious threats on it from 1951 to 1999, using the data in the Yearly Book on Typhoons. A new method that has developed over recent years for the study of temporal sequences, the wavelet analysis, is used, in addition to more common statistical approaches. By analyzing two wavelet functions, MHAT and MORLET, we have compared the results of transformation of the wavelets provided that other conditions remain unchanged. It is discovered that the variance of MORLET wavelet has better indication of primary periods; period-time sequence charts can reflect major affecting periods for individual sections of time; when compared with the original sequence, the chart shows a little shift. On the other hand, such shift is absent in the MHAT wavelet, but its higher frequency part of variance covers up the primary periods to make its variance less predominant as compared to the MORLET wavelet. Besides, the work compares two different assumptions of an amplifying factor a. It is found that primary periods can be shown more clearly in the variance when a takes the exponential of 2 than it takes values continuously. Studying the annual frequency of tropical cyclones and the date of first appearance for periodic patterns, we have found that the primary periods extracted by this approach are similar to those obtained by wavelet transformation.

Annual Earnings Analysis with ARIMA for Future Earnings Prediction

This study investigates annual earnings analysis with ARIMA （Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average） for future earnings prediction. Earnings prediction is very important to be used in various aspect of decision making process, such as： investor, creditor, analyst, academicians, practitioners, etc.. Evidence supports the ARIMA model that it is more accurate. It also has a smaller size of error value.

Semen analysis from an epidemiologic perspective

The fifth edition of the World Health Organization （WHO） manual for semen analysis includes for the first time reference values for human semen characteristics. This paper considers whether such values will help to resolve the intensely debated data indicating temporal and geographical shifts in sperm counts and hypotheses that anthropogenic activities that result in the release of chemicals into the environment are detrimental to male reproductive health. The reasons that these reference values will not fulfil these purposes are also explained. Although established reference values for semen characteristics are of limited value in analytical epidemiologic research, the WHO guidelines are of utmost importance for supporting the development of appropriate research protocols. Moreover, in spite of its limitations, semen analysis is still a useful research tool in epidemiological research, and no superior alternatives are on the horizon.

Time Series and Spatial Epidemiological Analysis of the Prevalence of Iodine Deficiency Disorders in China

Objective To recognize the spatial and temporal characteristics of iodine deficiency disorders(IDD),China national IDD surveillance data for the years of 1995–2018 were analyzed.Methods Time series analysis was used to describe and predict the IDD related indicators,and spatial analysis was used to analyze the spatial distribution of salt iodine levels.Results In China,the median urinary iodine concentration increased in 1995–1997,then decreased to adequate levels,and are expected to remain appropriate in 2019–2022.The goiter rate continually decreased and is expected to be maintained at a low level.Since 2002,the coverage rates of iodized salt and the consumption rates of qualified iodized salt(the percentage of qualified iodized salt in all tested salt) increased and began to decline in 2012;they are expected to continue to decrease.Spatial epidemiological analysis indicated a positive spatial correlation in 2016–2018 and revealed feature regarding the spatial distribution of salt related indicators in coastal areas and areas near iodine-excess areas.Conclusions Iodine nutrition in China showed gradual improvements.However,a recent decline has been observed in some areas following changes in the iodized salt supply in China.In the future,more regulations regarding salt management should be issued to strengthen IDD control and prevention measures,and avoid the recurrence of IDD.

