The interdecadal variability of the East Asia summer monsoon during 1951~1999 is analyzed by using two different East Asia monsoon indices. The results agree on the point that the East Asia monsoon has undergone an i...The interdecadal variability of the East Asia summer monsoon during 1951~1999 is analyzed by using two different East Asia monsoon indices. The results agree on the point that the East Asia monsoon has undergone an interdecadal variability in the mid-1970s. The intensity of the East Asia monsoon is weaker after this transition. Moreover the intensity and location of subtropical high that is an important component in East Asia monsoon system also shows interdecadal variation obviously. It is the interdecadal variation in atmospheric circulation that causes the drought over North China and flooding along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River after the mid-1970s.展开更多
The interdecadal factors affecting the summer monsoon winds over Somalia and the South China Sea were studied. Global geopotential heights and wind velocity fields of the 850-hPa and 200-hPa pressure levels, as well a...The interdecadal factors affecting the summer monsoon winds over Somalia and the South China Sea were studied. Global geopotential heights and wind velocity fields of the 850-hPa and 200-hPa pressure levels, as well as sea surface temperature anomaly data and correlation coefficients were analyzed. The monsoons over Somalia and the South China Sea were found to be two different monsoon systems, operating on different mechanisms and being affected by different oceanatmosphere interactions. The intensity of the Asian subtropical summer monsoon is influenced by the intensity of the summer monsoon over Somalia in the month of June and by the intensity of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea in the months of June and July. The summer monsoon wind strength over Somalia is affected by regional factors, such as the heating of the Tibetan plateau, and by global mechanisms, such as the subtropical heat exchange with Antarctica. The summer monsoon over the South China Sea is affected by different ocean-atmosphere interactions. The Somalia and subtropical summer monsoons have wind blowing down the pressure gradient from area over ocean to that over land, like typical summer monsoons. The South China Sea summer monsoon has winds that blow down the pressure gradient from area over land to that over ocean. The South China Sea summer monsoon is affected by the Kuroshio Current off the east coast of Japan.展开更多
Representation of cloud microphysical processes is one of the key aspects of numerical models.An improved double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme(named IMY)was created based on the standard Milbrandt-Yau(MY)schem...Representation of cloud microphysical processes is one of the key aspects of numerical models.An improved double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme(named IMY)was created based on the standard Milbrandt-Yau(MY)scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for the East Asian monsoon region(EAMR).In the IMY scheme,the shape parameters of raindrops,snow particles,and cloud droplet size distributions are variables instead of fixed constants.Specifically,the shape parameters of raindrop and snow size distributions are diagnosed from their respective shape-slope relationships.The shape parameter for the cloud droplet size distribution depends on the total cloud droplet number concentration.In addition,a series of minor improvements involving detailed cloud processes have also been incorporated.The improved scheme was coupled into the WRF model and tested on two heavy rainfall cases over the EAMR.The IMY scheme is shown to reproduce the overall spatial distribution of rainfall and its temporal evolution,evidenced by comparing the modeled results with surface gauge observations.The simulations also successfully capture the cloud features by using satellite and ground-based radar observations as a reference.The IMY has yielded simulation results on the case studies that were comparable,and in ways superior to MY,indicating that the improved scheme shows promise.Although the simulations demonstrated a positive performance evaluation for the IMY scheme,continued experiments are required to further validate the scheme with different weather events.展开更多
Based on the 1961-2010 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, this work uses empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and composite analysis to study the distributions of zonal land-sea thermal contrast between Asia and the Pacific during t...Based on the 1961-2010 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, this work uses empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and composite analysis to study the distributions of zonal land-sea thermal contrast between Asia and the Pacific during transitions from the summer monsoon to the winter monsoon in East Asian subtropics, and investigates the interannual variations of the thermal contrast and their relationships with circulation systems over the East Asian subtropics. The findings are as follows. 1) In autumn, the interannual variations of the temperature deviation in the middle and upper troposphere show significant east-west out-of-phase teleconnection over Asia and the central and eastern Pacific, i.e. the Asian-Pacific Oscillation, or APO. 2) While not as significant as in summer with regard to coverage and intensity, the APO shows interannual variations in autumn that well depicts the change in the intensity of the subtropical monsoon. In the high(low) APO year, the current subtropical summer monsoon is strong(weak) and the winter monsoon is weak(strong) in East Asia as derived from the general circulation and wind field of the East Asian-Pacific region.展开更多
The performance of spectral nudging in an investigation of the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon was assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by 1-degree NCEP Global Final Analysis (FNL). Tw...The performance of spectral nudging in an investigation of the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon was assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by 1-degree NCEP Global Final Analysis (FNL). Two pairs of experiments were made, spectral nudging (SP) and non-spectral nudging (NOSP), with five members in each group. The members were distinguished by different initial times, and the analysis was based on the ensemble mean of the two simulation pairs. The SP was able to constrain error growth in large-scale circulation in upper-level, during simulation, and generate realistic regional scale patterns. The main focus was the model ability to simulate precipitation. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product was used for precipitation verification. Mean precipitation magnitude was generally overestimated by WRF. Nevertheless, SP simulations suppressed overestimation relative to the NOSP experiments. Compared to TRMM, SP also improved model simulation of precipitation in spatial and temporal distributions, with the ability to reproduce movement of rainbands. However, extreme precipitation events were suppressed in the SP simulations.展开更多
