Urban growth scenario projection using heuristic cellular automata in arid areas considering the drought impact

Arid areas with low precipitation and sparse vegetation typically yield compact urban pattern,and drought directly impacts urban site selection,growth processes,and future scenarios.Spatial simulation and projection based on cellular automata(CA)models is important to achieve sustainable urban development in arid areas.We developed a new CA model using bat algorithm(BA)named bat algorithm-probability-of-occurrence-cellular automata(BA-POO-CA)model by considering drought constraint to accurately delineate urban growth patterns and project future scenarios of Urumqi City and its surrounding areas,located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.We calibrated the BA-POO-CA model for the drought-prone study area with 2000 and 2010 data and validated the model with 2010 and 2020 data,and finally projected its urban scenarios in 2030.The results showed that BA-POO-CA model yielded overall accuracy of 97.70%and figure-of-merits(FOMs)of 35.50%in 2010,and 97.70%and 26.70%in 2020,respectively.The inclusion of drought intensity factor improved the performance of BA-POO-CA model in terms of FOMs,with increases of 5.50%in 2010 and 7.90%in 2020 than the model excluding drought intensity factor.This suggested that the urban growth of Urumqi City was affected by drought,and therefore taking drought intensity factor into account would contribute to simulation accuracy.The BA-POO-CA model including drought intensity factor was used to project two possible scenarios(i.e.,business-as-usual(BAU)scenario and ecological scenario)in 2030.In the BAU scenario,the urban growth dominated mainly in urban fringe areas,especially in the northern part of Toutunhe District,Xinshi District,and Midong District.Using exceptional and extreme drought areas as a spatial constraint,the urban growth was mainly concentrated in the"main urban areas-Changji-Hutubi"corridor urban pattern in the ecological scenario.The results of this research can help to adjust urban planning and development policies.Our model is readily applicable to simulating urban growth and future scenarios in global arid areas such as Northwest China and Africa.

Dry/wet climate zoning and delimitation of arid areas of Northwest China based on a data-driven fashion

The division of arid areas is important in water and land resources management, planning and for a long-term agricultural, economic and social planning. Northwest China （NW） dominates the main arid areas in China. There is thus a need to adopt adequate concepts relative to the scope of arid areas of NW China and identify its climate types and characteristics. In this study, we analyzed climatic data over the last 30 years （1981-2010） from 191 stations in three provinces and three autonomous regions of NW China. The factor-cluster analysis technique （FC）, an objective and automated method was employed to classify the dry/wet climate zones. The traditional methods with predefined thresholds were adopted for providing a comparison with FC. The results showed that the wet/dry climate zones by FC were mainly distributed along mountains, rivers and desert borders. Climate-division boundaries relied heavily on the major terrain features surrounding the grouped stations. It also showed that the climate was dry in the plain sandy areas but relatively wet in the high mountain areas. FC method can reflect the climate characteristics more fully in NW China with varied and complicated topography, and outperform the tradi- tional climate classifications. Arid areas of NW China were defined as four climate types, including five resultant classes in FC classifications. The Qinling and Da Hinggan Mountains were two important boundaries, besides main administrative boundaries. The results also indicated that there are some differences between two traditional clas- sifications. The precipitation moved and fluctuated to an extent, which confirmed that climate change played an important role in the dry/wet climate zoning, and the boundaries of dry/wet climate zones might change and migrate with time. This paper is expected to provide a more in-depth understanding on the climate characteristics in arid areas of NW China, and then contribute to formulate reasonable water and land management planning and agri- cultural production programs.