Epidemiological Analysis of Sexually Transmitted Disease Control and Prevention from 1998 to 2003 in Chongqing

Objectives： To understand trends and epidemiology of STDs in Chongqing from 1998 to 2003 and to provide scientific evidence for developing preventive strategies and distributing government health resources effectively. Methods： STD case-reporting data collected from 43 counties and districts in Chongqing from 1998 to 2003 were analyzed with STD Data Management Software and Excel Software. Results： A total of 133,323 cases of eight different STDs were reported from 1998-2003. The annual incidence of all eight STDs combined was 71.89/10^5.Generally, reported cases and incidence have decreased since 2001. Although gonorrhoea diagnoses made up a significant proportion of the STD burden, this proportion decreased annually. The proportion of the STD burden attributed to Condyloma accuminatum （CA） was always above 30 percent. The proportions of non-gonoccocal urethritis, genital herpes and syphilis within the combinedSTD burden increased gradually from 1998 to 2003.Reported cases of HIV increased rapidly over this time. A total of 214 HIV cases were reported from 1998 to 2003,the majority of which were among men. For HIV, the maleto-female ratio was 1.17, but CA was found among more women than men. Incidence for all STDs was highest among 20-39 year olds, who accounted for 72.2% of reported infections. The majority of STDs were transmitted through extra-marital intercourse,accounting for 55.3%. Conclusion： The STD epidemic in Chongqing changed from 1998-2003. STD incidence declined, as a result of various factors. The epidemiology of STDs has changed.HIV incidence has increased rapidly. This indicates that the AIDS epidemic has reached a critical period. The results of this study suggest a need for readjusting control measures and redistributing health resources.

Epidemiological Investigation and Genome Analysis of Duck Circovirus in Southern China

Duck circovirus （DuCV）, a potential immunosuppressive virus, was investigated in Southern China from March 2006 to December 2009 by using a polymerase chain reaction （PCR） based method. In this study, a total of 138 sick or dead duck samples from 18 different farms were examined with an average DuCV infection rate of-35%. It was found that ducks between the ages of 40~60 days were more susceptible to DuCV. There was no evidence showing that the DuCV virus was capable of vertical transmission. Farms with positive PCR results exhibited no regularly apparent clinical abnormalities such as feathering disorders, growth retardation or lower-than-average weight. The complete genomes of 91 strains from Fujian Province and 1 from Zhejiang Province were sequenced and analyzed. The 10 DuCV genomes, comlbared with others genomes downloaded from GenBank, ranged in size from 1988 to 1996 base pairs, with sequence identities ranging from 83.2% to 99.8%. Phylogenetic analysis based on genome sequences demonstrated that DuCVs can be divided into two distinct genetic genotypes, Group I （the Euro-USA lineage） and Group II（the Taiwan lineage）, with approximately 10.0% genetic difference between the two types. Molecular epidemiological data suggest there is no obvious difference among DuCV strains isolated from different geographic locations or different species, including Duck, Muscovy duck, Mule duck, Cheery duck, Mulard duck and Pekin duck.

Epidemiological Analysis on Reported Hepatitis C Cases in China from 2012 to 2016

Viral hepatitis is an important challenge to public health worldwide.As hepatitis B is well controlled due to vaccination,the disease burden caused by the spread of hepatitis C has become increasingly prominent.Hepatitis C is an infectious disease that is mainly blood-borne.The rate of chronicity ranges from 55% to 85% after people are infected with the hepatitis C virus （HCV）.

Epidemiological Analysis of the Coronavirus Disease Outbreak with Random Effects

Today,coronavirus appears as a serious challenge to the whole world.Epidemiological data of coronavirus is collected through media and web sources for the purpose of analysis.New data on COVID-19 are available daily,yet information about the biological aspects of SARS-CoV-2 and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 remains limited,and uncertainty remains around nearly all its parameters’values.This research provides the scientic and public health communities better resources,knowledge,and tools to improve their ability to control the infectious diseases.Using the publicly available data on the ongoing pandemic,the present study investigates the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of the COVID-19 infections.Formulation of the testing hypotheses for different countries with a 95%level of condence,and descriptive statistics have been calculated to analyze in which region will COVID-19 fall according to the tested hypothesized mean of different countries.The results will be helpful in decision making as well as in further mathematical analysis and control strategy.Statistical tools are used to investigate this pandemic,which will be useful for further research.The testing of the hypothesis is done for the differences in various effects including standard errors.Changes in states’variables are observed over time.The rapid outbreak of coronavirus can be stopped by reducing its transmission.Susceptible should maintain safe distance and follow precautionary measures regarding COVID-19 transmission.