In this paper, the East Asia summer monsoon onset date lines in East China are calculated by the definition similar to the traditional one, with the ECMWF reanalyzed 850 hPa daily wind and observed, reana-lyzed and co...In this paper, the East Asia summer monsoon onset date lines in East China are calculated by the definition similar to the traditional one, with the ECMWF reanalyzed 850 hPa daily wind and observed, reana-lyzed and combined daily rainfall during 1980 ~ 1993. To make the onset date line as close as possible to the previous work, the earliest onset date limits have to be applied for the regions with different latitude and the daily mean datasets have to be smoothed by space before calculation, therefore their space-resolution is reduced to about 3 longitude ×1 latitude. The results show that the multiyear mean summer monsoon onset date lines are quite similar to each other. Compared with the one from the reanalysis, the 14-year average onset date line form combination is obviously improved in the southern Sichuan Basin and the correlation between observed and combined onset date is also slightly higher over the Huaihe valley and Northeast China. Since daily rainfall combination also improved the long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP, if no better daily dataset is available, such a kind of daily rainfall combination can be used to get reasonable result in the Indian monsoon region without sufficient observatories or over the North Pacific without any ground obser-vation at all in future study.展开更多
In this paper, by using the pentad-mean NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data for the period of 1958-1997, some characteristic indices of describing the activity of Asian summer monsoon system members are defined and calculated. ...In this paper, by using the pentad-mean NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data for the period of 1958-1997, some characteristic indices of describing the activity of Asian summer monsoon system members are defined and calculated. Based on the above works, a time-lag correlation analysis method is introduced for the correlation analysis between the Asian summer monsoon system and the west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) area index, and some meaningful interaction processes and characteristic phenomena between them are revealed and discussed accordingly. It is shown that there exists some remarkable time-lag correlations in various degree between the Asian summer monsoon system members and the WPSH area index, and they interact and feedback with each other, which consists of the whole Asian summer monsoon system.展开更多
South Asian monsoons were analyzed within the context of increasing emissions of black carbon(BC) aerosols using a global atmospheric general circulation model.The BC aerosols were allowed to increase only over the so...South Asian monsoons were analyzed within the context of increasing emissions of black carbon(BC) aerosols using a global atmospheric general circulation model.The BC aerosols were allowed to increase only over the south Asian domain to analyze the impacts of regional black carbon over the climatological patterns of monsoons.The black carbon significantly absorbed the incoming short wave radiation in the atmosphere,a result that is consistent with previous studies.Pre-monsoon(March-April-May) rainfall showed positive anomalies,particularly for some coastal regions of India.The summer(June-July-August) rainfall anomalies were negative over the northern Himalayas,Myanmar,southern China,and most of the regions below 20°N due to the decrease in temperature gradients induced by the absorption of radiation by BC aerosols.The vertical wind speed anomalies indicated that these regions experienced less convection,which reduces the precipitation efficiency of the monsoon system in South Asia.展开更多
The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global...The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.展开更多
Previous studies have revealed that the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM)is not statistically significant when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)...Previous studies have revealed that the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM)is not statistically significant when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)is in its positive phase.This study explores a possible way to obtain a robust ENSO-EAWM relationship from a dynamical point of view.Here,the authors show that the East Asian winter temperature is significantly and continuously correlated with ENSO when the linear impact of the PDO has been linearly removed from ENSO.Such a conclusion is confirmed by different reanalysis datasets.The dynamical process intensifying the ENSO-EAWM is further investigated from the perspective of whether or not the atmospheric teleconnection between the Pacific and East Asia has established.Compared to the situation associated with the original ENSO in the positive phase of the PDO,the Walker circulation associated with the processed ENSO,from which the effect of North Pacific climate systems has been removed,tends to exert a more pronounced influence on the atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific.Consequently,an anomalous anticyclone emerges in the Kuroshio extension.In this sense,the Pacific-East Asian teleconnection is also well established during the positive phase of the PDO,which favors the impact of ENSO on East Asian winter temperature.展开更多
Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment.Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate chang...Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment.Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon,many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20 th century is anthropologically related.The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally.In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness.This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia.The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970 s found general increases which were mostly varying.But beyond the 1970 s,global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period.There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon.Although precipitation is observed to be 70%below normal levels,in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall.These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future.The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human,financial,infrastructure and food security of the region.展开更多
The correlation analysis has been used to study the relationship between spring soil moisture over China and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). It is shown that EASM has a strong positive correlation with spring soil m...The correlation analysis has been used to study the relationship between spring soil moisture over China and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). It is shown that EASM has a strong positive correlation with spring soil moisture over southwest China and the Great Bend region of the Yellow River. A standard soil moisture index (SMI) has been defined using the observed soil moisture of the two regions. The results show that SMI has a strong correlation with EASM. The years of strong (weak) SMI are associated with stronger (weaker) summer monsoon circulation. In the years of strong SMI, the west Pacific subtropical high is much northward in position and weaker in intensity;the westerlies zone is also more to the north. All of these make EASM circulation move northward and cause the rainfall belt to relocate to North China and Northeast China. SMI can reflect the variation of the summer rainfall anomaly over eastern China. In the years of strong SMI, the rainfall belt is mainly located over the northern part of China. However, during the weak years, the summer rainfall belt is largely located over the mid-and lower-reaches of the Yangtze River. Additionally, the SMI has obvious oscillations of quasi 4-6 years and quasi 2 years. Moreover, negative SMI predicts EASM better than positive SMI.展开更多
Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is...Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.展开更多
Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis geopotential height (GHT) and wind at 850 hPa, GHT at 500 hPa, precipitation rate, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation observations from more than 600 stations nationwide in June-...Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis geopotential height (GHT) and wind at 850 hPa, GHT at 500 hPa, precipitation rate, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation observations from more than 600 stations nationwide in June-August from 1951 to 2006, and focusing on the East Asia-West Pacific region (10°-80°N, 70°-180°E), interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its correlations with general circulation and precipitation patterns are studied by using statistical diagnostic methods such as 9-point high pass filtering, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, composite analysis and other statistical diagnosis, etc. It is concluded as follows: (1) EOF analysis of SLP in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows the existence of the zonal dipole oscillation mode (APD) between the Mongolia depression and the West Pacific high, and APD index can be used as an intensity index of EASM. (2) EOF analysis of GHT anomalies at 500 hPa in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows that the first EOF mode is characterized with an obvious meridional East Asian pattern (EAP), and EAP index can also be used as an EASM intensity index. (3) The composite analysis of high/low APD index years reveals the close correlation of APD index with EAP at 500 hPa (or 850 hPa). The study shows an obvious opposite correlation exists between APD index and EAP index with a correlation coefficient of -0.23, which passes the confidence test at 0.10 level. (4) Both APD and EAP indexes are closely correlated with precipitation during flood-prone season in China and precipitation rate over the East Asia-West Pacific region. The significant correlation area at 5% confidence level is mainly located from the southern area of the Yangtze River valley to the ocean around southern Japan, and the former is a positive correlation and the latter is a negative one.展开更多
Spatial and temporal variations in moisture conditions across monsoon Asia were investigated using 347 Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas(MADA)grid points and 100 Chinese historical documents sites during the years 14702000.W...Spatial and temporal variations in moisture conditions across monsoon Asia were investigated using 347 Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas(MADA)grid points and 100 Chinese historical documents sites during the years 14702000.We applied Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function(REOF)analysis to evaluate spatial moisture variability during the past 530 years.The first 13 principal components together explained 61.35%of the total variance,with the First Principal Component(PC1)accounting for 14.1%.After varimax rotation to the first 13 EOFs,we obtained new time series and spatial patterns.These patterns divided monsoon Asia into 13 regions with coherent moisture variability.Drought events were analyzed within these 13 regions.The results indicate that there has been a prominent drying trend in eastern and central Mongolia,Southeast Asia and east China during the last 50 years.Conversely,India and the Tibetan Plateau show a significant in crease in moisture around the late 20th century.We found four drought periods,A.D.16251644,A.D.17101729,A.D.1920s,and A.D.19751999 occurred widely across monsoon Asia during the past 530 years.On inter-annual time scales,moisture variations in the northwest region of monsoon Asia,the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia are influenced by the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).Thirty-year running correlation coefficient diagnostic analysis revealed that moisture variability in monsoon Asia is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).展开更多