Land-Air Interaction over Arid/Semi-arid Areas in China and Its Impact on the East Asian Summer Monsoon. Part I:Calibration of the Land Surface Model (BATS)Using Multicriteria Methods

To improve the land surface simulation in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China, the observational data from two field experiments in Dunhuang and Tongyu are used to optimize the parameters in the land surface model, BATS, through calibration with the multicriteria method. Sensitivity analysis to the parameters in Dunhuang and Tongyu indicates that different parameters need to be calibrated in two sites with different environmental and climate regimes. Comparison of observed sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and ground surface temperature with the simulated ones shows the simulations with the optimized parameters have been substantially improved. Especially, the holistic simulations with the calibration of the parameter values are much closer to the observations in the arid region （Dunhuang）, and the energy partition with the calibrated parameters can also be simulated well in the semi-arid region （Tongyu）. Whole results demonstrate that the parameter calibration of the land surface model is important when the model is to be used to investigate the land-air interaction.

Properties of Solar Radiation over Chinese Arid and Semi-Arid Areas

Climatic characteristics of broadband solarradiation (Rs) in Chinese arid and semi-arid areas are reported in this study. The annual average daily Rs in thearid and semi-arid areas is 16.3 ± 5.77 and 15.3 ± 5.16 MJm-2 d-1, respectively. The highest value (17.2 ± 5.84 MJm-2 d-1) appears in an arid area at Linze. The lowest valueappears in the semi-arid area of Ansai. Pronounced seasonal variation of Rs is observed with the highest value insummer and the lowest in winter. The clearness indexshowed similar seasonal pattern at most sites, with theminimum observed in the summer and the highest valuesin winter at both arid and semi-arid areas. The seasonalvariation of the ratio of Rs to its extraterrestrial value Kt inthe arid area is more significant than that observed in thesemi-arid region, and it is caused by the different range ofvariation of water vapor between arid and semi-arid areasThe seasonal fluctuations in Rs and Kt are mainly controlled by the water vapor content in these areas. Theaerosol particles have significant influence on Rs and Kt atstations with higher aerosol burden.

Progress, problems and prospects of palynology in reconstructing environmental change in inland arid areas of Asia

Studying the climatic and environmental changes on different time scales in inland arid regions of Asia can greatly im‐prove our understanding of climatic influences for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the context of global change. Pollen, as a remnant of seed plants, is sensitive to environmental factors including precipitation, temperature and altitude, and is a clas‐sic proxy in environmental reconstruction. In the last two decades, great progress in the application of palynology to in‐land areas of Asia has highlighted the role of palynology in paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental research. The main progress is as follows. (1) On the tectonic time scale of the late Cenozoic, the palaeoclimatological sequence has been es‐tablished on the basis of pollen percentage, concentration and taxon. Pollen data have revealed a continuous enhancement of drought in the inland arid region of Asia, in contrast to evidence acquired based on other proxies. (2) In the late Quater‐nary, an increase in herbaceous plants further supports the intensification of drought associated with global cooling. In more detail, the palynological record shows a glacial-interglacial pattern consistent with changes in global ice volume. (3) The Holocene pollen record has been established at a high resolution and across a wide range of inland areas. In general, it presents an arid grassland environment in the early Holocene, followed by the development of woody plants in the mid- to late-Holocene climate optimum. This pattern is related to moisture changes in areas dominated by the westerlies. There are also significant regional differences in the pattern and amplitude of vegetation response to the Holocene environment. (4) Modern pollen studies based on vegetation surveys, meteorological data and statistics show that topsoil palynology can better reflect regional vegetation types (e. g., grassland, meadow, desert). Drier climates yield higher pollen contents of drought-tolerant plants such as Chenopodioideae, Ephedra, and Nitriaria, while contents of Artemisia and Poaceae are greater under humid climates. Besides these achievements, problems remain in palynological research: for example, pol‐len extraction, identification, interpretation, and quantitative reconstruction. In the future, we encourage strengthened inter‐disciplinary cooperation to improve experimental methods and innovation. Firstly, we should strengthen palynological classification and improve the skill of identification;secondly, laboratory experiments are needed to better constrain pol‐len transport dynamics in water and air;thirdly, more rigorous mathematical principles will improve the reliability of re‐constructions and deepen the knowledge of plant geography;and finally, new areas and methods in palynology should be explored, for example DNA, UV-B and isotopic analysis. It is expected that palynology will continue to develop, and we hope it will continue to play an important role in the study of past climatic and environmental changes.

