The measured relative rates of halophilic and protophilic attacks (k_X/k_H) indicate that the rates of halophilic attacks are comparable in magnitude to those of protophilic attacks (deprotonations).
Background:The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic hit South America badly with multiple waves.Different COVID-19 variants have been storming across the region,leading to more severe infections and deaths even in places with hi...Background:The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic hit South America badly with multiple waves.Different COVID-19 variants have been storming across the region,leading to more severe infections and deaths even in places with high vaccination coverage.This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal variability of the COVID-19 pandemic and estimate the infection fatality rate(IFR),infection attack rate(IAR)and reproduction number(R0)for twelve most affected South American countries.Methods:We fit a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered(SEIR)-based model with a time-varying transmission rate to the reported COVID-19 deaths for the twelve South American countries with the highest mortalities.Most of the epidemiological datasets analysed in this work are retrieved from the disease surveillance systems by the World Health Organization,Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center and Our World in Data.We investigate the COVID-19 mortalities in these countries,which could represent the situation for the overall South American region.We employ COVID-19 dynamic model with-and-without vaccination considering time-varying flexible transmission rate to estimate IFR,IAR and R0 of COVID-19 for the South American countries.Results:We simulate the model in each scenario under suitable parameter settings and yield biologically reasonable estimates for IFR(varies between 0.303% and 0.723%),IAR(varies between 0.03 and 0.784)and R0(varies between 0.7 and 2.5)for the 12 South American countries.We observe that the severity,dynamical patterns of deaths and time-varying transmission rates among the countries are highly heterogeneous.Further analysis of the model with the effect of vaccination highlights that increasing the vaccination rate could help suppress the pandemic in South America.Conclusions:This study reveals possible reasons for the two waves of COVID-19 outbreaks in South America.We observed reductions in the transmission rate corresponding to each wave plausibly due to improvement in nonpharmaceutical interventions measures and human protective behavioral reaction to recent deaths.Thus,strategies coupling social distancing and vaccination could substantially suppress the mortality rate of COVID-19 in South America.展开更多
Objectives:Serological surveys were used to infer the infection attack rate in different populations.The sensitivity of the testing assay,Abbott,drops fast over time since infection which makes the serological data di...Objectives:Serological surveys were used to infer the infection attack rate in different populations.The sensitivity of the testing assay,Abbott,drops fast over time since infection which makes the serological data difficult to interpret.In this work,we aim to solve this issue.Methods:We collect longitudinal serological data of Abbott to construct a sensitive decay function.We use the reported COVID-19 deaths to infer the infections,and use the decay function to simulate the seroprevalence and match to the reported seroprevalence in 12 Indian cities.Results:Our model simulated seroprevalence matchs the reported seroprevalence in most of the 12 Indian cities.We obtain reasonable infection attack rate and infection fatality rate for most of the 12 Indian cities.Conclusions:Using both reported COVID-19 deaths data and serological survey data,we infer the infection attack rate and infection fatality rate with increased confidence.展开更多
本刊曾经多次刊登文章盛赞百年老药阿斯匹林。去年第10期就载文称阿斯匹林能抗前列腺癌,今又消息文称,阿斯匹林能减少心脏病人的死亡率。百年老药.青春犹在,至今仍能让人们不断发现其新的功效!本文除了传递了有关阿斯匹林的新信息之外...本刊曾经多次刊登文章盛赞百年老药阿斯匹林。去年第10期就载文称阿斯匹林能抗前列腺癌,今又消息文称,阿斯匹林能减少心脏病人的死亡率。百年老药.青春犹在,至今仍能让人们不断发现其新的功效!本文除了传递了有关阿斯匹林的新信息之外,以下观点,也让我们耳目一新: Even as we live and practice medicine in an era of high technology,we mustalways remember that widespread application of relatively low technology,efficacious(有效的;灵验的),and cost-effective(有成本效益的,值得花费的)therapies is often the way we help most of our patients and provide the greatestaggregate(集合的;聚合的)benefit for the broader population. 上句是否可以这样译: 即使我们生活、就医在一个高科技的时代,但是,我们仍必须一直牢记:科技含量相对较低却又广为应用的东西,其灵验而又具有成本效益的治疗常常是我们帮助大多数患者,为广大群众提供最大利益的途径。 上句的难点在于:如何理解provide the greatest aggregate benefit for thebroader population的主语。展开更多