Summer monsoon in Southeast Asia can cause large-scale precipitation in the region in early summer, which is featured by prevailing low-level southwesterly from the Bay of Bengal to South China Sea (SCS). It has cha...Summer monsoon in Southeast Asia can cause large-scale precipitation in the region in early summer, which is featured by prevailing low-level southwesterly from the Bay of Bengal to South China Sea (SCS). It has characteristics of its own as well as those of Asian monsoons in general. As found in studies over recent years on East Asian monsoons, the earliest onset of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon occurs in early summer over the SCS, among all members of the monsoon system. It then advances westward to India and northward to eastern China, Japan and Korean Peninsula. As pointed out by Lau and Yang121, the end of April is the earliest time when the Asian monsoon sets up at the southern tip of Indo-china Peninsula. Being the earliest signal for the whole summer monsoon system in Asia, it may be of some predictive value for the establishment of Asian summer monsoon (ASM).展开更多
Using the equatorial balanced model and the low-corder spectral method to consider the effect of the basic flow, the primary and secondary shear flows, the nonlinear equation describing the winter and summer monsoon i...Using the equatorial balanced model and the low-corder spectral method to consider the effect of the basic flow, the primary and secondary shear flows, the nonlinear equation describing the winter and summer monsoon in south Asia is derived. The stress is on the influence of the flows on the formation,transformation and intensity of the monsoon in south Asia. The results show that the influence on the monsoon in south Asia is significantly different among the primary shear flow, the basic flow and the secondary shear flow.展开更多
The South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) is an important member of the monsoon system for Asia. It is made up of low-level subsystems of the Mascarene high in the Southern Hemisphere, cross-equatorial Somali jet stream...The South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) is an important member of the monsoon system for Asia. It is made up of low-level subsystems of the Mascarene high in the Southern Hemisphere, cross-equatorial Somali jet stream, 850-hPa westerly jet over the Arabian Sea, Indian monsoon trough north of the Bay of Bengal through west India and upper-level tropical easterly jet centered at 5°N and South Asia high centered at 30°N. During the summer monsoon, convection is intense in South Asia, with large scale and in association with abundant amount of latent heat release from condensation. Its anomalies affect not only the industrial and agricultural production and people's life in South Asia, but also the southwestern part of China. SASM is therefore drawing attention from quite a number of meteorologists from home and abroad. For instance, in their search for indicators of the summer monsoon in the region, Parthasarathy et al. Webster et al. and Goswami et al. defined a number of indexes based on precipitation and circulation. Wang et al.studied existing, widely-used indexes and came up with different regional indexes for the circulation and convection of SASM. Hahn et al.worked on the effect of topography on SASM. With wind field data, Wang et al. divided the years by the intensity of SASM and analyzed the characteristics of interannual variation and circulation for strong and weak years of monsoon. They found that the SASM intensified and weakened as a whole and there were four types of monsoon, being wholly strong and weak, stronger in the west than in the east and weaker in the west than in the east. Yan et al.discow,'red sharp differences in individual members of the SASM at upper and lower levels over middle and lowe,r latitudes in both strong and weak years of the monsoon. Using, the dynamics method, Zhu et al. took the South Asia winter and summer monsoons as two stable equilibrium states and discussed the formation mechanism from the viewpoint of non-linear equilibrium theory. Their result further shows that in addition to thermal difference between land and sea, the topographic effect of South Asia also has significant restraints and influence on the formation and activity of the monsoon展开更多
This paper describes the latest progress of a collaborative research program entitled "Modeling Aerosol Climate Effects over Monsoon Asia", under the Climate Sciences agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy ...This paper describes the latest progress of a collaborative research program entitled "Modeling Aerosol Climate Effects over Monsoon Asia", under the Climate Sciences agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Chinese Academy of Sciences(in the early 1980 s, Professor Duzheng YE played a critical role in leading and formalizing the agreement). Here, the rationale and approach for pursuing the program, the participants, and research activities of recent years are first described, and then the highlights of the program's key findings and relevant scientific issues, as well as follow-up studies, are presented and discussed.展开更多
The relationship between meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific is analysed in this paper. It is pointed out that there exist close relations between the seasonal cha...The relationship between meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific is analysed in this paper. It is pointed out that there exist close relations between the seasonal changes of the meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. The intensification of north winds over East Asia also plays an important role in the rise of SST in Equatorial Eastern Pacific one year later. The strong winter monsoon usually occurs in previous winter of El Nino and it causes low temperature to a great extent in China . The low temperature in China can be regarded as a precursor of El Nino.展开更多
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (40365001) Intramural research program of Yunnan University (2002Q014ZH)
文摘The interdecadal variability of the East Asia summer monsoon during 1951~1999 is analyzed by using two different East Asia monsoon indices. The results agree on the point that the East Asia monsoon has undergone an interdecadal variability in the mid-1970s. The intensity of the East Asia monsoon is weaker after this transition. Moreover the intensity and location of subtropical high that is an important component in East Asia monsoon system also shows interdecadal variation obviously. It is the interdecadal variation in atmospheric circulation that causes the drought over North China and flooding along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River after the mid-1970s.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.40136010)carried out at the Ocean University of China as part of the US National Science Foundation REU in M arine Science and Engineering in China,under Grant Number OISR-0229657.