Rainwater harvesting systems: An urban flood risk mitigation measure in arid areas

Rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems have been developed to compensate for shortage in the water supply worldwide. Such systems are not very common in arid areas, particularly in the Gulf Region, due to the scarcity of rainfall and their reduced efficiency in covering water demand and reducing water consumption rates. In spite of this, RWH systems have the potential to reduce urban flood risks, particularly in densely populated areas. This study aimed to assess the potential use of RWH systems as urban flood mitigation measures in arid areas. Their utility in the retention of stormwater runoff and the reduction of water depth and extent were evaluated. The study was conducted in a residential area in Bahrain that experienced waterlogging after heavy rainfall events. The water demand patterns of housing units were analyzed, and the daily water balance for RWH tanks was evaluated. The effect of the implementation of RWH systems on the flood volume was evaluated with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Flood simulations were conducted in several rainfall scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. The results showed significant reductions in the flood depth and flood extent, but these effects were highly dependent on the rainfall intensity of the event. RWH systems are effective flood mitigation measures, particularly in urban arid regions short of proper stormwater control infrastructure, and they enhance the resilience of the built environment to urban floods.

The Source of Groundwater Recharge Based on Entropy Theory in the Arid Areas of North China

Objective Any natural system is constantly exchanging material, energy and information with the environment, and all tkese processes follow the basic law of thermodynamics, with no exception of groundwater recharge and discharge process. On the basis of the principle of the first law of thermodynamics, the reverse geochemical simulation method is widely used in the study of groundwater recharge, runoff and drainage process. However, some studies only consider the material conservation in theprocess, but ignore the probability of the transformation.

Potential reduction in water consumption of greenhouse evaporative coolers in arid areas via earth-tube heat exchangers

This study aimed to explore the potential of developing a novel cooling system combining a greenhouse and an earth-tube heat exchanger(ETHE).In this system,greenhouse air is circulated through the underneath soil mass to use the deep-soil cooling effect.This was achieved through the following steps.First,soil temperature profile inside and outside the cultivated greenhouse was monitored for almost one year to study the possibility of using deep-soil coldness for cooling the greenhouse air.Second,a prototype ETHE was built to practically investigate the potential reduction in air temperature as the air flows inside the deep earth pipes.Third,a prototype greenhouse was erected to study the ETHE concept.Results from the first experiment revealed that soil temperature at a soil depth of 2.5 m inside the greenhouse offers good conditions to bury the ETHE.The soil temperature at this soil depth was below the maximum temperature(32℃)that most greenhouse crops can withstand.Results from the prototype ETHE showed a slight reduction in air temperature as it passed through the pipes.From the prototype of the integrated greenhouse and ETHE system,reduction in air temperature was observed as the air passed through the ETHE pipes.At night,the air was heated up across the ETHE pipes,indicating that the ETHE was working as a heater.We concluded from this study that greenhouses in arid climates can be cooled using the ETHE concept which would save a large amount of water that would otherwise be consumed in the evaporative coolers.Further investigations are highly encouraged.

Application of Self-pressure Sprinkler Irrigation Technology to Grassland Vegetation Restoration in Alpine Arid Areas

To study the application of self-pressure sprinkler irrigation technology to vegetation restoration of grassland in alpine arid areas,three treatments including fenced grassland(FG),fencedirrigated grassland(FA),and free grazing grassland(CK) were compared in respect of primary productivity.The results showed that the community coverage of FA was only 35.96% higher than that of FG and 152.69% higher than that of CK;the plant height of FA was only 76.71% higher than that of FG and 155.77% higher than that of CK;the productivity of the community in FA was only 24.10% higher than that of FG and 110.00% higher than that of CK.It indicates that the self-pressure sprinkler irrigation technology has certain demonstration and promotion potential in vegetation restoration of grassland in alpine regions and can provide a new way for the sustainable development of grassland animal husbandry in Tibet.

