To explore the distribution of food demand and the projected trend in future food demand in China, this paper analyzed the change in current(1998–2012) percapita demand for grain, grain-consuming and herbivorous live...To explore the distribution of food demand and the projected trend in future food demand in China, this paper analyzed the change in current(1998–2012) percapita demand for grain, grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products, and predicted the food demand in 2020 The results indicated that in 1998–2012, the national percapita consumption of grain ration declined by about36.66%, and the per-capita consumption of grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products increased by about 48% and 34.09%, respectively. The grain-consuming livestock products have become the primary source of both calories and protein for consumers. The proportion of herbivorous livestock products in consumer diets has increased steadily and there has been huge potential in substituting beef and mutton for pork in this dynamic market. The demand for food in different regions of China is highly variable, which is important for planning grassland agriculture development and ensuring food safety. The demand for grain, and grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products will increase by about3.3%, 20% and 14% respectively by 2020. Based on the food demand and trend in the development of grassland agriculture, the 31 regions in China are divided into three priority groups for grassland agriculture development.展开更多
基金supported by the key project "Study of the Dynamic Market Equilibrium in Substituting Beef and Mutton for Pork" by the State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agroecosystems (SKLGAE201502)Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University (IRT13019)
文摘To explore the distribution of food demand and the projected trend in future food demand in China, this paper analyzed the change in current(1998–2012) percapita demand for grain, grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products, and predicted the food demand in 2020 The results indicated that in 1998–2012, the national percapita consumption of grain ration declined by about36.66%, and the per-capita consumption of grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products increased by about 48% and 34.09%, respectively. The grain-consuming livestock products have become the primary source of both calories and protein for consumers. The proportion of herbivorous livestock products in consumer diets has increased steadily and there has been huge potential in substituting beef and mutton for pork in this dynamic market. The demand for food in different regions of China is highly variable, which is important for planning grassland agriculture development and ensuring food safety. The demand for grain, and grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products will increase by about3.3%, 20% and 14% respectively by 2020. Based on the food demand and trend in the development of grassland agriculture, the 31 regions in China are divided into three priority groups for grassland agriculture development.