Background Nepal has achieved and sustained the elimination of leprosy as a public health problem since 2009,but 17 districts and 3 provinces with 41%(10,907,128)of Nepal’s population have yet to eliminate the diseas...Background Nepal has achieved and sustained the elimination of leprosy as a public health problem since 2009,but 17 districts and 3 provinces with 41%(10,907,128)of Nepal’s population have yet to eliminate the disease.Pediatric cases and grade-2 disabilities(G2D)indicate recent transmission and late diagnosis,respectively,which necessitate active and early case detection.This operational research was performed to identify approaches best suited for early case detection,determine community-based leprosy epidemiology,and identify hidden leprosy cases early and respond with prompt treatment.Methods Active case detection was undertaken in two Nepali provinces with the greatest burden of leprosy,Madhesh Province(40%national cases)and Lumbini Province(18%)and at-risk prison populations in Madhesh,Lumbini and Bagmati provinces.Case detection was performed by(1)house-to-house visits among vulnerable populations(n=26,469);(2)contact examination and tracing(n=7608);in Madhesh and Lumbini Provinces and,(3)screening prison populations(n=4428)in Madhesh,Lumbini and Bagmati Provinces of Nepal.Per case direct medical and nonmedical costs for each approach were calculated.Results New case detection rates were highest for contact tracing(250),followed by house-to-house visits(102)and prison screening(45)per 100,000 population screened.However,the cost per case identifed was cheapest for house-to-house visits[Nepalese rupee(NPR)76,500/case],followed by contact tracing(NPR 90,286/case)and prison screening(NPR 298,300/case).House-to-house and contact tracing case paucibacillary/multibacillary(PB:MB)ratios were 59:41 and 68:32;female/male ratios 63:37 and 57:43;pediatric cases 11%in both approaches;and grade-2 disabilities(G2D)11%and 5%,respectively.Developing leprosy was not signifcantly diferent among household and neighbor contacts[odds ratios(OR)=1.4,95%confdence interval(CI):0.24-5.85]and for contacts of MB versus PB cases(OR=0.7,95%CI 0.26-2.0).Attack rates were not signifcantly diferent among household contacts of MB cases(0.32%,95%CI 0.07-0.94%)and PB cases(0.13%,95%CI 0.03-0.73)(χ^(2)=0.07,df=1,P=0.9)and neighbor contacts of MB cases(0.23%,0.1-0.46)and PB cases(0.48%,0.19-0.98)(χ^(2)=0.8,df=1,P=0.7).BCG vaccination with scar presence had a signifcant protective efect against leprosy(OR=0.42,0.22-0.81).Conclusions The most efective case identifcation approach here is contact tracing,followed by house-to-house visits in vulnerable populations and screening in prisons,although house-to-house visits are cheaper.The fndings suggest that hidden cases,recent transmission,and late diagnosis in the community exist and highlight the importance of early case detection.展开更多
Background:COVID-19 outbreaks in residential care homes for the elderly(RCHEs)and for persons with disability(RCHDs)have caused significant morbidity and mortality during 5th epidemic in Hong Kong.This article reviewe...Background:COVID-19 outbreaks in residential care homes for the elderly(RCHEs)and for persons with disability(RCHDs)have caused significant morbidity and mortality during 5th epidemic in Hong Kong.This article reviewed COVID-19 outbreaks situation and estimated the effectiveness of receiving at least two-dose of COVID-19 vaccine in preventing severe outcomes.Methods:To estimate attack rates and vaccination coverage,documentation on COVID-19 infection and their vaccination records of residential care homes(RCH)residents reported between December 31,2021 and May 31,2022 were reviewed,and infected cases were follow-up for 4 weeks for severe outcomes or death.Correlation between vaccination coverage against attack rate by types of homes was examined.Infected RCH residents with available information were included in the analysis of vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes and death.Results:COVID-19 vaccination coverage was low in RCHDs(median 0.46,IQR:0.24-0.76)and very low in RCHEs(median 0.08,IQR:0.00-0.19).Higher attack rates were recorded among RCHE residents(median 0.84,IQR:0.64-0.93)and higher case fatality rate(CFR:28.1%)than in RCHDs(median 0.58,IQR:0.31-0.84;CFR:3.9%).The