Remote Sensing Parameterization of Land Surface Heat Fluxes over Arid and Semi-arid Areas

Dealing with the regional land surfaces heat fluxes over inhomogeneous land surfaces in arid and semi-arid areas is an important but not an easy issue. In this study, one parameterization method based on satellite remote sensing and field observations is proposed and tested for deriving the regional land surface heat fluxes over inhomogeneous landscapes. As a case study, the method is applied to the Dunhuang experimental area and the HEIFE (Heihe River Field Experiment, 1988-1994) area. The Dunhuang area is selected as a basic experimental area for the Chinese National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences: Research on the Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Climate Disaster in China (G1998040900, 1999-2003). The four scenes of Landsat TM data used in this study are 3 June 2000, 22 August 2000, and 29 January 2001 for the Dunhuang area and 9 July 1991 for the HEIFE area. The regional distributions of land surface variables, vegetation variables, and heat fluxes over inhomogeneous landscapes in arid and semi-arid areas are obtained in this study.

The Effect of Polyvinyl Acetate Polymer on Reducing Dust in Arid and Semiarid Areas

Because the large areas of Iran are on arid and semiarid belt of the world, it has many problems due to windstorms. Wind storms cause dust and haze due to a mass of fine sand or silt soil elevated in the atmosphere. It makes heart disease-cardiovascular and respiratory and so is detrimental for the children. These have plagued the residents and so lives of them are disrupted every so often. In this research, the subject soil stabilization using adherence of poly vinyl acetate polymer as a way to reduce the production of dust is defined for prone area. In this paper, the effect of poly vinyl acetate polymer on silt soil has been studied. In this study the samples were uncompacted particles of soil with different amount of water-solvated polymer (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 grams per meter squared) poured over them. These samples are kept in experimental environment for 7 days. After ensuring complete dryness, their stabilities are tested against wind flow with 20 m/s speed. Results showed that adding more polymers to soil would considerably increase its particles’ stabilities. This stability is due to positive reaction of polymer with soil particles. The effect of this stability is maintained during sample drying time in the lab and the soil maintains its characteristics during testing. The best results are obtained for 20 grams polymer per meter squared, where caused an increase in stability to about 15 times that of the soil without polymer.

LAND DEGRADATION AND ITS MANAGEMENT IN THE ARID AND SEMI ARID AREAS OF CHINA

hina is a large country with varied physical environments. Some of them are quite fragile and susceptible to land degradation, such as the arid and semiarid areas, as well as the slopeland of extensive mountain and hilly areas. Therefore, human actions play a significant role in desertification processes. It was estimated that there are 3,327,000 km 2 of desertified areas in China, in which 1,533,000 km 2 are desert, gobi and sandy desertified areas. Most of them are in arid, semiarid and dry sub humid areas in northern China. Soil salinization is another kind of land desertification. It was estimated that about one fifth of the 66,700 km 2 of farmlands have been affected by soil salinization to certain extent. Grassland degradation is also serious in China. The main problems are the reduction of bio mass, decline of preferred species and soil erosion induced by overgrazing. In Inner Mongolia the area of degraded grasslands occupies 43.8 percent of the total available area of the grasslands. The productivity of grasslands in Tibet has decreased by 20 - 50 percent [21]. Soil and water erosion is more serious in China. Based on remote sensing general survey initiated by Ministry of Water Resources in 1992, the total soil eroded area is 3,670,000 km 2, occupying 38.2 percent of the total territorial area, in which 1,790,000 km 2 is water eroded area and 1,880,000 km 2 is wind eroded area.