文摘The interdecadal factors affecting the summer monsoon winds over Somalia and the South China Sea were studied. Global geopotential heights and wind velocity fields of the 850-hPa and 200-hPa pressure levels, as well as sea surface temperature anomaly data and correlation coefficients were analyzed. The monsoons over Somalia and the South China Sea were found to be two different monsoon systems, operating on different mechanisms and being affected by different oceanatmosphere interactions. The intensity of the Asian subtropical summer monsoon is influenced by the intensity of the summer monsoon over Somalia in the month of June and by the intensity of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea in the months of June and July. The summer monsoon wind strength over Somalia is affected by regional factors, such as the heating of the Tibetan plateau, and by global mechanisms, such as the subtropical heat exchange with Antarctica. The summer monsoon over the South China Sea is affected by different ocean-atmosphere interactions. The Somalia and subtropical summer monsoons have wind blowing down the pressure gradient from area over ocean to that over land, like typical summer monsoons. The South China Sea summer monsoon has winds that blow down the pressure gradient from area over land to that over ocean. The South China Sea summer monsoon is affected by the Kuroshio Current off the east coast of Japan.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42075083)National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2019YFC1510400)+1 种基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(Grant No.2020B0301030004)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expe-dition and Research(STEP)program(2019QZKK010402)。
文摘Representation of cloud microphysical processes is one of the key aspects of numerical models.An improved double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme(named IMY)was created based on the standard Milbrandt-Yau(MY)scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for the East Asian monsoon region(EAMR).In the IMY scheme,the shape parameters of raindrops,snow particles,and cloud droplet size distributions are variables instead of fixed constants.Specifically,the shape parameters of raindrop and snow size distributions are diagnosed from their respective shape-slope relationships.The shape parameter for the cloud droplet size distribution depends on the total cloud droplet number concentration.In addition,a series of minor improvements involving detailed cloud processes have also been incorporated.The improved scheme was coupled into the WRF model and tested on two heavy rainfall cases over the EAMR.The IMY scheme is shown to reproduce the overall spatial distribution of rainfall and its temporal evolution,evidenced by comparing the modeled results with surface gauge observations.The simulations also successfully capture the cloud features by using satellite and ground-based radar observations as a reference.The IMY has yielded simulation results on the case studies that were comparable,and in ways superior to MY,indicating that the improved scheme shows promise.Although the simulations demonstrated a positive performance evaluation for the IMY scheme,continued experiments are required to further validate the scheme with different weather events.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(91215302,51278308)Open Project for State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry,Institute of Atmospheric Physics(LAPC)Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2014J01146)
文摘Based on the 1961-2010 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, this work uses empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and composite analysis to study the distributions of zonal land-sea thermal contrast between Asia and the Pacific during transitions from the summer monsoon to the winter monsoon in East Asian subtropics, and investigates the interannual variations of the thermal contrast and their relationships with circulation systems over the East Asian subtropics. The findings are as follows. 1) In autumn, the interannual variations of the temperature deviation in the middle and upper troposphere show significant east-west out-of-phase teleconnection over Asia and the central and eastern Pacific, i.e. the Asian-Pacific Oscillation, or APO. 2) While not as significant as in summer with regard to coverage and intensity, the APO shows interannual variations in autumn that well depicts the change in the intensity of the subtropical monsoon. In the high(low) APO year, the current subtropical summer monsoon is strong(weak) and the winter monsoon is weak(strong) in East Asia as derived from the general circulation and wind field of the East Asian-Pacific region.
