This paper develops the CIR model. In this model, labor is introduced in the production function and leisure in the direct utility function. We examine how the trade-off between labor and leisure would affect asset pr...This paper develops the CIR model. In this model, labor is introduced in the production function and leisure in the direct utility function. We examine how the trade-off between labor and leisure would affect asset prices and derive a familiar principal partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy. The solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in economy.展开更多
With the acceleration of economic globalization and financial liberalization,factors of asset prices such as stock,bond and real estate and so on become important economic variables that affect inflation. After a brie...With the acceleration of economic globalization and financial liberalization,factors of asset prices such as stock,bond and real estate and so on become important economic variables that affect inflation. After a brief review of the latest literature,this paper analyzes the specific conduction mechanism from different aspects of consumption,investment,credit and exchange rate channels in which asset prices affect inflation. Then,this paper analyzes the monthly data from January,2002 to December,2013 with the PLS method(partial least squares regression method)and discusses whether a structural change has taken place in the inflation mechanism during this period. Finally,policy recommendations are provided.展开更多
The paper asserts that the misperceptions of noise traders are a behavioral bias characterized by overreactions. By introducing the overreaction coefficient, we provide an explanation for the volatility of asset price...The paper asserts that the misperceptions of noise traders are a behavioral bias characterized by overreactions. By introducing the overreaction coefficient, we provide an explanation for the volatility of asset prices and bubbles in a simplified framework that is similar to the DSSW （1990a） model. When the underlying asset is involved with a fundamental shock, noise traders will generally overreact to it, which creates an ＂overreaction risk＂. This kind of risk will make the asset prices more volatile, and even make up asset bubbles. Therefore, asset bubbles can be regarded as a psychological phenomenon, and are actually the results of the psychological changing process of noise traders.展开更多
This paper investigates testable restrictions on the time-series behavior of consumption and asset returns implied by a representative agent model with the spirit of capitalism in which intertemporal preference is rep...This paper investigates testable restrictions on the time-series behavior of consumption and asset returns implied by a representative agent model with the spirit of capitalism in which intertemporal preference is represented by a utility function that generalizes conventional, time-additive, expected utility. In the recursive structure of preference, the author examines the implication for cosumptions, portfolio holdings, and stock-market prices when investors accumulate wealth not only for the sake of consumption but also for wealth-induced social status. When investors care about relative social status, the propensity to consume and risk-taking behavior will depend on social standards, and stock prices will be volatible. Hence, the spirit of capitalism seems to be a driving force behind stock-market volatility and economic growth. Because the elasticity df substitution and the coefficient of relative risk aversion are independent and the spirit of capitalism is introduced, the equity premium puzzle can be partially explained in the model.展开更多
Testing the validity of the conditional capital asset pricing model （CAPM） is a puzzle in the finance literature. Lewellen and Nagel[14] find that the variation in betas and in the equity premium would have to be im...Testing the validity of the conditional capital asset pricing model （CAPM） is a puzzle in the finance literature. Lewellen and Nagel[14] find that the variation in betas and in the equity premium would have to be implausibly large to explain important asset-pricing anomalies. Unfortunately, they do not provide a rigorous test statistic. Based on a simulation study, the method proposed in Lewellen and Nagel[14] tends to reject the null too frequently. We develop a new test procedure and derive its limiting distribution under the null hypothesis. Also, we provide a Bootstrap approach to the testing procedure to gain a good finite sample performance. Both simulations and empirical studies show that our test is necessary for making correct inferences with the conditional CAPM.展开更多
The paper combines Tobin's Q theory of real investment with the capital asset pricing model to produce a new and relatively simple procedure for the valuation of real assets using the income approach. Applications...The paper combines Tobin's Q theory of real investment with the capital asset pricing model to produce a new and relatively simple procedure for the valuation of real assets using the income approach. Applications of the new method are provided.展开更多
