Short-Impending Earthquake Anomaly Index Extraction of GNSS Continuous Observation Data in Yunnan,Southwestern China

This paper presents a comprehensive area expansion prediction index method to apply GNSS for short-impending prediction of earthquakes. Based on continuous GNSS observation data from Yunnan Province, a displacement field was detected after data cycle-slip repair using precision data processing software and geophysical field effect model correction. The Yunnan area was divided into 56 grid cells for displacement field interpolation to obtain a more uniform displacement field and a strain field variation time series. The pre-earthquake response of each grid-cell expansion time series was evaluated and synthesized to extract a short-impending earthquake anomaly identification index. The results show that this index indicated occurrence times and hypocenter for earthquakes of magnitude M≥5. Fourteen earthquakes were predicted accurately, and there were five false reports. This index can therefore be used for the short-impending prediction of earthquakes.

Matter-element models for comprehensive earthquake predication and their applications

Extenics was a branch of mathematics for studying the incompatible problems. In this paper, basing on calculating the associative functions of all various indexes, we have obtained the quantitative assessment results of prediction indexes by introducing this theory into the comprehensive earthquake prediction through establishing the matter-element model for comprehensive prediction, so that the incompatible problems can be solved. The preliminary results demonstrate that this method has better prospects in comprehensive earthquake prediction.

Effects of Drought on Net Primary Productivity:Roles of Temperature,Drought Intensity,and Duration

Northeast China has experienced frequent droughts over the past fifteen years. However, the effects of droughts on net primary productivity(NPP) in Northeast China remain unclear. In this paper, the droughts that occurred in Northeast China between 1999 and 2013 were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI). The NPP standardized anomaly index(NPP-SAI) was used to evaluate NPP anomalies. The years of 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2007 were further investigated in order to explore the influence of droughts on NPP at different time scales(3, 6, and 12 months). Based on the NPP-SAI of normal areas, we found droughts overall decreased NPP by 112.06 Tg C between 1999 and 2013. Lower temperatures at the beginning of the growing season could cause declines in NPP by shortening the length of the growing season. Mild drought or short-term drought with higher temperatures might increase NPP, and weak intensity droughts intensified the lag effects of droughts on NPP.

Assessing human sperm morphology： top models, underdogs or biometrics？

The assessment of the percentage of spermatozoa having an ＇ideal＇ morphology using so-called strict method is the method recommended in the latest edition of the World Health Organization （WHO） laboratory manual for semen analysis. This recommendation is a result of the statistical association between ＇ideal＇ sperm morphology and fertility, and of the current general belief that sperm morphology assessment should be used primarily as a fertility tool. The notion of an ＇ideal＇ sperm morphology has persisted despite the very low percentage of such spermatozoa in the semen of fertile men, a subject of intense controversy. The detailed categorization of each abnormal spermatozoon has thus, for a long time, been considered optional and partially redundant, an idea which is reflected in the earlier editions of the WHO manual. However, several recent studies have shown the importance of carefully assessing abnormal sperm morphology for use in the diagnosis ＆infertility, to determine fertility prognosis, and for basic or public health studies. One approach, which combines videomicroscopy and computer vision, and is the only approach able to assess the continuum of sperm biometrics, has been used successfully in several recent clinical, basic and toxicology studies. In summary, the visual assessment of detailed sperm morphology--including the categorization of anomalies allowing arithmetically derived indices of teratozoospermia--and the more modern computer-based approaches, although often considered to be redundant, are in fact complementary. The choice of the most appropriate method depends on the field of investigation （clinical, research, toxicology） and the problem being addressed. Each approach has advantages as well as certain limitations, which will be discussed briefly herein.

Long Term Spatio-temporal Variations of Seasonal and Decadal Aridity in India

A comprehensive analysis of climate data(1958-2018)is carried out at the national scale in India to assess spatiotemporal variation in aridity.The aridity is analyzed using UNEP(United Nations Environment Programme)Aridity Index(AI),which is the ratio between Precipitation(P)and Potential Evapotranspiration(PET).Freely available Terra-Climate database,P and PET variables,offered an unprecedented opportunity for monitoring variations in AI and aridity index anomalies(AIA)at inter-seasonal and inter-decadal basis.The study also assesses longer term patterns of P and AI anomalies with vegetation anomalies.The results indicate that significant clustered areas with maximum dryness are located at west-central part of India,the state of Maharashtra.Overall,there is a gradual increase in the extent of arid zone during 60-year period and spatially maximum extent of percentage change in aridity area is observed.The change patterns of AI in India are largely driven by the changing patterns of precipitation.The maximum impact of decline in precipitation on AIA was observed during Kharif season frequently,for every 4-5 years during 1972-1992.The pattern repeated in the last few recent years(2013-2018),the decline in precipitation resulted increased aridity.The study also reveals that the availability and usage of irrigation sources have increased from 2014 to 2018.Thus,despite of less precipitation positive vegetation has been resulted in this period.The findings are important to understand the impacts of climate change on land use pattern,and land and water resource management.

Detecting Effects of the Recent Drought on Vegetation in Southwestern China

The severest drought on record occurred in southwestern China from September 2009 until March 2010. In order to measure the impact the drought imposed on vegetation, we developed an evaluation indicator called the Vegetation Index Anomaly （VIA） based on MODIS/EVI. The tempo- spatial pattern of this impact was analyzed. Given that this impact may be modulated by many factors, the responses of different vegetation types （woodland, grassland and cropland）, and the spatial pattern of meteorological drought were also analyzed. Results show that more than 50% of vegetation suffered because of this drought event, but there was significant tempo-spatial variability in the range and intensity of impact. This variability may be caused by many factors. Of the three major vegetation types, cropland was the most sensitive to drought, followed by grassland and then woodland. In addition, meteorological factors （precipitation and air temperature） also played a role; however, obvious differences exist between the spatial distribution pattern of drought-stricken vegetation and that of meteorological drought, which further demonstrates the intervention of other factors besides meteorological factors. So compared to meteorological drought, the vegetation index may be more useful for measuring the actual intensity, duration and impact of drought events. The limitations of vegetation indices are also considered.