attack rate decreased when vaccination coverage increased for both RCHEs(ρ=−0.131,p<0.001)and RCHDs(ρ=−0.333,p<0.001).Comparing with infected residents who were unvaccinated/vaccinated with one-dose,receiving at least two-dose was estimated to be effective in reducing severe outcomes in 31%and 36%of infected RCHE and RCHD residents respectively;with greater reduction in mortality among RCHD than RCHE residents(54%and 38%,respectively).Vaccine effectiveness of two-dose of BNT162b2 against severe outcomes and death are higher than that of CoronaVac.Conclusions:Increasing COVID-19 vaccination could have significant impact on reducing the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks in RCHs.At least two-dose of COVID-19 vaccine is still effective in reducing severe outcomes and death among infected residents in RCHs during Omicron epidemic.展开更多
Background: The transmission and fatal risk of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), an emerging infectious disease first discovered in China in 2009, still needed further quantification. This research a...Background: The transmission and fatal risk of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), an emerging infectious disease first discovered in China in 2009, still needed further quantification. This research aimed to analyze the SFTS clusters and assess the transmission and mortality risk for SFTS.Methods: Both epidemiological investigation and case reports regarding SFTS clusters in China during 2011-2021 were obtained from the Public Health Emergency Information Management System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Information System. The transmission risk was evaluated by using the secondary attack rate (SAR) and relative risk (RR). Mortality risk factors were analyzed using a logistic regression model.Results: There were 35 SFTS clusters during 2011-2021 involving 118 patients with a fatality rate of 22.0%. The number of clusters annually increased seasonally from April to September. The clusters mainly occurred in Anhui (16 clusters) and Shandong provinces (8 clusters). The SAR through contact with blood or bloody fluids was much higher than that through contact with non-bloody fluids (50.6% vs 3.0%;χ^(2) = 210.97,P < 0.05), with anRR of 16.61 [95% confidence interval (CI): 10.23-26.97]. There was a statistically significant difference in the SAR between exposure to the blood of a deceased person during burial preparation and exposure to the living patients’ blood (66.7% vs 34.5%;χ^(2)= 6.40,P < 0.05), with anRR of 1.93 (95%CI: 1.11-3.37). The mortality risk factors were a long interval from onset to diagnosis [odds ratio (OR)= 1.385), 95%CI: 1.083-1.772,P= 0.009) and advanced age (OR: 1.095, 95%CI: 1.031-1.163,P= 0.01).Conclusions: The SFTS clusters showed a high mortality rate and resulted in a high SAR. Contact with a bleeding corpse was associated with a higher infection risk, compared with contacting the blood from living patients. It is important to promote early detection and appropriate case management of patients with SFTS, as well as improved handling of their corpses, to prevent further transmission and mortality.展开更多
The network attack profit graph(NAPG)model and the attack profit path predication algorithm are presented herein to cover the shortage of considerations in attacker’s subjective factors based on existing network atta...The network attack profit graph(NAPG)model and the attack profit path predication algorithm are presented herein to cover the shortage of considerations in attacker’s subjective factors based on existing network attack path prediction methods.Firstly,the attack profit is introduced,with the attack profit matrix designed and the attack profit matrix generation algorithm given accordingly.Secondly,a path profit feasibility analysis algorithm is proposed to analyze the network feasibility of realizing profit of attack path.Finally,an opportunity profit path and an optimal profit path are introduced with the selection algorithm and the prediction algorithm designed for accurate prediction of the path.According to the experimental test,the network attack profit path predication algorithm is applicable for accurate prediction of the opportunity profit path and the optimal profit path.展开更多
文摘The measured relative rates of halophilic and protophilic attacks (k_X/k_H) indicate that the rates of halophilic attacks are comparable in magnitude to those of protophilic attacks (deprotonations).