This paper estimates proxy specifications of a five-factor asset pricing model to produce stylized facts of the Saudi capital market and test an arbitrage pricing theory （APT） model. The data set is the panel of 20 ...This paper estimates proxy specifications of a five-factor asset pricing model to produce stylized facts of the Saudi capital market and test an arbitrage pricing theory （APT） model. The data set is the panel of 20 most actively traded firms, excluding firms with negative book value of equity. The contribution to the extant literature is three-fold： （l） organizing Saudi market data based on beta and firm-specific fundamentals, namely, growth, value, accounting earnings, and equity investments; （2） conducting a parsimony analysis within the theoretical framework of APT; and （3） quantifying the information risk facing the marginal investor by decomposing earnings into cash flows and accruals and investigating respective loadings in an unrestricted version of the parsimonious specification. Proxy asset pricing specifications, though intuitively appealing, are scant due to lack of theoretical frameworks and misguided significance tests of factor loadings. Throughout, this issue is addressed by keeping the empirical analysis under describing market facts and testing an APT model. The study concludes with a significant empirical explanation that specifies average returns in terms of the covariance risk and accounting accruals.展开更多
The aim of this paper is to test the ability of conditional and unconditional capital asset pricing models （CAPMs） and to explain emerging markets returns in terms of their integration into the international market....The aim of this paper is to test the ability of conditional and unconditional capital asset pricing models （CAPMs） and to explain emerging markets returns in terms of their integration into the international market. The authors use data on five developed countries and five emerging countries as well as data on the Tunis Stock Exchange （TSE） after the reforms. The results show that the correlations between emerging markets returns and developed markets returns are very low and sometimes negative. Conditional arbitrage pricing theory （APT） as well as conditional CAPM has low predictive power for emerging markets than that for developed markets. Finally, following the financial reforms, Tunisian financial markets have became more and more integrated into the international market （excess returns and unconditional beta consistent with predictions）. However, conditional APT does not accurately explain Tunisian market returns. This study confirms the unavailability of an accurate modelling technique of the TSE structure.展开更多
Discussing results in asset pricing and efficient portfolio allocation,we show that mixed success and errors in these results often follow from a lack of information about the asset return distribution and wrong assum...Discussing results in asset pricing and efficient portfolio allocation,we show that mixed success and errors in these results often follow from a lack of information about the asset return distribution and wrong assumptions about its properties.Some mistakes in asset pricing come from the assumption of symmetry in return distributions.Some errors in efficient portfolio allocation follow from Markowitz’s approach when applying it to portfolio optimization of skewed asset returns.The Extended Merton model(EMM),generating skewed return distributions,demonstrates that(i)in skewed asset returns,the variance is not an adequate measure of risks and(ii)positive skewness in the asset returns comes together with a high default probability.Thus,the maximization of the mean portfolio returns and skewness with controlled variance used in mainstream papers can critically increase portfolio risks.We present the new settings of the optimal portfolio allocation problem leading to less risky efficient portfolios than the solutions suggested in all previous papers.展开更多
As the downward trend levels out,companies from China are finding big bargains around the globe.A new wave of Chinese outbound oil acquisitions is expected in the second half of 2015 as well-financed Chinese firms tak...As the downward trend levels out,companies from China are finding big bargains around the globe.A new wave of Chinese outbound oil acquisitions is expected in the second half of 2015 as well-financed Chinese firms take advantage of struggling companies while oil prices remain low globally,industry insiders say.The huge drop in oil prices over the past year,from US$110 per barrel in early July of last year to below US$50 by the beginning of 2015, has fundamentally shocked the industry. But the prevailing forecast in the business is for price stabilization.展开更多
文摘This paper develops the CIR model. In this model, labor is introduced in the production function and leisure in the direct utility function. We examine how the trade-off between labor and leisure would affect asset prices and derive a familiar principal partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy. The solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in economy.
文摘With the acceleration of economic globalization and financial liberalization,factors of asset prices such as stock,bond and real estate and so on become important economic variables that affect inflation. After a brief review of the latest literature,this paper analyzes the specific conduction mechanism from different aspects of consumption,investment,credit and exchange rate channels in which asset prices affect inflation. Then,this paper analyzes the monthly data from January,2002 to December,2013 with the PLS method(partial least squares regression method)and discusses whether a structural change has taken place in the inflation mechanism during this period. Finally,policy recommendations are provided.
文摘The paper asserts that the misperceptions of noise traders are a behavioral bias characterized by overreactions. By introducing the overreaction coefficient, we provide an explanation for the volatility of asset prices and bubbles in a simplified framework that is similar to the DSSW （1990a） model. When the underlying asset is involved with a fundamental shock, noise traders will generally overreact to it, which creates an ＂overreaction risk＂. This kind of risk will make the asset prices more volatile, and even make up asset bubbles. Therefore, asset bubbles can be regarded as a psychological phenomenon, and are actually the results of the psychological changing process of noise traders.