Epidemiological Analysis of STIs in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2003

Objective： To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of sexually transmitted infections （STIs） in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2003, in order to provide scientific evidence for control and prevention efforts. Methods： STI reports and demographic data in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2003 were collected and analyzed using the National STD Computer Management Software. Results： The incidence rate of total STIs decreased.The incidence of syphilis, gonorrhea and condyloma acuminata decreased yearly from 41.71/100,000,70.13/100,000 and 83.02/100,000 in 2000 to 32.36/100,000,54.35/100,000 and 67.03/100,000 in 2003, respectively.The incidence of HIV/AIDS increased yearly.Nongonococcal urethritis （cervicitis） was the most prevalent STI. Conclusions： Incidence of STIs in Guangzhou is decreasing overall, but the incidence of HIV/AIDS is increasing and there is a change in the pattern of STI epidemics. Efforts should be made to keep the epidemic under control.

A visual modeling method for spatiotemporal and multidimensional features in epidemiological analysis:Applied COVID-19 aggregated datasets

The visual modeling method enables flexible interactions with rich graphical depictions of data and supports the exploration of the complexities of epidemiological analysis.However,most epidemiology visualizations do not support the combined analysis of objective factors that might influence the transmission situation,resulting in a lack of quantitative and qualitative evidence.To address this issue,we developed a portrait-based visual modeling method called+msRNAer.This method considers the spatiotemporal features of virus transmission patterns and multidimensional features of objective risk factors in communities,enabling portrait-based exploration and comparison in epidemiological analysis.We applied+msRNAer to aggregate COVID-19-related datasets in New South Wales,Australia,combining COVID-19 case number trends,geo-information,intervention events,and expert-supervised risk factors extracted from local government area-based censuses.We perfected the+msRNAer workflow with collaborative views and evaluated its feasibility,effectiveness,and usefulness through one user study and three subject-driven case studies.Positive feedback from experts indicates that+msRNAer provides a general understanding for analyzing comprehension that not only compares relationships between cases in time-varying and risk factors through portraits but also supports navigation in fundamental geographical,timeline,and other factor comparisons.By adopting interactions,experts discovered functional and practical implications for potential patterns of long-standing community factors regarding the vulnerability faced by the pandemic.Experts confirmed that+msRNAer is expected to deliver visual modeling benefits with spatiotemporal and multidimensional features in other epidemiological analysis scenarios.

Depression weights in patients with gastric cancer:Bibliometric analysis as a weapon to chart the future of research

Bibliometric analyses are increasing in the field of gastric cancer.This letter discusses a recently published analysis that focused on the bidirectional relationship between depression and gastric cancer and evaluated the types of papers published in this field and the changes in the direction of research.There is an increasing need for new,clinically relevant studies of this association.

Comprehensive epidemiological assessment of trauma incidents at a level I trauma center

BACKGROUND The continuous development of social and economic progress and ongoing enhancement of infrastructure construction has led to drastic changes in the occurrence of trauma.AIM To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of trauma in Lanzhou City to provide theoretical references for improving quality of trauma care.METHODS A retrospective analysis of clinical data from 16585 trauma patients treated at the First Hospital of Lanzhou University Trauma Center from November 1,2021 to October 31,2023 was conducted.Data including age,sex,time of trauma,cause of trauma,and major injured body parts were statistically analyzed.RESULTS A total of 18235 patients were admitted,with complete data for 16585 cases.Of these,9793 were male and 6792 were female(male-to-female ratio of 1.44:1).The peak times for trauma occurrence were 10 AM-12 PM and 6-10 PM,and the peak months were from May to October.The leading causes of trauma were falls(45.32%),other trauma(15.88%),road traffic accidents(15.15%),violence(10.82%),cutting/stabbing(9.41%),mechanical injuries(2.65%),winter sports injuries(0.36%),animal bites(0.22%),burns(0.09%),and electrical injuries(0.02%).The distribution of majorly injured body parts showed statistical significance,with limbs/skin being the most affected followed by the head/neck,chest/abdomen,and back.CONCLUSION Medical institutions and government agencies can implement preventive measures and policies based on the characteristics of trauma determined in this study to enhance the quality and level of trauma care.