基金Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-Q11-02)
文摘The performance of spectral nudging in an investigation of the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon was assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by 1-degree NCEP Global Final Analysis (FNL). Two pairs of experiments were made, spectral nudging (SP) and non-spectral nudging (NOSP), with five members in each group. The members were distinguished by different initial times, and the analysis was based on the ensemble mean of the two simulation pairs. The SP was able to constrain error growth in large-scale circulation in upper-level, during simulation, and generate realistic regional scale patterns. The main focus was the model ability to simulate precipitation. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product was used for precipitation verification. Mean precipitation magnitude was generally overestimated by WRF. Nevertheless, SP simulations suppressed overestimation relative to the NOSP experiments. Compared to TRMM, SP also improved model simulation of precipitation in spatial and temporal distributions, with the ability to reproduce movement of rainbands. However, extreme precipitation events were suppressed in the SP simulations.
基金National Science Foundation of China (No.49875020) and National Key Programme for developing Basic Sciences (No. G1999043803)
文摘In this paper, the East Asia summer monsoon onset date lines in East China are calculated by the definition similar to the traditional one, with the ECMWF reanalyzed 850 hPa daily wind and observed, reana-lyzed and combined daily rainfall during 1980 ~ 1993. To make the onset date line as close as possible to the previous work, the earliest onset date limits have to be applied for the regions with different latitude and the daily mean datasets have to be smoothed by space before calculation, therefore their space-resolution is reduced to about 3 longitude ×1 latitude. The results show that the multiyear mean summer monsoon onset date lines are quite similar to each other. Compared with the one from the reanalysis, the 14-year average onset date line form combination is obviously improved in the southern Sichuan Basin and the correlation between observed and combined onset date is also slightly higher over the Huaihe valley and Northeast China. Since daily rainfall combination also improved the long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP, if no better daily dataset is available, such a kind of daily rainfall combination can be used to get reasonable result in the Indian monsoon region without sufficient observatories or over the North Pacific without any ground obser-vation at all in future study.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40375019)Jiangsu Provincial KeyLaboratory of Meteorological Disasters Research Program (KLME0507) and LASG Open Project
文摘In this paper, by using the pentad-mean NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data for the period of 1958-1997, some characteristic indices of describing the activity of Asian summer monsoon system members are defined and calculated. Based on the above works, a time-lag correlation analysis method is introduced for the correlation analysis between the Asian summer monsoon system and the west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) area index, and some meaningful interaction processes and characteristic phenomena between them are revealed and discussed accordingly. It is shown that there exists some remarkable time-lag correlations in various degree between the Asian summer monsoon system members and the WPSH area index, and they interact and feedback with each other, which consists of the whole Asian summer monsoon system.
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-Q11-03)
文摘South Asian monsoons were analyzed within the context of increasing emissions of black carbon(BC) aerosols using a global atmospheric general circulation model.The BC aerosols were allowed to increase only over the south Asian domain to analyze the impacts of regional black carbon over the climatological patterns of monsoons.The black carbon significantly absorbed the incoming short wave radiation in the atmosphere,a result that is consistent with previous studies.Pre-monsoon(March-April-May) rainfall showed positive anomalies,particularly for some coastal regions of India.The summer(June-July-August) rainfall anomalies were negative over the northern Himalayas,Myanmar,southern China,and most of the regions below 20°N due to the decrease in temperature gradients induced by the absorption of radiation by BC aerosols.The vertical wind speed anomalies indicated that these regions experienced less convection,which reduces the precipitation efficiency of the monsoon system in South Asia.
基金supported by the State Key Program of the National Natural Science of China(Grant No.41730964)the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster(2018YFC1506000)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41975091 and 42175047)National Basic Research Program of China(2015CB453203)UK-China Research&Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund.
文摘The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.
基金This research was supported by the Key Laboratory for Cloud Physics of the China Meteorological Administration[grant number 2018Z01612]Department of Finance of Hebei Province[grant number HBRYWCSY_2017_00].
文摘Previous studies have revealed that the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM)is not statistically significant when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)is in its positive phase.This study explores a possible way to obtain a robust ENSO-EAWM relationship from a dynamical point of view.Here,the authors show that the East Asian winter temperature is significantly and continuously correlated with ENSO when the linear impact of the PDO has been linearly removed from ENSO.Such a conclusion is confirmed by different reanalysis datasets.The dynamical process intensifying the ENSO-EAWM is further investigated from the perspective of whether or not the atmospheric teleconnection between the Pacific and East Asia has established.Compared to the situation associated with the original ENSO in the positive phase of the PDO,the Walker circulation associated with the processed ENSO,from which the effect of North Pacific climate systems has been removed,tends to exert a more pronounced influence on the atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific.Consequently,an anomalous anticyclone emerges in the Kuroshio extension.In this sense,the Pacific-East Asian teleconnection is also well established during the positive phase of the PDO,which favors the impact of ENSO on East Asian winter temperature.
