This paper investigates an improved SIR model for COVID-19 based on the Caputo fractional derivative. Firstly, the properties of the model are studied, including the feasible domain and bounded solutions of the system...This paper investigates an improved SIR model for COVID-19 based on the Caputo fractional derivative. Firstly, the properties of the model are studied, including the feasible domain and bounded solutions of the system. Secondly, the stability of the system is discussed, among other things. Then, the GMMP method is introduced to obtain numerical solutions for the COVID-19 system. Numerical simulations were conducted using MATLAB, and the results indicate that our model is valuable for studying virus transmission.展开更多
Although Markov chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） algorithms are accurate, many factors may cause instability when they are utilized in reliability analysis; such instability makes these algorithms unsuitable for widespread e...Although Markov chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） algorithms are accurate, many factors may cause instability when they are utilized in reliability analysis; such instability makes these algorithms unsuitable for widespread engineering applications. Thus, a reliability modeling and assessment solution aimed at small-sample data of numerical control（NC） machine tools is proposed on the basis of Bayes theories. An expert-judgment process of fusing multi-source prior information is developed to obtain the Weibull parameters＇ prior distributions and reduce the subjective bias of usual expert-judgment methods. The grid approximation method is applied to two-parameter Weibull distribution to derive the formulas for the parameters＇ posterior distributions and solve the calculation difficulty of high-dimensional integration. The method is then applied to the real data of a type of NC machine tool to implement a reliability assessment and obtain the mean time between failures（MTBF）. The relative error of the proposed method is 5.8020×10-4 compared with the MTBF obtained by the MCMC algorithm. This result indicates that the proposed method is as accurate as MCMC. The newly developed solution for reliability modeling and assessment of NC machine tools under small-sample data is easy, practical, and highly suitable for widespread application in the engineering field; in addition, the solution does not reduce accuracy.展开更多
文摘This paper investigates an improved SIR model for COVID-19 based on the Caputo fractional derivative. Firstly, the properties of the model are studied, including the feasible domain and bounded solutions of the system. Secondly, the stability of the system is discussed, among other things. Then, the GMMP method is introduced to obtain numerical solutions for the COVID-19 system. Numerical simulations were conducted using MATLAB, and the results indicate that our model is valuable for studying virus transmission.
基金Supported by Research on Reliability Assessment and Test Methods of Heavy Machine Tools,China(State Key Science&Technology Project High-grade NC Machine Tools and Basic Manufacturing Equipment,Grant No.2014ZX04014-011)Reliability Modeling of Machining Centers Considering the Cutting Loads,China(Science&Technology Development Plan for Jilin Province,Grant No.3D513S292414)Graduate Innovation Fund of Jilin University,China(Grant No.2014053)
文摘Although Markov chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） algorithms are accurate, many factors may cause instability when they are utilized in reliability analysis; such instability makes these algorithms unsuitable for widespread engineering applications. Thus, a reliability modeling and assessment solution aimed at small-sample data of numerical control（NC） machine tools is proposed on the basis of Bayes theories. An expert-judgment process of fusing multi-source prior information is developed to obtain the Weibull parameters＇ prior distributions and reduce the subjective bias of usual expert-judgment methods. The grid approximation method is applied to two-parameter Weibull distribution to derive the formulas for the parameters＇ posterior distributions and solve the calculation difficulty of high-dimensional integration. The method is then applied to the real data of a type of NC machine tool to implement a reliability assessment and obtain the mean time between failures（MTBF）. The relative error of the proposed method is 5.8020×10-4 compared with the MTBF obtained by the MCMC algorithm. This result indicates that the proposed method is as accurate as MCMC. The newly developed solution for reliability modeling and assessment of NC machine tools under small-sample data is easy, practical, and highly suitable for widespread application in the engineering field; in addition, the solution does not reduce accuracy.