基金partially supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China(HKU C7123-20G)。
文摘Background:The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic hit South America badly with multiple waves.Different COVID-19 variants have been storming across the region,leading to more severe infections and deaths even in places with high vaccination coverage.This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal variability of the COVID-19 pandemic and estimate the infection fatality rate(IFR),infection attack rate(IAR)and reproduction number(R0)for twelve most affected South American countries.Methods:We fit a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered(SEIR)-based model with a time-varying transmission rate to the reported COVID-19 deaths for the twelve South American countries with the highest mortalities.Most of the epidemiological datasets analysed in this work are retrieved from the disease surveillance systems by the World Health Organization,Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center and Our World in Data.We investigate the COVID-19 mortalities in these countries,which could represent the situation for the overall South American region.We employ COVID-19 dynamic model with-and-without vaccination considering time-varying flexible transmission rate to estimate IFR,IAR and R0 of COVID-19 for the South American countries.Results:We simulate the model in each scenario under suitable parameter settings and yield biologically reasonable estimates for IFR(varies between 0.303% and 0.723%),IAR(varies between 0.03 and 0.784)and R0(varies between 0.7 and 2.5)for the 12 South American countries.We observe that the severity,dynamical patterns of deaths and time-varying transmission rates among the countries are highly heterogeneous.Further analysis of the model with the effect of vaccination highlights that increasing the vaccination rate could help suppress the pandemic in South America.Conclusions:This study reveals possible reasons for the two waves of COVID-19 outbreaks in South America.We observed reductions in the transmission rate corresponding to each wave plausibly due to improvement in nonpharmaceutical interventions measures and human protective behavioral reaction to recent deaths.Thus,strategies coupling social distancing and vaccination could substantially suppress the mortality rate of COVID-19 in South America.
基金supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China(HKU C7123-20G).
文摘Objectives:Serological surveys were used to infer the infection attack rate in different populations.The sensitivity of the testing assay,Abbott,drops fast over time since infection which makes the serological data difficult to interpret.In this work,we aim to solve this issue.Methods:We collect longitudinal serological data of Abbott to construct a sensitive decay function.We use the reported COVID-19 deaths to infer the infections,and use the decay function to simulate the seroprevalence and match to the reported seroprevalence in 12 Indian cities.Results:Our model simulated seroprevalence matchs the reported seroprevalence in most of the 12 Indian cities.We obtain reasonable infection attack rate and infection fatality rate for most of the 12 Indian cities.Conclusions:Using both reported COVID-19 deaths data and serological survey data,we infer the infection attack rate and infection fatality rate with increased confidence.