Analysis of cancer-specific survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: A evidence-based medicine study

BACKGROUND Metastatic colorectal cancer(mCRC)is a common malignancy whose treatment has been a clinical challenge.Cancer-specific survival(CSS)plays a crucial role in assessing patient prognosis and treatment outcomes.However,there is still li-mited research on the factors affecting CSS in mCRC patients and their corre-lation.AIM To predict CSS,we developed a new nomogram model and risk grading system to classify risk levels in patients with mCRC.METHODS Data were extracted from the United States Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database from 2018 to 2023.All eligible patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort.The Cox proportional hazards model was used to investigate the independent risk factors for CSS.A new nomogram model was developed to predict CSS and was evaluated through internal and external validation.RESULTS A multivariate Cox proportional risk model was used to identify independent risk factors for CSS.Then,new CSS columns were developed based on these factors.The consistency index(C-index)of the histogram was 0.718(95%CI:0.712-0.725),and that of the validation cohort was 0.722(95%CI:0.711-0.732),indicating good discrimination ability and better performance than tumor-node-metastasis staging(C-index:0.712-0.732).For the training set,0.533,95%CI:0.525-0.540;for the verification set,0.524,95%CI:0.513-0.535.The calibration map and clinical decision curve showed good agreement and good potential clinical validity.The risk grading system divided all patients into three groups,and the Kaplan-Meier curve showed good stratification and differentiation of CSS between different groups.The median CSS times in the low-risk,medium-risk,and high-risk groups were 36 months(95%CI:34.987-37.013),18 months(95%CI:17.273-18.727),and 5 months(95%CI:4.503-5.497),respectively.CONCLUSION Our study developed a new nomogram model to predict CSS in patients with synchronous mCRC.In addition,the risk-grading system helps to accurately assess patient prognosis and guide treatment.

Research on runoff variations based on wavelet analysis and wavelet neural network model： A case study of the Heihe River drainage basin （1944-2005）

The Heihe River drainage basin is one of the endangered ecological regions of China. The shortage of water resources is the bottleneck, which constrains the sustainable development of the region. Many scholars in China have done researches concerning this problem. Based on previous researches, this paper analyzed characteristics, tendencies, and causes of annual runoff variations in the Yingluo Gorge （1944-2005） and the Zhengyi Gorge （1954-2005）, which are the boundaries of the upper reaches, the middle reaches, and the lower reaches of the Heihe River drainage basin, by wavelet analysis, wavelet neural network model, and GIS spatial analysis. The results show that： （1） annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge have principal periods of 7 years and 25 years, and its increasing rate is 1.04 m^3/s.10y; （2） annual runoff variations of the Zhengyi Gorge have principal periods of 6 years and 27 years, and its decreasing rate is 2.25 m^3/s.10y; （3） prediction results show that： during 2006-2015, annual runoff variations of the Yingluo and Zhengyi gorges have ascending tendencies, and the increasing rates are respectively 2.04 m^3/s.10y and 1.61 m^3/s.10y; （4） the increase of annual runoff in the Yingluo Gorge has causal relationship with increased temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches, and the decrease of annual runoff in the Zhengyi Gorge in the past decades was mainly caused by the increased human consumption of water resources in the middle researches. The study results will provide scientific basis for making rational use and allocation schemes of water resources in the Heihe River drainage basin.