A data envelopment analysis of agricultural technical efficiency of Northwest Arid Areas in China

Severe resource shortage and waste of resource in agricultural production make it necessary to assess efficiency to increase productivity with high efficiency and ensure sustainable agricultural development. This paper adopted an input-oriented data envelopment analysis(DEA) method with the assumption of variable returns to scale to evaluate agricultural production efficiency of 100 major irrigation districts in Northwest China in 2010.Major findings of this paper were as follows: firstly, the average value of total technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of those irrigation districts in Northwest China were 0.770, 0.825 and 0.931,respectively; secondly, 30% of irrigation districts were technically efficient, while 42% and 32% of them showed pure technical and scale efficiency respectively. Among inefficient decision-making units, total technical efficiency score varied from 0.313 to 0.966, showing significant geographical differences, but geographical differences of pure technical efficiency was more consistent with that of total technical efficiency; thirdly, input redundancy was evident. Inputs of agricultural population, irrigation area,green water, blue water, consumption of fertilizer and agricultural machinery could be reduced by 34.88%,40.19%, 43.85%, 47.10%, 41.53% and 42.21% respectively without reducing agricultural outputs. Furthermore,irrigation area, green water and blue water had relatively high slack movement though Northwest China which is short of water resources. Based on these results, this paper drew the following conclusions: First, there is huge potential for Northwest China to improve its agricultural production efficiency, and agro-technology not input scale had greater influence on improvement. Second, farmers needed proper guidance in order to reduce agricultural inputs and it is time to centralize agricultural management for overall agricultural inputs regulation and control.

Nebkha （coppice dune） formation and significance to environmental change reconstructions in arid and semiarid areas

Environments in arid and semiarid regions are extremely sensitive to climate changes. High wind activity in these regions has resulted in an extensively developed arid geomorphology, but past environmental changes are poorly understood because of the absence of relatively high-resolution proxies. The accumulation characteristics of nebkhas, which have developed extensively in these regions, can be used as a method of reconstructing environmental changes. Here we summarized recent advances in research on the formation, development, and sediment characteristics of nebkhas and their significance to environmental changes in arid and semiarid regions. Based on the studies of our colleagues, we suggested that research on nebkha formation can provide distinct clues about environmental changes in arid and semiarid regions; however, continued studies are needed.

China Steps Up Anti-poverty Effort in Arid Western Areas

China＇s State Council, or the cabinet, has decided to further extend a program that involves special funds for infrastructure and other projects in three particularly add and poor areas in the country＇s remote northwest. While extending the program from 2009 to 2015, the government also decided to raise the annual total funding from 200 million yuan （29.2 million U.S. dollars） to 300 million yuan.

Effects of Enhanced Ultraviolet Radiation-B on Maize in Arid Regions of Middle-high Elevation

[Objective] The experiment aimed to explore the influence of enhanced ultraviolet radiation-B on maize in arid regions of middle-high elevation for correct assessing the influence of enhanced ultraviolet radiation-B on maize and providing scientific reference to make proper countermeasures. [ Method] The location test in field and lift lamp of UV-B were used to observe the changes of maize height, leaf area and number of green leaves under influences of different UV-B radiation. [ Result] In arid regions of middle-high elevation, enhanced ultraviolet radiation-B could dwarf maize plant, decrease leaf area, decline number of green leaves and yield. The reason of decreasing leaf area was that enhanced ultraviolet radiation-B shortened leaf length and leaf width while the reason of declining yield was that yield components were all negatively influ- enced and with the increase of ultraviolet radiation-B, the yield declined dramatically. [ Concluslonl The result of this experiment would be good for maize production in arid regions of middle-high elevation.

Research on the extension of Tamarix shrubs resulted from devel-opment projects in arid area