文摘Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment.Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon,many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20 th century is anthropologically related.The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally.In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness.This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia.The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970 s found general increases which were mostly varying.But beyond the 1970 s,global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period.There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon.Although precipitation is observed to be 70%below normal levels,in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall.These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future.The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human,financial,infrastructure and food security of the region.
文摘The correlation analysis has been used to study the relationship between spring soil moisture over China and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). It is shown that EASM has a strong positive correlation with spring soil moisture over southwest China and the Great Bend region of the Yellow River. A standard soil moisture index (SMI) has been defined using the observed soil moisture of the two regions. The results show that SMI has a strong correlation with EASM. The years of strong (weak) SMI are associated with stronger (weaker) summer monsoon circulation. In the years of strong SMI, the west Pacific subtropical high is much northward in position and weaker in intensity;the westerlies zone is also more to the north. All of these make EASM circulation move northward and cause the rainfall belt to relocate to North China and Northeast China. SMI can reflect the variation of the summer rainfall anomaly over eastern China. In the years of strong SMI, the rainfall belt is mainly located over the northern part of China. However, during the weak years, the summer rainfall belt is largely located over the mid-and lower-reaches of the Yangtze River. Additionally, the SMI has obvious oscillations of quasi 4-6 years and quasi 2 years. Moreover, negative SMI predicts EASM better than positive SMI.
基金supported jointly by the National Key Basic Research Development Program(Grant No.G1999043403)the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)(Grant No.KZCX3-SW-218)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China project for young scientists fund(No.40305012) the Western Project of the CAS (KZCX1-10-07).
文摘Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.
基金funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China,No.2007DFB20210National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.90502003JICA China-Japan Technical Cooperative Project "China-Japanese Cooperative Research Center on Meteorological Disasters"
文摘Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis geopotential height (GHT) and wind at 850 hPa, GHT at 500 hPa, precipitation rate, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation observations from more than 600 stations nationwide in June-August from 1951 to 2006, and focusing on the East Asia-West Pacific region (10°-80°N, 70°-180°E), interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its correlations with general circulation and precipitation patterns are studied by using statistical diagnostic methods such as 9-point high pass filtering, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, composite analysis and other statistical diagnosis, etc. It is concluded as follows: (1) EOF analysis of SLP in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows the existence of the zonal dipole oscillation mode (APD) between the Mongolia depression and the West Pacific high, and APD index can be used as an intensity index of EASM. (2) EOF analysis of GHT anomalies at 500 hPa in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows that the first EOF mode is characterized with an obvious meridional East Asian pattern (EAP), and EAP index can also be used as an EASM intensity index. (3) The composite analysis of high/low APD index years reveals the close correlation of APD index with EAP at 500 hPa (or 850 hPa). The study shows an obvious opposite correlation exists between APD index and EAP index with a correlation coefficient of -0.23, which passes the confidence test at 0.10 level. (4) Both APD and EAP indexes are closely correlated with precipitation during flood-prone season in China and precipitation rate over the East Asia-West Pacific region. The significant correlation area at 5% confidence level is mainly located from the southern area of the Yangtze River valley to the ocean around southern Japan, and the former is a positive correlation and the latter is a negative one.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41405085 and 41325008)Interdisciplinary Innovation Team project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (29Y329B91)+1 种基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences Visiting Professorship for Senior International Scientists (Grant No. 2010T1Z31)Foundation for Excellent Youth Scholars of CAREERI, CAS
文摘Spatial and temporal variations in moisture conditions across monsoon Asia were investigated using 347 Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas(MADA)grid points and 100 Chinese historical documents sites during the years 14702000.We applied Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function(REOF)analysis to evaluate spatial moisture variability during the past 530 years.The first 13 principal components together explained 61.35%of the total variance,with the First Principal Component(PC1)accounting for 14.1%.After varimax rotation to the first 13 EOFs,we obtained new time series and spatial patterns.These patterns divided monsoon Asia into 13 regions with coherent moisture variability.Drought events were analyzed within these 13 regions.The results indicate that there has been a prominent drying trend in eastern and central Mongolia,Southeast Asia and east China during the last 50 years.Conversely,India and the Tibetan Plateau show a significant in crease in moisture around the late 20th century.We found four drought periods,A.D.16251644,A.D.17101729,A.D.1920s,and A.D.19751999 occurred widely across monsoon Asia during the past 530 years.On inter-annual time scales,moisture variations in the northwest region of monsoon Asia,the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia are influenced by the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).Thirty-year running correlation coefficient diagnostic analysis revealed that moisture variability in monsoon Asia is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).