文摘本刊曾经多次刊登文章盛赞百年老药阿斯匹林。去年第10期就载文称阿斯匹林能抗前列腺癌,今又消息文称,阿斯匹林能减少心脏病人的死亡率。百年老药.青春犹在,至今仍能让人们不断发现其新的功效!本文除了传递了有关阿斯匹林的新信息之外,以下观点,也让我们耳目一新: Even as we live and practice medicine in an era of high technology,we mustalways remember that widespread application of relatively low technology,efficacious(有效的;灵验的),and cost-effective(有成本效益的,值得花费的)therapies is often the way we help most of our patients and provide the greatestaggregate(集合的;聚合的)benefit for the broader population. 上句是否可以这样译: 即使我们生活、就医在一个高科技的时代,但是,我们仍必须一直牢记:科技含量相对较低却又广为应用的东西,其灵验而又具有成本效益的治疗常常是我们帮助大多数患者,为广大群众提供最大利益的途径。 上句的难点在于:如何理解provide the greatest aggregate benefit for thebroader population的主语。
文摘Background Nepal has achieved and sustained the elimination of leprosy as a public health problem since 2009,but 17 districts and 3 provinces with 41%(10,907,128)of Nepal’s population have yet to eliminate the disease.Pediatric cases and grade-2 disabilities(G2D)indicate recent transmission and late diagnosis,respectively,which necessitate active and early case detection.This operational research was performed to identify approaches best suited for early case detection,determine community-based leprosy epidemiology,and identify hidden leprosy cases early and respond with prompt treatment.Methods Active case detection was undertaken in two Nepali provinces with the greatest burden of leprosy,Madhesh Province(40%national cases)and Lumbini Province(18%)and at-risk prison populations in Madhesh,Lumbini and Bagmati provinces.Case detection was performed by(1)house-to-house visits among vulnerable populations(n=26,469);(2)contact examination and tracing(n=7608);in Madhesh and Lumbini Provinces and,(3)screening prison populations(n=4428)in Madhesh,Lumbini and Bagmati Provinces of Nepal.Per case direct medical and nonmedical costs for each approach were calculated.Results New case detection rates were highest for contact tracing(250),followed by house-to-house visits(102)and prison screening(45)per 100,000 population screened.However,the cost per case identifed was cheapest for house-to-house visits[Nepalese rupee(NPR)76,500/case],followed by contact tracing(NPR 90,286/case)and prison screening(NPR 298,300/case).House-to-house and contact tracing case paucibacillary/multibacillary(PB:MB)ratios were 59:41 and 68:32;female/male ratios 63:37 and 57:43;pediatric cases 11%in both approaches;and grade-2 disabilities(G2D)11%and 5%,respectively.Developing leprosy was not signifcantly diferent among household and neighbor contacts[odds ratios(OR)=1.4,95%confdence interval(CI):0.24-5.85]and for contacts of MB versus PB cases(OR=0.7,95%CI 0.26-2.0).Attack rates were not signifcantly diferent among household contacts of MB cases(0.32%,95%CI 0.07-0.94%)and PB cases(0.13%,95%CI 0.03-0.73)(χ^(2)=0.07,df=1,P=0.9)and neighbor contacts of MB cases(0.23%,0.1-0.46)and PB cases(0.48%,0.19-0.98)(χ^(2)=0.8,df=1,P=0.7).BCG vaccination with scar presence had a signifcant protective efect against leprosy(OR=0.42,0.22-0.81).Conclusions The most efective case identifcation approach here is contact tracing,followed by house-to-house visits in vulnerable populations and screening in prisons,although house-to-house visits are cheaper.The fndings suggest that hidden cases,recent transmission,and late diagnosis in the community exist and highlight the importance of early case detection.