Tamarix plant is widely distributed in the arid areas of China for its great tolerance of draught, salt and alkali and attracts more attention by its strong capacity in windbreak and sand-fixations. “Tamarix dunes” constitute special desert bio-landscape in arid area. During last several decades,Tamarix shrubs declined and “Tamarix dunes” were also severely destroyed due to the land exploitation and serious deforestation, etc. From the 1980s until now, the extending phenomenon ofTamarix shrubs caused by developmental projects such as building highway, railway was studied in the western dry area of China, including western section of Hexi Corridor of Gansu, railroads and highways around the two greatest basin in Xinjiang and interior regions in Gurbantonggut desert, through on-the-spot survey along the transportation lines and setting up sampling plots along the roads. It was found that large quantities ofTamarix plants grow in the catchment area of low-lying lands that were formed by bulldozer operation during road building period. The extension ofTamarix shrubs caused by engineering was similar to that of the other section of the area to some extent, but went beyond the original distribution. This extension is beneficial to the ecological restoration and re-vegetation of western region of China and plays an important role in control of the sandstorms and improvement of ecological environments. As a result, it is necessary to make a further study on the extending phenomenon ofTamarix shrubs and to seek approach to promote wider extension ofTamarix shrubs in suitable habitats. Key words Arid area - Tamarix - Development engineering - Vegetation extension CLC number S718.541 Document code A Article ID 1007-662X(2004)01-0045-04 Foundation Item: This study is supported by key projects of National Natural Science Foundation (39730100), National Foundation (30070640) and part of Project 973(G19990435).Biography: Huang Pei-You (1936-), Male, Professor in College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046Responsible editor: Chai Ruihai

Spatio-temporal pattern and changes of evapotranspiration in arid Central Asia and Xinjiang of China

Accurate inversion of land surface evapotranspiration （ET） in arid areas is of great significance for understanding global eco-hydrological process and exploring the spatio-temporal variation and ecological response of water resources. It is also important in the functional evaluation of regional water cycle and water balance, as well as the rational allocation and management of water resources. This study, based on model validation analysis at varied scales in fiwe Central Asian countries and China＇s Xinjiang, developed an appropriate approach for ET inversion in arid lands. The actual ET during growing seasons of the study area was defined, and the changes in water participating in evaporation in regional water cycle were then educed. The results show the simulation error of SEBS （Surface Energy Balance System） model under cloud amount consideration was 1.34% at 30-m spatial scale, 2.75% at 1-km spatial scale and 6,37% at 4-kin spatial scale. ET inversion for 1980-2007 applying SEBS model in the study area indicates： （1） the evaporation depth （May-September） by land types descends in the order of waters （660.24 ram） 〉 cultivated land （464.66 mm） 〉 woodland （388.44 mm） 〉 urbanized land （168.16 mm） 〉 grassland （160.48 mm） 〉 unused land （83.08 mm）; and （2） ET during the 2005 growing season in Xinjiang and Central Asia was 2,168.68x108 m3 （with an evaporation/precipitation ratio of 1.05） and 9,741.03x108 m3 （with an evaporation/precipitation ratio of 1.4）, respectively. The results unveiled the spatio-temporal variation rules of ET process in arid areas, providing a reference for further research on the water cycle and water balance in similar arid regions.

Characterizing the spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration and aridity index in mid-western China from 2001 to 2016

Mid-western China is one of the most sensitive and fragile areas on the Earth.Evapotranspiration(ET)is a key part of hydrological cycle in these areas and is affected by both global climate change and human activities.The dynamic changes in ET and potential evapotranspiration(PET),which can reflect water consumption and demand,are still unclear,and there is a lack of predictive capacity on drought severity.In this study,we used global MODIS(moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer)terrestrial ET(MOD16)products,Morlet wavelet analysis,and simple linear regression to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of ET,PET,reference ET(ET0),and aridity index(AI)in mid-western pastoral regions of China(including Gansu Province,Qinghai Province,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,and part of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region)from 2001 to 2016.The results showed that the overall ET gradually increased from east to southwest in the study area.Actual ET showed an increasing trend,whereas PET tended to decrease from 2001 to 2016.The change in ET was affected by vegetation types.During the study period,the average annual ET0 and AI tended to decrease.At the monthly scale within a year,AI value decreased from January to July and then increased.The interannual variations of ET0 and AI showed periodicity with a main period of 14 a,and two other periodicities of 11 and 5 a.This study showed that in recent years,drought in these pastoral regions of mid-western China has been alleviated.Therefore,it is foreseeable that the demand for irrigation water for agricultural production in these regions will decrease.