文摘This paper investigates testable restrictions on the time-series behavior of consumption and asset returns implied by a representative agent model with the spirit of capitalism in which intertemporal preference is represented by a utility function that generalizes conventional, time-additive, expected utility. In the recursive structure of preference, the author examines the implication for cosumptions, portfolio holdings, and stock-market prices when investors accumulate wealth not only for the sake of consumption but also for wealth-induced social status. When investors care about relative social status, the propensity to consume and risk-taking behavior will depend on social standards, and stock prices will be volatible. Hence, the spirit of capitalism seems to be a driving force behind stock-market volatility and economic growth. Because the elasticity df substitution and the coefficient of relative risk aversion are independent and the spirit of capitalism is introduced, the equity premium puzzle can be partially explained in the model.
基金the National Nature Science Foundation of China(71131008(Key Project),70871003,70971113)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2013221022)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2011J01384)the Natural Science Foundation of China(71301135,71203189,71131008)
文摘Testing the validity of the conditional capital asset pricing model （CAPM） is a puzzle in the finance literature. Lewellen and Nagel[14] find that the variation in betas and in the equity premium would have to be implausibly large to explain important asset-pricing anomalies. Unfortunately, they do not provide a rigorous test statistic. Based on a simulation study, the method proposed in Lewellen and Nagel[14] tends to reject the null too frequently. We develop a new test procedure and derive its limiting distribution under the null hypothesis. Also, we provide a Bootstrap approach to the testing procedure to gain a good finite sample performance. Both simulations and empirical studies show that our test is necessary for making correct inferences with the conditional CAPM.
文摘The paper combines Tobin's Q theory of real investment with the capital asset pricing model to produce a new and relatively simple procedure for the valuation of real assets using the income approach. Applications of the new method are provided.
文摘This paper estimates proxy specifications of a five-factor asset pricing model to produce stylized facts of the Saudi capital market and test an arbitrage pricing theory （APT） model. The data set is the panel of 20 most actively traded firms, excluding firms with negative book value of equity. The contribution to the extant literature is three-fold： （l） organizing Saudi market data based on beta and firm-specific fundamentals, namely, growth, value, accounting earnings, and equity investments; （2） conducting a parsimony analysis within the theoretical framework of APT; and （3） quantifying the information risk facing the marginal investor by decomposing earnings into cash flows and accruals and investigating respective loadings in an unrestricted version of the parsimonious specification. Proxy asset pricing specifications, though intuitively appealing, are scant due to lack of theoretical frameworks and misguided significance tests of factor loadings. Throughout, this issue is addressed by keeping the empirical analysis under describing market facts and testing an APT model. The study concludes with a significant empirical explanation that specifies average returns in terms of the covariance risk and accounting accruals.
文摘The aim of this paper is to test the ability of conditional and unconditional capital asset pricing models （CAPMs） and to explain emerging markets returns in terms of their integration into the international market. The authors use data on five developed countries and five emerging countries as well as data on the Tunis Stock Exchange （TSE） after the reforms. The results show that the correlations between emerging markets returns and developed markets returns are very low and sometimes negative. Conditional arbitrage pricing theory （APT） as well as conditional CAPM has low predictive power for emerging markets than that for developed markets. Finally, following the financial reforms, Tunisian financial markets have became more and more integrated into the international market （excess returns and unconditional beta consistent with predictions）. However, conditional APT does not accurately explain Tunisian market returns. This study confirms the unavailability of an accurate modelling technique of the TSE structure.
文摘Discussing results in asset pricing and efficient portfolio allocation,we show that mixed success and errors in these results often follow from a lack of information about the asset return distribution and wrong assumptions about its properties.Some mistakes in asset pricing come from the assumption of symmetry in return distributions.Some errors in efficient portfolio allocation follow from Markowitz’s approach when applying it to portfolio optimization of skewed asset returns.The Extended Merton model(EMM),generating skewed return distributions,demonstrates that(i)in skewed asset returns,the variance is not an adequate measure of risks and(ii)positive skewness in the asset returns comes together with a high default probability.Thus,the maximization of the mean portfolio returns and skewness with controlled variance used in mainstream papers can critically increase portfolio risks.We present the new settings of the optimal portfolio allocation problem leading to less risky efficient portfolios than the solutions suggested in all previous papers.
文摘As the downward trend levels out,companies from China are finding big bargains around the globe.A new wave of Chinese outbound oil acquisitions is expected in the second half of 2015 as well-financed Chinese firms take advantage of struggling companies while oil prices remain low globally,industry insiders say.The huge drop in oil prices over the past year,from US$110 per barrel in early July of last year to below US$50 by the beginning of 2015, has fundamentally shocked the industry. But the prevailing forecast in the business is for price stabilization.