文摘Background:COVID-19 outbreaks in residential care homes for the elderly(RCHEs)and for persons with disability(RCHDs)have caused significant morbidity and mortality during 5th epidemic in Hong Kong.This article reviewed COVID-19 outbreaks situation and estimated the effectiveness of receiving at least two-dose of COVID-19 vaccine in preventing severe outcomes.Methods:To estimate attack rates and vaccination coverage,documentation on COVID-19 infection and their vaccination records of residential care homes(RCH)residents reported between December 31,2021 and May 31,2022 were reviewed,and infected cases were follow-up for 4 weeks for severe outcomes or death.Correlation between vaccination coverage against attack rate by types of homes was examined.Infected RCH residents with available information were included in the analysis of vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes and death.Results:COVID-19 vaccination coverage was low in RCHDs(median 0.46,IQR:0.24-0.76)and very low in RCHEs(median 0.08,IQR:0.00-0.19).Higher attack rates were recorded among RCHE residents(median 0.84,IQR:0.64-0.93)and higher case fatality rate(CFR:28.1%)than in RCHDs(median 0.58,IQR:0.31-0.84;CFR:3.9%).The attack rate decreased when vaccination coverage increased for both RCHEs(ρ=−0.131,p<0.001)and RCHDs(ρ=−0.333,p<0.001).Comparing with infected residents who were unvaccinated/vaccinated with one-dose,receiving at least two-dose was estimated to be effective in reducing severe outcomes in 31%and 36%of infected RCHE and RCHD residents respectively;with greater reduction in mortality among RCHD than RCHE residents(54%and 38%,respectively).Vaccine effectiveness of two-dose of BNT162b2 against severe outcomes and death are higher than that of CoronaVac.Conclusions:Increasing COVID-19 vaccination could have significant impact on reducing the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks in RCHs.At least two-dose of COVID-19 vaccine is still effective in reducing severe outcomes and death among infected residents in RCHs during Omicron epidemic.
基金QC acknowledges the support provided by the National Science and Technology Major Project of China(2018ZX10101002-003-002)YZ and ZYS acknowledge the support provided by the Public Health Emergency Response Mechanism Operation Program of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(131031001000210001).
文摘Background: The transmission and fatal risk of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), an emerging infectious disease first discovered in China in 2009, still needed further quantification. This research aimed to analyze the SFTS clusters and assess the transmission and mortality risk for SFTS.Methods: Both epidemiological investigation and case reports regarding SFTS clusters in China during 2011-2021 were obtained from the Public Health Emergency Information Management System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Information System. The transmission risk was evaluated by using the secondary attack rate (SAR) and relative risk (RR). Mortality risk factors were analyzed using a logistic regression model.Results: There were 35 SFTS clusters during 2011-2021 involving 118 patients with a fatality rate of 22.0%. The number of clusters annually increased seasonally from April to September. The clusters mainly occurred in Anhui (16 clusters) and Shandong provinces (8 clusters). The SAR through contact with blood or bloody fluids was much higher than that through contact with non-bloody fluids (50.6% vs 3.0%;χ^(2) = 210.97,P < 0.05), with anRR of 16.61 [95% confidence interval (CI): 10.23-26.97]. There was a statistically significant difference in the SAR between exposure to the blood of a deceased person during burial preparation and exposure to the living patients’ blood (66.7% vs 34.5%;χ^(2)= 6.40,P < 0.05), with anRR of 1.93 (95%CI: 1.11-3.37). The mortality risk factors were a long interval from onset to diagnosis [odds ratio (OR)= 1.385), 95%CI: 1.083-1.772,P= 0.009) and advanced age (OR: 1.095, 95%CI: 1.031-1.163,P= 0.01).Conclusions: The SFTS clusters showed a high mortality rate and resulted in a high SAR. Contact with a bleeding corpse was associated with a higher infection risk, compared with contacting the blood from living patients. It is important to promote early detection and appropriate case management of patients with SFTS, as well as improved handling of their corpses, to prevent further transmission and mortality.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61802117)。
文摘The network attack profit graph(NAPG)model and the attack profit path predication algorithm are presented herein to cover the shortage of considerations in attacker’s subjective factors based on existing network attack path prediction methods.Firstly,the attack profit is introduced,with the attack profit matrix designed and the attack profit matrix generation algorithm given accordingly.Secondly,a path profit feasibility analysis algorithm is proposed to analyze the network feasibility of realizing profit of attack path.Finally,an opportunity profit path and an optimal profit path are introduced with the selection algorithm and the prediction algorithm designed for accurate prediction of the path.According to the experimental test,the network attack profit path predication algorithm is applicable for accurate prediction of the opportunity profit path and the optimal profit path.