文摘Summer monsoon in Southeast Asia can cause large-scale precipitation in the region in early summer, which is featured by prevailing low-level southwesterly from the Bay of Bengal to South China Sea (SCS). It has characteristics of its own as well as those of Asian monsoons in general. As found in studies over recent years on East Asian monsoons, the earliest onset of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon occurs in early summer over the SCS, among all members of the monsoon system. It then advances westward to India and northward to eastern China, Japan and Korean Peninsula. As pointed out by Lau and Yang121, the end of April is the earliest time when the Asian monsoon sets up at the southern tip of Indo-china Peninsula. Being the earliest signal for the whole summer monsoon system in Asia, it may be of some predictive value for the establishment of Asian summer monsoon (ASM).
文摘Using the equatorial balanced model and the low-corder spectral method to consider the effect of the basic flow, the primary and secondary shear flows, the nonlinear equation describing the winter and summer monsoon in south Asia is derived. The stress is on the influence of the flows on the formation,transformation and intensity of the monsoon in south Asia. The results show that the influence on the monsoon in south Asia is significantly different among the primary shear flow, the basic flow and the secondary shear flow.
文摘The South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) is an important member of the monsoon system for Asia. It is made up of low-level subsystems of the Mascarene high in the Southern Hemisphere, cross-equatorial Somali jet stream, 850-hPa westerly jet over the Arabian Sea, Indian monsoon trough north of the Bay of Bengal through west India and upper-level tropical easterly jet centered at 5°N and South Asia high centered at 30°N. During the summer monsoon, convection is intense in South Asia, with large scale and in association with abundant amount of latent heat release from condensation. Its anomalies affect not only the industrial and agricultural production and people's life in South Asia, but also the southwestern part of China. SASM is therefore drawing attention from quite a number of meteorologists from home and abroad. For instance, in their search for indicators of the summer monsoon in the region, Parthasarathy et al. Webster et al. and Goswami et al. defined a number of indexes based on precipitation and circulation. Wang et al.studied existing, widely-used indexes and came up with different regional indexes for the circulation and convection of SASM. Hahn et al.worked on the effect of topography on SASM. With wind field data, Wang et al. divided the years by the intensity of SASM and analyzed the characteristics of interannual variation and circulation for strong and weak years of monsoon. They found that the SASM intensified and weakened as a whole and there were four types of monsoon, being wholly strong and weak, stronger in the west than in the east and weaker in the west than in the east. Yan et al.discow,'red sharp differences in individual members of the SASM at upper and lower levels over middle and lowe,r latitudes in both strong and weak years of the monsoon. Using, the dynamics method, Zhu et al. took the South Asia winter and summer monsoons as two stable equilibrium states and discussed the formation mechanism from the viewpoint of non-linear equilibrium theory. Their result further shows that in addition to thermal difference between land and sea, the topographic effect of South Asia also has significant restraints and influence on the formation and activity of the monsoon
基金support by a grant from the Office of Sciences(BER),U.S.DOEsupport from the Key National Basic Research Program on Global Change(Grant No.2013CB955803)to facilitate the visits to Peking University and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics
文摘This paper describes the latest progress of a collaborative research program entitled "Modeling Aerosol Climate Effects over Monsoon Asia", under the Climate Sciences agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Chinese Academy of Sciences(in the early 1980 s, Professor Duzheng YE played a critical role in leading and formalizing the agreement). Here, the rationale and approach for pursuing the program, the participants, and research activities of recent years are first described, and then the highlights of the program's key findings and relevant scientific issues, as well as follow-up studies, are presented and discussed.
文摘The relationship between meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific is analysed in this paper. It is pointed out that there exist close relations between the seasonal changes of the meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. The intensification of north winds over East Asia also plays an important role in the rise of SST in Equatorial Eastern Pacific one year later. The strong winter monsoon usually occurs in previous winter of El Nino and it causes low temperature to a great extent in China . The low temperature in China can be regarded as a precursor of El Nino.